Handicapper Tips & Picks

Number wise #6 I'M YOUR VALENTINE is logical as one that is proven over the Hawthorne course and distance of this race. His efforts from last season stack up on par and should move up on the class drop from those event and even a subtle change from the recent Turfway Park starts. The intention has been to return under similar conditions by Kirby noting they were entered in a similar spot back on March 16th, a vet scratch that day. 

I'M YOUR VALENTINE does tend to run from off the pace though should have the required pace to run at with #2 KING ZION (tough to trust with race record though has plenty of competitive races to win on his best day) and #4 WICKED SURPRISE (still unproven on stamina/come up short at level without excuse) in the field. The distance change could benefit #5 C F V NOBODYCARES today; and another in this spot that based on prior route races could show more early speed. 

The RunStyle for #3 LOCOMOTE is unknown going off the sprint debut breaking slow (SLOG) and chasing a open length pacesetting winner on a colder, wind chill day. 

#1 STOLICH has some buried form showing up in this spot and on this circuit. He recorded a competitive 73 OptixFIG, a number right in line with I'm Your Valentine back on February 10th and has since had subtle trips (3/7 WIDE and 4/1 had trouble losing action over an uneven main track) and could also benefit from the added ground. 

#4 GYURZA still must show more though if there is more run present this could be the time and place. She will find the softest spot than her races to date (including events she was scratched out of) and with the timing in this second start off the layoff, with the rider change in what could be assessed as a "prep" with just one recorded work on April 15th, just five days before the race. 

#1 LUNARCHY also returns here on the quick timing and with the class drop. She did not show as much as required to compete last week, though was WARM and the class change/fitness could be on her side here.

Those two runners also present upside as "new faces" to this level and with many returning from a common race back on April 6th, not necessarily a strong race for the level. 

The April 2nd race #3 HOLD HER HOSTAGE returns from was a stronger event with the winner, Unbridled Annsley showing grit to hold for a photo win in her next start. HOLD HER HOSTAGE shares a running line with #5 JEMEZ FALLS, one that has some buried form keying back to a place finish under similar conditions here (albeit WEATHER aided) on December 31st. 

#2 PROTOMAGIC has consistently recorded some of the strong figures in this group though most of those numbers on the turf/synth and this season the Sullivan barn has sent out runners that looked the "best on paper" and come up short (COLD) without excuse. Those factors must be considered as she projects to be a heavy favorite in this race.

#3 MAYSTART could be overlooked off that "paper form" with the recent running lines and finishing positions. However, looking at OptixNOTES shown in the Past 3 Runlines, MAYSTART recorded a B- OptixGRADE at this level off the layoff on March 19th and paired that up with a BTL/TROUBLE trip just 11-days later on March 30th. She projects to IMPROVE off that 5th place run and has been given the 28-day freshening for this race in the third start off the layoff. The distance change is noted though keying off her spring Hawthorne form/OptixFIG last year, she was consistent recorded strong numbers at a higher allowance condition and those OptixFIG stack up strongly on par/OFR here. 

#5 CELESTIAL SPIN could fall into a similar category with form that fits and the shift in trending going out for a live Mark Cristel barn. With that said, CELESTIAL SPIN has turf (and even synth) as her preferred surface with the limited dirt races she requires to transfer her top form to compete on this surface. 

Number wise #6 GUN RUSH makes sense as the race favorite, though there are other factors to consider with the shorter price. In terms of the more obvious, he has yet to race on dirt and still unproven around two turns. As far as form cycle, he could have "peaked" on April 1st recording a new top number that day and must hold his form here. 

The surface shifting to the main track was unknown for #2 STRIKE PRICE on April 6th showing up here for that dirt and Hawthorne debut. While he seemed to handle the track, the trip was a different story encountering legit TROUBLE+ that impacted his race and likely outcome. #5 KEEP ATTACKING also returns from the April 6th race and with progressive OptixFIG/GRADES into this third start of the cycle though in terms of class, he has come up short in at this level and with open company on this circuit - underneath type. 

Three-year-old #4 FAITHFUL KING could present a move forward as he returns to the N2 claiming level and a softer spot from both the March 26th (BTL OptixNOTE) and higher Optional Claiming event on April 9th. A move forward is required though now has the distance experience wheeling back today and with the TROUBLE_S and track profile favoring runners forwardly placed (open length pacesetting winner, Act a Fool) could present improvement. 

#5 COWBOY'S DREAM could be sitting on a top effort and under the radar coming into this race. They return to this OC condition, a level/surface/distance they picked up their most recent win, going back to June 17th. Their races at the level here back on October 28th and December 4th were both competitive and fit with OptixFIG in today's OFR.

