Handicapper Tips & Picks

This is a tricky race where any in this group could be getting their picture taken that includes #1 RANK AND FILE one of the lesser “obvious” runners in this field. As far as the condition she finds a lateral change with race par while racing above the “non winners of two in 2023” condition where she is eligible for N1Y. As far as her form this season, the connections have been overly optimistic bringing her back in allowance company and even at the higher claiming level on April 6^th. The timing was also noted as she has been running back on short rest during April and has been given the 32-day freshening, a positive in form cycle. The other subtle change in rider is also noted as Tavares takes over and while he has not been aboard this mare for Hughes, he was up for the previous connections and had success in four starts with a win, two show finishes and a fourth in higher allowance company on the turf.

Intent also appears to be in play for #2 FANCY EMPRESS on an every other pattern to suggest a move forward, keying off the speed figures and BTL effort on April 16th. She requires a top effort, though that could also come with intent finding both a rider change and the blinkers off. Her RunStyle is similar to Prancipants (Quad IV Squares) looking to take advantage of any early pace contention. As far as the early pace. the Quinonez pair of #3 APOLLO YOU ANYWHERE and #5 COOKIN ROSES the two share a similar E/EP RunStyle and Quad I Plot position and project to be joined by #4 SNOOTY coming first off the claim and win on April 30th. 

Going back to April 30^th, #7 GHAALEB’S MAGIC was upgraded on the Plot before the scratch and returns under similar conditions and with another favorable Plot position as a Quad I Square that is tough to ignore.

Number wise #6 SHE’S XTREMELY HOT fits though she returns off the 165-day layoff giving up recency to others in this field and with a change in distance back toa a sprint. While she was effective here last season  this is a slight step up from those events and could be a shorter price given the connections. #5 PALACE MAGIC finds class relief returning from her races here this season at Hawthorne. She can be upgraded off the trip EX – EXCUSE two weeks ago at Fan Duel.

Similar to Race 1, trainer Max Quinonez returns with a pair and both deserving of a look in their own right though require returning to a top effort/speed figure to win. #1 LINDALOUIMAGE turned in a competitive B- OptixGRADE race starting off the season on March 16^th and deserving of some excuse with the TROUBLE on May 4^th as she was stepped on from behind in the early stages of the race. #2 WATCHING THE WHEELS showed a sneaky good finish (CLOSE) in her April 16^th sprint and should be plenty fit wheeling back from the WIDE trip at the route distance two weeks ago. 

#1 EGOMANIAC has been holding his form and figures this season to suggest he is in form though was overmatched in those Oaklawn Park races. He moves up on this circuit and level keying off the races under similar conditions last season, both competitive and earning the IMPROVE (and TACTIC-) and October 7^th and stepped up with a B OptixGRADE on October 22^nd. 

#6 ARMAVIR debuted in a solid race and full 14 horse field back in December at Meydan. The race has been productive going forward including the race winner, Shirl’s Bee finishing second in the UAE Two Thousand Guineas and show finisher Go Soldier Go winning a listed stakes in March at Meydan and recently finishing 5^th in the Peter Pan at Belmont last Saturday. ARMAVIR was not quite on the level of the top flight, though showed run in spots and racing in TRAFFIC. He has been on the grounds training toward this second start and given plenty of time to acclimate since the late December race and should see today’s field as class relief.

#5 BORDER SPIN also caught a solid field in his maiden claiming debut last November at Churchill with the race winner, Joey Freshwater winning the Bay Shore (G3) in April at Aqueduct. It appears positive and intent with Becker claiming this colt from the debut and reset for 2023 to show up on this circuit and protected in Special Weight company.

#7 IZEONDEC should offer value in this race and capable of getting overlooked off the EX – EXCUSE on April 13^th their local debut and first start of the form cycle. The trip was compromised with TROUBLE and showed run making a WIDE MOVE with visuals to suggest a move forward. As far as the surface switch to the turf, there should be no issues as this one has turf form from last year and figures that stack up with their current form and par for this claiming event.

#2 MODIFIER is a lightly raced type and with progression this season could present another move forward. This will be their turf debut, though intent to run on the turf is noted as they were scheduled to debut on turf going back to the November 27^th race. Value as suggested by the morning line keeps #8 KINGSBURRY ATTACK in the mix. Intent should be in play as they were given (NO_PUSH) in the April 29^th layoff return at Fan Duel, a race run under the lights, in the pouring rain and high winds to take the figure and finishing position with a grain of salt.

Number wise and with the connections, #5 RIGHT ON RICHIE projects to be a heavy favorite. Their early speed was effective with the FLOW aided maiden win last season at Colonial, however, has been unable to pick up that second win even with similar softer race dynamics and should find an honest, contentious (60 SpeedRate) pace here that will have them tested. As far as form they pick this spot after a vet scratch from a N1X allowance (5.5f dirt) back on March 19^th. Stretch out sprinter, #6 MODAZZLE should keep the pace honest with tactical speed and the distance change. There has been intent for the turf and two turn distance, noting a scratch from May 8^th at HS Indy to run here when those races came off the turf.

