Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 SEAWARD has buried form and should move up with the added ground in this second start off the layoff. She ran a competitive race (B- OptixGRADE) on the off-track making her return to Hawthorne and slight reset of her form cycle off the 39-day layoff. In addition, she holds a win at this level albeit over the turf back on November 13^th, however also holds a competitive race at the condition on the maiden rail from October 14^th earning a 78 OptixFIG, a number in OFR for today’s race.

Her stablemate #1 HOT DAME will look to pair wins coming off the starter allowance Mahoning win two weeks ago. As far as that race, and as shown in the OptixNOTE, she took pace pressure (PRESSED) along the rail (SAVED) and did come off the inside (NO_LINE) off the turn into the lane finishing all out to hold in a BLANKET finish at the wire.

#4 A REAL HERO ships in to make her Hawthorne debut. In terms of ability she fits on class, speed and form shifting to this circuit and has been able to transfer her form to the conventional dirt in the limited starts over the surface. The surface change (dirt) is still unknown for #6 DIALED INNA, one that has progressed as of late. She will race in this spot protected and could be a sign they will give her the race today.

Number wise both #3 JULIASON and #5 RONAN are lighter for today’s event in the contender role, though expect a move forward with the race and added ground (STRETCH) for JULIASON making her second start off the layoff and 14-day turnaround. 

Class wise this will be a lateral move for #7 GO BERTI from the March 10^th race at Turfway Park and recording a strong figure and effort (flow upgrade) from that race and place finish. A repeat of that effort has them competitive right back with today’s field though must show they can hold and transfer form, something that has been a challenge for some of the shorter priced runners shipping in from Turfway Park this meet.

#5 CELLULOID HERO is the five-year-old seasoned runner in this field and back at Hawthorne where he has run in the past and not his ideal distance (or post position) sprinting here back on November 19^th. Number wise he has consistently run the higher figures than #1 MINNESOTA MOON, the second choice on the morning line returning to the main track here at Hawthorne with the blinkers added.

#2 ANCIENT MAN and #4 STAR NATION could still hold a move forward as they return from the common race here on March 5^th. Both horses were caught off the pace in a race shape that played against them with minimal change in running order behind open length (and next out) winner, Act a Fool.

Slager has a pair in this race with both #3 CHERRY ORCHARD and #6 MINING CAMP stepping up in class. Number wise Mining Camp has run competitive numbers for today’s race par, a lighter race pair than maiden claiming events from earlier this meet, though still must prove himself on class and on this surface with the visuals for this runner suggesting TURF. Cherry Orchard returns from the March 19^th common race with Mining Camp and should benefit (PREP) from that race though has ground to make up on the other established runners in this field. 

#5 ALEBRIJE has a strong Plot position and Large Square (closing ability compared to the others in the field) that is tough to overlook, especially as one that might not be favored in this race. He has form over this course and current form/speed figures that fit at today’s claiming condition and race par.  

#6 LAKE MILLS went “gate to wire” for Kirby in the second start off the layoff last season, the win back on June 10^th earning a top 88 OptixFIG. That same intent could be in play today as they make their second start off the layoff, returning to the claiming level and off a subtle trip (GATE, TROUBLE_S) back on March 16^th.  #4 LATIN CASINO is likely looking for a similar trip up front as their three wins to date have all been recorded when on the lead. They also have faltered on the lead with pace pressure and have also been able to stalk and pass horses recording consistent speed figures in line with a top effort even though result wise did not pick up the win.

#1 GAME BOY BENNY won off a similar layoff at Ellis Park last summer and that could suggest intent for this spot and returning to the claiming level looking to place him where he can win. His races here at Hawthorne have all been competitive noting the level last season racing in N1X allowance company for the higher $34k purse.

Closers have struggled over this course as of late and something to keep an eye on with the first two races and how that can impact #2 STALLONE and #3 STAR OF KODIAK for this race. 

As noted in Race 3, closers have struggled at times this meet and that must be considered here for #3 MEMPHIS PRAYER listed as the morning line favorite with that clear closing RunStyle. #7 IZEONDEC could have to work a similar trip with some of his more competitive races and RunStyle from off the pace.  #1 ARROW STRIKE is another that has shown to lack early speed and that Closer RunStyle though races as a longer shot compared to the other two mentioned in this field.

Tracy has sent out some well-meant runners this meet and could have another with #6 GO FOR IT first off the claim. While he will be tested against winners, his form/figures from Turfway Park this season fit on par and has back (and buried form from his HS Indy races) form on the dirt as well.

