Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 LUTION makes their return to Hawthorne and regrouped from the December races last year with TROUBLE that is tough to see on the run lines alone. The TROUBLE began on their debut, a sneaky good CLOSE in the fourth place finish though after the wire, the rider lost control and the two crashed hard into the inner rail losing the rider and the contact appeared to affect the horse returning (OUCHY) on December 30^th. Their figure from the January 18^th race at Turfway Park lines up number wise to their debut figure while against open company and with some issues at the start. 

Figure wise LUTION is right in line with others in this field including #3 MISS MIA one that will find a subtle class change returning to statebred company and first start in for the tag against fellow IL-bred runners.

#2 TENSE and #6 JEMEZ FALLS hold form at today’s level keying off the March 12^th common race both runners earning a B- OptixGRADE that day and should note the WEATHER conditions on the day that worsened leading up to and during the race. The class change is in play for #5 MISS HIGH N MIGHTY though she has come up short when running for $5k back in 2021 and seems to run her higher figures on the turf.

#7 SLEEPY CAT is cross entered in a maiden race on the Thursday card and worth following where they decide to run. 

The “Fire” Contention (most of the field in or around Quad I) and higher 86 SpeedRate (most of the field above the ParLine should set up a trip for the closing #3 WEEKEND PASS. As an individual she fits here going back to a sneaky good BTL race back on December 11^th and carries fitness and projected improvement from the March 16^th race and 6^th place finish off the TACTIC- (rider change today) when held up off the pace and ran on late with a solid GALLOP+ out behind the open length, LONE, pacesetting winner, She’s A Big Star. 

#1 AUNT STELLA might have been rushed to race here on March 16^th the 9-day turnaround and mentally not in the game acting up in GATE. She has been given the 24-day freshening and change in distance to assist here as well as a race shape (Surface/Distance Quad I Square) upgrade over Circles #3 FOGGY KITTEN and #4 PRINCESS STELLA and many others in this field that have the tendency to break slow/SLOG and positioned in Quad IV. 

#8 SINGING ALLI is one of those Quad IV runners though does not show the pattern of gate issues and could be moving forward into this race with progressive OptixFIG and even some intent with a rider change as Orlando Mojica takes over today. 

#8 ACT OF BOB returns in this spot off the 313-day layoff and while he will be required to return to form, his early speed and controlling speed (Quad I Square) could make him tough to contend with early and run down late. 

The edge in recency should benefit #7 TIME HEIST from what appeared a PREP on March 23^rd and shows up for Young with the class drop not just from that race but from his races at the higher level here last season. Those advantages could be the edge (and even value) over #2 EASTER MUSIC back from the layoff here and could grab attention with the “name play” today. #4 RESTORING HOPE wheels right back from the race just 10-days ago where there was no clear excuse for the poor performance and must turn it around and tough to gauge the intent if Haran was expecting more that day or expecting a claim. 

Class in play the edge of this race sides with #1 ACT A FOOL and #4 SIVAKO. As far as ACT A FOOL they had a subtle excuse on debut and rebounded with a strong B+ OptixGRADE effort breaking their maiden on March 5^th. SIVAKO moved up on this circuit for Block showing versatility and class with the WIDE trip on the turf in September and coming back to a sprint breaking their maiden in the closing days of 2022. 

Class and distance will be a test for #2 FAITHFUL KING though worth a mention with a BTL on March 26^th with “live” barn also part of that consideration on effort. #7 EL RAYO returns here for Manley and their first start against winners going back to September 30^th when they had just enough to hold in a photo for the win.

#2 WINGING WAYS was flying under the radar back on March 16^th and potentially could have contended for a top spot, though the rider lost the whip at the top of the stretch and was at a disadvantage over their rivals. #3 JACK VAN BERG wheels right back and with subtle class relief and that might be the key change here lacking finish on April 2^nd and does hold a win at this level, course and distance back to October 7^th. #8 CHICKS FOR FREE also holds form at today’s claiming level and requires a top effort to win the timing could assist in this third start of the cycle with improving OptixGRADE. 

