Handicapper Tips & Picks

Number wise #6 I'M YOUR VALENTINE is logical as one that is proven over the Hawthorne course and distance of this race. His efforts from last season stack up on par and should move up on the class drop from those event and even a subtle change from the recent Turfway Park starts. The intention has been to return under similar conditions by Kirby noting they were entered in a similar spot back on March 16th, a vet scratch that day. 

I'M YOUR VALENTINE does tend to run from off the pace though should have the required pace to run at with #2 KING ZION (tough to trust with race record though has plenty of competitive races to win on his best day) and #4 WICKED SURPRISE (still unproven on stamina/come up short at level without excuse) in the field. The distance change could benefit #5 C F V NOBODYCARES today; and another in this spot that based on prior route races could show more early speed. 

The RunStyle for #3 LOCOMOTE is unknown going off the sprint debut breaking slow (SLOG) and chasing a open length pacesetting winner on a colder, wind chill day. 

#1 STOLICH has some buried form showing up in this spot and on this circuit. He recorded a competitive 73 OptixFIG, a number right in line with I'm Your Valentine back on February 10th and has since had subtle trips (3/7 WIDE and 4/1 had trouble losing action over an uneven main track) and could also benefit from the added ground. 

#4 GYURZA still must show more though if there is more run present this could be the time and place. She will find the softest spot than her races to date (including events she was scratched out of) and with the timing in this second start off the layoff, with the rider change in what could be assessed as a "prep" with just one recorded work on April 15th, just five days before the race. 

#1 LUNARCHY also returns here on the quick timing and with the class drop. She did not show as much as required to compete last week, though was WARM and the class change/fitness could be on her side here.

Those two runners also present upside as "new faces" to this level and with many returning from a common race back on April 6th, not necessarily a strong race for the level. 

The April 2nd race #3 HOLD HER HOSTAGE returns from was a stronger event with the winner, Unbridled Annsley showing grit to hold for a photo win in her next start. HOLD HER HOSTAGE shares a running line with #5 JEMEZ FALLS, one that has some buried form keying back to a place finish under similar conditions here (albeit WEATHER aided) on December 31st. 

#2 PROTOMAGIC has consistently recorded some of the strong figures in this group though most of those numbers on the turf/synth and this season the Sullivan barn has sent out runners that looked the "best on paper" and come up short (COLD) without excuse. Those factors must be considered as she projects to be a heavy favorite in this race.

#3 MAYSTART could be overlooked off that "paper form" with the recent running lines and finishing positions. However, looking at OptixNOTES shown in the Past 3 Runlines, MAYSTART recorded a B- OptixGRADE at this level off the layoff on March 19th and paired that up with a BTL/TROUBLE trip just 11-days later on March 30th. She projects to IMPROVE off that 5th place run and has been given the 28-day freshening for this race in the third start off the layoff. The distance change is noted though keying off her spring Hawthorne form/OptixFIG last year, she was consistent recorded strong numbers at a higher allowance condition and those OptixFIG stack up strongly on par/OFR here. 

#5 CELESTIAL SPIN could fall into a similar category with form that fits and the shift in trending going out for a live Mark Cristel barn. With that said, CELESTIAL SPIN has turf (and even synth) as her preferred surface with the limited dirt races she requires to transfer her top form to compete on this surface. 

Number wise #6 GUN RUSH makes sense as the race favorite, though there are other factors to consider with the shorter price. In terms of the more obvious, he has yet to race on dirt and still unproven around two turns. As far as form cycle, he could have "peaked" on April 1st recording a new top number that day and must hold his form here. 

The surface shifting to the main track was unknown for #2 STRIKE PRICE on April 6th showing up here for that dirt and Hawthorne debut. While he seemed to handle the track, the trip was a different story encountering legit TROUBLE+ that impacted his race and likely outcome. #5 KEEP ATTACKING also returns from the April 6th race and with progressive OptixFIG/GRADES into this third start of the cycle though in terms of class, he has come up short in at this level and with open company on this circuit - underneath type. 

