Handicapper Tips & Picks

The value of the race, #4 BORN AGAIN GEORGE coming back to Hawthorne and as a horse that has been able to show early speed in the past. That could be the key in this race as others in this field lack that RunStyle. BORN AGAIN GEORGE lacked the win at this condition last season and shares running lines with today’s rivals including back on December 30^th when favored.  Those runners; #1 EASTER MUSIC, #2 D’ARCHER and #5 RISKY BOY are the most logical in this field and number/form wise match up with each other in this event. Visuals and post time odds could assist in trying to find some separation with that trio.

Trainer Antonio Meraz had a strong Sunday showing with a pair of wins sending out live runners and could see that trend continue into this Thursday card. They return in this spot with #3 SHACKLEFORD STRONG, first off the claim. Going back to the April 23^rd race day, they were favored and compromised by the poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) as well as the track profile (X_BIAS) and showed a lot of run making a MOVE and CLOSE (albeit Flow aided – VF early) in the outcome. While improvement is expected it is required here with the class rise.

#1 SOUPER FORTUNE returns in this spot and first off the claim for David Reid. Class wise they find subtle relief in today’s event and could present a move forward in this third start back off the layoff. The recent gate issues (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) played a role in the return races this season and must be considered (value wise) and improved on to compete here. #2 CHRISTMAS PRESENT also finds some changes for this race primarily distance returning to the sprint (ONE_TURN) a move that has been used effectively with this runner in the past.

As far as the pace of this race both SOUPER FORTUNE and CHRISTMAS PRESENT have been able to show early speed and that will be key as #6 THE LAST FACT projects to be on the lead and dangerous if left alone. They are returning from a LONE lead win back on April 20^th, a day when the high wind WEATHER conditions made the course tougher to make up ground on. THE LAST FACT projects to REGRESS from that earned figure and has the hurdle with both the class rise and post position change to overcome as the projected favorite. 

As the projected favorite, #6 IMPULSIVENESS is logical returning in this spot and condition. Surface was an unknown back on April 23^rd returning to dirt, though handled the surface while compromised by race shape. The slower pace created a dynamic with minimal change in running order from start to finish with Wildwood’s Warrior going gate to wire. The race dynamic there could also present upside for #1 WHERE’S LUCKY, a horse that has at times under performed though has some steady progressive (buried) form coming into the race and could surprise at a price.

#5 KEEN RESPONSE also deserving of a big look and major upgrade returning from the EX – EXCUSE on April 6^th. They had legit TROUBLE+ in that race and showed run to suggest they can compete under similar conditions with a clean trip. 

#1 WOLF HUNTER is the most experienced in this field and while that come with reservations, they fit into today’s race. Most of their races to date, they have been running distances longer than their ideal while overmatched in against Special Weight on different circuits. The higher maiden claiming races this season at the Fair Grounds stack up in line on this circuit at today’s Special Weight par/OFR to suggest this condition is one where Wolf Hunter can compete. Perez will also sent out #3 RUSSIAN STANDARD to make their debut on this circuit. The barn had a similar shipper last month called Black Russian, a horse that did not have impact on the outcome finishing 6^th, however had a “trip” from the rail and showed run and seemed to have some intent on the day.

The first time starters are worth a mention making their first start and a spot where a “new face” could jump up. #8 EASY FAST has a pair of recent local works though gaps this year in training out at Oaklawn Park and prior to the recorded 4/27 drill. #2 REJECTION HURTS brings in a steady local work tab, though noted as they were entered to debut last September at Canterbury Park in a statebred Special Weight event before being scratched and will make a belated debut here. 

As noted earlier, Meraz shows up in this spot with #6 UNCLE HEADLEY a horse that is tough to dismiss showing up on this circuit and exiting the higher level Optional Claiming events out of town and landing here with that relief in a Hawthorne debut. As far as #2 PRIZE FIGHTER they have the benefit of local experience and capable to improve in this second start back off the layoff while the intent in play returning to similar conditions from the April 16^th race.