Number wise #9 PUBLIC SAFETY fits on par though they have missed the break (VSLOG) in their most recent starts and that must be mentioned and considered once again as something to factor in terms of play. 

#2 SHARP HERO was dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) winning at this level, surface/distance back on November 25^th. At the time she had some buried form exiting a competitive, stakes event at Churchill that gave her a major upgrade on the day. She will give up recency here though has run well off the layoff keying back to last June and show finish (82 OptixFIG) in the Crestwood Stakes.  

#1 GOLD SMOKE will repeat a form cycle pattern from December stretching out to a route in the second start back off the layoff. He showed improvement in the December 31^st event and project to move forward here as they were not asked (NO_PUSH) to run on March 26^th and the class drop to run for the maiden claiming for the first time should further assist. #3 LIMA ZULU carries some “buried” form as well going back to September 18^th with the EX -EXCUSE at Emerald Downs and followed up that race setting a fast early pace/DUEL (flow upgrade) on January 20^th at the Fair Grounds. 

#9 SUMMER COUNTRY will find some changes returning here with the obvious being the trainer, distance and class. The class change while noticeable running for the claiming tag today, the race par from both events, the December 11^th Hawthorne debut (common race with GOLD SMOKE) and February 11^th Turfway Park race were listed much higher than today and the horses from those events held form and in many cases improved next out. 

#7 MODIFIER (and #5 LOCOMOTE) return from the March 19^th sprint and given a mention with the weather that race day; the colder winds and race result with the Vanden Berg trained Swiss Guard scoring as the open length pacesetting chalk winner. 

Happy Easter!!!! Not much for live racing action across the country but the forecast looks great for the Easter card at Hawthorne. With temps warming up you have to expect we will have a track that plays very evenly which will give 3-MISS MIA a better shot than she had her first two starts. She didn't run poorly in either but the speed really wasn't coming back to the field as she raced evenly through the lane. I expect she can rate a bit closer early in here and more forwardly in the lane. 7-SLEEPY CAT is a well-bred first timer for the Robertson barn that should take action on debut. The works in New Orleans were consistent and fitness should be no issue as she comes into here off three straight 5 furlong drills. Lasix for the debut and the outside draw will also help. 6-JEMEZ FALLS raced well at this level two back before running into a tough trip in her last. She has shown a bit more early foot in her last couple as well and could potentially inherit the early lead in here today.

Tough spot for the second as none are really in great form right now and figuring out the early pace could be equally as tough. 5-TWELVE RED ROSES stretches back out after three straight sprints and figures to show early speed in this spot. Looking back at her routes in 2022, she was forwardly placed in most with those races coming against better company. The class drop may be timely as she looks for a confidence builder today. 2-QUEEN EKATI raced well around two turns in her last two starts at Turfway which is a plus. The main question is if she prefers the synthetic surface over other surfaces. She did have some solid sprint efforts here last fall and is worthy of a look with the hot riding Centeno in the saddle. 7-HER GOLD MINE was intriguing at a price. She was sent away at 45-1 last out against similar and finished fourth in the field of ten that day. You have to dig deep to find her route race prior to her last start which game last October. In that spot she was close to the pace and hung in until the lane. With a lack of early speed in here she may just happen to get the right trip.

With the potential for a contested pace and the hopes of an evenly playing track I'll look to 2-ARCH FLYER in this spot as she figures to get a good tracking trip today. She rated in the second flight in her last and ran on for place money behind First Squadron, who came back to win her next start. She's very good at this distance and likes this track. If we can catch somewhere around 7-2 in here she may be worth the play. 4-PRINCESS STELLA has speed and may be looking to clear the field early in here. After a good race in New Orleans in January, she took on much tougher in her first start of the Hawthorne meet. Between the company, the outside draw and a poor start it was just too much to overcome. With the class relief today, expect a solid effort from her. 3-FOGGY KITTEN also has speed and should be a part of the early pace. The could work in her favor if she can beat Princess Stella to the lead but it would work against her if those two hook up early and set things up for Arch Flyer. A good break will be the key.

