Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 TAPIT SAM continues to hold his form and given another look back at today’s N3 claiming condition presenting value. The race shape and WEATHER played against him behind open length winner, The Last Fact on April 20^th.

Many from that 4/20 race return in this spot and should note there was a BLANKET finish for the minors that included #2 IRONMAN RICHIE and #3 BOURBON TEDDY, both projected to go off shorter than TAPIT SAM and all recorded the same C+ OptixGRADE. Part of that race shape was due to #1 TRIPLE CHROME standing in the GATE as the doors opened and projected to be part of the early pace that day. His visuals PRERACE- left something to be desired and could have played a role in overall being off that day. #4 SURPRISE CAT is the one new face making his first start at this level and could move up with that change where #5 TIMEHASCOME also a subtle new face one that is stepping up the N3 condition coming off a pair of favorable trips. 

In terms of pace, #1 WILDWOOD SECRET could fall into the right trip (Quad I Square) for the distance tracking behind #4 CHOPPER sitting with first run.

In addition to CHOPPER, trainer Brian Cook will send out #5 DEVIL’S RULE, a runner still looking for their first win this season though has some buried form and figures that fits at this level and in line with the more “obvious” contenders. One of those being, #3 HATCHET CREEK with DiZeo “heating” up as of late could be on his side. Overall, a shorter price is the concern with this one that seems to need everything in his favor to win. #6 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER had everything in his favor on April 16^th when many of his main contenders scratched out of the race making him a standout by default. 

#5 BE MY BESTIE should have the edge in this field from recency, improving numbers and early speed. They were slightly carried by the track profile on April 2^nd though the two prior starts also stack up to the form of others in this field.

#4 COWGIRL FRANKIE has run competitive race and some of the stronger figures in this field and could benefit from the recency as she returns here in the third start back off the layoff. With that said, she requires a trip as one that does her better running late from off the pace. She returns from a common race with #3 FREEDOM ATTACK on 4/18 at FanDuel and returning to Hawthorne, a course she seems to prefer.

Regression was expected for #2 STAN THE CAMERAMAN after the big effort here back on March 23^rd. While he did take a slight step back on April 16^th, he still showed a lot of run staying on as the BOS against (X_FLOW) to hold second. His early speed and race shape could create a pace advantage (Quad I) in today’s race. 

#5 NORMANDY ANGEL is on the softer side number wise, though is a runner that has shown improvement with each start this season and another move forward puts him right into the mix. In addition he finds the class drop at that timing off his form cycle that could be the key. 

#3 NOBLE CREEKER recorded a solid speed figure that move up him in this race keying off the September 30th figure earned here last summer (9/24) against Special Weight company. Granted his better numbers to date have been recorded on the turf, he also has yet to race at this lower level and could show improvement in this second start of the cycle. The return race 12-days ago was with a SLOG and not asked for run in a race that had minimal change in running order. His turf numbers are right in line with #6 SANTINO'S FANTASY one that has not shown much progression in his races to date recording mid 60's OptixFIG that should transfer to this level and circuit, though also projects to be a shorter price here. 

#2 RUSSIAN HAMMER returns to the maiden claiming level for the first time since his BTL debut back on December 17^th. As a runner that has current form and a subtle “every other” pattern he should be in the right spot here and logical as the favorite. His stablemate #4 GUST OF WIND has shown run at this level though the tendency to be his own worst enemy with the pattern of gate issues (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) in each start.

#7 LIGHTNING CASHES recorded a B OptixGRADE in his debut just missing here back in December. His races since lacked excuse especially as the favorite on March 23^rd. With that said, he will make his first start off the claim for a very live barn in Elias Lopez and with Hernandez aboard that puts him back on the radar.

#7 WATCHIN THE WHEELS could also be sitting on a peak effort today as she returns to the route distance with progressive form (GRADE/FIG) in this third start back off the layoff. She also has upside with the IMPROVE OptixNOTE (and CLOSE) earned on April 16^th. 

