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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu April 6th, 2023

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Scrape - 3-1 4 Short Straw - 2-1 1 Evie Jean - 6-1

Really not a ton in here along the lines of early speed. I'm thinking 3-SCRAPE has a shot to contend as she has faced tougher in her first three starts and ships in for a barn that has had success this meet. She's working consistently toward her return and should be ready. 4-SHORT STRAW debuts in here for a barn that is off to a hot start. She gets Lasix for the debut and comes in off a decent gate drill. Let's see what kind of action she takes. 1-EVIE JEAN has raced ok in her first two starts of the meet. I liked her on opening day as she chased and finished third in that spot. There looks to be others in here with more early speed but she should be able to rate mid-pack and run on in the lane.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Strike Price - 5-1 6 Wildwood's Warrior - 2-1 3 Awesome Willy - 3-1

Despite the shorter field there looks to be a decent amount of pace in this race which could set things up for 1-STRIKE PRICE. He appears fit off recent starts over the poly in Kentucky and posted a good drill here back at the start of March. If the speed does hook up, look for him to save ground and run on in the lane. 6-WILDWOOD'S WARRIOR comes off races in Arkansas against a bit better company. His two best races have come over this Hawthorne strip and he has shown speed in both of those starts. 3-AWESOME WILLY is the second Becker in here as he also figures to be close early.  He wired the field in his maiden score last out and will just need to avoid a pace battle today to contend once again.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Birdie Be Gone - 3-1 6 Palace Magic - 5-2 3 Go Stormin Girl - 7-2

Anyone in here can win this race as I gave the nod to 5-BIRDIE BE GONE. She has worked consistently toward her return and looks to have tactical speed in a race that doesn't have a ton of early pace. She may be gearing up for a summer in Minnesota but can't be dismissed as this barn typically has theirs ready off the layoff. 6-PALACE MAGIC has run a pair of good races this meet, just missing at this level last out. Her record over the track is solid as she figures to rate closest to the early pace in this race today. That pace looks to come from 3-GO STORMIN GIRL as she won at this level here last fall. Her last two starts have come against much tougher and she drops back down to a level where she figures to make the top early. She's 12/19 ITM at Hawthorne which is a bonus as well.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Keen Response - 7-2 5 Rip It Ryan - 6-1 4 Brody's Fly - 9-5

Curious as to how the pace will play out in here as there are a few that could go early but none of these are truly committed to the front. Went to 1-KEEN RESPONSE as he seems to put in the most consistent efforts of any in this field. He was defeated by Option four races back (who is also in this field) but he had a terrible trip that day. He came back and won his next start before taking on tougher in his two most recent races. He's back to a level where he should be very competitive today. 5-RIP IT RYAN ran a good race at this level in his last despite being hung a bit wide in that spot. He's winless over the track but has found the board in half of his 12 Hawthorne starts. I expect him to sit mid-pack early here and move forwardly in the lane. 4-BRODY'S FLY comes in from Kentucky after being claimed two starts back. He did try to step up off the claim in his last but didn't have much success. He fits well here and should be forwardly placed today.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
9 Magic Beauty - 9-2 8 Olive's Candy - 5-2 7 Sleepy Cat - 5-1

While on paper it doesn't appear that 9-MAGIC BEAUTY was more than a runner-up who was well back in her last, take into regard that the winner of that race, Mendrel nearly set a track record in her debut and has since been sold for six figures off that start. Magic Beauty was able to chase into the lane in that spot and never really gave in as despite a bit of a wide trip she ran on late for place. 8-OLIVE'S CANDY comes in off the claim as she shortens up a bit in here. She was well intended in her debut as she was sent off at 9-2 against MSW company but that may have been as much as players betting the barn (Cox) in that spot. A game effort in her last, followed by the claim, has her well placed it would appear today. 7-SLEEPY CAT debuts for Robertson after spending the winter in New Orleans. The Illinois-bred first timer gets Lasix for this race and Three Hour Nap babies always seem to run well at Hawthorne.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Forrest City - 8-1 6 Baseball Politics - 4-1 10 Comiskey Park - 3-1

A really good race from a betting perspective as well as with how competitive this field is. 7-FORREST CITY faced many of these last out and was left with too much to try to overcome after a brutal start. With a clean trip today, along with the added distance, he figures to rate much closer early and contend into the lane. Perfect timing at the season just got underway with 6-BASEBALL POLITICS and 10-COMISKEY PARK both racing back. Baseball Politics gets the better of the post draws here as he has tactical speed and may even get sent away early as we welcome bug girl Hannah Leahey into the Hawthorne jock's quarters. He was game in his last and will be a factor once again, especially if the track is holding speed. Comiskey Park always seems to run competitively but with five runner-up efforts from his last seven races at this level you have to wonder if he will run by late. Look for him to be sent for position early from the gate and let's see if he can clear.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Global Empire - 6-1 5 Asti Sky - 8-1 3 High Brow - 7-2

This is a really difficult race as there appears to be a decent amount of pace in here. I really liked how 7-GLOBAL EMPIRE battled on late last out ass he wasn't given much consideration in that race, being sent off at 32-1 in the six horse field. Speed held well that day and he was still able to run on in the lane. He's clearly bred to handle the two turns and may just be coming into his own. Every time I overlook 5-ASTI SKY, he just up and runs a big race. I think he's a better horse at two turns and dismissed him last out. He got away extremely well in that spot and ended up winning the 5 1/2 furlong sprint. He has run well at Hawthorne but will need to avoid racing into a pace battle today. 3-HIGH BROW has never run worse than second in seven starts over the track. He's another that should be too far out of it early but has also shown the ability to rate and run on late if others do go upfront.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 6:06 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 D'archer - 6-1 9 Easter Music - 7-2 5 Fort Ridge - 8-1

6-D'ARCHER returns to make his second start of the meet as he comes in off a game effort last out. After breaking through the gate prior to the start of that race he was reloaded and still ran on late. There looks to be enough pace in here to chase as he should be able to settle in the second flight early and run on in the lane. 9-EASTER MUSIC loves this Hawthorne strip, posting six wins and hitting the board in 11/19 starts over the track. He makes his first start of the year but has three works toward the return and should be ready today. 5-FORT RIDGE is going to need pace to chase but he may find enough of it in this spot. He also makes his first start of the meet as he comes in with a pair of drills. Half of his ten career victories have come at Hawthorne as he should sneak away at a bit of a price.