Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 TAPIT SAM returns in this spot for his third start this meet and on a progressive pattern that should have him sitting on the peak effort to win. He ran a competitive race making a MOVE back on March 12^th and gained fitness taken out of his natural RunStyle contesting the pace on March 30^th. As shown on the Plot, he has a Large Square (finishing ability) sitting in the center representing a position to track with first run off Quad I pacesetters, #1 THE LAST FACT, #2 TRIPLE CHROME, #4 IRONMAN RICHIE and #6 BOURBON TEDDY. 

#4 KRAMDEN is capable of showing more tactical speed noting their return on April 3^rd were in hand and not allowed to use for position, a race that could be seen as a prep off the two month break.  Their form here at Hawthorne stacks up well on par with competitive races at this level from last season including the December 2^nd win.

#1 DEVIL’S RULE returns here with the distance change back to a route. Throughout his career starting in 2019, he has been given just limited starts around two turns with all the dirt route races at HS Indy and Devil’s Rule finishing no worse than 4^th without a win, though recorded speed figures on par for this race and consistent with his current form. As far as his current form, he has shown run this season including the most recent April 9th race making a middle MOVE after a slow/SLOG start and turning in a solid GALLOP+ after the wire.

#3 GAGOOTS is proven over this course, distance and even at today’s condition with the win back on December 16^th. He has some challenges here while capable with his off the pace (Quad IV) RunStyle and giving up recency returning from the 110-day layoff.

There is a scenario where the pace is contentious especially if #2 BEHAVIN MYSELF “behaves” from the gate as he has shown a pattern of SLOG returning in 2023 though prior had lacked that issue and carried more natural early speed. 

#2 THIS MASQUERADE returns to the dirt and could be some intent with that surface switch as she makes her second start back off the layoff. She exits a higher race par (higher OFR) on March 16^th, a race that has not had many run back though the third place finisher, Judy’s Ms. Officer, did return on 3/30 to record a 94 OptixFIG in her next start. #5 UNBRIDLED ANNSLEY showed up here live for the connection on April 2^nd and dominated (B+ OptixGRADE) her rivals breaking her maiden in the route debut. While the track profile with the wind (WEATHER) could have assisted the final winning margin as it was tough to make up ground in the stretch, pairing efforts has her competitive back at this level.

#6 MAIDEN ROCK overall has some upside and with progressive form in her third start off the layoff though will be tested today running for the higher $15k claiming tag, that hurdle greater than the distance change as she can handle the route of ground and had the TACTIC- in her races here routing last season. 

Looking at OptixPLOT there is a scenario where the majority of the field bunches up early (shown on Plot together in a cluster around Quad I) for #1 PISTOL BOX to find the Contention he requires for that late run (Quad IV) from off the pace. In addition to pace, he has upside off his current form, the Past 3 Runlines, going back to the TACTIC-, X_FLOW on December 11^th racing at today’s condition; and returning this year with the PREP? OptixPROJECTION running on April 6^th.

The main challengers expected to take first run and hold finishing ability (Squares) in their own right with #3 JEFF THE LION (returns to make his second start off the layoff and could have required the return race and lost his race in the GATE rearing up and showed up WARM/washed out); #5 DIAMOND DAVE (another in the second start off the layoff/PREP?) and #7 DANVILLE (benefit of recency and form over this course, though could show regression here coming back from the 3/25 top) in this race. 

#3 CRYSTAL SNOW should move up returning to Hawthorne based on her current form and races here from last season. She was running here last fall against Special Weight and showing run though just not quite to that higher allowance level, though still recording effort that fit here in for the maiden claiming tag. #5 SONG OF AMERICA also brings upside with the class drop. She raced protected and in first time front wraps on March 16^th and did not have the ideal run stumbling (TROUBLE_S) at the start before making a RUSH for position and ultimately losing ground behind a dominant first time starter; open length pacesetting winner, Mendrel, a horse recording a 90 OptixFIG and nearly a course record. 

