Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 SUPERSTAR DIVA was a standout and ran to picking up the March 26^th win. She will look to pair up results returning here and of the Quad I flight has the edge (Square) over the #3 SMILE AT THE STORM and #4 BAILESTON LASSIE.

While SUPERSTAR DIVA looks to win the battle, winning the war is the test with #6 FANCY EMPRESS returning from BTL effort on April 16^th and holds upside and a strong late kick – Large Square. #1 TAP N TWINE is softer number wise for this level, though does present a move forward with the rider change (TACTIC-) and trip returning from that same April 16^th common race. 

The Large Square of #4 BERTRADA is tough to ignore in this spot and race shape as she looks to stalk #6 MY LADY SLEW with first run. #5 AUNT STELLA is also positioned in Quad I and capable to land in the right trip. She carries overall upside wheeling back from the EX – EXCUSE given the WEATHER conditions and legit TROUBLE_S out of the gate just one week ago.

#1 DASH TO THE CASH has had many opportunities to clear the maiden condition and in that series many races where they stood out as the horse to beat. That is noted as they appear in a similar role today (OptixPLOT) and figures that standout over others in this group. Eventually he should land in the right time and place, today could be that day and while logical some reservations at a shorter number are still present. Rival #6 A P BLAZING GREEN follows DASH out of the two starts this season and while GREEN has shown improvement number wise race-to-race his C+ OptixFIG still sit below DASH.

#2 SILVER CHILLER was given consideration on debut and coming off that GREEN debut for his second start projecting IMPROVE on April 16^th. Trip wise he had a less than ideal ride (TACTIC-) and WIDE trip and likely factored into the decision for a rider change here. 

#2 HEY MA returns to make her third start this season and presents upside with a potential pace advantage – Quad I. She has lacked finish as the FTQ (first to quit) on March 16^th though upgraded as the BOS (best of the speed) setting that contested pace against the dynamic. There are not many others that have shown the ability to run on or near the lead.

#4 MAIDEN ROCK has buried N2 form at this claiming level keying off races going back to last season and a B- OptixGRADE/67 OptixFIG that stacks up on par from March 30^th.

The class drop could have #1 SWEET FRAULINE closer to the pace today and overall moves up on the considerable class change. Her stablemate does not have the class edge returning to the similar conditions she has been racing at this season, though has shown some progress this season and from time-to-time can pop with a big race that puts her in the mix.

#5 GOTTA BE KITTEN ME probably were the words out of her connections mouth when she took a legit stumble (TROUBLES+) coming out of the gate making a very belated racing return after 1580-days off. Going well back in her past performances she has shown early speed in her races and with a clean break should be forward in here. Some intent should be expected given that excuse in the layoff return and now wheeling back in just 10-day from that excuse. 

As far as #2 LONG TALL WOMAN she has shown to be consistently “faster” than her rivals in this race giving her an edge coming back today for Hernandez. She came up short on April 23^rd, though off the race shape, complexion and pairing layoff lines, there was some space for her to get beat that day and indeed played out accordingly.

#1 SAMARITA finishing a BTL second in the 4/23 common race was sitting on an improvement effort in the second start off the layoff. She will be tested to hold her form here again on the quick turnaround and now coming back on shorter rest again following the new top 80 OptixFIG.

Perhaps the biggest threat to LONG TALL WOMAN will come from #4 AVASARALA one that carries upswing of an “every other” pattern and has back numbers (83-87 OptixFIG) from around this time last season, figures that stack right up on today’s race par/OFR and in line with LTW. 

#7 OMAHA RED is a proven type and has the benefit of recency shipping in to Hawthorne for his connections. The races this season stack up on par and many races (including a trio of speed figures from the Spring of 2022) standout in this field. That edge will be required to hold form here and in terms of trip. While OMAHA RED has the Large Quad I Square OptixPLOT, the “Sun” Contention and higher 58 SpeedRate could benefit runners from off the pace.