This is a very tricky race as there are some talented runners in here racing at the bottom claiming level. 7-TIME HEIST held his own against a good field of $8,500 company in his first start of the meet and takes the drop in class today. He's very good at this distance, has tactical speed, and may sneak off at a price if Act of Bob runs. The question is what to do with 8-ACT OF BOB as he comes in off a lengthy layoff for trainer Elliot Sullivan. He won all three starts last year and is 9 of 18 on his career win the win column. He also hasn't raced since last May but is working quickly and consistently toward his return. Let's see how he looks in the paddock and on the racetrack in here. 2-EASTER MUSIC has a running style very similar to Time Heist and he likes this track as well. He looks to be ready off three drills coming into the return but some recent scratches leave some questions as well.

A good field for a three-year-old AOC route race is headed by 1-ACT A FOOL from the Rivelli barn. After apparently not taking to the poly at all in his debut, he ran a great race over this surface on opening day, winning easily while going away. He also came off of Lasix for that start, which may have had something to do with the poor debut also. Expect to see speed from him in here as he looks for a repeat of his last start. 4-SIVAKO improved over his final two starts of the 2022 season, winning his last race of the meet. The connections may have been working to figure things out with him as the addition of Lasix, and a goggle for earwear both may have made the positive difference. He has a nice, consistent pattern of workouts leading to this race and breeding suggests he can handle the two turns. 3-MONGOLIAN BEE may not stack up with the top two in regards to speed figures, but he has been good on the racetrack and runs for a barn that always has theirs ready. With this one coming in off the claim I expect to see him step up as he should rate close to the pace today as well.

I really liked the effort out of 8-CHICKS FOR FREE last out as he rated nicely and closed well in the lane. The winner of that race, Follow the Signs, came back to win his next which flatters this one's chances. There's a good amount of pace in this race and the price may be right. 7-C C's KITTEN has the potential to show speed as he steps up off the claim today. Curious to see how he handles the dirt as he has been on synthetic surfaces for the majority of his starts. 5-SOUPER FORTUNE has a running style similar to Chicks for Free as he has a couple of wins over this track. He ran a respectable race in his first start of the meet while facing tougher. The class relief could make him a threat in here.

Curious to see who will handle this distance in this race. I'm giving the nod to 7-MODIFIER as the main thing he needs is to get away from the gate. Gate issues have been costly in all three starts but he is bred to handle the two turns for a barn that has gotten off to a good start this meet. 9-SUMMER COUNTRY is intriguing as he takes a class drop for a barn that often has success over this track. He has worked consistently toward the return and back to back mile drills show he should be fit for this race. 1-GOLD SMOKE also gets some class relief as she comes out of a start against a very tough winner in her last. Her two turn try on closing day last fall was solid as she merits a look from the inside.

In this “anybody-can-win” field, I’ll take a flyer with relative “price” shot 4-LUTION. She ran competitively in her debut but finished far back in her next two starts. All of her races were against tougher. Wish they would give her a try without blinkers since her bad races came after blinkers were added but, no matter what, she’s meeting her easiest field ever. 2-TENSE should be obvious after her narrow loss in last. She also owns better speed than her rivals. But she is making her 21^st start as a maiden. Couldn’t be surprised if she won but wouldn’t be surprised if she didn’t.  7-SLEEPY CAT doesn’t sport incredible drills but believe the savvy barn will have her ready at first asking. 

5-TWELVE RED ROSES drops. She didn’t handle the off track or the company in her first start of the meet but she’s dropping many levels to take on this group while stretching out. Figures to be the quickest of these. Should wake up big time. Not a fan of horses running over their conditions and 2-QUEEN EKATI is still eligible for a non-winners of two but she’s simply in better form than any of her rivals. Hard to ignore. 6-KITTEN ROCKS also stretches out. She’ll also be taking on easier under the conditions of this race. She hasn’t shown a lot in previous route races but she should be prominent from the start and speed has still been holding well. 