Three-year-old #4 FAITHFUL KING could present a move forward as he returns to the N2 claiming level and a softer spot from both the March 26th (BTL OptixNOTE) and higher Optional Claiming event on April 9th. A move forward is required though now has the distance experience wheeling back today and with the TROUBLE_S and track profile favoring runners forwardly placed (open length pacesetting winner, Act a Fool) could present improvement. 

#5 COWBOY'S DREAM could be sitting on a top effort and under the radar coming into this race. They return to this OC condition, a level/surface/distance they picked up their most recent win, going back to June 17th. Their races at the level here back on October 28th and December 4th were both competitive and fit with OptixFIG in today's OFR.

They will require early pace for their stalking RunStyle and trip, though that pace should be honest looking at OptixPLOT (pre scratch) with both #1 LAVENDER EARL and #3 MOMENT in Quad I above the ParLine and joined by #4 BIG BLUE and #6 CHRISTMAS PRESENT (both up in class) project to race forwardly placed (Quad III) for today's Surface/Distance. #2 GLOBAL EMPIRE sits in a similar (literally, they overlap!) Plot position shape (Quad IV Square) to COWBOY'S DREAM, though has the tendency to break SLOG though carries the consistent B- OptixGRADE form just requiring a little bit more to win.

#7 BEEALEA is the "wild card" in this race given the distance unproven around two turns. As fast as their form, they have upside (IMPROVE) for this second start off the layoff keying off the TROUBLE trip showing run with the inside MOVE and energy GALLOP+ past the wire. 

The idea back on April 9th keyed off the pace scenario and looking for #3 WEEKEND PASS to get the right dynamic for their late run. That expected scenario did not play out as many riders took off the pace and allowed the winner, Her Gold Mine the LONE lead and a Very Slow pace to a front running open length score. Today's OptixPLOT, shows a similar scenario that should set up the Quad IV Large Square of WEEKEND PASS (X_FLOW on 4/9) with six of the seven runners (Sun Contention) above the Par Line with the 86 SpeedRate. Value is required on this type of deep closer though should be there given the complexion of this field. 

Distance is still unproven for #4 CAIRO SUMMER, though another worth a look returning from the BTL effort in the 4th place April 13th race and paired with the B- on March 26th. The OFR today is slightly lower than those two events earlier this season to further assist. 

This analysis starts with those with experience and those four have competitive races this season. #3 CANTOO returns off two BTL efforts in this third start off the layoff though will be tested here shifting to open company.  #1 POSITIONDUMONI holding progressive form with the improving OptixFIG/GRADES coming into this race. #4 CREME DE CASSIS could present a pace advantage on the others (Quad I) though must show more finish (Circle, NO_LEAD, NO_LINE) than their debut when chasing Mandrel on March 16th, a race that has not been productive.

#6 VISIONISTA has the Special Weight form from the Fair Grounds where they likely showed their abilities in those races and intent there running at the LA-bred condition. Their stablemate, #2 SALLY'S SURPRISE, a first time starter has gaps in their published works including missing March. 

First time starter #5 GETTIN DOWN is listed as the morning line favorite and likely to receive public support for Rivelli, though it should be noted they were entered back on March 23rd in a $17.5k maiden claiming race, a vet scratch, did not run that day. Stablemate #7 GLADYS ALICE also on debut shows gaps in the published works to create some reservations.

#8 ALLOTROPE worked 33.4 back on January 23rd at the OBS Sale and will make her debut here for Berndt, a barn capable with first time starters. She looks well-prepared (and seems capable for added ground going forward) with the local works and preferred of the new faces in this group. 

Morning line favorite #7 JEALOUS EYES looks to be the "speed of the speed" (Quad I) in this race, though must contend with the overall dynamic, the higher 56 SpeedRate that would require them to run a top effort to win. #1 AHEADOFTHEGAME could be their biggest challenge on the lead (Quad I Surface/Distance) and as a horse with an "every other" pattern should be sitting on a top effort today. 

#9 ROCKET HOTSHOT could have the pace they require for their late run. That dynamic is key to their race as form (B- OptixGRADE) and speed (OptixFIG) stack up with today's OFR and in this third start back off the layoff, to suggest intent.

