Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 CAIRO SUMMER will repeat a winning form cycle pattern coming back to Hawthorne for Sanchez. This pattern of two routes to a sprint was used back on September 23^rd resulting in a win (B OptixGRADE/71 OptixFIG clearing the N2 claiming level. A similar pattern was used going into the December 31^st race, a result that did not turn out the win, though did show a move forward (making a MOVE) in a trip challenged by the outside post and full field on the day. 

#3 UNCLE NICK with the massive class drop should handle this field and on his best day stands out over this group. With that said, a massive drop can have concerns attached especially when combined with declining form, the pairing here and expected to be a shorter price in this field.

#4 POWERFUL MAN could look to take advantage in this case and with some buried form returning to the route distance and conditions where he left off on December 10^th. In that race he projected to IMPROVE in the second start off the layoff with the added ground and following the trip (and OptixNOTE shown here in the Past 3 Runlines) from November 20^th. #2 CHOCOLATE BUNNY has shown strong early speed and should hold fitness returning to make his second start back off the layoff. This second off pattern has been successful in the past and has been the timing for CHOCOLATE BUNNY to run his peak effort. 

#7 SUPERSTAR DIVA is tough to ignore looking at https://hawthorneracecourse.com/event/optixeq-plots/2023-03-26/ OptixPLOT (and as a potential non-favorite according to the morning line) as a strong Square tracking right off the projected pacesetters (and top two morning line assigned favorites) #5 COOKIN ROSES and #6 FOGGY KITTEN, Quad I Circles. 

This race could go through the Haran pair of #2 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER and #3 NOT VERY GENTLE two runners that fit on par in terms of figures and class. This is class relief for both running in this time restricted claiming event as they return from the layoff.

They will give up recency to #6 WILLING TO SPEED, a runner that should be sitting on a top effort in this second start back off the layoff, a pattern that has presented a move forward for this one in the past. He is expected to show an improved effort today exiting the March 12^th common race, a race that was won on the “lone” lead.

#6 C F V RED NOVA will make their second start of the meet and expected improvement in this spot. Going back to March 9^th, they were making their first start back in 69-days and broke slow (SLOG) not something common for this horse and left with too much to overcome at the shorter 5f distance though to their credit showed run especially late (GALLOP+) and out past the wire. They will wheel right back to a similar level, a level where they fit to compete as a contender with added ground and the fitness on their side. Their ability to show some tactical and positional speed should allow for a stalk and pounce on the Quad I group and the jump on closers (Quad IV runners) #5 MON AMI FUZZIE and #7 SPALDING STROLL. 

Tough to hold a lot of confidence in the group that has come up short at this Special Weight level (or at the maiden claiming level) in the past, though those runners make up the bulk of this field. #7 DASH TO THE CASH has the edge of that set of “experienced” horses and one that has been the most competitive, consistent number wise and holds fitness/conditioning coming into this race as the second start back off the layoff. 

With that noted a “new” face could jump up in this spot. Both first time starters: #2 FLYING CRICKET and #6 SILVER CHILLER look to have some run based on their published works and intent with the timing of those drills and showing up to make their debut in the first part of the meet. #5 MEDAL KING is not a first time starter though can be treated similarly here as this will be just his second start and the debut 578-days ago. As far as the debut back at Arlington Park, MEDAL KING did show some run in spots, something not shown necessarily in the running line and finishing position.

The “Yellow” (caution) PlotFit is noted here as #2 VALIANTLY DISCREET could appear to hold a pace advantage based on the position clear as a Quad I Square. They are listed as the morning line favorite for this race and require that pace advantage as well as a top effort to win at this level. #1 FAITHFUL KING is given a mention as they could end up shorter than the morning line with Vanden Berg sending out live runners, something that has not gone unnoticed from the public. #7 HURTS SO BAD is logical coming back from the B OptixGRADE effort at this level back March 5^th. 

#3 VERRAZANOINTHESKY is the wild card returning to Hawthorne. He has a pair of local starts going back to his juvenile/sophomore season those races here in Illinois followed up with a 441-day layoff before returning last August. His form coming back off the layoff last summer and to the dirt at one turn stack up strongly on par with today’s group and for the level.

#6 LONG TALL WOMAN is a tough horse and has the “horse to beat” qualities coming back to this level looking to pair up wins and extend the current three race win streak. Maintaining form, it will take a top effort from one of the others and a trip to get her beat. #5 AVASARALA had that potential going back to March 5^th, though could have lost her race before it started acting up, fractious in the GATE and giving up her tactical (Quad I advantage) through a passive (TACTIC-) ride. The connections and Centeno coming right back for this race is a positive sign and likely to see her more assertively ridden today looking to play the upset role. 

#1 LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT also returns from that March 5^th common race where she was able to SAVED ground and move up late and projects to show a similar run here today. As far as class both #2 ON A TOUR and #3 GOOD MONGOLIA fit at this level, though distance wise at the sprint, is shorter than their ideal. The distance could also be less than ideal for #7 SEAWARD, though she has been able to compete at a similar sprint distance and class level and could be overlooked here to outrun her odds. 

#4 ONASA should present as the controlling (Quad I Square) speed and with a class and conditioning edge exiting the March 9^th race in this second start off the layoff. #3 LUCKY AIN’T ENOUGH earned a follow from the effort back on November 11^th at the Fair Grounds from the trip breaking slow/SLOG and making a WIDE MOVE with visuals to suggest IMPROVE is possible.

#2 GOLD SMOKE showed progression with his return from the layoff here back in December and intention to run at this level, surface and distance noting their were entered in the March 9^th Special Weight event though unable to compete as a vet scratch that day with the issue likely minor as they are right back to the entries and with a published work on March 20^th at Fan Duel.