#2 LINDALOUIMAGE also projects upside (PREP on 3/16) as she makes her second start back off the bench. Her trip began at the GATE and was not asked for her best (TACTIC-, NO_PUSH) while WIDE from the outside post. It would have been preferred to have seen her back quicker than the 48-day break, though price compensation should be there. 

As far as morning line favorite, #3 ON A TOUR she has races that make her a major player though those races take going back to 2022 as her form this season only has her as a fringe player and that is concerning as a form reversal is required here and price compensation as well. Her stablemate #4 WEEKEND PASS is “slower” though pair of that due to her RunStyle (Quad IV Square) and one that is severely pace dependent. She has lacked the pace to close into this season though when she had the pace to close at last year recorded a BTL B OptixGRADE at this level finishing second on December 11^th, a race also run on the quick one week turnaround.

As noted earlier on the card, trainer Elias Lopez has been sending out live runners this meet and returns in this race with a pair with a case to be made for both. #3 FREE LOVE showed sneaky run in her HS Indy debut and was bet down early before drifting up showing up on this circuit for her second start on June 3^rd. She broke her maiden off the layoff over this course recording one of her stronger figures to date and comes in with a second off pattern with the key distance change (ONE_TURN) that could again present a move forward with the shift to this circuit. Stablemate #6 DESSERT FIRST was entered in an N1X allowance race back on April 23^rd though a vet scratch that day will land here still retaining Olaf Hernandez, the rider named that day. 

As the projected favorite, #7 UNIFIED DREAMS fits in that role. He has been given the 43-day freshening since recording a top 93 OptixFIG effort (and taxing/HARD) win back in March at the Fair Grounds. His overall form/figures stack up on par here for connections that have been sending out some live runners. #9 PATH TO SUCCESS was able to transfer his Fair Grounds form to a competitive, BTL effort here on April 13^th. He will be tested to hold his form and figures, something that has been tougher for this horse and could be on the “downswing” of his form cycle pattern. Holding form also comes into play for #6 HIGH BROW, a player off his most recent effort, though those races being “new tops” and had to work for both place finishes after poor starts as factors to consider here. 

Looking to get creative outside that more "logical" group with horses holding upside: #4 MIDNIGHT ROYAL a lightly seasoned runner wheels right back in two weeks from the layoff return sprint that had him resenting KICKBACK early though showed a sneaky closing run behind the pacesetting winner. The timing coming right back suggests some intent and with the distance change (and kickback trip) should also see a tactical change from Roman looking to place them on the lead and could be a pacesetting threat here. #8 BEN DREAMING will make his Hawthorn debut and first start against winners. With that said, he comes in from competitive maiden races at Oaklawn Park this year and brings in progressive form as upside that should transfer here and makes him competitive with this group.

A competitive race to close out the card: #1 MERLOTTI arguably ran the “best” race back on April 23^rd despite the 4^th place result; a BTL effort and still recording a B OptixGRADE to suggest he can compete and run as a contender back under similar conditions.

#4 WINNEMAC AVENUE was overmatched this season at the Oaklawn Park Special Weight condition and should see him move up and compete with the shift to this circuit.

#5 EVEN THE WIND was given a mention in a “Hawthorne Live” broadcast back on March 31^st upgraded off a very sneaky debut (2/18) showing a ton of run while not asked to run. He improved off that debut race as expected with the B- OptixGRADE and still with a less than ideal trip that might have cost him a better placing, if not the win. Class wise this is a lateral move and should be able to hold his form on this circuit and one to follow later on shifting back to the turf and with the opportunity to run at the statebred conditions.

His stablemate #3 MINNESOTA MOON came up short without much excuse on April 13th. One could argue, he might have needed the race coming off the slight 47-day break on April 13^th though overall had little excuse with a softer pace up front and still NO_FINISH. Longshot #7 ANCIENT MAN coming out of that same race found himself against the track profile/flow finishing third and upgraded making a MOVE against (X_BIAS) the course favoring runners toward the inside.