As an individual #1 MOMENT appears the horse to beat – they are in form, paired up wins at the level and speed figures this season. However...as a race, they will be tested with the projected dynamic and shift to the rail post for this race. Hernandez was able to work out favorable (TACTIC+) trips last month and will be tested to repeat here at another expected shorter price.

#4 DANVILLE figures the logical alternative and one that should present a move forward to compete in this race. The WEATHER conditions on April 20^th along with the WIDE trip played against them and to their credit still turned in an honest race. They have back numbers to suggest a move forward today and class that stacks up for this level and on this circuit looking no further than the win here back on December 4^th.  #6 JEFF THE LION comes into this race with progressive form and fitness on his side. He was asked to push the pace (BOS) on April 20^th though showing early front end speed is not his true RunStyle and should be able to default to a stalking trip here. 

#2 PAPA ROCKET is a solid favorite in this race. They have form and class making a lateral move from the Oaklawn races this season to stack up on par on this circuit. Taking that one step forward, the starter allowance back on April 15^th was a higher race par (OFR) and despite the running line and finishing position, he showed an inside MOVE and the race itself has produced two next out winner with both Espionage and Slam Dunk Sermon improving their speed figures at the same time.

#3 TWIRLING ROSES was showing declining form at the Fair Grounds and was willing to see another race on this circuit especially returning as a shorter price on April 30^th. That race was their first start back of the form cycle and should present a move forward (and value) with the recent run line. Some further intent should be in play with Emigh, the win rider from last season taking back over today.

The value shift from that April 30^th allowance could see #5 SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY shorter of the two today. To the credit of trainer, Reavis, they have been able to find the top form for this horse and returning from a solid effort (WIDE, CLOSE) with the place finish, though must find another move forward today in order to win. 

#4 CELESTIAL SPIN looked intended for the turf this season and with Cristel giving her the race on April 27^th coming back from a 97-day layoff. She could get overlooked with that run line and finishing position sitting on top of the past performances, though from the visuals she projects to IMPROVE as she showed run making a WIDE MOVE after a TROUBLE_S and behind the open length chalk winner, Protomagic.

The horse to beat still figures #3 COMMAND POINT on class and speed figures as she makes her Hawthorne debut. She has the closer (Quad IV Square) RunStyle to keep in mind with the expected shorter price, though in terms of race dynamic should have pace to run at with many stretch out types and horses coming back off the layoff. 

Three in here with speed sets things up for 6-PRANCIPANTS to close in the lane. This barn has had success this meet and the turn back in distance off a win won't hurt. 2-FANCY EMPRESS also gets a great pace setup ahead of her. The added 16th off her last start helps. 4-SNOOTY may be the fastest of the fast. Lets see if she is able to run on in the lane if pressed.

Not a ton of pace in here. Look to 5-PALACE MAGIC as she takes a class drop and could be quick enough to clear and wire these. 3-ALL AMERICAN JEWEL chased in her last and ran evenly in the lane. Let's see if she improves off that race. 6-SHE'S XTREMELY HOT turns back in distance and may need pace to chase. Let's see how many she picks off in the lane.

Pace should be contentious in here, setting things up for 1-EGOMANIAC to run on in the lane. He comes in off the tough Oaklawn meet and fits well. 7-TRIPLE CHROME likely sits a bit closer early in here. He ran well last out and let's see how the form transitions to two turns. 2-PIRATE BIRD may be below these others for speed figures but the pace could be perfect for him. He's worth a look at a price.

Tough spot but the lightly raced 1-BLAME SHIFTER looks to be improving and should improve in his second start around two turns. 7-MINNESOTA MOON has speed. If he is able to shake loose early, he could run back to his race from two starts back and hang around late. 2-GOLD SMOKE ran a big race at a big price last out. He has some tactical speed and may be able to rate close to the early pace.

Thinking the pace will be quick early on as 7-IZEONDEC should be able to settle early and run on in the lane. He ran well on the dirt last out but has past turf races that show he will handle the lawn. 10-STORM BORN is another that may move up with the move to the turf. He figures to settle in the second flight early and run on in the lane. 5-RIGHT ON RICHIE is one with speed in here. If he shakes loose he will be tough but he could be pushed along.

Sure looks like a lot of pace in this race. 4-DANVILLE ran well last out and may get the perfect trip in here. He has found the board in six of eight starts over the track. 1-MOMENT has speed but can also rate and battle if challenged. He's going to take a lot of action in this spot. Hoping 2-ASTI SKY can stalk and pounce in the lane. He sometimes steps up when you least expect it.

