Handicapper Tips & Picks

Starting the assessment with morning line favorite, #4 SHORT STRAW going out for a live Vanden Berg barn and a barn that has had some recent success with first time starters. Most of those runners as juveniles and while capable overall the shorter price as projected could create value elsewhere. The other first time starter #7 HURRYUPANDBYE will look to be the second winner this meet for Witthauer (Raceday Attire, paying $40.20 on Sunday) off a steady work tab and could suggest positive intent with the current trend.

As far as the runners with experience; #2 STRONGENOUGHSTORM must improve, though today appears the time should that occur in the second start off the layoff and second start at this lower maiden claiming level. #6 BUMPER GIRL has recorded some of the higher figures in this field, numbers that sit right in line with #1 EVIE JEAN and the less exposed of that pair. #3 SCRAPE is another that could just find the changes and this circuit what she needs to compete, though overall lacks an edge, has the repetitive layoff lines to justify a short price.

#5 YOU’RE A DANDY is also a tough read. She is one of the "experienced" set, however most of her races to date were recorded as a juvenile and at a higher level in Kentucky with changes in surface/distance to "muddy" the form. That is noted as she has just the lone sprint on the fast dirt being her debut and can make a case in this race looking for that “new face” in this field. 

Looking at OptixFIG this field is evenly matched, and pace could present the prime handicapping factor keying to the Plot (race shape) with the Sun Contention and honest 34 SpeedRate. Quad I/Left of Y-Axis shows Contention and with half of the field above the Surface/Distance Par Line. That scenario could present #6 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR compromised with trip and in addition to form noting a vet scratch at the $6250k level here from back on March 19^th. Becker also sends out #3 AWESOME WILLY coming off a front running maiden win last month, though going back to last season, showed the ability to rate and could take up that effective Run Style here.

Trainer Manny Perez will also be represented by a pair with front runner #2 STORM’S REFLECTION (Quad I) and #5 DREAM ISLAND returning to make a seasonal debut with form and a favorable stalking (Quad IV) RunStyle for today’s dynamic. #1 STRIKE PRICE could look for a similar stalking trip and could even present upside coming off an EX – EXCUSE back on March 17^th at Turfway Park as they look to transfer their form to the dirt.

#4 KEEP ATTACKING is a little softer for the level as a prime contender, though has form that fits with this group as one that could find themselves in the right spot (trip) for a minor share. 

Trainer Brian Cook has started out the meet strong and returns in this spot with #3 GO STORMIN GIRL. She will make her second start of the season coming back from a TROUBLE trip on March 5^th and was also entered at this level on March 19^th (Vet scratch) suggesting overall intent. #6 PALACE MAGIC returns from that March 19^th race showing up with a BTL effort finishing together at the wire with the pacesetting (FLOW) winner, April’s Gem in a race shape that did not have any change in running order from start to finish. 

#4 RANK AND FILE also found legit TROUBLE+ last week (3/30) though will be class tested in this spot though carries overall upside off that trip and from what is shown on her recent run lines, speed figures and finishing positions. #5 BIRDIE BE GONE also belongs in the conversation for this race as she returns from the layoff and fits on her best day with steady works and running here protected from the claiming tag. Trip wise she could also find the right race shape for her RunStyle as a Quad I Square and look for first run on her main rivals and stronger finishing ability than “Circles” #1 MEDWAY QUEEN and #2 SAMARITA. 

Berndt could hold a back-to-back pace advantage (Standard OptixPLOT/Quad I) threat with #8 OPTION returning from the layoff and showing up here as the potential controlling speed. As far as the morning line favorite, #4 BRODY’S FLY tough to know the intent (if any) first off the claim and against winners on February 24^th as they stepped up in class, claiming tag and were not asked (NO_PUSH) for run on the day and could easily see improvement here. 

#1 KEEN RESPONSE was favored under similar conditions here on March 19^th however they became very fractious in the GATE, lost their footing to fall to the ground and ultimately scratched. Emigh was aboard that day and naturally shifts to BRODY’S FLY for this race. #5 RIP IT RYAN also ran in the March 19^th event with his share of GATE issues on that day as well and showed run making a WIDE MOVE for show while the pacesetters finished 1-2 on a day that favored horses forwardly placed due to colder weather temperatures and winds with #6 WHERE’S LUCKY right alongside for the minors. 

In addition to WHERE’S LUCKY, Perez will return with #2 DARE GOES DA DEVIL one that has some buried form that makes him competitive with a top effort and could see that in this second start back off the layoff (and even with an off-track) for this race. Intent with the rider change could also be in play keying back to December 4th from the WIDE trip behind an open length pacesetting winner. 