#1 VERRAZANOINTHESKY also returns from the April 16^th race and should offer value in this spot as they could get overlooked off the recent running lines. There is more to the story following the visuals noting the TROUBLE in the March 26^th trip and improving with a BTL effort last month in that third place finish.

Value also keeps #4 BRUCE BANNER in the mix as a runner that has the pair of Hawthorne races on the main track from last fall (10/29 and 11/13) that stack up strongly number wise for today’s level and sit in line with the top efforts recorded from those morning line favorites.

As far as the Fair Grounds shippers #7 MONGOLIAN BEE and #8 GALLANT BUCK they will make a lateral move from their races this season into today’s race and race par/OFR and share common running lines from the April 16^th N2L claiming event where both required to show more to win on the day though overall not much between them individually. 

The main players in this race return from the common race under similar conditions on April 20^th. The winner of the race, I Don’t Know Margo was well-intended and handled as they were sent to the lead and controlled gate to wire. The place finisher, #4 BEG BORROW N STEAL has run the same race at this condition in both starts this season and while they expect to hold their form, a move forward is required to win. They ran on a common race on March 30^th with #1 FROSTED ÉCLAIR, one that lost their rider at the start (TROUBLES+) though continued to run riderless and crossed the wire first and clear of the others. Perhaps that “race” caused some “regression” on April 20^th as she came up short with the WIDE trip losing ground in the final ¼ mile. Frosted Éclair has some run though also can be her own biggest hurdle with the gate issues and pattern of breaking slow that has been present since her debut and must be considered with the rail draw. She is listed as the longest on the morning line and a value case can be made in that role.

#6 GHAALEB’S RANGER was giving up some recency on the day returning from 272-day layoff and based on the effort (B- MOVE) and back numbers can project improvement today as a contender. #7 CAT ROYALE also returning from a layoff for Boyce, raced one pace and must improve not only from the effort three weeks ago but overall with softer numbers compared to others in this field. #5 TIME BREAK has been average (C+ OptixGRADES) at the level in the races this season and could get support from the public from the paper form pairing up show finishes. 

As far as #4 GITA’S LAD he has recorded some of the higher figures in this field and running back to his top efforts make him a major player. With that said, he ran one of those “tops” returning from the layoff on March 30^th and could see some regression here and noted class rise. To the credit of the new connections, he has been given 42-days since that effort a positive in this case.

Regression could threaten his former stablemate, #5 EMPIRE BUILDER one that 28-days recorded a top effort (B+ OptixGRADE/90 OptixFIG) returning from the layoff as the BOS, though was drifting out late despite being clear and visually all out in that effort. His current stablemate, #7 PROTONIC POWER should sit favorably in his current form cycle returning from the April 16^th race and one that has shown a level of class to suggest he can hold his form today.

#8 KHOZAN’S VALENTINE also should hold his form returning here in the third start off the layoff. He has progressive OptixFIG and competitive races at this level going back to the December 31^st race compromised at the start and far outside post. As far as today’s route distance, he can handle and has won around two turns when in at the right level, trip, and timing. 

Tough to know where #2 PACIFIC VIEW stands on ability as she broke slow (SLOG) on debut and was taken WIDE and in hand (NO_PUSH) not asked for run in her December 31^st debut at Oaklawn Park for a COLD barn at the time. She returns here with every change possible from owner/barn, circuit, class and picking up blinkers. She has some steady works and would appear as if intent is in play. 

#3 MISS MIA is proven and has shown her most competitive races when at the maiden claiming level and upgraded with that class change here. #6 SALLY’S SURPRISE also showing up as a second time starter could improve with the drop alone and her figure from the debut two weeks ago sits in line with her rivals here – though might not offer much value as the assigned morning line favorite. #1 THE SCORE IS EVEN also projects to find public support for Becker and as a new face. She is making her debut here as a four-year-old, slightly better than five-year-old mare #5 DILLYDILLYDIAMOND also showing up for a first start.