#6 IT’S BOBS BUSINESS sitting in Quad II/IV (Square) was dominant B+ OptixGRADE in both of his races last season at Canterbury Park. He carries upside off those races recorded as a juvenile and even off those figures fits on par and in with the others in this field. #2 UNCASHED is another sophomore in this field and one that has recency and foundation over this course. He stayed on as the BOS to hold on April 20^th, though finds himself in this spot as a significant step up in class. 

This is an interesting pace scenario looking at OptixPLOT. Even though the “Snowflake” is the Contention with a nearly vacant Quad I, the higher 50 SpeedRate (horses above the ParLine) is in play as well as the OptixRPM with six of the eight shown as EP RunStyle. One of those runners, #8 AALIYAH EZRI ships in for DiVito and off another layoff following a vet scratch from a higher N1X allowance back in February at Oaklawn Park. She has upside based on her prior form and figures while finding the shift to run on this circuit could allow her the best chance to compete under the allowance condition.

Given the race shape, the ability to finish should be key and upgrading of the local runners: #1 DIALED INNA, returning from the show finish making a MOVE against X_BIAS on April 13^th; #3 QUILTING PARTY also projects to improve with the distance change returning to a route from the WIDE trip in her second start off the layoff. 

Both #2 GAGOOTS and #5 KRAMDEN return from the April 20^th common race where they both took contact (TROUBLE_S) at the break and were compromised by the early incident and on a day that it was tough WEATHER wise to make up ground with minimal change in running order. #5 KRAMDEN has the more natural early speed of the two and could have the pace edge in this race overall with GAGOOTS running on late – Quad IV Square. 

#8 FLOWERS FOR LISA has recorded some of the higher figures in this field though his form as of late and now as a 10-year-old has been on a decline. That change is form is likely part of the reason trainer Kenny Jansen shows up on this circuit and with the considerable class drop. 

Despite only six in here I felt this was a very competitive race to open the day. Went to 6-FANCY EMPRESS as it looks to me like there will be a decent amount of pace to close into and we have seen the track start to even out, which should help her chances. She was hung wide in her last but with the ability to save a little more  ground in the turn here, let's see if she can rally in the lane. 5-ARCH FLYER tossed clunkers in her last two but if she can get back to her first start of the meet, she has a big chance. She did have an excuse in her race two back but really not sure why she raced so poorly at Fairmount. Let's see if the Hawthorne return wakes her back up. 3-SMILE AT THE STORM has speed but doesn't need the lead to win. With some other speed in here I think she may be better off rating just off the pace and looking to wear down the leaders in the lane. Her recent work was sharp as she may be sitting on a big effort.

I'm looking to a Joel Campbell training double to open the Sunday card as the 4-BERTRADA looks to be in a great spot here. She ran well in her first start of the meet and looks to sit in the second flight early with this bunch. With the added 16th off her last start I expect she is able to run down the speed in the lane. 6-MY LADY SLEW is one with speed as she may be at her best when on the front. She was left to chase in her last and although she battled into the lane, she was not able to run on with the top 2. I expect she is sent away today to try to clear and wire this field. 5-AUNT STELLA has been busy as she makes her eighth start of the year today. Early on she posted some good race before tailing off a bit. Her last was an improvement and she does get her best distance for this spot.

Today is the day!!! 1-DASH TO THE CASH is going to get his long overdue victory. This five-year-old gelding always tries hard and is very consistent. Be it distance, bias, luck, whatever it has been, he just hasn't gotten that first victory yet. In here I'm expecting the track to play evenly and I believe there's enough pace to chase. I hope he hugs the rail the entire turn and runs by them all in the lane. 4-MAN ON ATTACK chased the pace in his last and battled into the lane before drifting out and giving way late. I expect he is sent for position today and let's see if he can make the top. 6-A P BLAZING GREEN ran a sneaky good race in his last as well. He rated close in there before also drifting a bit at the top of the lane. I don't think he will be too far off the early pace either as he should contend throughout.

