Handicapper Tips & Picks

The value of the race, #4 BORN AGAIN GEORGE coming back to Hawthorne and as a horse that has been able to show early speed in the past. That could be the key in this race as others in this field lack that RunStyle. BORN AGAIN GEORGE lacked the win at this condition last season and shares running lines with today’s rivals including back on December 30^th when favored.  Those runners; #1 EASTER MUSIC, #2 D’ARCHER and #5 RISKY BOY are the most logical in this field and number/form wise match up with each other in this event. Visuals and post time odds could assist in trying to find some separation with that trio.

Trainer Antonio Meraz had a strong Sunday showing with a pair of wins sending out live runners and could see that trend continue into this Thursday card. They return in this spot with #3 SHACKLEFORD STRONG, first off the claim. Going back to the April 23^rd race day, they were favored and compromised by the poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) as well as the track profile (X_BIAS) and showed a lot of run making a MOVE and CLOSE (albeit Flow aided – VF early) in the outcome. While improvement is expected it is required here with the class rise.

#1 SOUPER FORTUNE returns in this spot and first off the claim for David Reid. Class wise they find subtle relief in today’s event and could present a move forward in this third start back off the layoff. The recent gate issues (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) played a role in the return races this season and must be considered (value wise) and improved on to compete here. #2 CHRISTMAS PRESENT also finds some changes for this race primarily distance returning to the sprint (ONE_TURN) a move that has been used effectively with this runner in the past.

As far as the pace of this race both SOUPER FORTUNE and CHRISTMAS PRESENT have been able to show early speed and that will be key as #6 THE LAST FACT projects to be on the lead and dangerous if left alone. They are returning from a LONE lead win back on April 20^th, a day when the high wind WEATHER conditions made the course tougher to make up ground on. THE LAST FACT projects to REGRESS from that earned figure and has the hurdle with both the class rise and post position change to overcome as the projected favorite. 

As the projected favorite, #6 IMPULSIVENESS is logical returning in this spot and condition. Surface was an unknown back on April 23^rd returning to dirt, though handled the surface while compromised by race shape. The slower pace created a dynamic with minimal change in running order from start to finish with Wildwood’s Warrior going gate to wire. The race dynamic there could also present upside for #1 WHERE’S LUCKY, a horse that has at times under performed though has some steady progressive (buried) form coming into the race and could surprise at a price.

#5 KEEN RESPONSE also deserving of a big look and major upgrade returning from the EX – EXCUSE on April 6^th. They had legit TROUBLE+ in that race and showed run to suggest they can compete under similar conditions with a clean trip. 

#1 WOLF HUNTER is the most experienced in this field and while that come with reservations, they fit into today’s race. Most of their races to date, they have been running distances longer than their ideal while overmatched in against Special Weight on different circuits. The higher maiden claiming races this season at the Fair Grounds stack up in line on this circuit at today’s Special Weight par/OFR to suggest this condition is one where Wolf Hunter can compete. Perez will also sent out #3 RUSSIAN STANDARD to make their debut on this circuit. The barn had a similar shipper last month called Black Russian, a horse that did not have impact on the outcome finishing 6^th, however had a “trip” from the rail and showed run and seemed to have some intent on the day.

The first time starters are worth a mention making their first start and a spot where a “new face” could jump up. #8 EASY FAST has a pair of recent local works though gaps this year in training out at Oaklawn Park and prior to the recorded 4/27 drill. #2 REJECTION HURTS brings in a steady local work tab, though noted as they were entered to debut last September at Canterbury Park in a statebred Special Weight event before being scratched and will make a belated debut here. 

As noted earlier, Meraz shows up in this spot with #6 UNCLE HEADLEY a horse that is tough to dismiss showing up on this circuit and exiting the higher level Optional Claiming events out of town and landing here with that relief in a Hawthorne debut. As far as #2 PRIZE FIGHTER they have the benefit of local experience and capable to improve in this second start back off the layoff while the intent in play returning to similar conditions from the April 16^th race.

#1 VERRAZANOINTHESKY also returns from the April 16^th race and should offer value in this spot as they could get overlooked off the recent running lines. There is more to the story following the visuals noting the TROUBLE in the March 26^th trip and improving with a BTL effort last month in that third place finish.