THE SCORE IS EVEN was scheduled to debut on April 20^th, a vet scratch that day and from a common race with others returning here. #7 SONG OF AMERICA going off as the second choice that day and projects attention here could have the foundation as an edge, though as an individual has lacked progression and number wise on the “slower” side. #8 LADA KALINA with the CLOSE to place has higher figures and overall has been more competitive than Song of America. #4 TWICK OR TWEAT remains one to follow as she has been her biggest hurdle especially at the GATE and pattern of SLOG going back to the opening day (3/5) debut. With that said, she has shown run and a sneaky strong finish (CLOSE) and GALLOP+ back on April 20^th should not be ignored.

And intriguing race for the opener as there really isn't much pace in here. While it looks like 2-D'ARCHER may be the one with the early speed, 1-EASTER MUSIC has popped with surprising speed at times from the rail in the past. You do have to dig deeper to find those starts but he comes off a solid effort last out and has been at his best over this track. 5-RISKY BOY also merits a look as he has been very consistent this meet. He has been left to chase lone speed in numerous starts, but with the track evening out, things may set up nicely for him in here. 2-D'ARCHER likely gets sent away as well as he comes in off the layoff. He's been solid in his two starts on the meet as six of his seven career wins have come at this distance.

This race is likely to work one of two ways. If 6-THE LAST FACT can clear, there's the potential he wires this field. If he is headed, he may give way. I'm thinking he is able to clear in here as he has won two of three on the meet, both on the front end. The March 26 race could be tossed out as well as that was a race where the horses were delayed in the paddock due to storms. Expect another solid effort today. 5-PUBLIC SAFETY ran a solid race back on April 9 as he recovered from a slow start to close belatedly in the lane. He's likely going to need another in here to press The Last Fact to win, but with the track evening out in regards to bias, there's a shot he can run by late. 4-IDEA MAN is one of two in here from the barn of David Reid. He ran a good race against tougher at Indiana in his last but looks to be a good fit in this spot as he makes his second start off the layoff.

The bump at the break was all it took to wipe out the chances for 2-AWESOME WILLY last out as Dream Island was able to get away well and never look back. Flattering that race, Dream Island just wired a field of Allowance runners a week ago. Wildwood's Warrior also came out of the race with Awesome Willy to win his next out too. The break will be the key, but if Awesome Willy can clear, he may never look back. 6-IMPULSIVENESS is going to need some pace to chase as he makes his second start of the meet. After getting away slowly in his last he did rate closer to the slow pace and battled to the wire. The pace should be quicker in here as he should be closing quickly. 3-OPTION runs his best while on the lead but it doesn't appear that he is quick enough to make the top in here. From a stalking position he could run a similar race to his last as he may be chasing the entire way.

I had an incredibly tough time with this race. There were so many routes to go but none of these truly stood out. Based on connections, works, and breeding I gave the nod to 2-REJECTION HURTS. He's one of two in here from the barn of Joel Berndt as they prepare for the Canterbury meet, but Berndt's Minnesota bred runners are solid and this one picks up his top rider in Roman. Lasix for the debut and a nice pattern of works may have him ready at first asking. 5-MINING CAMP has put together some solid races on this meet as a repeat of his last figures to have him in contention the entire way. There's not a ton of speed in here based off those who have run as he may look to shake loose early and never look back. The DeVito barn often does well at first asking as 8-EASY FAST breaks from the outside. He has also worked consistently toward his return and gets Lasix as well first out. Giles has ridden very well this meet and should have him close early.

A really solid race here to start the Late Pick 4 and close out the Pick 5 as numerous horses are in with a shot. Went to 6-UNCLE HEADLEY off a nice performance against a good group at Keeneland last out. He should get enough pace to chase in here and has posted a couple of good drills over the track. 5-I'M YOUR CAPTAIN is one of those with speed as he ran a big race last out. The move to state-bred company may have helped, but it appears that if he can shake loose early he may be tough to catch. 2-PRIZE FIGHTER just missed at this level in his last as he chased a quick pace and ran on in the lane. The was the first start in six months for him as he has every right to improve in his second race back.

