Handicapper Tips & Picks

The pace could be contentious with the lack of a true front runner and for this condition where many could be pressured to take the early lead. That scenario could assist #3 WEEKEND PASS with her recency, late kick and form this season where she has lacked the pace to close into. Some price compensation is required on this type of runner though could be there with the compact field. #2 SPENDER, coming off the layoff creates some reservations combined with her age. She fits this condition coming back today for Bahena and could be intent with Mojica seeing fit to take the call. 

#2 LUCKY SHOT wheels right back to make their second start off the layoff and finds the right DROP to compete in today’s race. The allowance return looked the part of a prep after the recent layoff lines. In addition to those gaps, LUCKY SHOT was fractious in the gate playing a role in the effort and result behind the open length pacesetting winner, Uncashed, a solid allowance horse on this circuit for Rivelli. Mojica take the call for Poulos and off #3 BLOOMING GARDEN, a runner he guided to a solid place finish on April 30^th and those connections wheel back in two weeks for this race and with the return to a sprint for the first time in almost a year.

#4 RUSSIAN ALPHABET will look to continue their win streak and holding current form fits at this level. There could be some concern with potential regression pairing tops returning from the layoff as something to consider as they project to be a short number in this race. 

#4 BIRDIE MACHINE could have been a little short returning from the 174-day layoff on April 27^th. Overall that race should set them up to at the least pair efforts for this race and that fits with this field considering the main contenders. The lack of finish continues to be a concern for #6 SOVIET STANDARD even as they appear to possible hold a pace advantage. #3 FAITHFUL KING has some concerns with the continued drop in class at the same time, projects to improve with the cut back in distance to a sprint and return to Emigh after a RANK run in the April 27^th route race.

#2 THEMISCHIEVOUSONE was looking to debut on the turf here last October though unable to get that start with the connections scratching when the races came off the grass. They showed up without another option to run on the turf sprinting on the main track in December and overall (PREP) did not seem intended for that spot. The connections again show a scratch from a turf route back in January (vet scratch) at Tampa and return to Hawthorne with the grass intention and steady series of works. The same connections will also debut, #6 I OWE UNCLE MO and capable with first time starters and appear to have her race ready and intent with Mojica aboard.

Physically, #1 SECRET OPERATION looks on the “turfy” side though will be tested for class as her visuals from the races this season have left her overmatched in Special Weight company. Number wise her effort on March 26^th over an off track stacks up with the top effort recorded from #4 JOYZELLA and SECRET should offer value of the two – those numbers are also in line with #3 ROLL GYPSY ROLL, another projected shorter price in this field. Value is required with ROLL as well as #9 CHECKED PERFECT, a runner that will find class relief on this circuit for her second start, though still must improve.

Former Spagnola runner, #8 VOSTRA returns here with the barn change. She was scheduled to debut on the turf last October and all things considered turned in a BTL effort. She was unable to improve off that first start though does return with the freshening and the other changes and could suggest intent for a runner that has more run than what she has been able to show thus far.  #10 VISIONISTA gives off the impression she will take to the turf and will make a grass debut here. She will also make a route debut and tested for stamina in the first time in this eighth start. 

Despite being an IN-bred, #6 ARRINGTON seems to prefer the course here at Hawthorne where her figures rate higher on this strip. She could land in the right spot returning here and the maiden claiming level. Even with those factors on her side, a top effort is required and required to prove herself at a route of ground as well. #4 GYURZA could project another move forward and sitting on a top effort. She has shown subtle progress with each race this season and now has fitness on her side as they stretch back out to a route.

#2 PRETTY IN PRADO could also just catch the right group. She has come close to clearing the maiden condition going back to December 16^th and the place finish on April 2^nd, though also had the race profile on her side in both of those efforts and still came up short. 

This is a competitive event where many fit this condition are in form and could come down to getting the right trip on the day. As far as trip. #2 GUN RUSH will step up off a dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) effort though had the race FLOW in their favor and projects to find a more contentious/faster early pace today.

As far as morning line favorite, #1 MILLARD’S SMILE they were FLOW aided coming from off the pace on April 27^th and flattered by the race dynamic in that place finish. They also have come up short settling for minors at this level going back to last season and without excuse not to win. The Rodriguez barn will also return with #6 UNCLE NICK, a horse that has a look in here and should present a move forward as they are on an “every other” pattern and likely to show early speed here. Both #5 AVIANO and #7 ROCKET HOTSHOT project to IMPROVE returning from the common race with Millard’s Smile on April 27^th and offer the value of the set.  