Grass is also noted for #6 THREE ROUGH SHODS as Robertson had him entered looking for turf earlier this year at the Fair Grounds and unable to get into or the surface for those races. 

A very competitive race kicks off the Thursday card on what looks to be a beautiful day for racing. Timehascome looks to show speed stepping up off the win and the claim which may put 2-IRONMAN RICHIE in a perfect stalking position. He won from just off the pace on March 23 and may get that same trip once again. 1-TRIPLE CHROME was very unlucky last out as the timing off the gate springing coincided with him rearing badly at the start. Toss that race out. He has tactical speed and comes from a barn that will have him ready. 3-BOURBON TEDDY is hoping to move forward off his last, a spot where he just raced evenly. He will need some pace to chase ahead of him but could be charging home in the lane.

The 5 1/2 furlong distance makes this race very intriguing as at three quarters I probably would have put 6-BAREFOOTBOOLEGGER on top and at 5 furlongs I would have picked 4-CHOPPER to wire the field. With the distance in between those two, it may set up perfectly for 3-HATCHET CREEK. He ran a solid race at three quarters in his last but was run down late. 5 furlongs three races back appeared to be just a bit too short. The race two back at this distance was a solid one where he was left to chase the lone speed. Things may be a bit more contested upfront in here as he should settle just off the pace and come charging late. 6-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER was one I selected last out and he didn't disappoint. He was well rated and charged home in the lane. I expect a similar trip here but the question is if he will have enough real estate to close in time. 4-CHOPPER is all or nothing on the front end. He is going to be sent. I expect he clears but the final 16th could do him in. Let's see how far he can carry his speed.

A short field of state-bred maidens and 5-BE ME BESTIE just looks to be a standout in this spot. She has improved in each start and looks to be able to win either on the front end or from just off the pace. 3-FREEDOM ATTACK was fourth in races that Be My Bestie was second in for starts two and three back. She figures in here but will need the pace to fall apart for her to run by late. 2-GO ON GIRL is intriguing as she steps up off being claimed for just $7,500 last December. This is the perfect spot to do it as she catches a short field and has speed. Her best shot to win is to be sent to the front and see how far she can carry her speed.

Possibly a shot to catch an upset as there's horses in here with mixed form that will take a lot of action. Gave the nod to 1-WICKED SUPRISE as I hope the turn back in distance is enough to wake him back up. The starts three and four races back we solid and he may get some pace to chase today. 2-STAN THE CAMERAMAN has been knocking on the door and has speed to contend. He's probably the most consistent runner in the field but is going to take a good amount of action as well. 6-SANTINO'S FANTASY comes in from a tough Oaklawn meet but merits a look for a top barn. Let's see if the venue change and class relief wake him up.

Two Perez runners in here with a shot but I preferred the effort out of the horse that will be the longer price last time out. 4-GUST OF WIND raced at this level last out and was one of only a few horses to close significant ground that day. It came at 5 1/2 furlongs and the added 16th has to help his chances in here. 2-RUSSIAN HAMMER looked to be a standout to me last out and he disappointed as he sat closer early but has nothing for the lane. The was a field that I didn't feel was very strong either. The class drop will help but I expect he takes a lot of action in here. 1-EYE ON DESSERT debuts for Berndt and while I don't like the rail for first timers, I feel the horse is well placed and has to be considered. He gets Lasix for this spot and let's get a look at him in the paddock prior to the race and see if he takes any action.

Very little in regards to early pace in  this spot as 5-COUGAR should have little issue finding the lead. She has run well in her two starts this meet and likely won't have to work hard to make the top. Let's see if she can back things down early and kick away late. 3-ON A TOUR likes this Hawthorne strip but is going to need some pace to chase. She comes out of a race against much tougher in her last and gets back to her best distance as well. 1-NO NANNETTE NO was claimed out of her last and moves back to a two turn event. She may have enough tactical speed to get into the mix early with the lack of pace in here. Curious to see how much action she takes at the windows.