No major standouts in here to me as if every horse in here were to run their best race they would all be equal. Going to try once with 1-FROSTED ECLAIR as we don't quite know which racehorse we are going to get. Her race on March 12 in the slop was a nice victory over a nice field. Her next two starts have been ugly. She lost the rider at the start two back and then  got shuffled in her last before back a middle  move and flattening out. If she can get a clean trip there's no reason why she can't compete in here. 4-BEG BORROW N STEAL has run a pair of good races on the meet as she is deserving of the favoritism today. She closed on days where speed held well and now gets the benefit of a likely evenly playing strip. Expect a solid effort in here. 2-CANTOO comes in off a good win where she showed improved speed in her last. The came against open company as well. Today I expect she sits a bit further back early but she should be moving forward in the lane.

Could be really right or really wrong here. Went on top to 2-PACIFIC VIEW as this well-bred 3yo filly comes in from Oaklawn today. She switches barns, adds blinkers and takes the class drop off of her debut. She didn't show a ton in that spot but also got away slowly. After that race she was training in New Orleans before shipping up to Hawthorne where she has worked well as she has had some time to mature. Let's see how she looks in the paddock and on the racetrack. 6-SALLY'S SUPRISE drops out of a maiden race in her debut. While she finished last of the field of six, the race was not a bad effort. She fits nicely in here and figures to rate mid-pack early and look to close in the lane. 1-THE SCORE IS EVEN debuts with Lasix for a barn that does well early. She is a 4yo first timer and the works aren't overly swift but don't dismiss her completely as she's an Illinois-bred who does run for the bonus money.

None in here are really front runners but think 2-D’ARCHER will inherit a fairly easy lead. Winner of last also ran well in his first start of the meet. Risky Boy, who he beat two starts back seems like the only one capable of applying early pressure. 5-RISKY BOY finished third in his last two starts. His good tactical speed will keep him close. Expect him to try to make a final late surge. 1-EASTER MUSIC is one of those without a lot of front-end speed but one capable of staying close in a field like this without much early pace, though he would have a much better chance if the lead was contested between a couple rivals ensuring an honest pace.

With the exception of one bad race where he had a poor start, 6-THE LAST FACT has been in good form for quite a while. He won three of his last five starts, along with one narrow loss. He’s taking on a bit better than he has been facing but he has the necessary speed to succeed. 5-PUBLIC SAFETY has earned far more than any of his rivals. He raced competitively in both starts this meet despite taking on somewhat tougher. Unlike top choice, his best move is coming from behind. Could pass them all. 2-SOUPER FORTUNE is another taking on a bit easier group. He was claimed from last and popped a sharp bullet drill for his new connections. Versatile sort could wake up at a price. 

Others in here have higher speed figures and there are others in here with speed but I think 2-AWESOME WILLY is the best of the early burners. He tired in his first start against winners but he was meeting better. With the drop in class he could grab the lead quickly and never look back. Obviously 6-IMPULSIVENESS in the one to beat. He was narrowly defeated in his first start of the meet and the pace of this race should set up better for this late runner. 3-OPTION is another likely to go for the lead. He does get to the front end more often than top choice but he just doesn’t seem quite as quick. But, if he does break on top, he might be able to stay in control.

Interesting race with an interesting mix of runners. 8-EASY FAST could be the one to beat. He races for a barn that traditionally does well with first-time starters. He gets the top rider, by wins, who also happens to be an apprentice with a weight allowance. 1-WOLF HUNTER had finished second three straight times in New Orleans before a 10^th-place finish in his last start. That happened when he was moved into maiden specials. He’ll be in against “specials” again today but this is probably an easier group than he met in last which, incidentally, turned out to be a “key” race. He looks like a top contender, on or off the pace. 5-MINING CAMP is probably the quickest of these and speed has won, by far, the majority of races this meet. 7-YO DAWG might only be prepping for his turf season. All his races have been on turf and he ran well in most of them. With only slow drills coming into this race, it would be surprising if he were prepared to be competitive at this distance and on the main track but first Lasix might help. The brilliantly-bred 3-RUSSIAN STANDARD showed little in his two starts but both were contested in the Emirates. Really can’t gauge the competition he faced but with first Lasix and probably cooler temps he might improve without warning.