The pace should be contentious and set up for #8 SIMPLE LOGIC, a logical type and one that is likely to come down from the morning line. He was running over this course last season and dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) in the October 7^th allowance, a race with a similar race par and purse. The layoff is in play, though to his credit has run well off a layoff in the past including the place/BLANKET finish here last June. His stablemate #4 POWER THROUGH has a solid Plot position as a Quad I Square, though can often require racing off the layoff to get to a top effort and also projects to be part of the “Sun” Contention and higher 68 SpeedRate.

#9 ANDTHETHUNDERROLLS has shown ability on the turf and another that presents a favorable RunStyle for this event. He also projects upside in this portion of his form cycle, second off and for a horse that has moved forward off a similar pattern in the past. #5 DRIVEN ONE returns to the TURF, a surface they have handled in the past and could improve on based on their visuals. Intent could also be in play as Mason scratched from the “Trail’s End” Stakes, the finale marathon event that closes out the Oaklawn Park meet last week.

#3 MYSTIC STORM showed ability on debut here last year and paired up that effort with a Special Weight win in her second start. She spent the first part of 2023 at the Fair Grounds and in open company running in competitive races and showing speed figure improvement race to race. After running for the claiming tag along with the progress, it is encouraging the connections backed off and waited for this meet and to run back in the protected allowance conditions.

Class is lateral change for #5 DREAM STREAK exiting the FG/OP races this season, though overall must bring a top effort to win here. Kirby returns with a pair in #1 STORMY EMPIRE and #6 RAINY MOUNTAIN,  two mares that have experience at this level and earned checks, though have come up short on the win end or with a winning effort. Class also a concern for others in this field stepping up to open company (#2 I DON’T KNOW MARGO), stepping up in class (#7 RONAN, #8 AVASARALA) and recent maiden (#4 CRYSTAL SNOW) winner. 

With very little early pace in the race, 4-JERSEY GOLD should be well positioned to set slow fractions and wire this field. 1-AIKEN TO BE TAKIN makes her second start of the year. She ran well at Fairmount last out and could rate closer around two turns. 5-IMAGINE GOLD makes her first start of 2023. She has a couple of works and is another that ran well at this distance last fall.

4-RUSSIAN ALPHABET is a deserving heavy favorite. His form is excellent on the meet and he is well positioned for his third straight victory. 2-LUCKY SHOT could show speed in here. If he gets loose early he has the potential to steal this race. 3-BLOOMING GARDEN is intriguing as he ran a good route race last out. While sprinting he could rate and run on late.

With two with speed in here, 4-BIRDIE MACHINE may be able to rate just behind a contested pace and should run by in the lane. 3-FAITHFUL KING makes the class drop today and will likely be sent from the start. 6-SOVIET STANDARD is the other with speed who ran some good races earlier in the meet. His last at this level was a solid performance as well.

A competitive race on turf or dirt. 3-ROLL GYPSY ROLL was sharp around two turns in New Orleans last out. Everything from this barn is racing well right now. 4-JOYZELLA should speed around two turns in her last. Let's see if she tries to shake loose and wire this field. 11-ALLOTROPE is an MTO that has a big shot if the race comes off the grass. She ran a good sprint race on debut and should be able to improve in her second out.

Anyone can win this race. 3-EVIE JEAN has run decent each time out this meet. She picks up bug boy Giles today which could be beneficial for her. 2-PRETTY IN PRADO has speed and is likely to be sent. The question is if she will have company or not upfront. 5-LIL CARRIE D never contended in her last. The class drop today may be what turns things around for her.

5-DRIVEN ONE is the pick on turf or dirt. He handles both surfaces well, can stalk what looks to be a fast pace, and comes off good success at a tough Oaklawn meet. 3-JEALOUS EYES could be a part of the early pace. He pressed in his last and did contend late into the stretch before giving way. 10-GLOBAL EMPIRE needs a fast pace upfront to fall apart as he will be charging in the lane. He may be better off if this race comes off the grass.

The recent tough competition at Oaklawn benefits 5-DREAM STREAK as she ran well during that meet. She has tactical speed and should be able to settle early and rally late. 6-RAINY MOUNTAIN will need pace to chase as she should close well in the lane. She held her own against open company last out and should be right there once again. 7-RONAN has just 3 lifetime wins from 55 starts but has a combined 29 2nds and 3rds. She's the perfect play underneath in the gimmicks.