Really wondering if Reavis runs both in here as Sweet Fraulein would be a heavy favorite but is also very scary, taking a big class drop in her first off the claim. Thinking this is a spot for 6-BELLS OF JOY to grab a win as she has gradually improved in recent races and may get some pace to chase. 1 for 28 lifetime is tough to endorse but with no standout in this spot she looks to have her best shot for win number two. 4-MAIDEN ROCK is the horse I would have looked to if Centeno was in the saddle as he was last out, but he chose Bells of Joy over this runner. I like both starts on the meet for Maiden Rock and felt her most recent race was better than it looks on paper as that was a quality bunch. Let's see if she can rate close enough early today and run on in the lane. There's a big chance that 2-HEY MA makes the top and never looks back. With the other potential speed likely to come from a horse making its second start off a four year layoff, if that runner doesn't go then Hey Ma could shake loose and get brave on the front end. She has the speed to clear but stamina is the question.

A little bit of musical riders going on in this spot but that may be all it takes to get 2-LONG TALL WOMAN back into the winner's circle. She rode a three race win streak into her last but appeared to get started a bit late in that spot. With Emigh aboard I expect to see her sitting off a pace that is likely to be contested early and charging in the lane. 6-COME ON SWEET PEA could benefit from the pace battled upfront as well. This is her first start back of the meet but she is working well and may fall into a perfect trip. Tavares is a solid finisher as well and could have her charging in the lane. If any horse does clear it is likely to be 7-FIRST KITTEN as she comes in off a good Allowance score in her last. If she can outkick Princess Stella to the lead she may never look back.

This race could go some many different ways as there's a lot of talented runners in here but many are trying two turns for the first time. Going to give the nod to 8-AALIYAH EZRI as she makes her first start of the year but comes in with a nice pattern of works for a barn that looks to have a big week. She won a short stretch mile event in her last start of 2022 at Oaklawn and had to clear from the outside to win that race. The draw shouldn't be a concern here but I do expect she gets more of a stalking trip as there does appear to be a decent amount of pace to her inside. 6-BIRDIE BE GONE is one of those sprinters that stretches out as she was a good winner earlier in the meet when in for a tag. This is another Berndt runner that appears to be well placed as the only question will be how she handles the distance. 3-QUILTING PARTY ran well around two turns here last fall and stretches back out again after a start that she likely needed in her last. She does figure to settle back early but there may be a good amount of pace in here as she should come charging in the lane.

Could be really right or really wrong here. In this spot it appears that the pace should be quick and contested upfront. If that is the case I expect things to fall apart in the lane as I'm hoping 2-GAGOOTS can turn things around off a really poor performance in his first start of the meet. He did get jostled around in his last which may have worked against him. With clear sailing I am expecting a much improved performance. 6-BEHAVIN MYSELF ran a decent race in his last and should also benefit from the quick pace upfront. He likes this track and this distance and could continue to improve in here. The tough one to figure out is 8-FLOWERS FOR LISA as he looks to turn things around in here off a tough start last out as well. He finds things a bit easier in here and is another that should be charging late.

What to do. This track has been so speed favoring all meet, I was caught off guard on Thursday when almost every one of the runners came from off the pace to win. So what will today bring? 2-SUPERSTAR DIVA might be one of the few in here capable of winning on the lead or off the pace, although since she’s in the first race, her rider isn’t going to be aware of any kind of bias. But, she is good at the distance and she’s had three wins and four thirds from her last seven races. 3-SMILE AT THE STORM has improved with each passing local start. She was a dominating wire-to-wire winner in last making her two-for-two at the distance. Wouldn’t be surprised if she wired them again. 6-FANCY EMPRESS added blinkers for her last race. Although they didn’t seem to help that much, she only split the field, number of runners came out of that contest to run well their next time out. She certainly figures here. 

4-BERTRADA looks logical. She did finish in the money in two of her last three races, including her local debut. However, she’s had plenty of chances to earn her third win and keeps coming up short. Slim pick. 6-MY LADY SLEW looks like the best of the speed. However, she ran out of gas in both starts this year and she’ll have to try to carry her speed and extra sixteenth of a mile in this spot. 5-AUNT STELLA is the only one in the race with more than two victories. She is a one-paced runner who seems likely to be racing fairly close to the lead. She could inherit the front end late if the rest of the speed fades again.