They will require early pace for their stalking RunStyle and trip, though that pace should be honest looking at OptixPLOT (pre scratch) with both #1 LAVENDER EARL and #3 MOMENT in Quad I above the ParLine and joined by #4 BIG BLUE and #6 CHRISTMAS PRESENT (both up in class) project to race forwardly placed (Quad III) for today's Surface/Distance. #2 GLOBAL EMPIRE sits in a similar (literally, they overlap!) Plot position shape (Quad IV Square) to COWBOY'S DREAM, though has the tendency to break SLOG though carries the consistent B- OptixGRADE form just requiring a little bit more to win.

#7 BEEALEA is the "wild card" in this race given the distance unproven around two turns. As fast as their form, they have upside (IMPROVE) for this second start off the layoff keying off the TROUBLE trip showing run with the inside MOVE and energy GALLOP+ past the wire. 

The idea back on April 9th keyed off the pace scenario and looking for #3 WEEKEND PASS to get the right dynamic for their late run. That expected scenario did not play out as many riders took off the pace and allowed the winner, Her Gold Mine the LONE lead and a Very Slow pace to a front running open length score. Today's OptixPLOT, shows a similar scenario that should set up the Quad IV Large Square of WEEKEND PASS (X_FLOW on 4/9) with six of the seven runners (Sun Contention) above the Par Line with the 86 SpeedRate. Value is required on this type of deep closer though should be there given the complexion of this field. 

Distance is still unproven for #4 CAIRO SUMMER, though another worth a look returning from the BTL effort in the 4th place April 13th race and paired with the B- on March 26th. The OFR today is slightly lower than those two events earlier this season to further assist. 

This analysis starts with those with experience and those four have competitive races this season. #3 CANTOO returns off two BTL efforts in this third start off the layoff though will be tested here shifting to open company.  #1 POSITIONDUMONI holding progressive form with the improving OptixFIG/GRADES coming into this race. #4 CREME DE CASSIS could present a pace advantage on the others (Quad I) though must show more finish (Circle, NO_LEAD, NO_LINE) than their debut when chasing Mandrel on March 16th, a race that has not been productive.

#6 VISIONISTA has the Special Weight form from the Fair Grounds where they likely showed their abilities in those races and intent there running at the LA-bred condition. Their stablemate, #2 SALLY'S SURPRISE, a first time starter has gaps in their published works including missing March. 

First time starter #5 GETTIN DOWN is listed as the morning line favorite and likely to receive public support for Rivelli, though it should be noted they were entered back on March 23rd in a $17.5k maiden claiming race, a vet scratch, did not run that day. Stablemate #7 GLADYS ALICE also on debut shows gaps in the published works to create some reservations.

#8 ALLOTROPE worked 33.4 back on January 23rd at the OBS Sale and will make her debut here for Berndt, a barn capable with first time starters. She looks well-prepared (and seems capable for added ground going forward) with the local works and preferred of the new faces in this group. 

Morning line favorite #7 JEALOUS EYES looks to be the "speed of the speed" (Quad I) in this race, though must contend with the overall dynamic, the higher 56 SpeedRate that would require them to run a top effort to win. #1 AHEADOFTHEGAME could be their biggest challenge on the lead (Quad I Surface/Distance) and as a horse with an "every other" pattern should be sitting on a top effort today. 

#9 ROCKET HOTSHOT could have the pace they require for their late run. That dynamic is key to their race as form (B- OptixGRADE) and speed (OptixFIG) stack up with today's OFR and in this third start back off the layoff, to suggest intent.

#4 JUSTICE ONE as they project to IMPROVE from their April 6th return. With that said, they require a top effort and their race here under these conditions back in October was just average; C+ OptixGRADE. Buried form at this level also comes into play for #3 MILLARD'S SMILE keying off the pair of place finishes here last fall and pairing 79 OptixFIG, efforts that are just shy of the "winning" B OptixGRADE though enough for a minor share returning to those efforts. 

Vanden Berg horses ran lights out starting off the meet and will require #9 TIMEHASCOME to hold their form here and step up in the first start against winners -- factors to consider at the expected shorter price. 

#6 BIRDIE MACHINE declined in their speed figures after breaking their maiden on debut last August and before the layoff. They will return from that break and with the class relief where even the 70 OptixFIG from the November 4th WIDE trip stacks up with today's OFR. 

#8 KANITHAPPEN was entered here under similar conditions on March 23rd and unable to compete as a vet scratch that day. They remained at FanDuel waiting for this spot and comes back to Hawthorne and this claiming conditions where they were picked up last season and off two competitive (B- OptixGRADE) races in November. #5 SUNDAY MISCHIEF ran in that March 23rd race and regressed coming off a game effort 18-days earlier on March 5th. They have been given time to regroup, the freshening and even some buried form for this race overlooked from the April 13th race against the higher $12.5k claiming runners.