Handicapper Tips & Picks

The pace could be contentious with the lack of a true front runner and for this condition where many could be pressured to take the early lead. That scenario could assist #3 WEEKEND PASS with her recency, late kick and form this season where she has lacked the pace to close into. Some price compensation is required on this type of runner though could be there with the compact field. #2 SPENDER, coming off the layoff creates some reservations combined with her age. She fits this condition coming back today for Bahena and could be intent with Mojica seeing fit to take the call. 

#2 LUCKY SHOT wheels right back to make their second start off the layoff and finds the right DROP to compete in today’s race. The allowance return looked the part of a prep after the recent layoff lines. In addition to those gaps, LUCKY SHOT was fractious in the gate playing a role in the effort and result behind the open length pacesetting winner, Uncashed, a solid allowance horse on this circuit for Rivelli. Mojica take the call for Poulos and off #3 BLOOMING GARDEN, a runner he guided to a solid place finish on April 30^th and those connections wheel back in two weeks for this race and with the return to a sprint for the first time in almost a year.

#4 RUSSIAN ALPHABET will look to continue their win streak and holding current form fits at this level. There could be some concern with potential regression pairing tops returning from the layoff as something to consider as they project to be a short number in this race. 

#4 BIRDIE MACHINE could have been a little short returning from the 174-day layoff on April 27^th. Overall that race should set them up to at the least pair efforts for this race and that fits with this field considering the main contenders. The lack of finish continues to be a concern for #6 SOVIET STANDARD even as they appear to possible hold a pace advantage. #3 FAITHFUL KING has some concerns with the continued drop in class at the same time, projects to improve with the cut back in distance to a sprint and return to Emigh after a RANK run in the April 27^th route race.

#2 THEMISCHIEVOUSONE was looking to debut on the turf here last October though unable to get that start with the connections scratching when the races came off the grass. They showed up without another option to run on the turf sprinting on the main track in December and overall (PREP) did not seem intended for that spot. The connections again show a scratch from a turf route back in January (vet scratch) at Tampa and return to Hawthorne with the grass intention and steady series of works. The same connections will also debut, #6 I OWE UNCLE MO and capable with first time starters and appear to have her race ready and intent with Mojica aboard.

Physically, #1 SECRET OPERATION looks on the “turfy” side though will be tested for class as her visuals from the races this season have left her overmatched in Special Weight company. Number wise her effort on March 26^th over an off track stacks up with the top effort recorded from #4 JOYZELLA and SECRET should offer value of the two – those numbers are also in line with #3 ROLL GYPSY ROLL, another projected shorter price in this field. Value is required with ROLL as well as #9 CHECKED PERFECT, a runner that will find class relief on this circuit for her second start, though still must improve.

Former Spagnola runner, #8 VOSTRA returns here with the barn change. She was scheduled to debut on the turf last October and all things considered turned in a BTL effort. She was unable to improve off that first start though does return with the freshening and the other changes and could suggest intent for a runner that has more run than what she has been able to show thus far.  #10 VISIONISTA gives off the impression she will take to the turf and will make a grass debut here. She will also make a route debut and tested for stamina in the first time in this eighth start. 

Despite being an IN-bred, #6 ARRINGTON seems to prefer the course here at Hawthorne where her figures rate higher on this strip. She could land in the right spot returning here and the maiden claiming level. Even with those factors on her side, a top effort is required and required to prove herself at a route of ground as well. #4 GYURZA could project another move forward and sitting on a top effort. She has shown subtle progress with each race this season and now has fitness on her side as they stretch back out to a route.

#2 PRETTY IN PRADO could also just catch the right group. She has come close to clearing the maiden condition going back to December 16^th and the place finish on April 2^nd, though also had the race profile on her side in both of those efforts and still came up short. 

This is a competitive event where many fit this condition are in form and could come down to getting the right trip on the day. As far as trip. #2 GUN RUSH will step up off a dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) effort though had the race FLOW in their favor and projects to find a more contentious/faster early pace today.

As far as morning line favorite, #1 MILLARD’S SMILE they were FLOW aided coming from off the pace on April 27^th and flattered by the race dynamic in that place finish. They also have come up short settling for minors at this level going back to last season and without excuse not to win. The Rodriguez barn will also return with #6 UNCLE NICK, a horse that has a look in here and should present a move forward as they are on an “every other” pattern and likely to show early speed here. Both #5 AVIANO and #7 ROCKET HOTSHOT project to IMPROVE returning from the common race with Millard’s Smile on April 27^th and offer the value of the set.  

The pace should be contentious and set up for #8 SIMPLE LOGIC, a logical type and one that is likely to come down from the morning line. He was running over this course last season and dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) in the October 7^th allowance, a race with a similar race par and purse. The layoff is in play, though to his credit has run well off a layoff in the past including the place/BLANKET finish here last June. His stablemate #4 POWER THROUGH has a solid Plot position as a Quad I Square, though can often require racing off the layoff to get to a top effort and also projects to be part of the “Sun” Contention and higher 68 SpeedRate.

#9 ANDTHETHUNDERROLLS has shown ability on the turf and another that presents a favorable RunStyle for this event. He also projects upside in this portion of his form cycle, second off and for a horse that has moved forward off a similar pattern in the past. #5 DRIVEN ONE returns to the TURF, a surface they have handled in the past and could improve on based on their visuals. Intent could also be in play as Mason scratched from the “Trail’s End” Stakes, the finale marathon event that closes out the Oaklawn Park meet last week.

#3 MYSTIC STORM showed ability on debut here last year and paired up that effort with a Special Weight win in her second start. She spent the first part of 2023 at the Fair Grounds and in open company running in competitive races and showing speed figure improvement race to race. After running for the claiming tag along with the progress, it is encouraging the connections backed off and waited for this meet and to run back in the protected allowance conditions.

Class is lateral change for #5 DREAM STREAK exiting the FG/OP races this season, though overall must bring a top effort to win here. Kirby returns with a pair in #1 STORMY EMPIRE and #6 RAINY MOUNTAIN,  two mares that have experience at this level and earned checks, though have come up short on the win end or with a winning effort. Class also a concern for others in this field stepping up to open company (#2 I DON’T KNOW MARGO), stepping up in class (#7 RONAN, #8 AVASARALA) and recent maiden (#4 CRYSTAL SNOW) winner.