Handicapper Tips & Picks

Strange race. Two of the top three contenders are racing over their conditions and the probable favorite is still eligible for a non-winners of two. 4-JERSEY GOLD is the one still seeking her second win but her speed figures suggest that she’s easily the fastest of this group. 5-IMAGINE GOLD hasn’t had many drills coming into her first start of the year but she has done well off past layoffs. She finished third in her final start of 2022. Seems likely to do at least as well today. 1-AIKEN TO BE TAKEN, eligible for a nw3, stretches out. She’s probably going to display much better speed. Could be right there throughout.

4-RUSSIAN ALPHABET has a great chance to extend his win streak to three. He won both local starts and although those races were at five and a half furlongs, he seemed to finish with plenty left. However, he is going to face plenty of early pressure from the class-dropping 2-LUCKY SHOT. That rival, while never a factor in allowance or better company, nonetheless was a major player in his claiming races and he has never been in this easy. 3-BLOOMING GARDEN and 5-DEORA STORE both turn back in distance and both are likely to display some late run.

6-SOVIET STANDARD still ran out of gas when dropped to this level for last but he was under pressure from the start. Seems likely to have an easier time up front in this spot with no other apparent early speed. This time he might last. 4-BIRDIE MACHINE tracked the pace in last and was able to get up for second, beating top choice by a couple lengths. However, there might not be any runners in here capable of softening up top choice. We’ll see. 3-FAITHFUL KING tired badly in last couple but he’s dropping in class and turning back in distance. Good things can happen.

This race was originally scheduled for a mile on the turf. It will go as a mile seventy with the move to the main track. There are quite a few in here with speed but 11-ALLOTROPE should be the quickest of all. She finished third, sprinting, in her lone start but her natural speed will be enhanced with the stretch in distance. Can’t guarantee that she’ll lead all the way but she does loom as the one to catch. 4-JOYZELLA has been in good form this year. She finished second both times she ran at this distance. She might not be quite as quick as top choice but we know she can get the distance. If the speed does end up folding, would expect 3-ROLL GYPSY ROLL, the Fair Grounds shipper, to come along late to pick up the pieces. 

Can’t guarantee that she’ll last the distance but the pedigree of 4-GYURZA suggests that the route won’t pose any problems. With the stretch in distance and the addition of blinkers, she’s likely to be the quickest of these and speed still wins most of the races. Might surprise. 2-PRETTY IN PRADO is the more “logical” speed horse. She often displays good early foot, she’s been running at this level, and she keeps a rider that gets them out of the gate as well as anybody. Morning-line favorite 6-ARRINGTON has had some competitive races versus maiden specials and she finished second the only time she ran in a maiden claimer. Figures prominently.

1-MILLARD’S SMILE finished second in his last three Hawthorne races. Although he would never be considered to be a traditional speed runner, he’s among the quickest in this field. That last race was a good tune up over this track. He could prove to be far tougher today. 2-GUN RUSH had been getting progressively better but he really pulled it all together in his local debut. He fought for the lead briefly but soon pulled away from the field and drew off to win by nine. He’s taking on tougher here but he could also improve after getting a trip over the track. 5-AVIANO is another likely to benefit from his initial local trip. Unlike the top pair he doesn’t own much early speed but he will have dead aim late on that duo if they choose to fight for the lead.

This race strangely fell apart when it got moves to the main track despite few of the runners primarily grass specialists. So many of the speed horses from this field scratched that I would expect 5-DRIVEN ONE to go right to the front end. He’s been facing some extremely tough company in Arkansas. Could be in control from start to finish. 1-BEEALEA was claimed from last and makes his first start for this barn but love that last race of his where he lost by a rapidly-diminishing neck. He’ll be taking on somewhat tougher here but he might be able to make full use of the extra real estate of this race. We are supposed to get some rain this afternoon and, if that’s the case, extra attention should be paid to 2-SUPER WISE. He also ships from a tougher meet. He’s had five races on off tracks and won two of them.

No guarantee that he can do it again but the last race by 4-CRYSTAL SNOW would make her a top contender in this one. She seems to be a couple lengths quicker early than any of her rivals in here and speed just keeps winning. She’s taking on far better here but she could be up to the challenge. 3-MYSTIC STORM will be tracking what could be a pretty quick pace. Fair Grounds shipper ran well in all but one of her starts, including her two maiden races here in the fall. She should never be too far off the lead. Could surge by late. 5-DREAM STREAK hasn’t had many bad races. In fact, she finished in the money in her last nine. She’s plenty quick and just might give top pick all she can handle on the front end.