Value also keeps #4 BRUCE BANNER in the mix as a runner that has the pair of Hawthorne races on the main track from last fall (10/29 and 11/13) that stack up strongly number wise for today’s level and sit in line with the top efforts recorded from those morning line favorites.

As far as the Fair Grounds shippers #7 MONGOLIAN BEE and #8 GALLANT BUCK they will make a lateral move from their races this season into today’s race and race par/OFR and share common running lines from the April 16^th N2L claiming event where both required to show more to win on the day though overall not much between them individually. 

The main players in this race return from the common race under similar conditions on April 20^th. The winner of the race, I Don’t Know Margo was well-intended and handled as they were sent to the lead and controlled gate to wire. The place finisher, #4 BEG BORROW N STEAL has run the same race at this condition in both starts this season and while they expect to hold their form, a move forward is required to win. They ran on a common race on March 30^th with #1 FROSTED ÉCLAIR, one that lost their rider at the start (TROUBLES+) though continued to run riderless and crossed the wire first and clear of the others. Perhaps that “race” caused some “regression” on April 20^th as she came up short with the WIDE trip losing ground in the final ¼ mile. Frosted Éclair has some run though also can be her own biggest hurdle with the gate issues and pattern of breaking slow that has been present since her debut and must be considered with the rail draw. She is listed as the longest on the morning line and a value case can be made in that role.

#6 GHAALEB’S RANGER was giving up some recency on the day returning from 272-day layoff and based on the effort (B- MOVE) and back numbers can project improvement today as a contender. #7 CAT ROYALE also returning from a layoff for Boyce, raced one pace and must improve not only from the effort three weeks ago but overall with softer numbers compared to others in this field. #5 TIME BREAK has been average (C+ OptixGRADES) at the level in the races this season and could get support from the public from the paper form pairing up show finishes. 

As far as #4 GITA’S LAD he has recorded some of the higher figures in this field and running back to his top efforts make him a major player. With that said, he ran one of those “tops” returning from the layoff on March 30^th and could see some regression here and noted class rise. To the credit of the new connections, he has been given 42-days since that effort a positive in this case.

Regression could threaten his former stablemate, #5 EMPIRE BUILDER one that 28-days recorded a top effort (B+ OptixGRADE/90 OptixFIG) returning from the layoff as the BOS, though was drifting out late despite being clear and visually all out in that effort. His current stablemate, #7 PROTONIC POWER should sit favorably in his current form cycle returning from the April 16^th race and one that has shown a level of class to suggest he can hold his form today.

#8 KHOZAN’S VALENTINE also should hold his form returning here in the third start off the layoff. He has progressive OptixFIG and competitive races at this level going back to the December 31^st race compromised at the start and far outside post. As far as today’s route distance, he can handle and has won around two turns when in at the right level, trip, and timing. 

Tough to know where #2 PACIFIC VIEW stands on ability as she broke slow (SLOG) on debut and was taken WIDE and in hand (NO_PUSH) not asked for run in her December 31^st debut at Oaklawn Park for a COLD barn at the time. She returns here with every change possible from owner/barn, circuit, class and picking up blinkers. She has some steady works and would appear as if intent is in play. 

#3 MISS MIA is proven and has shown her most competitive races when at the maiden claiming level and upgraded with that class change here. #6 SALLY’S SURPRISE also showing up as a second time starter could improve with the drop alone and her figure from the debut two weeks ago sits in line with her rivals here – though might not offer much value as the assigned morning line favorite. #1 THE SCORE IS EVEN also projects to find public support for Becker and as a new face. She is making her debut here as a four-year-old, slightly better than five-year-old mare #5 DILLYDILLYDIAMOND also showing up for a first start.

THE SCORE IS EVEN was scheduled to debut on April 20^th, a vet scratch that day and from a common race with others returning here. #7 SONG OF AMERICA going off as the second choice that day and projects attention here could have the foundation as an edge, though as an individual has lacked progression and number wise on the “slower” side. #8 LADA KALINA with the CLOSE to place has higher figures and overall has been more competitive than Song of America. #4 TWICK OR TWEAT remains one to follow as she has been her biggest hurdle especially at the GATE and pattern of SLOG going back to the opening day (3/5) debut. With that said, she has shown run and a sneaky strong finish (CLOSE) and GALLOP+ back on April 20^th should not be ignored.