Nobody really stands out in this spot but I think it is worthy of searching for a price as I'll look to 3-FREE LOVE in here as she makes her first start of the meet. She's gone two turns in her last three but stopped badly in her last at Mahoning Valley. I think that with the turn back to the sprint, and some pace to chase upfront, she should be able to settle and rally in the lane. 1-AWESOME SUNDAY is one of those with speed as the class relief could be beneficial in here. Her race two back was good before she headed to Indiana and wasn't able to run on with that bunch. She's a good fit in here. 4-JUDY'S MS. OFFICER has had a lot of chances to pick up her second win but has yet to do it. She gets the benefit of returning to Hawthorne, where she has her only victory, as she will likely rate just off the pace and look to get the jump on the closers.

This is a really good allowance bunch as trainer Gary Scherer has 7-UNIFIED DREAMS in here, fresh off the claim in New Orleans. He has speed and won on the front end in his last. He doesn't need the lead to win though and could settle just off the pace and wait to move in the lane. Two works over the track benefit his chances as we welcome Lindey Wade back to the Hawthorne jock's room. 6-HIGH BROW loves this Hawthorne track, having never run worse than second in eight starts around the oval. He just missed in his last to a game winner in Moment and is likely to get a very similar trip from the second flight once again in here. 8-BEN DREAMING comes in off a good victory at Oaklawn in his last as he also has tactical speed to rate close. He has improved since adding Lasix and removing the blinkers as he seems to be maturing with each start.

This is another spot where trainer Jimmy DiVito has a well placed runner as 4-WINNEMAC AVENUE looks to be sitting in a great spot off a good maiden effort at Oaklawn last out. He has enough speed to get into the mix early as he was working well going into his last race and posted an improved effort in that spot. 3-MINNESOTA MOON has speed and improved with the addition of blinkers last out. I expect he gets sent away again in here but there may be some other speed to contend with. 1-MERLOTTI stretches out in here as he has raced well in a pair of sprints. He is bred to run all day and may be overlooked with some of the other contenders in this spot. 

Can find no standouts in this field so let’s see if 4-SUPRISE CAT can surprise this field. He tired badly in his last couple route races but he’s turning back in distance for this and both of his wins came at this distance. There are many in here with mediocre speed, him included, but the turn back in distance could allow him to finish with something left. 2-IRONMAN RICHIE might be the best of the speed. He finished second in a similar race last out after pressing the pace throughout. Might outlast the rest. 5-TIMEHASCOME goes for his third win in a row. This time, however, he’s doing it for new connections after getting claimed from last. He might be the most consistent of the speed is not the quickest.

This race might be too short for 6-BAREFOOT BOOTLEGGER but love the way he responded when turned back in distance for last. He made a powerful move to get to the lead midstretch and drew away from the field. He will be helped by the healthy amount of speed in this race. He could be flying late. 1-WILDWOOD SECRET was in too deep in a starter race downstate in last but he was able to eke out a win here in his previous start facing a field not too much different from this one. He should be among the early leaders once again. Could surge past late. 4-CHOPPER is probably the quickest of these but he has been tiring late. However, if speed is holding, he is always a threat to take it all the way, especially at this short sprint distance.

There are no “locks” in life, especially in horse racing but it’s hard to imagine anyone in here beating 5-BE MY BESTIE. Of course, she was beaten in her first three starts. She has gotten progressively better with each passing start and lost last by a mere nose after leading throughout. And good luck to these guys and all others connected with TWO PHILS in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. 2-GO ON GIRL seems like the only one in here with even a slim chance of beating top choice. She might be the quickest from the gate and she ran well at Turfway in last in possibly her best effort ever. She’s making her seventh start and has never finished as high as second but this will be the first time that she will face Illinois-bred maidens. She was claimed from the connections of top choice in last and will be making her first start for a new barn. We’ll see how it goes. 6-FAST KYLIE didn’t beat a rival in her lone start but she’s adding blinkers and has had a couple good drills since her career debut. Sharp connections wouldn’t leave her at this level if they didn’t think she had a realistic chance. Don’t ignore.

