Handicapper Tips & Picks

What a tough race to figure out for the opener! There are some horses in here that appear to be career maidens and there's also very little along the lines of early pace. Really hoping 4-WICKED SUPRISE is sent away for the top as He chased when stretching out last time out while facing better and shouldn't have to go that quick early to make the lead in here. His starts while sprinting two and three races back make him a factor and he should go off at a square price. Based on speed figures alone, 6-I'M YOUR VALENTINE looks to be the clear one to beat. He has also faced better and has some starts last fall at Hawthorne that would make him the one to beat in here. My only concern is that his price will likely be very short and he will have to try to close into a pace that doesn't appear to be very strong. 5-C F V NOBODYCARES has run three races on the meet that would put him in the mix with this field today. He also doesn't appear to have much speed from the gate but with the stretch in distance there is the potential for him to rate a bit closer early.

Much like the opener, there is no standout in this race. Unlike the opener, I do expect we see some more early speed in here but not sure if it is speed that runs on through the wire. Giving the reluctant nod to 1-LUNARCHY as she drops in class off two starts that haven't been great, but haven't been terrible either. She wheels back quickly today but comes out of a $15k maiden race that had a rather solid field for that level. Things are much easier here as she should stalk early and could pounce late. At 51/2 furlongs and with a race under her belt, 6-SHORT STRAW merits a look for a barn that has had a great meet. She winged it to the front last time out and opened up an early lead. She did tire in the stretch late but today goes a 16th shorter and may have just enough in the tank to hold on to the wire. 5-JEMEZ FALLS was one that expected a bit more out of earlier in the meet. That said, she was also facing tougher and trying to close ground on days where speed held quite well. With warmer temps and minimal wind expected Thursday, she should be able to move forwardly in the lane and can contend on the drop.

Went back and looked at this race a few times. Stepped away from the computer then came back to look at it again. It just appears that 1-SUM KINDA PRETTY will be the controlling pace in this race as she makes her second start of the meet. She likely needed her last start (which wasn't a bad effort) and she was protected in there with the claiming waiver off the layoff. She's back around two turns, has the race under her belt and draws the rail. I expect she inherits the lead and dictates the pace the whole way around. 2-PROTOMAGIC comes off a decent allowance effort at Mahoning Valley in her last. She seems to be more of the stalking type and could be only 3-4 lengths back off what shouldn't be a very quick pace upfront. If she can keep in contact with the leaders early, she should be able to come running late. 3-MAYSTART is winless in 15 tries at Hawthorne but has found the board in seven of those races. She shows a lot of sprint races recently, but I feel her dirt route last June over this track was one of her better efforts. Don't discount her underneath in the gimmicks.

Based on speed figures alone, 6-GUN RUSH looks to be a standout in this spot. The main question to be answered will be if his form on the synthetic surface translates over to a conventional dirt track. He looks to have enough speed to rate close and wear down the leader in the lane. 5-KEEP ATTACKING closed nicely last out to run a good second while at a price. He is another that has the ability to sit relatively close to the pace as he may have to try to outkick Gun Rush to the wire. 4-FAITHFUL KING is lightly raced and drops out of a tough allowance test last out. I wouldn't be surprised if we see more speed from him in here as he makes his second start around two turns.

Tough spot here as 3-MOMENT is going to be the one to beat but will also be a short price. 4-BIG BLUE presents more value as he steps up off what was a solid score in his last. He has tactical speed and should stride for stride with Moment early on. Let's see who can outkick the other to the wire. 7-BEEALEA may benefit from the stretch in distance as he is likely to rate in the second flight early and could come running after the leaders in the lane. The poor start in his sprint last out was costly but a shorter field and a better break could make all the difference in here.

Really isn't much along the lines of early pace in here as I'm hopeful that 1-KITTEN ROCKS takes advantage of the inside draw and second start around two turns and gets sent away for the lead. She chased a slow pace in her last but if she inherits the front here she may never look back. 5-SILVERA has progressed in her last two starts and is the other who potentially could settle closer early on. She has had some success over the track and picks up Lezcano in the saddle, who has ridden well over this track from limited mounts. 2-TWELVE RED ROSES figures to take the majority of the action at the windows off a good effort at this level last out. She battled with Kitten Rocks through the lane for place money, narrowly missing out. Look for her to rate close early and contend the entire way once again.

Throughout the course of this meet we have seen numerous horses come in from New Orleans and run big races. 3-MILLARD'S SMILE could be another of those horses as he has followed up some decent Fair Grounds races with a couple of good works over the track. He has some tactical speed as I expect him to rate close early and contend the entire way. 9-ROCKET HOTSHOT ran some good races at this distance last fall and at the start of the spring meet. He is going to need pace to chase but with warmer temps expected and water getting down on the track you can expect that he is closing quickly late. 7-JEALOUS EYES was the favorite in the same route race that Rocket Hotshot came out of on March 16. He did show speed in that race and was pushed along as well. Let's see if he tries to clear in here or looks to rate and run on in the lane.

The top contenders appear to be on the outside in here as 9-TIMEHASCOME draws the far outside. He has speed but with other pace in the race he figures to pace some early pressure. He has been game in his starts though and has to be considered. Because he will be a short price I'll look to 6-BIRDIE MACHINE as he should be a bit better price. This is his first start of the meet as he enters off a nice string of works. Look for him to sit in the second flight early and get the jump on the closers. 8-KANITHAPPEN is a possible price play but he is tough to endorse on top with just one win from 24 lifetime starts. He also makes his first start of the meet and should be closing ground in the lane.