Handicapper Tips & Picks

This race could go through #6 TIMEHASCOME and one expects to be bet as that type of horse making their local debut, the circuit change and the live connections with Vanden Berg/Emigh. Their presence in this race makes it tougher to try and get creative with the runners that have had plenty of experience with #2 KING ZION (likely to be more assertively handled today) and #5 UNCLE DICK as they have proven who they are at this point. #4 ELECTRIC CHANGE coming off the place finish and improved number on March 16^th figures to be the “alternative” in this race and a shift in odds from the 16-1 last month. 

#1 DERRICKS MEDALLION is still the unproven runner in this field. This will be their first start at a route distance and just second start on this circuit where a move forward if there is to be one, this would be the time and longer odds to make that case. Heading into the March 9^th race it was noted that the Gulfstream February 8^th race was a productive event with improving runners and two next out winners and another that has won since.

Looking at the pace scenario, morning line favorite #5 WHERETHEMONEYWENT makes her run from off the pace and while there is some Contention (Sun) the SpeedRate (OptixPLOT) is on the lower end that could have her compromised in terms of trip. That creates some value and opportunities for others. The Plot position is favorable for #2 SNOOTY however the shape as a Large Circle does create some pause. In this case, it should be noted “trips” from last year impacting that shape including but not limited to the EX – EXCUSE for SNOOTY lunging (TROUBLES+) out of the gate on December 17^th and taken out of her running style on the day. She has been freshened since that race and for this event by Watkins, a barn that has started out live this meet. 

Trainer Brian Cook has also started out of the meet with solid numbers for this outfit and will send out a pair in this race. #1 FIRST SQUADRON could receive attention following up the figures and win on March 23^rd, though that effort appeared taxing/HARD and the quick turnaround in this case is not ideal. Her stablemate #4 KITTEN ROCKS moves up in today’s race shape from a Plot perspective. That could extend further to her form cycle in her second start of the meet and coming off a subtle trip two weeks ago with the WEATHER conditions and hopping at the start (SLOG) after becoming restless in the GATE.

Going back to the Plot, there is not much of a difference between #6 JOLIE RULER and #7 PRANCIPANTS to justify the shift in odds creating value on the latter. 

This is a tricky event and one that has potential for a price. That analysis started with morning line favorite #3 GATE CREW one that will show up here capable and holding a class edge on the drop that makes them logical in this race from that aspect. The value overall creates some concerns in that role while again, capable. 

The race shape is part of the puzzle and a pace scenario that could appear more heated (29 SpeedRate) to offset the Snowflake Contention given over half the field above the Par Line and to the left of the Y-Axis. That creates a scenario to upgrade the Quad IV Runners, #2 PINBALLER and #7 EMPTY HOLSTER as well as #5 FLASHY RICHIE, a longer shot horse in this race and one that might not be as “longshot” given this dynamic to show up in the mix at a price. 

The pace scenario for Race 4 is a lot like Race 3, a heated pace with a higher Contention (Sun) rating and with all the horses in this field sharing the E/EP RunStyle. #5 ALPINE GHOST is one of the EP runners, though one that has been able to take up the P role and positioned in Quad II/IV today is likely to land in that role. That could further be aided by Emigh taking over and guided ALPINE GHOST with that trip to win here back on December 31^st. 

Starting with the established #7 LOTTA ROSES her races to date make her the one to beat transferring that form to this circuit and with the edge on recency and proven around two turns. 

#5 UNBRIDLED ANNSLEY has the benefit of recency and even class relief as she shows up here from the races this season at the Fair Grounds. With the change in circuit will come with the change in distance as she makes her route debut and will be tested to show stamina and has that unknown here. #3 PRADA’S MIRACLE carries some upside from her races last year against Special Weight company and should move up returning for Block in for the maiden claiming tag. That class drop should also benefit #6 LUNARCHY keying off the visuals (DROP) noted from her debut on March 16^th. The class change is more of a lateral move for #8 HOLD HER HOSTAGE exiting the statebred event on March 12^th – a race that was run under poor WEATHER conditions in the rain/snow and the race outcome by the pacesetters finishing 1-2. 

Another tough race with many lightly raced sophomore fillies showing up from different circuits, layoffs and runners that have shown a similar running style. The most established runner, #6 FLAMMAND could take advantage with the advantages on current form, class relief and one that has at times shown the ability to pass horses. #1 SPECIALIZIN was claimed out of her debut last June and has been off since. She shows a series of works returning from the layoff though also some gaps in that sequence. Her stablemate #2 MOVE IT BABY will also return from the layoff here with just the lone published work and comes into this race with the surface switch in a dirt debut. 

#3 STORMY EMPIRE figures as the “most logical” runner in this field with proven allowance form and figures that stack up on par. With that said, she has come up short at this level and done so without excuse and even when having things, her own way. #9 JOURNEYIST carries the most upside and while she will be required to step up here and race in against open company, the time for her is right in this second start off the layoff, a subtle trip back on March 12^th and picking up Lasix to suggest further intent. Boyce can also show up live with multiple runners on a card which is noted as the barn sends out DOMINQUE in Race 8. 

The March 12^th Special Weight race is a common event many in here will return from and could see #2 CANTOO overlooked given the running line and finishing position – a sneaky BTL effort. She had issues out of the gate (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) before making a strong CLOSE down the center of the track and finishing in a blanket for the minors alongside many in this field earning the similar B- OptixGRADE. Her form has been consistent here at Hawthorne keying off the statebred stakes race (B- OptixGRADE) and holding a subtle class edge with the Special Weight events and efforts in open company along with the most recent effort. 

#6 DOMINQUE could also present some upside in this second start off the layoff and in statebred company. Intent could be in play expecting more from her on debut when she was bet down to the race favorite from the 8-1 morning line despite showing up in open company and with the far outside post in a full field of 12 runners. Intent could again be in play for this second start of the season returning with the blinkers on, a rider change and showing a solid 5f move since the return race last month. 

First time starter #1 HIP HOP EMMY is also deserving of a mention going out for capable connections and appears to have some intent for this spot and for this meet. She had some setbacks last year making it to the races and lands here early in the meet with the steady series of works.