2-STAN THE CAMERAMAN says catch me. He’s been narrowly beaten in his two local starts and seems to own a clear advantage in the speed department. The cutback in distance could be the icing on the cake. 6-SANTINO’S FANTASY finished up the track in all his races but all were against tougher on a much tougher circuit. He doesn’t normally show much early zip but think Emigh will be able to coax a little more out of him and not let top choice get away too easily. At the end, his “class” might prevail. 3-NOBLE CREEKER drops a few levels to make his local dirt debut. His only other local start was against maiden specials on the lawn. Guessing he’ll show something more at this level.

5-COUGAR ran well in both starts this meet but could be even better today. She’s completing the route-sprint-route cycle. There isn’t a lot of speed in this race and she could be the best of it. Might never look back. 3-ON A TOUR loves this track. She beat only one in last but think that was only a prep. She drops in class and stretches out for this. She’ll be flying late. Can run by them all. Not sure what to make of 1-NO NO NANNETTE. She was claimed from last, her local debut, and was taken by sharp connections. That race was also most likely a prep since she’s been a pure route runner. She’s stretching out today but not entirely sure how she handles dirt.

Not sure it will turn out that way but 1-AWESOME SUNDAY looks quite a bit quicker than her other speedy rivals. Of course she has been stopping badly at shorter distances but she has never been in this easy. Might last. 4-JUDY’S MS. OFFICER sports the highest recent speed figures and is in good form. Those “figs” don’t always translate well from synthetic dirt (no matter what they say) but she has raced well here in the past. Turns back in distance. Will be coming late and could run by the collapsing speed. 3-FREE LOVE is another turning back in distance. She’s been displaying good speed in routes but has tired badly in recent starts. The turn back in distance could allow her to finish with plenty left.

It was hard to separate the chances of 6-HIGH BROW and 7-UNIFIED DREAMS in my mind but High Brow finally won out, mainly to his affinity for this racetrack. He’s had eight local races; winning four and finishing second in the rest of them. He might not have the early speed that has been winning most of the races but he won’t be too far back and he’ll finish with authority. Unified Dreams makes his local debut and his first start for this barn after getting claimed from last. This gelding wired the field in last but he is just as capable when coming from off the pace. 2-PAPA’S LUCKY SEVEN adds blinkers. He hadn’t been effective since getting claimed by this barn, though he ran well here in the past, and the blinkers just might force him to focus a bit more. We’ll see.

4-WINNEMAC AVENUE has never finished better than fourth and never closer than seven lengths behind but he has been taking on some very tough rivals at Oaklawn. That certainly doesn’t make him a lock in this spot but he might just breathe a sigh of relief against this easier field, especially with the cutback in distance. 1-MERLOTTI stretches out. He has a running style and definitely a pedigree that is crying out for more distance. Top pick is likely to take a lot of action which means you could get a great price on this one. 3-MINNESOTA MOON benefitted from the addition of blinkers and led most of the way in last. But he was under pressure most of the way and just couldn’t last. There doesn’t appear to be that much other speed in this race though I would expect stretcher Blame Shifter to press him early and maybe even steal the lead.

T 1 Shiny New Penny 8 Muscling Vegas 5 Last Page First

P 10 Moonstruck 9 All Of Me 8 Dangerous Curves

T 8 Ghostly Casper 1 Musical Ride 5 Djimon

T 8 Creed Hanover 6 Stonebridge Bomber 2 Airborne

T 2 Northern Magenta 9 Southwind Cerveza 4 Cardio Muscle

P 9 Premier Bettina 8 Nimah Franco 7 Rockinwithcustard

T 9 Snapchat Sam 7 Lite The Candles 1 Eternally Hanover

T 8 Brace For Landing 5 All Star Yankee 4 Resolve To Win

T 1 Warrawee Yes 2 Kenogami Courage 4 Hp Extra Ice

T 3 Warrawee Yang 2 New Rules 4 Overpayment

P 8 Artistic Pick 7 Machal Jordan 6 High Flyin Jamie