#4 JUSTICE ONE as they project to IMPROVE from their April 6th return. With that said, they require a top effort and their race here under these conditions back in October was just average; C+ OptixGRADE. Buried form at this level also comes into play for #3 MILLARD'S SMILE keying off the pair of place finishes here last fall and pairing 79 OptixFIG, efforts that are just shy of the "winning" B OptixGRADE though enough for a minor share returning to those efforts. 

Vanden Berg horses ran lights out starting off the meet and will require #9 TIMEHASCOME to hold their form here and step up in the first start against winners -- factors to consider at the expected shorter price. 

#6 BIRDIE MACHINE declined in their speed figures after breaking their maiden on debut last August and before the layoff. They will return from that break and with the class relief where even the 70 OptixFIG from the November 4th WIDE trip stacks up with today's OFR. 

#8 KANITHAPPEN was entered here under similar conditions on March 23rd and unable to compete as a vet scratch that day. They remained at FanDuel waiting for this spot and comes back to Hawthorne and this claiming conditions where they were picked up last season and off two competitive (B- OptixGRADE) races in November. #5 SUNDAY MISCHIEF ran in that March 23rd race and regressed coming off a game effort 18-days earlier on March 5th. They have been given time to regroup, the freshening and even some buried form for this race overlooked from the April 13th race against the higher $12.5k claiming runners. 

What a tough race to figure out for the opener! There are some horses in here that appear to be career maidens and there's also very little along the lines of early pace. Really hoping 4-WICKED SUPRISE is sent away for the top as He chased when stretching out last time out while facing better and shouldn't have to go that quick early to make the lead in here. His starts while sprinting two and three races back make him a factor and he should go off at a square price. Based on speed figures alone, 6-I'M YOUR VALENTINE looks to be the clear one to beat. He has also faced better and has some starts last fall at Hawthorne that would make him the one to beat in here. My only concern is that his price will likely be very short and he will have to try to close into a pace that doesn't appear to be very strong. 5-C F V NOBODYCARES has run three races on the meet that would put him in the mix with this field today. He also doesn't appear to have much speed from the gate but with the stretch in distance there is the potential for him to rate a bit closer early.

Much like the opener, there is no standout in this race. Unlike the opener, I do expect we see some more early speed in here but not sure if it is speed that runs on through the wire. Giving the reluctant nod to 1-LUNARCHY as she drops in class off two starts that haven't been great, but haven't been terrible either. She wheels back quickly today but comes out of a $15k maiden race that had a rather solid field for that level. Things are much easier here as she should stalk early and could pounce late. At 51/2 furlongs and with a race under her belt, 6-SHORT STRAW merits a look for a barn that has had a great meet. She winged it to the front last time out and opened up an early lead. She did tire in the stretch late but today goes a 16th shorter and may have just enough in the tank to hold on to the wire. 5-JEMEZ FALLS was one that expected a bit more out of earlier in the meet. That said, she was also facing tougher and trying to close ground on days where speed held quite well. With warmer temps and minimal wind expected Thursday, she should be able to move forwardly in the lane and can contend on the drop.

Went back and looked at this race a few times. Stepped away from the computer then came back to look at it again. It just appears that 1-SUM KINDA PRETTY will be the controlling pace in this race as she makes her second start of the meet. She likely needed her last start (which wasn't a bad effort) and she was protected in there with the claiming waiver off the layoff. She's back around two turns, has the race under her belt and draws the rail. I expect she inherits the lead and dictates the pace the whole way around. 2-PROTOMAGIC comes off a decent allowance effort at Mahoning Valley in her last. She seems to be more of the stalking type and could be only 3-4 lengths back off what shouldn't be a very quick pace upfront. If she can keep in contact with the leaders early, she should be able to come running late. 3-MAYSTART is winless in 15 tries at Hawthorne but has found the board in seven of those races. She shows a lot of sprint races recently, but I feel her dirt route last June over this track was one of her better efforts. Don't discount her underneath in the gimmicks.

Based on speed figures alone, 6-GUN RUSH looks to be a standout in this spot. The main question to be answered will be if his form on the synthetic surface translates over to a conventional dirt track. He looks to have enough speed to rate close and wear down the leader in the lane. 5-KEEP ATTACKING closed nicely last out to run a good second while at a price. He is another that has the ability to sit relatively close to the pace as he may have to try to outkick Gun Rush to the wire. 4-FAITHFUL KING is lightly raced and drops out of a tough allowance test last out. I wouldn't be surprised if we see more speed from him in here as he makes his second start around two turns.