Strange race. Two of the top three contenders are racing over their conditions and the probable favorite is still eligible for a non-winners of two. 4-JERSEY GOLD is the one still seeking her second win but her speed figures suggest that she’s easily the fastest of this group. 5-IMAGINE GOLD hasn’t had many drills coming into her first start of the year but she has done well off past layoffs. She finished third in her final start of 2022. Seems likely to do at least as well today. 1-AIKEN TO BE TAKEN, eligible for a nw3, stretches out. She’s probably going to display much better speed. Could be right there throughout.

4-RUSSIAN ALPHABET has a great chance to extend his win streak to three. He won both local starts and although those races were at five and a half furlongs, he seemed to finish with plenty left. However, he is going to face plenty of early pressure from the class-dropping 2-LUCKY SHOT. That rival, while never a factor in allowance or better company, nonetheless was a major player in his claiming races and he has never been in this easy. 3-BLOOMING GARDEN and 5-DEORA STORE both turn back in distance and both are likely to display some late run.

6-SOVIET STANDARD still ran out of gas when dropped to this level for last but he was under pressure from the start. Seems likely to have an easier time up front in this spot with no other apparent early speed. This time he might last. 4-BIRDIE MACHINE tracked the pace in last and was able to get up for second, beating top choice by a couple lengths. However, there might not be any runners in here capable of softening up top choice. We’ll see. 3-FAITHFUL KING tired badly in last couple but he’s dropping in class and turning back in distance. Good things can happen.

This race was originally scheduled for a mile on the turf. It will go as a mile seventy with the move to the main track. There are quite a few in here with speed but 11-ALLOTROPE should be the quickest of all. She finished third, sprinting, in her lone start but her natural speed will be enhanced with the stretch in distance. Can’t guarantee that she’ll lead all the way but she does loom as the one to catch. 4-JOYZELLA has been in good form this year. She finished second both times she ran at this distance. She might not be quite as quick as top choice but we know she can get the distance. If the speed does end up folding, would expect 3-ROLL GYPSY ROLL, the Fair Grounds shipper, to come along late to pick up the pieces. 

Can’t guarantee that she’ll last the distance but the pedigree of 4-GYURZA suggests that the route won’t pose any problems. With the stretch in distance and the addition of blinkers, she’s likely to be the quickest of these and speed still wins most of the races. Might surprise. 2-PRETTY IN PRADO is the more “logical” speed horse. She often displays good early foot, she’s been running at this level, and she keeps a rider that gets them out of the gate as well as anybody. Morning-line favorite 6-ARRINGTON has had some competitive races versus maiden specials and she finished second the only time she ran in a maiden claimer. Figures prominently.

1-MILLARD’S SMILE finished second in his last three Hawthorne races. Although he would never be considered to be a traditional speed runner, he’s among the quickest in this field. That last race was a good tune up over this track. He could prove to be far tougher today. 2-GUN RUSH had been getting progressively better but he really pulled it all together in his local debut. He fought for the lead briefly but soon pulled away from the field and drew off to win by nine. He’s taking on tougher here but he could also improve after getting a trip over the track. 5-AVIANO is another likely to benefit from his initial local trip. Unlike the top pair he doesn’t own much early speed but he will have dead aim late on that duo if they choose to fight for the lead.

This race strangely fell apart when it got moves to the main track despite few of the runners primarily grass specialists. So many of the speed horses from this field scratched that I would expect 5-DRIVEN ONE to go right to the front end. He’s been facing some extremely tough company in Arkansas. Could be in control from start to finish. 1-BEEALEA was claimed from last and makes his first start for this barn but love that last race of his where he lost by a rapidly-diminishing neck. He’ll be taking on somewhat tougher here but he might be able to make full use of the extra real estate of this race. We are supposed to get some rain this afternoon and, if that’s the case, extra attention should be paid to 2-SUPER WISE. He also ships from a tougher meet. He’s had five races on off tracks and won two of them.

No guarantee that he can do it again but the last race by 4-CRYSTAL SNOW would make her a top contender in this one. She seems to be a couple lengths quicker early than any of her rivals in here and speed just keeps winning. She’s taking on far better here but she could be up to the challenge. 3-MYSTIC STORM will be tracking what could be a pretty quick pace. Fair Grounds shipper ran well in all but one of her starts, including her two maiden races here in the fall. She should never be too far off the lead. Could surge by late. 5-DREAM STREAK hasn’t had many bad races. In fact, she finished in the money in her last nine. She’s plenty quick and just might give top pick all she can handle on the front end.