Will this finally be the day? 1-DASH TO THE CASH has looked like the one to beat in virtually all of his races but he remains a maiden after 15 starts. This late runner owns good stretch acceleration but he wasn’t able to capitalize on it with the speed favoring conditions he often faces. But closers thrived on Thursday. If that condition prevails, he could finally find himself in the winner’s circle. He hasn’t shown much speed so far but 2-SILVER CHILLER switches to a rider with a seven-pound weight advantage who has been great at getting horses out of the gate quickly. Without a lot of other speed in this race, they could leave with the lead and never look back. 4-MAN ON ATTACK has shown decent speed but little stamina. Maybe that will change today.

Yep. Somebody will win this race. Guessing it will be 2-HEY MA. She looks like the best speed and might be able to carry to all the way with the cutback in distance. 1-SWEET FRAULEIN would seem to be much the best in this spot but she was claimed for $15k in her last start and drops in for $6250 today. Not exactly a vote of confidence unless they just want to cash a bet or are taking the risk of losing a few bucks to get her eligible for starter allowances though she doesn’t seem talented enough to thrive under those conditions. The lightly-raced 3-BUMPER GIRL just graduated. Her numbers don’t match up with some of her rivals but at least she’s in good form.

There is plenty of speed in this short field but 7-FIRST KITTEN could be just a little quicker than the rest of them. Daylight allowance winner of last has always been good here. She won four of her eight local races and finished in the money another three time. An alert break could have her on the lead from start to finish. Of course, if top pick doesn’t break alertly or if she winds up having to fight for the lead from a long time, 2-LONG TALL WOMAN can fly by them all. She also loves it at Hawthorne, with seven wins from her 18 lifetime starts (17 at Hawthorne). She finished second at this level in her most recent start but could be poised to avenge that loss today. 1-SAMARITA finished a half-length behind Long Tall Woman in her last start. She led for much of that race but ultimately tired late. She is, however, making her third start of the meet. Could be better prepared to stay competitive throughout.

Great race. No one really stands out. However, was impressed with the win by 2-UNCASHED in last. He set blistering fractions and was still able to draw off under a hand ride. He’ll be meeting more accomplished runners here, including a couple stakes winners, but if he breaks sharply like that again, there might be no catching him. 7-OMAHA RED’s both wins were scored on this track. Lately he’s been taking on tough company at Oaklawn and Fair Grounds. He’s quick from the gate but also has the capacity to make a late run. Don’t really know what to make of 6-ITS BOBS BUSINESS. He won both his races against Minnesota breds, including a $100k stakes race. He’s meeting open company for the first time but his wins were so effortless and dominating, you have to figure that he’s capable of running with this type. 4-LOOKIN FOR BALA, the other state-bred stakes winner, ran well in all his races. He did finish a couple lengths behind Uncashed the last time they met but, other than that rival, he might be the best of the speed. Could be right there throughout.

Good betting race. This field appears to be pretty evenly matched. Going to take a bit of a flyer on 3-QUILTING PARTY. She was well beaten as the favorite in her first start of the meet but she had a good work since and she’s stretching out to what has been her best distance. In three races at a mile seventy, she won two and was barely beaten in the other. 8-AALIYAH EZRI wired the field, on a muddy track at Oaklawn in her most recent start. She has always faced what might be considered better rivals but with the exception of last, and a turf race at Ellis, she hasn’t shown a lot. But, with the class relief, she could be tough. 4-MAKEMEBELIEVE finished second in her lone local start, a length behind top choice. She owns competitive speed. Might fight for the lead throughout.

4-TROY OUNCE seeks to wire the field. He did just that two races back and just failed to last in his most recent start. He could face some early pressure which could compromise his chances but he is meeting slightly easier than he did in that last race and he might be able to put them away. 1-WHERE’D THE DAY GO earned his third career victory in his last start but that was his first win in years. He owns decent speed which will have him in early competition but don’t think he’s quite as quick as top choice. 6-BEHAVIN MYSELF is another with decent speed though not quite as much as top choice. He’ll be stalking the pace hoping Troy Ounce runs out of gas.