Perez horses have also been firing all meet and #2 TEA WITH LEMON being one of those winners picking up the maiden score here on March 5^th. They returned to take on winners with the WIDE trip in the mud at this level on March 26^th and again will try something new stretching out in distance for the first time.

Hernandez wheels back with a pair in this race and for #4 OVER CALENDARED in a week after they were able to draw into the April 6^th allowance race. The timing off the layoff, class, outside post and WIDE trip did them no favors on the day and has more to show though still requires the right spot and seems they will look to be assertive from the jump and for early speed as an advantage. The form cycle is progressive for stablemate #5 FATHER PATRICK another on a quick turnaround as well as the buried form from the Churchill Downs races last November with those races fitting right in to compete on repeat. 

Number wise #1 WHERE’S THE DAY GO and #2 DEORA STORE fit in this group though have run at this N3 claiming level not quite showing enough (C+ OptixGRADE) to support at the projected lower odds, especially with the distance change for both stretching back out to a route of ground. Their presence in this race as shorter priced runners could open up the race for a price and to get creative.

#5 FLASHY RICHIE turned in a sneaky good effort (MOVE, C+ OptixGRADE) against a higher claiming group on April 3^rd. The WEATHER conditions that made it tough to make up ground on the track and he still finished with run and in a four horse BLANKET for show.

#4 POWERFUL MAN repeats a form cycle pattern from last season to suggest upside and improvement for today’s race. He returned off the layoff last year, November 20^th not given (TACTIC-) his best change and sprinting though again was caught up in a trip on December 10^th and ran out of race days before the end of the meet. Stablemate #6 ZARMAE also returns with a look here back under similar condition from the March 26^th race and class drop from the higher level claiming races here last season.

#8 CHOCOLATE BUNNY returns from the common race a this level on March 26^th where they appeared well-meant that day bet down to the favorite from the assigned 15-1 morning line. He ran to that public expectation, however, took a tough beat after controlling most of the race to get caught at the wire by, Ministry of Art, the morning line favorite and second choice in the wagering.

Longshot #3 C V THUNDER will show up here with class relief from her recent races though a interesting spot off the layoff running this five-year-old mare against the older horses. With that said and what could be a prep (or scratch) form on her best day makes her competitive. 

#1 FIELD DAISEY made a positive (PRERACE+) physical appearance returning from the layoff on March 19^th though broke slow/SLOG was caught WIDE behind a pacesetting winner in Trip to Freedom for the Tanner Tracy barn shipping in from California. FIELD DAISEY could improve off that race as the race itself has held form and returning to the lower $6250k N3 claiming level – a level she improved at last season and appears all around the right fit for her abilities. 

#5 STACY ATTACK appears to hold some upside and intent in this second start off the layoff and returning to Hawthorne. She picked up the win last year with similar “second-off” timing in her form cycle, the October 23^rd front running (FLOW aided) score under Felix and appears to look for a similar trip returning from a competitive race (one next out winner) on March 17^th at Turfway Park. Her presence in this race with the early speed could make things tougher trip wise for morning line favorite, #6 MY LADY SLEW and even #4 NIFF in the field.

STACY ATTACK shares some common run lines with Field Daisey going back to last season and local form. She also shares the March 17^th run line with #2 BERTRANDA landing in this spot and circuit making her second start of the cycle. In terms of trip today, Bertranda has been more effective from off the pace and the change in tactic keeping her close to the pace last out could have been by design and a conditioning move returning from the layoff.

At the morning line, #8 CAIRO SUMMER fits on value with a case to be made here based on her Plot shape/position. Value is still required for her as she has come up short at this condition in the past and requires a top effort as well as trip to win at today’s level/distance. 

#8 BERNIE LOMAX returns to dirt, the surface where he has been most effective and recorded his higher speed figures. That is noted when looking at his form and a different picture emerges covering up the turf was at Tampa  and the recent three starts at Turfway Park.

The Surface/Distance Plot position/shape for Bernie Lomax also is upgraded (Large Quad II Square) with the potential pace dynamic, a Contentious pace with the Quad I group of Circles – lack of finish. #3 TOM’S LAST GENERAL also is upgraded as a Quad II Square and could also suggest intent noting they have been entered twice at this level during March before the race on March 30^th at Mahoning Valley.