#1 CLIMB TO GLORY could get overlooked in this race off the running lines and finishing positions from her two starts out at Turfway Park. She debuted in a tougher spot going a route on debut, a common race with #8 OLIVE’S CANDY. Things only became tougher on March 2^nd for CLIMB TO GLORY catching a strong field for the level on March 2^nd. CLIMB TO GLORY has natural speed that does not show up “on paper” and likely to be closer to the pace today with the changes landing on this circuit and under Mojica.

Fellow IA-bred, #6 FIT AND FAMOUS will debut here for Tracy Tanner, a barn that has sent out live runners all season and many with Centeno aboard. That trend, series of works/bullets, could have another live runner and at the same time a shorter number than the morning line suggests. Robertson also with a solid record with debuting runners sends out IL-bred, #7 SLEEPY CAT, a filly that was training here last year though has spent the year getting race ready out at the Fair Grounds. Some of the others in this field are also IL-Bred runners class tested here again against open. #9 MAGIC BEAUTY could find default attention and coming off the place finish, a FLOW aided run for place on March 16^th earning the same B- OptixGRADE as #4 BLAZE BEAUTY. 

A full field of N1X allowance runners contesting the sprint, 6f distance with many directions to go. #3 ON K P has some buried form and early speed (Quad I) at this allowance level and from this year exiting the races at Turfway Park. Granted he was racing in for the $30k tag, the purse and par is a lateral move returning to Hawthorne. The same class angle applies to #11 BLUE NORTHER with buried form and should be overlooked here for the connections and off the claim, where price compensation should be found and is required. 

#8 FORREST CITY wheels right back from the March 16^th race where he lost his footing (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and unable to show the early speed he is capable of and likely to show more tactical speed today with intent wheeling back for this race. #2 BEEALEA was entered in that March 16^th common race though Boyce deciding (trainer scratch) to wait for this spot and the added ground that certainly benefit the run style and preference for this individual. That race is noted with both #10 COMISKEY PARK and #6 BASEBALL POLITICS (morning line favorites) returning here and runners that hold established form, though at the same time are the types that tend to need everything in their favor (including catching the right field) to get the win. 

#10 REINVESTMENT RISK is no doubt the class of the field and strong number wise landing in this spot first off the purchase by Klopp. He was purchased at the Keeneland sale in January and appears to have the season ahead for him at HS Indy for Klopp and their main ownership group. Given the timing and placement here they could also be race ready and this spot to regain some confidence and a piece of their “investment” in this allowance event. 

#7 GOLDEN HORNET was a vet scratch from the OC $62.5k allowance just last week (3/30) though that issue appears minor as they wheel right back to the entries and for this race. His form fits at this level and with more time between starts which could have been a factor on the quick 15-day turnaround on March 12^th. Winebaugh has used the turf-to-dirt move twice with #4 BOCA BOY the move resulting in wins on both occasions and will look to make today 3-for-3 coming in from the turf sprint last month at Gulfstream Park.

The other “Squares” in this field #2 TETSU, #6 KHOZAN’S VALENTINE and #8 HUEY ATTACK require a lot of racing luck and a top effort to win, though capable given their form and run style for a minor share. 

#6 SUPER WISE is kept on the radar and can be given an upgrade making their debut on this circuit and with the same connections sending out open length winner, Unbridled Annsley, a Fair Grounds shipper to score dominantly here last Sunday, April 2^nd. 

The “Fire” Contention and honest 38 SpeedRate present a pace dynamic to set up a runner from just off the pace. #2 PISTOL BOX has the strongest (Big Square) late kick, though position deeper in Quad IV, could be left with too much to do late and requires fair odds. The first run on Quad I, sits with #3 HIGH BROW and #7 GLOBAL EMPIRE both runners returning from solid efforts in their seasonal debut as shown in the Past 3 Runlines. Tactically, #4 MOMENT has been able to “stalk and pounce” and that could be the trip they are going to shift to today coming back from the place finish on March 16^th with a rider change to Hernandez. 

The “Green” PlotFit (OptixPLOT) in play for the finale and a scenario where #4 CHOPPER projects to show early speed (Quad I above Par Line) once again and will look to wire the field. In addition, Cook will also return with #1 DEVIL’S RULE looking to improve once again and comes back for this third start of the season with an improving pattern and back numbers that stack up on par. Their form and RunStyle could get overlooked and is shown on the Plot in line with rivals #6 D’ARCHER, #8 RISKY BOY and #9 EASTER MUSIC – likely shorter priced of the group looking for that first run on CHOPPER (Circle) and #2 TAKE ME UP BRADY. The change in post for #10 ONE WAY HOME could also have them closer to the pace today where trip again comes into play with the draw though in good hands with Ortiz, a rider that has confidence/success with this horse. 

#7 BOOM FIVE THOUSAND is a legit longshot in this race though has form on their best day and even some early speed that could have them competitive in today’s race with another move forward keying off a subtle progressive pattern in the third start off the layoff.