8-GALLANT BUCK could be poised to surprise. He owns good speed and stayed competitive throughout in most of his races. However, he’s been gelded since his last start and many runners improve greatly after gelding. Love his last bullet drill. Might pit away the rest of the speed. 6-UNCLE HEADLY has been meeting better rivals since he was claimed by this barn and he ran competitively in most of those races. The drop in class for his local debut can help greatly. Could roll by them all late. 5-I’M YOUR CAPTAIN showed little in his first few starts but won by daylight in his Hawthorne debut. That race was against state breds and he’s facing open company today but he simply seems quicker than his rivals in this race. Has a legitimate chance to wire them again.

4-BEG BORROW N STEAL, with two narrow losses for second-place finishes in last two, is probably the one to beat. Although early speed has won most of the races this meet, there are quite a few front runners in this field so things should set up pretty well for this filly. 5-TIME BREAK finished third behind top choice in last two. She has been coming from off the pace but she did display good early speed in the past. Figures either way. 2-CANTOO just graduated. She’s not a real front runner but she’s going to be hot of the pace from the start. Could make it two in a row with the return to Illinois breds.

This looks like a pretty evenly-matched bunch but think I’m going to have to go with 5-EMPIRE BUILDER. He wired a good allowance field in his local debut which was also his first start after getting claimed by this barn. That was his first race in nearly three months and he might be able to build on that effort. There is plenty of other speed in here but think he’ll be able to outlast them and still have something left to hold the closers at bay. 4-GITA’S LAD is the main challenge up front. He wired the field in his last race of 2022 and did the same in his 2023 debut. All together, he’s had 24 races at Hawthorne and won 10 of them. Wouldn’t surprise if he extended his current streak to three. 7-PROTONIC POWER could have everything his own way late. He does look like the best closer in this speed-filled field. He just missed as the favorite in his local debut. Could make amends in this one.

6-SALLY’S SUPRISE didn’t beat a rival in her lone race but she really wasn’t beaten that badly so the drop into a maiden claimer is a bit surprising. However, this drop is likely to make her far more competitive. Can graduate. 1-THE SCORE IS EVEN hasn’t been working especially fast but she does have a long set of drills and should be fit enough to take on this group. 3-MISS MIA has decent tactical speed and has been competitive in half her races. Seems to fit with these. 2-PACIFIC VIEW had no chance when taking on maiden specials at Oaklawn in her lone start and she lost by 29 lengths. But that race gave her experience. She’s starting at what should be the right level today. Adds blinkers and gets the local leading rider. Better should be expected.

10 Pjay 1 Jess Call Me Mason 6 Constitutionalist

T 9 Cardio Muscle 8 Titan Flax 2 Southwind Cerveza

P 1 Paddy Melt 3 Ruth B 5 All Of Me

T 7 Devereux Seelster 2 Resolve To Win 1 Enzo Aguello

P 3 Dangerous Curves 8 Miss Canada 7 True That

T 1 Las Vegas Hanover 2 P L Quinella 5 Mr Experience

P 6 Mach Impact 7 Machal Jordan 4 Thundering Jim

T 6 Warrawee Yes 5 Mvn 4 Meadowview Lilly

T 8 New Rules 7 Warrawee Yang 4 Overpayment

P 5 Sunshineinmypocket 4 Sweet Rocket Gia 8 The Ideal Huntress

P 5 Twin B Tipster 8 Darkrshadeofpale 3 Dream Dancing