As far as the early pace, #10 K C’S FIRST BMW is listed as the lukewarm morning line favorite and a horse that has legit early speed, though can be his own worst enemy with the pattern of breaking slow before making a RUSH to the lead. #5 BLACKTECA could be the “speed of the speed” in this race as he has back class and speed figures against tougher setting fast early paces that on his best day make him a player. The barn did start out the meet with an open length winner shipping in from the Fair Grounds and Blackteca returning from the 68-day layoff where they were entered at the Fair Grounds three times since that February 4^th race unable to compete as a vet scratch in each of those entries.

In terms of the closers/Quad IV: #6 TIZWOW could hold a move forward in the third start off the layoff. They return from the March 23^rd race when compromised on tri from poor rider TACTIC- in the four horse field that included front running unofficial winner, #9 SOVIET STANDARD. #7 PERFUMER had buried form including a BTL effort on March 9^th to set up the maiden win on March 23^rd. The effort could be taxing (HARD) coming back in three weeks and stepping up against winners though to his credit has shown run and improvement race-to-race. 

#4 EMPIRE BUILDER was claimed back in January and was entered in an allowance race in February at Turfway Park though a trainer scratch for Hernandez that day. They will return here and return to the dirt with what appears some intent to run here at Hawthorne where they have been stabled and training and calling up Emigh to ride.

#1 SPALDING STROLL projects to be a "longshot" on the board and one that has races that fit on par/OFR to win with class showing up at this allowance condition, the prime hurdle. As far as form, the added ground (STRETCH) and race coming off the layoff (PREP) should present a move forward.

Tracy entered #8 MR. SOLO at this N1X allowance condition on March 19^th and unable to compete as a vet scratch that day though could suggest intent as they return here under similar conditions and with Felix back aboard. #5 MISTER CHARMING ran in that March 19^th race and turned in an honest effort for the level. The class level is noted again here as he will be back up against open company.

#6 PAPA’S LUCKY SEVEN also returning from the March 19^th race where he projects to benefit from the race off the layoff noting they were not asked for run and moving up late on their own to earn fourth. Trip comes into play for this runner one that can be a deeper closer with the noted track profile to follow with the races earlier on the card. Their familiar foe from last season, #7 PATH TO SUCCESS returns to this circuit and allowance level where he has been competitive, though has come up a little short on the win end.

#10 BALADINE will attempt to stretch out in distance for the first time in his career. Outside of that unknown he has shown the ability to compete at this allowance condition with improving speed figures on a lightly raced, younger horse, compared to the more established types in this field. 

#7 READY MADE returns to the maiden claiming level where they have been more effective and seems well-intended with that class change. #8 SMOOTH ATTACK also returns to the maiden claiming level where they have recorded some of their competitive races and numbers on par with a similar RunStyle (Quad I Squares) to Ready Made. The Quad I Contention runs deep as they look to be joined by stablemate #5 ROCKET MAN ATTACK. Also taking up a spot in Quad I, #9 FASTNFURIOUS shipping in for Tanner Tracy, a lateral move in terms of race par exiting the Fair Grounds meet.

That early Contention could benefit #2 GUST OF WIND, the lone Square in the off-the-pace runners shown on the Plot. To date, Gust of Wind has been his own worst enemy with the pattern of gate issues (SLOG, TROUBLES+) since the debut, though has shown run to make up ground from off the pace in each start.

#1 GREEN GOBLIN could move up in this second start and shift in circuit. The trip and race shape even racing inside that March 5^th afternoon at Gulfstream Park did not do him any favors. The pattern of gate issues has also been present for #3 NORMANDY ANGEL in each of his three starts and must improve all around returning from the 139-day layoff in his sophomore debut.

Pace may make the race in the opener as 1-HOT DAME could be the speed in the field. She likes this track, draws well, and may go unchallenged from the start. Let's see if she can steal this. 6-DIALED INNA has won two of her last three and she comes to Hawthorne from recent starts in Kentucky. She will need a contested pace to chase but runs for a barn that is having a fine meet. 4-A REAL HERO has been claimed in five consecutive starts and until her last she raced well for every barn. She has the potential to show some speed and a pressing trip could be a perfect trip.

This would seem to be the time for 5-CELLUOID HERO to get his first victory. He has shown speed in his last coupe around two turns and it is appears only one other may be able to rate close early. 1-MINNESOTA MOON ran a solid race on the grass in his last in New Orleans. He has since come to Hawthorne and posted a bullet drill. If the pace is contested upfront early he should be able to rally in the lane. 7-GO BERTI is the other with some speed as he ran a good race while stepping up off the claim last out. Mojica returns in the saddle as this is another working well over this Hawthorne strip.

