Handicapper Tips & Picks

6-I'M YOUR VALENTINE is the slimmest of picks. He's never shown a lot but his two best races came when he ran against claimers here last fall. He had a second and a third in that race while taking on tougher. Those races were against somewhat tougher. He seems the most logical with the drop to his lowest level ever. 4-WICKED SUPRISE also drops. He tired badly in last, his first two-turn race, but should be able to grab an easy lead in this race. Might take it all the way. 3-LOCOMOTE got away slowly and things didn't get any better in his lone start. But he is taking a significant drop in class and stretching out. Might improve.

6-SHORT STRAW tired in her debut but could be more effective in this race. She'll be racing with experience and will have to carry her speed a sixteenth less. Might last. 5-JEMEZ FALLS isn't as quick as top choice or even as quick as many of her other rivals but she does own enough speed to stay close and she might be able to finish better than any other in here. 1-LUNARCHY tired in both races but she is dropping one more time and might remain competitive throughout.

1-SUM KINDA PRETTY gets the nod. Normally she would look like the best speed but many of her rivals are sprinters stretching out so she figures to have plenty of company on the front end. However, she has had some races under pressure where she didn’t wilt. She could have that kind of day. 2-PROTOMAGIC was overmatched in her first start for this barn but she’ll be dropping to a more realistic level. Unlike many in here, she’ll be doing her best running late. Could take advantage of what might be the perfect pace. It’s been a long time since 5-CELESTIAL SPIN showed much but his trainer has started three runners at the meet, winning two, and his rider is vying for top jock hours.

Not sure if it was changing barns via claim or the addition of blinkers in last but 6-GUN RUSH had one of the better efforts of his career in last. That race was a sprint and it was contested on synthetic but there’s a good chance that form will carryover to his first race here. 4-FAITHFUL KING had a lot of things go wrong in last when he stretched for last. It didn’t help that he was racing over his head. But he’s dropping to what should be the right level today. Expecting dramatic improvement. 1-STORM’S REFLECTION is always a threat. He gets the lead almost every race. But…he just can’t seem to get the distance. His lone win came at a mile on the turf. Might have to await the lawn races before he earns another trip to the winner’s circle.

3-MOMENT is probably the most logical runner in here. He’s had five local races and won four of them including last. His prior race was his lone local loser and he still finished second there. However, this will be no easy task. There appear to be a few runners in here capable of dethroning him, including a few with decent speed. 7-BEEALEA is an interesting runner. He’s been taking on allowance company for a long time and not even state-bred allowance. He’s been facing open company. But today he drops. He’s one of the few in here racing for a tag. However, he won the only two times he ran for a tag. He could wake up. 5-COWBOYS DREAM could surprise. A heated pace seems likely and as probably the best closer in this field he could be poised to take advantage late.

None of the fillies and mares in here will ever be called quick but 1-KITTEN ROCKS, as slow as she is, just might be the best of the speed. She finished second when stretched out for the first time in almost a year. Could prove tough with that route behind her. 6-PRANCIPANTS might benefit from the stretch out. Her previous route races weren't great but she did show some late run in a sprint last out and she might appreciate the extra distance. 4-CAIRO SUMMER also stretches out. She's still eligible for the NW3 but none of her rivals are exactly lighting things up.

Like the speed that 4-CREME DE CASSIS showed in her debut race. She wound up finishing fourth, 16 lengths back, but the winner of the race was clear by 12 lengths so maybe that effort was better than it looked. But really like that she had two longish drills since that start. This race is a sixteenth farther but she could be better prepared to carry her speed all the way. 5-GETTIN DOWN is a well-bred first timer. Her recent drills, with the exception of one, have been on the slow side but still expecting her to be ready to compete at a high level. 1-POSITIONDUMANI comes of what was easily the best race of her career. She grabbed the early lead but ran into a highly-regarded first timer that ran away from the field. Still, she held for second. A similar effort by her today could make her a top contender.

3-MILLARD'S SMILE ships back from Fair Grounds. He wasn't really competitive there but was probably meeting tougher groups under the same conditions. He had a pair of dirt routes here in the fall and finished second in both after taking the lead in the stretch. If he gets to the lead in this one it could be for good. 7-JEALOUS EYES could be tough. There doesn't seem to be too much early speed other than him in this race and speed has still been king, though that wasn't quite so pronounced on Sunday. 1-AHEADOFTHEGAME doesn't always get to the lead but when he does, he's hard to beat. On the other hand, he only races evenly when he doesn't break on top. Will he or won't he?

1-SOVIET STANDARD drops to the right level. He's shown the capacity to either race on the lead or to come from off the pace but think he'll be tough on the front end in this spot. 9-TIMEHASCOME turns back in distance but could still be the only one capable of pressing top choice. He wired the field, going long, in his local debut. He was in against low-level maiden claimers there but he was well within himself. Probable favorite might live up to expectations. 6-BIRDIE MACHINE races for the first time this year but he's been working well and he's dropping to what should be the right level.