Tough spot here as 3-MOMENT is going to be the one to beat but will also be a short price. 4-BIG BLUE presents more value as he steps up off what was a solid score in his last. He has tactical speed and should stride for stride with Moment early on. Let's see who can outkick the other to the wire. 7-BEEALEA may benefit from the stretch in distance as he is likely to rate in the second flight early and could come running after the leaders in the lane. The poor start in his sprint last out was costly but a shorter field and a better break could make all the difference in here.

Really isn't much along the lines of early pace in here as I'm hopeful that 1-KITTEN ROCKS takes advantage of the inside draw and second start around two turns and gets sent away for the lead. She chased a slow pace in her last but if she inherits the front here she may never look back. 5-SILVERA has progressed in her last two starts and is the other who potentially could settle closer early on. She has had some success over the track and picks up Lezcano in the saddle, who has ridden well over this track from limited mounts. 2-TWELVE RED ROSES figures to take the majority of the action at the windows off a good effort at this level last out. She battled with Kitten Rocks through the lane for place money, narrowly missing out. Look for her to rate close early and contend the entire way once again.

Throughout the course of this meet we have seen numerous horses come in from New Orleans and run big races. 3-MILLARD'S SMILE could be another of those horses as he has followed up some decent Fair Grounds races with a couple of good works over the track. He has some tactical speed as I expect him to rate close early and contend the entire way. 9-ROCKET HOTSHOT ran some good races at this distance last fall and at the start of the spring meet. He is going to need pace to chase but with warmer temps expected and water getting down on the track you can expect that he is closing quickly late. 7-JEALOUS EYES was the favorite in the same route race that Rocket Hotshot came out of on March 16. He did show speed in that race and was pushed along as well. Let's see if he tries to clear in here or looks to rate and run on in the lane.

The top contenders appear to be on the outside in here as 9-TIMEHASCOME draws the far outside. He has speed but with other pace in the race he figures to pace some early pressure. He has been game in his starts though and has to be considered. Because he will be a short price I'll look to 6-BIRDIE MACHINE as he should be a bit better price. This is his first start of the meet as he enters off a nice string of works. Look for him to sit in the second flight early and get the jump on the closers. 8-KANITHAPPEN is a possible price play but he is tough to endorse on top with just one win from 24 lifetime starts. He also makes his first start of the meet and should be closing ground in the lane.

6-I'M YOUR VALENTINE is the slimmest of picks. He's never shown a lot but his two best races came when he ran against claimers here last fall. He had a second and a third in that race while taking on tougher. Those races were against somewhat tougher. He seems the most logical with the drop to his lowest level ever. 4-WICKED SUPRISE also drops. He tired badly in last, his first two-turn race, but should be able to grab an easy lead in this race. Might take it all the way. 3-LOCOMOTE got away slowly and things didn't get any better in his lone start. But he is taking a significant drop in class and stretching out. Might improve.

6-SHORT STRAW tired in her debut but could be more effective in this race. She'll be racing with experience and will have to carry her speed a sixteenth less. Might last. 5-JEMEZ FALLS isn't as quick as top choice or even as quick as many of her other rivals but she does own enough speed to stay close and she might be able to finish better than any other in here. 1-LUNARCHY tired in both races but she is dropping one more time and might remain competitive throughout.

1-SUM KINDA PRETTY gets the nod. Normally she would look like the best speed but many of her rivals are sprinters stretching out so she figures to have plenty of company on the front end. However, she has had some races under pressure where she didn’t wilt. She could have that kind of day. 2-PROTOMAGIC was overmatched in her first start for this barn but she’ll be dropping to a more realistic level. Unlike many in here, she’ll be doing her best running late. Could take advantage of what might be the perfect pace. It’s been a long time since 5-CELESTIAL SPIN showed much but his trainer has started three runners at the meet, winning two, and his rider is vying for top jock hours.