The distance and rider change could upgrade #1 C F V RED NOVA returning today in his third start back off the layoff. The DiZeo barn has been off to a slower start, though capable all around and should turn things around in what could be sooner than later. Pace could also assist as far as trip with many in this field that have run on or near the lead. That pace scenario also looks to benefit #4 GATE CREW returning here and back on the main track, a surface that might not be his ideal while waiting for turf, though still capable under the right conditions.

#5 CINDY’S STORM also carries some upside and upgrade should he drift up on the board. He brings a positive form cycle pattern running at the higher $25k claiming level with the WIDE trip back on March 16^th and not asked (TACTIC-) to race in the sprint starter allowance on March 30^th, taking that running line and finishing position with a grain of salt. While he is one of those runner that projects to be on or near the lead, he can be tough in that role and competitive on his best day. 

Rivelli has a quality pair returning in this race making their sophomore debut: #2 UNCASHED caught the eye in his debut, a dominant effort (B+ OptixGRADE) despite being dismissed as the longest shot in the field and that gave up a look on this circuit last year. Coming up short as the favorite on October 21^st was still and honest B OptixGRADE effort and had the adversity reluctant to load and in running racing on a Very Fast contested pace only to get caught late at the wire. #1 FIT TO FLY also returning from the long layoff and to this Hawthorne main track where he broke his maiden on debut. 

Many of the runners in this field will return from the common race on March 30^th. There were a lot of storylines in that race created by #6 FROSTED ÉCLAIR stumbling at the start (TROUBLES+) losing the rider and going on to cross the wire first in a jog, riderless. She has a look off that effort and back in with today’s group from that race as well as the place finisher, #2 BEG BORROW N STEAL.

With that said, there are some “new faces” to run at this condition that have form to make them contenders with hidden class. The class is using the Showtime Debutante stakes to upgrade horses in this allowance event. #5 GHAALEB’S RANGER ran in the 2021 edition finishing third with a late run from off the pace and should have plenty of pace for that run in the complexion of this field. Her late run, rider TACTIC- and the lack of pace played against her still turning in a B OptixGRADE, BTL effort in her 2022 finale, a season that was cut short with the layoff that followed the July 22^nd FanDuel race.  

#4 CAT ROYALE was favored in the 2022 Showtime Debutante racing in that event as a first time starter and has dome issues in running as well as a WIDE trip. She returns today in her seasonal debut looking to build off the experience late last year and in a favorable spot to compete. 

Some horses that have faced off in the past meet again. Went to 1-THE LAST FACT as he has speed and both lifetime victories over this racetrack. He drops a bit in class here but could scamper away early. 2-TRIPLE CHROME has some tactical speed, finishing behind The Last Fact in a start last winter. She turned the tables on that one a bit last out and is another getting some class relief. 6-BOURBON TEDDY has the speed figures that make him worth a look in here. He was also one who showed some speed in starts last year and is five of six on the board over the track. The one concern is that he was claimed out of his last and that claim was voided. He has just one work on the slower end since that February start which leaves some questions.

Looks like a bit more pace in here, unlike last time when Troy Ounce was easily able to wire a field. With three that could head for the front, I'll give the nod to 3-GAGOOTS as he makes his first start of the meet. He was an easy winner at this level two back and comes back off a couple of workouts. Have some slight concerns about fitness but the barn is having a strong meet as this one could be ready to roll. 2-BEHAVIN MYSELF put together a nice string of races here last fall and has posted all three career wins over this Hawthorne strip. Slow starts in his last couple leave some concerns but he gets some class relief and pace to chase which could even things out. 4-KRAMDEN shifted hands a couple of times through the claim box last fall and comes back to Hawthorne after a start at Mahoning Valley last out. He has been solid at Hawthorne but will need to improve his form a bit to compete in here.

5-UNBRIDLED ANNSLEY was very impressive in victory last out as she came in fit and ready off recent Fair Grounds starts. She has tactical speed in a race that doesn't have much pace. Her last was a lifetime best mark but she could be in position to repeat that performance today. 4-SUMMER BELLE makes her first start of the meet as she has been working well toward her return. She has run well when fresh in the past and figures to take some action today. 2-THIS MASQUERADE comes in from Kentucky for her second start off the long layoff. She does have enough speed to chase early and could hang around for a share in the lane.