Thinking 4-PRINCESS STELLA will try to wire the field and just might succeed. She never got close after getting bumped off her game in her first local start of the year but she was also meeting far tougher. She finished second vs. rivals similar to these in New Orleans two races back and she won by six in her previous Hawthorne dirt start back in September. 2-ARCH FLYER just missed in last while chasing the lone speed on a speed-favoring surface. The winner of that race came right back to win again. It is interesting to note that this mare went off as the favorite in that race while going off at over 20-1 in her previous start at the same level and finishing up the track. Maybe someone knows something the rest of us don’t. 3-FOGGY KITTEN could be tough. She narrowly lost last at odds-on. However, she’s been running out of gas late in recent races and the stretch out to six furlongs could only exacerbate that trend.

The drop should greatly improve the chances of 7-TIME HEIST. He’s been splitting much better fields for a long time. The one possible knock against him is that he’s not as quick as many of his rivals in here but if the field stays intact, there could be enough dueling front runners to set up for him. On paper, 8-ACT OF BOB looks almost unbeatable. He’s been a winning machine with victories in eight of his last nine starts. However, he hasn’t raced for nearly 11 months and he’s dropping in price for his return. 4-RESTORING HOPE needed last. He tired after showing competitive early speed but should be fitter for this trip.

Hard to look past 1-ACT A FOOL. He simply dominated maidens in his local debut. He either didn’t like Lasix or the synthetic track in his debut but made up for lost time in last. Obviously races on dirt and apparently without Lasix. The race could be for second place. 4-SIVAKO is another coming off an impressive maiden victory, though his was in December. After a lackluster debut at Churchill last June he was switched to the turf where he got better with every start. He broke his maiden sprinting but he’s bred to be better going long and they are stretching him back out today. He is racing for the first time in three months but he’s been working like he’s ready. 3-MONGOLIAN BEE could be interesting. He’s a quick sprinter stretching out. If they let him loose on the front end he could be long gone.

8-CHICKS FOR FREE just finished second in a race at this level that was a sixteenth shorter and he had been competitive in similar races last year. The race winner came back to win again. The longer distance of this race would seem to work in his favor but the fact that he comes from off the pace on what has been a speed-favoring track could work against him. Tough call. The speedy 7-C C’S KITTEN makes his local debut and his first start after getting claimed by this barn. He enjoys pretty high speed figures but those figures don’t always translate from synthetic to dirt and his only previous venture on dirt resulted in a fifth-place finish in a restricted stakes at Churchill. 3-JACK VAN BERG drops. He raced prominently in his first two starts of the year but tired late. Might be there throughout at this somewhat easier level.

1-JUST A WONDER could be tough on the front end. She has been extremely game recently resulting in three wins and a second in her last four starts. She looks like the only real speed in this race, unlike her last couple where she had to fight for the lead every step of the way. 2-SHARP HERO had some good drills during the break but they were spaced strangely with two months between her first and second drill and two weeks between her second and third. On the other hand, they were all bullets. She’s facing mostly Illinois breds in this spot which could give her the advantage. 7-STOPSHOPPINGAMY just missed to top choice in a race a sixteenth shorter. The extra distance could work in her favor. But like top choice, she’s an Illinois bred with much of her success against state breds and like Sharp Hero, she’s going to be coming from off the pace.

Impossible race to handicap. Most of the runners are either dropping to varying degrees or stretching out. Going to take a flyer with 7 MODIFIER. He’s one of the droppers and he’s stretching back out. But he is bred to run all day. He’s been having issues leaving the gate but if they can get that cleared up, he could turn out to be a good one. 1-GOLD SMOKE beat only one rival in his first start of the year which was also his first with blinkers. However, he had a couple competitive races last year, including one at this distance. Drops to meet his easier field yet. Could graduate. 6-WICKED SURPRISE could surprise. He’s one of those stretching out and it appears that he could be the best speed in the field. Might cruise on the front end.