Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 TAPIT SAM returns in this spot for his third start this meet and on a progressive pattern that should have him sitting on the peak effort to win. He ran a competitive race making a MOVE back on March 12^th and gained fitness taken out of his natural RunStyle contesting the pace on March 30^th. As shown on the Plot, he has a Large Square (finishing ability) sitting in the center representing a position to track with first run off Quad I pacesetters, #1 THE LAST FACT, #2 TRIPLE CHROME, #4 IRONMAN RICHIE and #6 BOURBON TEDDY. 

#4 KRAMDEN is capable of showing more tactical speed noting their return on April 3^rd were in hand and not allowed to use for position, a race that could be seen as a prep off the two month break.  Their form here at Hawthorne stacks up well on par with competitive races at this level from last season including the December 2^nd win.

#1 DEVIL’S RULE returns here with the distance change back to a route. Throughout his career starting in 2019, he has been given just limited starts around two turns with all the dirt route races at HS Indy and Devil’s Rule finishing no worse than 4^th without a win, though recorded speed figures on par for this race and consistent with his current form. As far as his current form, he has shown run this season including the most recent April 9th race making a middle MOVE after a slow/SLOG start and turning in a solid GALLOP+ after the wire.

#3 GAGOOTS is proven over this course, distance and even at today’s condition with the win back on December 16^th. He has some challenges here while capable with his off the pace (Quad IV) RunStyle and giving up recency returning from the 110-day layoff.

There is a scenario where the pace is contentious especially if #2 BEHAVIN MYSELF “behaves” from the gate as he has shown a pattern of SLOG returning in 2023 though prior had lacked that issue and carried more natural early speed. 

#2 THIS MASQUERADE returns to the dirt and could be some intent with that surface switch as she makes her second start back off the layoff. She exits a higher race par (higher OFR) on March 16^th, a race that has not had many run back though the third place finisher, Judy’s Ms. Officer, did return on 3/30 to record a 94 OptixFIG in her next start. #5 UNBRIDLED ANNSLEY showed up here live for the connection on April 2^nd and dominated (B+ OptixGRADE) her rivals breaking her maiden in the route debut. While the track profile with the wind (WEATHER) could have assisted the final winning margin as it was tough to make up ground in the stretch, pairing efforts has her competitive back at this level.

#6 MAIDEN ROCK overall has some upside and with progressive form in her third start off the layoff though will be tested today running for the higher $15k claiming tag, that hurdle greater than the distance change as she can handle the route of ground and had the TACTIC- in her races here routing last season. 

Looking at OptixPLOT there is a scenario where the majority of the field bunches up early (shown on Plot together in a cluster around Quad I) for #1 PISTOL BOX to find the Contention he requires for that late run (Quad IV) from off the pace. In addition to pace, he has upside off his current form, the Past 3 Runlines, going back to the TACTIC-, X_FLOW on December 11^th racing at today’s condition; and returning this year with the PREP? OptixPROJECTION running on April 6^th.

The main challengers expected to take first run and hold finishing ability (Squares) in their own right with #3 JEFF THE LION (returns to make his second start off the layoff and could have required the return race and lost his race in the GATE rearing up and showed up WARM/washed out); #5 DIAMOND DAVE (another in the second start off the layoff/PREP?) and #7 DANVILLE (benefit of recency and form over this course, though could show regression here coming back from the 3/25 top) in this race. 

#3 CRYSTAL SNOW should move up returning to Hawthorne based on her current form and races here from last season. She was running here last fall against Special Weight and showing run though just not quite to that higher allowance level, though still recording effort that fit here in for the maiden claiming tag. #5 SONG OF AMERICA also brings upside with the class drop. She raced protected and in first time front wraps on March 16^th and did not have the ideal run stumbling (TROUBLE_S) at the start before making a RUSH for position and ultimately losing ground behind a dominant first time starter; open length pacesetting winner, Mendrel, a horse recording a 90 OptixFIG and nearly a course record. 

The distance and rider change could upgrade #1 C F V RED NOVA returning today in his third start back off the layoff. The DiZeo barn has been off to a slower start, though capable all around and should turn things around in what could be sooner than later. Pace could also assist as far as trip with many in this field that have run on or near the lead. That pace scenario also looks to benefit #4 GATE CREW returning here and back on the main track, a surface that might not be his ideal while waiting for turf, though still capable under the right conditions.

#5 CINDY’S STORM also carries some upside and upgrade should he drift up on the board. He brings a positive form cycle pattern running at the higher $25k claiming level with the WIDE trip back on March 16^th and not asked (TACTIC-) to race in the sprint starter allowance on March 30^th, taking that running line and finishing position with a grain of salt. While he is one of those runner that projects to be on or near the lead, he can be tough in that role and competitive on his best day. 

Rivelli has a quality pair returning in this race making their sophomore debut: #2 UNCASHED caught the eye in his debut, a dominant effort (B+ OptixGRADE) despite being dismissed as the longest shot in the field and that gave up a look on this circuit last year. Coming up short as the favorite on October 21^st was still and honest B OptixGRADE effort and had the adversity reluctant to load and in running racing on a Very Fast contested pace only to get caught late at the wire. #1 FIT TO FLY also returning from the long layoff and to this Hawthorne main track where he broke his maiden on debut. 

Many of the runners in this field will return from the common race on March 30^th. There were a lot of storylines in that race created by #6 FROSTED ÉCLAIR stumbling at the start (TROUBLES+) losing the rider and going on to cross the wire first in a jog, riderless. She has a look off that effort and back in with today’s group from that race as well as the place finisher, #2 BEG BORROW N STEAL.

With that said, there are some “new faces” to run at this condition that have form to make them contenders with hidden class. The class is using the Showtime Debutante stakes to upgrade horses in this allowance event. #5 GHAALEB’S RANGER ran in the 2021 edition finishing third with a late run from off the pace and should have plenty of pace for that run in the complexion of this field. Her late run, rider TACTIC- and the lack of pace played against her still turning in a B OptixGRADE, BTL effort in her 2022 finale, a season that was cut short with the layoff that followed the July 22^nd FanDuel race.  

#4 CAT ROYALE was favored in the 2022 Showtime Debutante racing in that event as a first time starter and has dome issues in running as well as a WIDE trip. She returns today in her seasonal debut looking to build off the experience late last year and in a favorable spot to compete.