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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun March 26th, 2023

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Smile At the Storm - 9-5 5 Irish Halo - 6-1 3 Niff - 5-1

Not a ton of pace in this spot to open the day as 4-SMILE AT THE STORM has the potential to wire this field. She battled the pace in her last and ran on late. Centeno is riding well and should be able to control things in here. 5-IRISH HALO rated and ran on last in that same race. The added 16th should  benefit her as she could close into the gimmicks underneath. 3-NIFF seems to be the other with potential to show speed. She tried tougher without success in her first start off the claim and may improve with the drop back down in class.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Ministry of Art - 5-2 3 Uncle Nick - 2-1 4 Powerful Man - 8-1

The fitness edge in here goes to 7-MINISTRY OF ART as he ran a decent race at this level and distance last out. He has tactical speed and with a couple to show some early speed it should allow for him to tuck in behind and run on in the lane. 3-UNCLE NICK is one of those with early speed as he makes his second start of the meet. His last start was a race where numerous horses set insane early fractions but that was also while facing much better. The class drop could turn things around today. 4-POWERFUL MAN has a couple of works toward the return as he will need some pace to chase. If things are swift upfront early he should be able to come running in the lane.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Superstar Diva - 4-1 6 Foggy Kitten - 8-5 5 Cookin Roses - 3-1

With only two in here with early speed that leaves some concern as both seem to be committed to the front but if only one between Foggy Kitten and Cookin Roses go, the race may be over. If both are sent away then 7-SUPERSTAR DIVA could get a good pace setup ahead of her. She has run well over the track and shouldn't be too far behind the leaders. She makes her first start of the meet and may sneak off at a decent price. 6-FOGGY KITTEN never got a breather last time as she was sent for the front and faced a pace battle every step of the way.  She should be forwardly placed once again but not sure if she can beat Cookin Roses to the top. 5-COOKIN ROSES is an all or nothing horse. She will get sent away early and may be the fastest to the front. If she clears, she can wire the field but if she faces early pressure she could fold in the lane as well.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 River Cactus - 9-2 2 Barefootbootlegger - 5-2 4 My Guitar - 7-2

This is an odd race with horses coming from some different spots into here. Hoping back class gives a chance to 5-RIVER CACTUS as at one time he was very competitive against much better. He is 9 now but is back in the Manley barn. Maybe the time off followed by three works will have him ready to pop at a decent price. 2-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER takes a class drop off his final start of the year but he was competitive at this level two back. He has three works as well toward the return and I like that Santiago is in the saddle today. 4-MY GUITAR has a little but of tactical speed in a race that doesn't have a ton of pace. He ran well in the slop here in his last and will likely get a good stalking trip once again.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Triple Chrome - 3-1 1 Cindy's G Man - 5-2 6 C F V Red Nova - 6-1

Hard to overlook anything from the Vanden Berg barn right now as everything seems to be running well. 4-TRIPLE CHROME ran a game race in his first start of the meet and steps up in class off the score. He should be able to settle just off the early lead, which may be contested, and get the jump on the closers in the lane. 1-CINDY'S G MAN is one of those with speed as he will be winging it from the inside today. The concern is that THE LAST FACT also has speed and will be just to his outside. If these two duke it out early, we may not see either in the lane. 6-C F V RED NOVA has to hope for that pace to chase as he will be sitting back early and looing to run on in the lane. He closed some ground too late in his last after a poor break and should benefit from the added 1/8 of a mile in here.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Silver Chiller - 5-1 7 Dash to the Cash - 5-2 3 Inside the Circle - 9-2

Tough spot to kick off the Late Pick 4 as the top two contenders in here have had numerous chances to break their maiden. 6-SILVER CHILLER debuts for trainer Ida Spagnola, who has had some talented youngsters in the last couple of years. This one is working well toward the debut and gets Lasix for this start as he may be able to show some speed in a race that is lacking of early pace. 7-DASH TO THE CASH will welcome the added distance off his last as he figures to settle early and run on in the lane. He will need pace to chase but figures to be a factor in the final 16th. 3-INSIDE THE CIRCLE is another that is overdue for a victory as he is winless from 22 career starts. That being said, he has found the board 13 times on his career and should be forwardly placed in here. He may possibly be able to rate close and hang around for a share late.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:12 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Hurts So Bad - 3-1 2 Valiantly Discreet - 5-2 6 Tea With Lemon - 6-1

A group that faced off recently comes back as 7-HURTS SO BAD is the one that just missed in that spot. He rated just off the pace early before running on in the stretch, only to have to shift course late, likely causing him the win. He should be able to keep in the clear from the outside draw and get the jump on the closers in here. 2-VALIANTLY DISCREET is one of a few with speed in this spot. He was sent in his last but was unable to hold on late. He could face some pressure upfront in here but a recent speed bias on the track means you can't toss him out. 6-TEA WITH LEMON is intriguing as he steps up off a maiden score in his last. He will also benefit if the pace is contested upfront as he could rally late at a price.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Long Tall Woman - 8-5 1 Lucy's Lookin Left - 9-2 8 Apollo U Anywhere - 5-1

One of the best rides of the early portion of this meet came from Abel Lezcano aboard 6-LONG TALL WOMAN last time out. A mare that figured to show speed, she got away nearly last in the short sprint in here last. Lezcano didn't panic, instead waiting behind horses while saving some ground through the turn. He split horses at the top of the lane and got up in the shadow of the wire. 1-LUCY's LOOKIN LEFT comes out of that same race last time out as she also had to try to close from the back. He running style does typically leave her off the pace but maybe she gets enough speed to close into in here. 8-APOLLO U ANYWHERE is one with speed as she may look to clear from the outside. She battled in her last and was one that was caught nearing the wire by LONG TALL WOMAN. All six of her wins have come here at Hawthorne as she should be on the gas early once again.