Really not much for early pace in here. Thinking 7-DANVILLE looks to get away from the outside and find early position. He has been good over this track and comes in off some solid starter races at Gulfstream. Let's see if he can rate close early and wear down the leaders late. 6-PERFECT WAGER is always a hard trying runner as he just missed while sprinting in his last. He is just as consistent around two turns and likely won't be too far back early today. 4-BAKENEKO drops out of an allowance test last out where he chased early before giving way into the lane. With the lack of pace in here he could easily inherit the lead, which may make him dangerous.

On figures alone, 3-CRYSTAL SNOW looks to be a standout in this spot. She has run competitively against tougher and has shown speed from outside draws in three of her last four starts. If she can shake loose from the inside today they may never catch her. 5-SONG OF AMERICA is another that takes a class drop into here as she also has some early speed. She comes out of a key race as Mendrel won in a near track-record time before being sold for a large sum off that victory. This spot is much easier as the top two could follow each other around every step of the way. 6-LUNARCHY also takes the class drop as she entered in Indiana but chooses to stay home for this race. She will need pace to chase but if the top two duel early, she may get the setup she needs in the end.

Really nice allowance field in here as there could be a good amount of early pace. Thinking the quickest of the quick is 7-FEVER NATION as he comes off a big victory here in his first start of the meet. With the outside draw, he may be able to force the inside speed horses to make their choice early but it was his effort from just off the pace in the Jim Edgar Illinois Futurity last winter that shows he has some versatility. 2-UNCASHED is one of a pair in here from the Rivelli barn as those two draw the inside. He's been away since last October but is working well toward the return as he makes his three-year-old debut. 4-SWISS GUARD showed a big improvement in his last as he got onto an extended early lead and never looked back. We will see if he is sent away again early here and if he can sustain the speed he showed in his last.

A really competitive field closes out the card as the lightly raced 4-CAT ROYALE gets the nod in here. She has good tactical speed and figures to rate just off the early pace. Her works are solid as she is another Boyce horse that could be sitting on a good performance. 7-WILDWOOD DREAMER has speed and will likely head for the top. She was pushed every step in her last and gave way late. Let's see if she can shake loose early in here. 3-TIME BREAK is another with tactical speed who is winless at the track but has found the board in 6 of 9 starts. Look for her to rate close along with Cat Royale and try to run on late.

Interesting race. Many of the runners enjoy good early food but most of them are just as capable when coming from off the pace. But thinking 1-THE LAST FACT might have the edge. He seems a step quicker than the rest of the speed while maintaining the ability to close in case he doesn’t break alertly. Traffic trouble cost him a better placing in last. Can make up for it with a clean trip. 2-TRIPLE CHROME finished about seven lengths in front of top choice in last. He had been racing right behind that rival and though he couldn’t keep up with the eventual winner, he did outpace top choice. He has similar speed and can also close a bit. Could be tough. 6-BOURBON TEDDY has been in good form for a long time. He’s had a win, three seconds, and a third in his last six starts dating back to October. Makes his first start in two months, however, and had only limited drills since. Might need one.

They probably won’t do it but if I made the decision for the barn I would send 1-DEVIL’S RULE right to the lead. There is plenty of other speed in the race but with him stretching out, he should be the quickest from the gate. Speed continues to thrive on this track no matter the condition. He could surprise. 6-BOURBON DELIGHT and 5-TROY OUNCE are more traditional speed. Troy Ounce just wired a field for victory while the connections of Bourbon Delight opted to run him over his head in a sprint, possibly to sharpen his speed. He did wire the field in his previous start when Troy Ounce couldn’t keep up with him. Never know what to do with 3-GAGOOTS. He’s been pretty much all or nothing. The pace sets up well for his closing move but closers haven’t been winning that many races, though they often finish in the money. 

Not sure that 5-UNBRIDLED ANNSLEY holds a significant advantage over her rivals but she did look super sharp graduating in her local and route debut. She’ll be meeting others with speed, mostly runners stretching out, but she might be able to show even more with local and two-turn experience. 2-THIS MASQUERADE generated higher speed figures om synthetic but her best races came when she raced on dirt. Turfway shipper can wake up at a square price. 3-QUEEN EKATI switches to the hot apprentice rider with his seven-pound weight allowance in her first start after getting claimed by this barn. She probably needed last after five weeks off with only one short and slow drill. Could be a major player in this race.