Not a ton of pace in this race which should benefit 4-LATIN CASINO as he figures to inherit the lead in here. He ran well in his last but Tilted Towers never came back to the field. With warmer temps and a clean break he will be very tough to catch. 5-ALEBRIJE has been pretty solid over his last half dozen races. It will be interesting in here though as he ran big at Oaklawn in his last but the claim for him was voided by the vet post race. He has since come back with a work over the track and will be tough in here if right. 3-STAR OF KODIAK will need someone to challenge Latin Casino early as he figures to close in the lane. The class relief will help for sure as he has run into some very solid sprinters in his last two starts.

Who goes in here? None of these appear to be committed to the front as possibly 2-TEA WITH LEMON tries to leave as he stretches in distance. His breeding clearly says he can show speed and handle the distance but this is where we find out. 3-MEMPHIS PRAYER comes in off a solid race last out at Turfway. That came while stepping up off the claim as he overcame some traffic to run on late. The concern for him in here is that there's not a ton of pace to set things up for his rally. 6-GO FOR IT was a good winner in his last and was claimed out of that victory. The Tracy barn has had an exceptional start to their meet and this one may sneak away at a price.

Another race without a ton of pace but with that said I don't this Chocolate Bunny finds things as easy on the lead as he did last time out. I expect 1-WHERE'D THE DAY GO to keep things honest upfront as he stretches out in his second start of the meet. His final route effort of the fall was good and the benefit of the inside draw should put him in a perfect spot. 5-FLASHY RICHIE drops in class off an effort against a respectable field for that level in his last. He is likely to sit in the second flight early but with the track hopefully evening out it could play more to his advantage late. 6-ZARMAE ran a good race last out as he sat back early and closed well on a day where front end speed was dominant. He may be alongside Flashy Richie early and will be trying to outkick that one in the stretch.

There's a couple in here that can show speed but I feel 2-BERTRADA could get the perfect trip from just off the early pace. She was claimed two back and chased before tiring in her last but let's give her another shot. She has been competitive against better and may sneak off at a decent price. 5-STACY ATTACK comes back from Kentucky for today's race as she ran well in that spot. She has speed and may be able to clear but if My Lady Slew is sent, it could compromise her chances. 8-CAIRO SUMMER ran on late last out to get up for second. She will also need some speed to chase but has run some good races here and can't be tossed out.

I've picked him in his last two starts and going to again as I'll look to 9-SOVIET STANDARD. He was a good winner two back and was game in his last. He did interfere with another horse in the lane as the stewards made the right call to DQ him. Let's see if he can get a clean trip today. 10-K C'S FIRST B M W has run well in his last three as he has tactical speed and shouldn't be too far back. He has found the board in all four Hawthorne starts and will benefit from the long run down the backside to get tucked in into the turn. 2-SUNDAY MISCHIEF is another with speed who figures to go from the inside. He comes in with back to back seconds as the added distance shouldn't be an issue for him.

This has to be the time for 7-READY MADE as he makes his third start of the meet. He ran well in his first race when in for the tag. His last is better than it looks on paper as Onasa was a very solid winner that day. Look for him to track the leaders and move forwardly in the lane. 9-FASTNFURIOUS is likely to try to leave from the outside as he has a chance to wire this field. If he can shake loose early on he may never look back. 8-SMOOTH ATTACK gets some class relief as he's back to a spot where he narrowly missed the last time he was in for the tag. He shouldn't be too far back early as he could run on late.

I thought the speed-favoring bias would start to disappear as it got warmer but it was still quite evident on Sunday. So, guess I’ll keep using that as one of the main factors in my handicapping. 1-HOT DAME just wired a starter field in Ohio and raced in second throughout in her previous start there. But she has also run well here in the past. While she doesn’t necessarily need the early lead to win, she does appear to be the best of the speed. Don’t normally like runners that have been racing exclusively on turf and synthetic tracks when they come here, 4-A REAL HERO has had some past success racing on dirt. This mare has been awfully popular at the claiming box; she switched connections in her last five starts. She does like to win but her come-from-behind running style can hamper her chances if the speed bias remains. 6-DIALED INNA, like A Real Hero, has been racing on synthetic tracks for the most part lately but she has also had some decent dirt races in the past. She did score in two of her last three races. Figures prominently.

