Handicapper Tips & Picks

None in here are really front runners but think 2-D’ARCHER will inherit a fairly easy lead. Winner of last also ran well in his first start of the meet. Risky Boy, who he beat two starts back seems like the only one capable of applying early pressure. 5-RISKY BOY finished third in his last two starts. His good tactical speed will keep him close. Expect him to try to make a final late surge. 1-EASTER MUSIC is one of those without a lot of front-end speed but one capable of staying close in a field like this without much early pace, though he would have a much better chance if the lead was contested between a couple rivals ensuring an honest pace.

With the exception of one bad race where he had a poor start, 6-THE LAST FACT has been in good form for quite a while. He won three of his last five starts, along with one narrow loss. He’s taking on a bit better than he has been facing but he has the necessary speed to succeed. 5-PUBLIC SAFETY has earned far more than any of his rivals. He raced competitively in both starts this meet despite taking on somewhat tougher. Unlike top choice, his best move is coming from behind. Could pass them all. 2-SOUPER FORTUNE is another taking on a bit easier group. He was claimed from last and popped a sharp bullet drill for his new connections. Versatile sort could wake up at a price. 

Others in here have higher speed figures and there are others in here with speed but I think 2-AWESOME WILLY is the best of the early burners. He tired in his first start against winners but he was meeting better. With the drop in class he could grab the lead quickly and never look back. Obviously 6-IMPULSIVENESS in the one to beat. He was narrowly defeated in his first start of the meet and the pace of this race should set up better for this late runner. 3-OPTION is another likely to go for the lead. He does get to the front end more often than top choice but he just doesn’t seem quite as quick. But, if he does break on top, he might be able to stay in control.

Interesting race with an interesting mix of runners. 8-EASY FAST could be the one to beat. He races for a barn that traditionally does well with first-time starters. He gets the top rider, by wins, who also happens to be an apprentice with a weight allowance. 1-WOLF HUNTER had finished second three straight times in New Orleans before a 10^th-place finish in his last start. That happened when he was moved into maiden specials. He’ll be in against “specials” again today but this is probably an easier group than he met in last which, incidentally, turned out to be a “key” race. He looks like a top contender, on or off the pace. 5-MINING CAMP is probably the quickest of these and speed has won, by far, the majority of races this meet. 7-YO DAWG might only be prepping for his turf season. All his races have been on turf and he ran well in most of them. With only slow drills coming into this race, it would be surprising if he were prepared to be competitive at this distance and on the main track but first Lasix might help. The brilliantly-bred 3-RUSSIAN STANDARD showed little in his two starts but both were contested in the Emirates. Really can’t gauge the competition he faced but with first Lasix and probably cooler temps he might improve without warning.

8-GALLANT BUCK could be poised to surprise. He owns good speed and stayed competitive throughout in most of his races. However, he’s been gelded since his last start and many runners improve greatly after gelding. Love his last bullet drill. Might pit away the rest of the speed. 6-UNCLE HEADLY has been meeting better rivals since he was claimed by this barn and he ran competitively in most of those races. The drop in class for his local debut can help greatly. Could roll by them all late. 5-I’M YOUR CAPTAIN showed little in his first few starts but won by daylight in his Hawthorne debut. That race was against state breds and he’s facing open company today but he simply seems quicker than his rivals in this race. Has a legitimate chance to wire them again.

4-BEG BORROW N STEAL, with two narrow losses for second-place finishes in last two, is probably the one to beat. Although early speed has won most of the races this meet, there are quite a few front runners in this field so things should set up pretty well for this filly. 5-TIME BREAK finished third behind top choice in last two. She has been coming from off the pace but she did display good early speed in the past. Figures either way. 2-CANTOO just graduated. She’s not a real front runner but she’s going to be hot of the pace from the start. Could make it two in a row with the return to Illinois breds.

This looks like a pretty evenly-matched bunch but think I’m going to have to go with 5-EMPIRE BUILDER. He wired a good allowance field in his local debut which was also his first start after getting claimed by this barn. That was his first race in nearly three months and he might be able to build on that effort. There is plenty of other speed in here but think he’ll be able to outlast them and still have something left to hold the closers at bay. 4-GITA’S LAD is the main challenge up front. He wired the field in his last race of 2022 and did the same in his 2023 debut. All together, he’s had 24 races at Hawthorne and won 10 of them. Wouldn’t surprise if he extended his current streak to three. 7-PROTONIC POWER could have everything his own way late. He does look like the best closer in this speed-filled field. He just missed as the favorite in his local debut. Could make amends in this one.

6-SALLY’S SUPRISE didn’t beat a rival in her lone race but she really wasn’t beaten that badly so the drop into a maiden claimer is a bit surprising. However, this drop is likely to make her far more competitive. Can graduate. 1-THE SCORE IS EVEN hasn’t been working especially fast but she does have a long set of drills and should be fit enough to take on this group. 3-MISS MIA has decent tactical speed and has been competitive in half her races. Seems to fit with these. 2-PACIFIC VIEW had no chance when taking on maiden specials at Oaklawn in her lone start and she lost by 29 lengths. But that race gave her experience. She’s starting at what should be the right level today. Adds blinkers and gets the local leading rider. Better should be expected.