7-DANVILLE should be tough. He’s had five races since getting back into the starter ranks and he hasn’t finished worse than third. He’s been taking on runners at the tough Gulfstream meet recently but he ran well here in the past. Probably meets a bit easier today than he has been facing. 6-PERFECT WAGER stretches out. He was narrowly beaten in two starter races this meet but those were sprints. However, he could be the only real speed in this two-turn race. Could grab the lead quickly and never look back. 3-JEFF THE LION finished up the track in his last two races but his second race back was his first in 13 months and it was another four months before his last. Today he drops to his lowest level ever while making his second start after a layoff. Improvement should be expected.

5-SONG OF AMERICA could be in a winning spot. This well-bred filly typically displays good early speed but either gets run down or runs out of gas late. She’s dropping to the lowest level of her career for this race. Might never look back. 6-LUNARCHY’s 16-length loss in her lone start is a bit misleading. It’s true that she lost by over 16 but the winner of that race was 12 lengths clear of the rest of the field. This filly drops. Obviously meets easier. Beaten favorite can make amends. 3-CRYSTAL SNOW also has a bit of early zip. Turfway invader has been better in route races but she’s another possibly meeting easier in this spot. Can be right there throughout. 

1-C F V RED NOVA stretches out. This gelding has been consistently competitive since returning from a year-long layoff. He’s likely to display far better speed at this longer distance but guessing he’ll still finish with something left. 3-DREAM ISLAND didn’t show a thing in his first race back from almost 14 months off but he was dropped in class for his next start and he won while racing just off the pace. He’ll be meeting many with speed today. Could get the perfect trip. 4-GATE CREW made a nice little late rally to get up for second in last. That was the first time he raced at this level. The pace could set up even better for him today. Might be able to run by them all.

I remember the connections of 2-UNCASHED being pretty high on his chances when he ran here last year. He was beaten as the odds-on favorite in that race but he only lost by a half length after pressing the pace through blistering fractions. This is his first start since that October race but he has been training well for his return. Can make amends. 7-FEVER NATION crushed a state-bred maiden field in his first start of the year. He finished second in the state-bred Futurity last year. Others in here possess better speed figures but I doubt if we’ve seen the best of this runner yet. 1-FIT TO FLY, the stablemate of top choice ran well in all his starts. He displayed good speed in his first two but it was his third start that might give a clue to the race. He came from off the pace to finish second and with all the speed in this race the ability to close can come in mighty handy.

Still expecting the speed bias to be prominent but there is so much early speed in this race that I looked for a runner to come from out of it. Landed on 9-QUILTING PARTY. She’s making her first start of the year and she has been far better going long but she has been training well, the pace should set up perfectly, and she gets a strong rider in the irons. 2-BEG BORROW N STEAL is another likely to make her best move late and she does have the benefit of a recent race. She finished second in a shorter sprint in her first start of the year. With the extra sixteenth of this race she could be prepared to fly by them all. 7-WILDWOOD DREAMER could turn out to be the best of the speed. She tired late in both starts this year, both shorter than this race, but her lone win came at six and a half so guessing she can get the distance.

T 3 Overpayment 2 Northern Magenta 9 Delcrest Brent

P 9 Rockinwithcustard 8 Golden Leader 4 Reys A Rocket

T 7 Alcina 5 Lindys Irishcream 4 No Turning Back

P 9 Dangerous Curves 4 Century Jamila 6 Wellers Watching

T 10 Cassius Hanover 9 Champagne Bettina 6 Dahlquist Hanover

P 4 Kuper Trooper 1 Moonstruck 6 Azariya

T 9 Lite The Candles 4 Great Guns 3 Im Above Average

P 8 Artistic Pick 7 Thedoginthefight 6 Thundering Jim

T 6 Whole Nother 1 Rough Tuff Tested 8 Eden Onthehill

P 9 Miss Canada 2 All Of Me 6 Blue Glamber