Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 SUPERSTAR DIVA was a standout and ran to picking up the March 26^th win. She will look to pair up results returning here and of the Quad I flight has the edge (Square) over the #3 SMILE AT THE STORM and #4 BAILESTON LASSIE.

While SUPERSTAR DIVA looks to win the battle, winning the war is the test with #6 FANCY EMPRESS returning from BTL effort on April 16^th and holds upside and a strong late kick – Large Square. #1 TAP N TWINE is softer number wise for this level, though does present a move forward with the rider change (TACTIC-) and trip returning from that same April 16^th common race. 

The Large Square of #4 BERTRADA is tough to ignore in this spot and race shape as she looks to stalk #6 MY LADY SLEW with first run. #5 AUNT STELLA is also positioned in Quad I and capable to land in the right trip. She carries overall upside wheeling back from the EX – EXCUSE given the WEATHER conditions and legit TROUBLE_S out of the gate just one week ago.

#1 DASH TO THE CASH has had many opportunities to clear the maiden condition and in that series many races where they stood out as the horse to beat. That is noted as they appear in a similar role today (OptixPLOT) and figures that standout over others in this group. Eventually he should land in the right time and place, today could be that day and while logical some reservations at a shorter number are still present. Rival #6 A P BLAZING GREEN follows DASH out of the two starts this season and while GREEN has shown improvement number wise race-to-race his C+ OptixFIG still sit below DASH.

#2 SILVER CHILLER was given consideration on debut and coming off that GREEN debut for his second start projecting IMPROVE on April 16^th. Trip wise he had a less than ideal ride (TACTIC-) and WIDE trip and likely factored into the decision for a rider change here. 

#2 HEY MA returns to make her third start this season and presents upside with a potential pace advantage – Quad I. She has lacked finish as the FTQ (first to quit) on March 16^th though upgraded as the BOS (best of the speed) setting that contested pace against the dynamic. There are not many others that have shown the ability to run on or near the lead.

#4 MAIDEN ROCK has buried N2 form at this claiming level keying off races going back to last season and a B- OptixGRADE/67 OptixFIG that stacks up on par from March 30^th.

The class drop could have #1 SWEET FRAULINE closer to the pace today and overall moves up on the considerable class change. Her stablemate does not have the class edge returning to the similar conditions she has been racing at this season, though has shown some progress this season and from time-to-time can pop with a big race that puts her in the mix.

#5 GOTTA BE KITTEN ME probably were the words out of her connections mouth when she took a legit stumble (TROUBLES+) coming out of the gate making a very belated racing return after 1580-days off. Going well back in her past performances she has shown early speed in her races and with a clean break should be forward in here. Some intent should be expected given that excuse in the layoff return and now wheeling back in just 10-day from that excuse. 

As far as #2 LONG TALL WOMAN she has shown to be consistently “faster” than her rivals in this race giving her an edge coming back today for Hernandez. She came up short on April 23^rd, though off the race shape, complexion and pairing layoff lines, there was some space for her to get beat that day and indeed played out accordingly.

#1 SAMARITA finishing a BTL second in the 4/23 common race was sitting on an improvement effort in the second start off the layoff. She will be tested to hold her form here again on the quick turnaround and now coming back on shorter rest again following the new top 80 OptixFIG.

Perhaps the biggest threat to LONG TALL WOMAN will come from #4 AVASARALA one that carries upswing of an “every other” pattern and has back numbers (83-87 OptixFIG) from around this time last season, figures that stack right up on today’s race par/OFR and in line with LTW. 

#7 OMAHA RED is a proven type and has the benefit of recency shipping in to Hawthorne for his connections. The races this season stack up on par and many races (including a trio of speed figures from the Spring of 2022) standout in this field. That edge will be required to hold form here and in terms of trip. While OMAHA RED has the Large Quad I Square OptixPLOT, the “Sun” Contention and higher 58 SpeedRate could benefit runners from off the pace.

#6 IT’S BOBS BUSINESS sitting in Quad II/IV (Square) was dominant B+ OptixGRADE in both of his races last season at Canterbury Park. He carries upside off those races recorded as a juvenile and even off those figures fits on par and in with the others in this field. #2 UNCASHED is another sophomore in this field and one that has recency and foundation over this course. He stayed on as the BOS to hold on April 20^th, though finds himself in this spot as a significant step up in class. 

This is an interesting pace scenario looking at OptixPLOT. Even though the “Snowflake” is the Contention with a nearly vacant Quad I, the higher 50 SpeedRate (horses above the ParLine) is in play as well as the OptixRPM with six of the eight shown as EP RunStyle. One of those runners, #8 AALIYAH EZRI ships in for DiVito and off another layoff following a vet scratch from a higher N1X allowance back in February at Oaklawn Park. She has upside based on her prior form and figures while finding the shift to run on this circuit could allow her the best chance to compete under the allowance condition.

Given the race shape, the ability to finish should be key and upgrading of the local runners: #1 DIALED INNA, returning from the show finish making a MOVE against X_BIAS on April 13^th; #3 QUILTING PARTY also projects to improve with the distance change returning to a route from the WIDE trip in her second start off the layoff. 

Both #2 GAGOOTS and #5 KRAMDEN return from the April 20^th common race where they both took contact (TROUBLE_S) at the break and were compromised by the early incident and on a day that it was tough WEATHER wise to make up ground with minimal change in running order. #5 KRAMDEN has the more natural early speed of the two and could have the pace edge in this race overall with GAGOOTS running on late – Quad IV Square. 

#8 FLOWERS FOR LISA has recorded some of the higher figures in this field though his form as of late and now as a 10-year-old has been on a decline. That change is form is likely part of the reason trainer Kenny Jansen shows up on this circuit and with the considerable class drop.