It appears likely that the front end of this race will be a very busy place. Not sure which speedy runner will emerge on top. But, I’m guessing this will be a race won by a runner coming from slightly out of it. 1-MINNESOTA MOON could be the runner. He really hasn’t shown much so far but he doesn’t tend to lose much ground late. He’s running with blinkers for the first time which could help boost his speed a bit. His bullet drill last week could be the key. 5-CELLULOID HERO, 6-MINING CAMP, and 7-GO BERTI could be vying for the lead. Mining Camp might be the quickest from the gate but would expect the other two to engage before they come out of the clubhouse turn.

4-LATIN CASINO appears to hold the edge in this race. He finished second in his meet debut as the favorite but he looks like the only real speed in the race. Can take the immediate lead and never look back. 5-ALEBRIJE doesn’t seem to be as quick as top choice but he could be racing right at the heels of that rival. He had had three local starts without much success but he’s coming off a narrow loss at Oaklawn against a strong claiming field. Might be able to run down Latin Casino. 1-GAME BOY BENNY didn’t seem to handle the synthetic track at Gulfstream very well in last couple but he had an allowance win and a good second the last two times he ran here. Can awaken.

Trying to not overthink things here but 2-TEA WITH LEMON could be tough. He ran well in his last three, his barn and rider have been hot, he’s been finishing his races with authority and he’s finally stretching out. His pedigree suggests that he should thrive at the longer distance and he figures to display far better speed with the stretch out. Can sneak to the lead and never look back. 3-MEMPHIS PRAYER will be coming late. Although devoid of any early speed, he finishes well. Might be able to pass them all. 7-IZEONDECK can also finish with a rush. Don’t like that he’s had only one drill since his race on February 24^th but still figure his barn will have him ready.

Pretty open race but guessing 5-FLASHY RICHIE can improve somewhat with the drop in class. He hasn’t been beating many but none of his rivals are showing much more. This could be the easiest field he ever faced. Maybe. 8-CHOCOLATE BUNNY carried his speed much farther in last and only got passed late. He still finished second, beaten only a neck. There doesn’t appear to be a whole lot of other speed in the race though enough rivals have some semblance of early speed that he could face pressure on the front end. But, if not challenged early, he could take it all the way. 1-WHERE’S THE DAY GO needed last. He’s probably better on the lawn but he’s had some competitive dirt races. Could be much tougher in his second start off the layoff.

6-MY LADY SLEW tired in last but she was making her first start of the year while taking on better company. Drops to what should be the right level. She’s likely to face considerable front end pressure but at this level she can put them away. 1-FIELD DAISEY also needed last and she also drops. She finished a bit ahead of top choice in last and the pace sets up well for her. She came in second in her final two starts of 2022 when she was racing at this level. Will be motoring late. 8-CAIRO SUMMER stalked the pace at this level in her first start of the year. She didn’t make any big move but she ran well enough to get up for second. Not sure she’ll be fast enough to win this but she could easily fill out the vertical gimmicks.

Still expecting a speed-forward racing surface but there are so many quick runners in this race that things could set up for a late runner. There seems to be a pair that fit that description though another in here has shown the ability to come on late. 8-BERNIE LOMAX, 7-PERFUMER and 9-SOVIET STANDARD all have the capacity to close. Bernie Lomax faced better early in his career but was gone from racing for five months and returned to race on synthetic Turfway. Not sure if he is just totally out of gas but his Turfway races were terrible. However, he got claimed from his last race and he’s been working fairly well over this track. Might show something more. Perfumer just graduated in a low level maiden claimer. He’s taking on better here but like the way he finished his last two races. Soviet Standard finished first in his last two though he got DQ’d from last. He led all the way in that race but came from off the pace to graduate in his previous start.

4-EMPIRE BUILDER makes his local debut as well as his first start for this barn. He had only limited dirt experience and didn’t run that well early on but he blossomed when they stretched him out. He’s not a speedball but is quick enough to race right on the pace. 6-PAPA’S LUCKY SEVEN has a running style that might not win a lot of races on a speed-favoring track but think he will benefit from getting a recent trip over the track and he should finish full of run. 10-BALDINE is worth another look. This will be his first race around two turns but that could be to his benefit. As a sprinter stretching out, he’s likely to display even better speed and speed has been king so far this meet.

9-FASTNFURIOUS should be tough in his local debut. This Fair Grounds shipper is plenty quick. He does tend to run out of gas late but the cut back to five and a half furlongs could be just what he needs. 7-READY MADE is ready made for this race. He might not be quite as quick as top choice but he finished second in his two maiden claiming races while displaying good speed in both. 2-GUST OF WIND ran into some early traffic trouble in last. He did make a good middle move in that race but the recovery effort took too much out of him. There is an abundance of speed in this race. Expect this runner to come on late.