Not sure if it was changing barns via claim or the addition of blinkers in last but 6-GUN RUSH had one of the better efforts of his career in last. That race was a sprint and it was contested on synthetic but there’s a good chance that form will carryover to his first race here. 4-FAITHFUL KING had a lot of things go wrong in last when he stretched for last. It didn’t help that he was racing over his head. But he’s dropping to what should be the right level today. Expecting dramatic improvement. 1-STORM’S REFLECTION is always a threat. He gets the lead almost every race. But…he just can’t seem to get the distance. His lone win came at a mile on the turf. Might have to await the lawn races before he earns another trip to the winner’s circle.

3-MOMENT is probably the most logical runner in here. He’s had five local races and won four of them including last. His prior race was his lone local loser and he still finished second there. However, this will be no easy task. There appear to be a few runners in here capable of dethroning him, including a few with decent speed. 7-BEEALEA is an interesting runner. He’s been taking on allowance company for a long time and not even state-bred allowance. He’s been facing open company. But today he drops. He’s one of the few in here racing for a tag. However, he won the only two times he ran for a tag. He could wake up. 5-COWBOYS DREAM could surprise. A heated pace seems likely and as probably the best closer in this field he could be poised to take advantage late.

None of the fillies and mares in here will ever be called quick but 1-KITTEN ROCKS, as slow as she is, just might be the best of the speed. She finished second when stretched out for the first time in almost a year. Could prove tough with that route behind her. 6-PRANCIPANTS might benefit from the stretch out. Her previous route races weren't great but she did show some late run in a sprint last out and she might appreciate the extra distance. 4-CAIRO SUMMER also stretches out. She's still eligible for the NW3 but none of her rivals are exactly lighting things up.

Like the speed that 4-CREME DE CASSIS showed in her debut race. She wound up finishing fourth, 16 lengths back, but the winner of the race was clear by 12 lengths so maybe that effort was better than it looked. But really like that she had two longish drills since that start. This race is a sixteenth farther but she could be better prepared to carry her speed all the way. 5-GETTIN DOWN is a well-bred first timer. Her recent drills, with the exception of one, have been on the slow side but still expecting her to be ready to compete at a high level. 1-POSITIONDUMANI comes of what was easily the best race of her career. She grabbed the early lead but ran into a highly-regarded first timer that ran away from the field. Still, she held for second. A similar effort by her today could make her a top contender.

3-MILLARD'S SMILE ships back from Fair Grounds. He wasn't really competitive there but was probably meeting tougher groups under the same conditions. He had a pair of dirt routes here in the fall and finished second in both after taking the lead in the stretch. If he gets to the lead in this one it could be for good. 7-JEALOUS EYES could be tough. There doesn't seem to be too much early speed other than him in this race and speed has still been king, though that wasn't quite so pronounced on Sunday. 1-AHEADOFTHEGAME doesn't always get to the lead but when he does, he's hard to beat. On the other hand, he only races evenly when he doesn't break on top. Will he or won't he?

1-SOVIET STANDARD drops to the right level. He's shown the capacity to either race on the lead or to come from off the pace but think he'll be tough on the front end in this spot. 9-TIMEHASCOME turns back in distance but could still be the only one capable of pressing top choice. He wired the field, going long, in his local debut. He was in against low-level maiden claimers there but he was well within himself. Probable favorite might live up to expectations. 6-BIRDIE MACHINE races for the first time this year but he's been working well and he's dropping to what should be the right level.

T 3 Titan Flax S 5 Enzo Aquello 1 Peso Hanover

P 8 Artistic Pick 7 Mack Impact 6 Hurrikanekingcarlo

T 8 Texaco Man 1 Creatine Star 3 Bella Cavalla

T 6 Lite The Candles 2 Winning Muscle 1 Yank My Halo

P 10 Ebony Lady 9 Codys Moment 8 Bettor Call Mom

T 1 What An Angel 2 Stonebridge Bomber 3 Shesundertheradar

T 10 Cardio Muscle 3 Champagne Bettina 1 Climb The Pole

T 1 Sweet Detrmination 2 Dahlquist Hanover 3 Whole Nother

T 6 Last Page First 5 Creed Hanover 7 Southwind Coors

P 10 Nimah Franco 9 Sunny Sicily 8 Premier Bettina