Thinking there's enough pace for 2-PAPA ROCKET to rate behind and close into in the lane. He comes out of a tough Oaklawn meet and merits a look. 3-TWIRLING ROSES has had success over the track and also figures to run on late. He may be overlooked. 4-TEE BURNS does have speed but has also had success over this track. Let's see if he tries to clear in here.

There appears to be four evenly-matched contenders in this six-horse field. Three of them will likely vie for the lead. That leaves 6-PRANCIPANTS as the best closer. She wired the field in her most recent start but that was a route. With the turn back in distance she’s not likely to display the same kind of speed as the other three early burners but she just might be able to run them down late. 3-APOLLO YOU ANYWHERE ran well in two of her three races this year. She wired the field in last, finished up the track on a muddy track versus starters in her previous race and narrowly lost in another starter in her first race of the year. 4-SNOOTY dominated in last after narrowly losing her first two races of the year. Today, however, she’s going to be facing plenty of early speed, including Apollo You Anywhere, who defeated her in her previous start. But she is quick. If she breaks on top she might never look back.

5-PALACE MAGIC looks tough. She couldn’t handle starter company in last downstate but she finished second in her previous two races and she was in against much tougher than these. 6-SHE'S XTREMELY HOT is probably better going long and this might only be a drill but she does race for sharp connections and she gets a sharp rider in the irons. Expect a late attack. 3-ALL AMERICAN JEWEL could improve in her second trip over the track. She finished third in her first start of the meet. Can better than today.

This was a tough race to handicap and I’m still not sure if my thinking is correct. Most of the runners have some degree of early speed but probably not a clear edge. So, I landed on 1-EGOMANIAC he has no speed but he often finishes well. On the other hand, he’s making his 40^th start with only the two victories and none for a year and a half. He would be better at a longer distance but he might still be able to nail them late. 7-TRIPLE CHROME, with the stretch out, is probably going to be the quickest of the bunch. He finished second in his only previous dirt route race so it’s surprising that they haven’t tested him going long since that race almost a year ago. Maybe he’ll thrive at this distance, especially if the speed bias manifests again. 3-WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR is lightly raced compared to the rest but his last race was awful. He was claimed from that start so we’ll have to see if he can bounce back for his new connections.

Another race that anyone can win. Not impressed with how any of those that have run have raced so let’s go with the well-bred first timer 4-GOING AT IT. His works have been on the slow side but they have been steady. It’s a bit of an ask for a horse making their debut around two turns but it’s not impossible. 7-MINNESOTA MOON looks like the best speed. He led most of the way two starts back and again displayed good speed in last before caving in around a half mile in. How long will he last today? 1-BLAME SHIFTER split the field containing many members of this field in his last start. However, he never really showed any run. Maybe he’ll improve in his second two-turn trip.

Wow! Another “impossible” race. Can we surprise with 2-MODIFIER? He’s never shown much but he does have a good turf pedigree and it’s worth noting that he was entered on turf for his career debut but the race was moved to the main track and the turf season ended before he could get another shot on the lawn 5-RIGHT ON RICHIE, morning-line favorite is probably the one to beat, simply because of the big class drop. He does have a turf win to his credit. However, he loves the front end and that could be a very busy place in this field. He might wire them but he might also fold under pressure. 7-IZEONDECK hasn’t shown it lately but he might be the best closer in this field. He had a couple good turf races in Minnesota last year. If the projected fast pace does take place, he could fly by them all. 

1-MOMENT could continue to roll. Winner of last two won 17 of his career 53 starts and has also been victorious in five of his six local starts, finishing second in the other. 4-DANVILLE seems to have the best chance of beating top choice. His local record hasn’t been quite as good but he has been knocking at the door while often meeting tougher rivals. He was beaten as the odds-on favorite in last. Could make emends at a square price. 6-JEFF THE LION tired after dueling for the lead from the start in last. He wound up finishing a length behind Danville. However, he doesn’t need the lead. He’s been quite capable when laying off the pace.

Have to give 3-TWIRLING ROSES another chance. He beat only one in his last start but he had been so good on this track for so long prior to that race, winning seven of his 13 local appearances. Switches back to Chris Emigh as the pilot and they won both times they teamed up in the past. 2-PAPA ROCKET had no chance after a poor break in his first start after getting claimed by this barn. There should be plenty of pace to set up for this late runner, even if he doesn’t break alertly. 4-TEE BURN does well on this track. He tired downstate in last but he had been in good form for months prior to that race. Can bounce back.

3-COMMAND POINT looks tough. Good late move should have her sailing late. The biggest question is whether this race is long enough for her. We’ll soon find out.6-WANDA STRONG has the distinction of being the only one with a win at today’s distance. She’s dropping back in for a tag. She finished third in her last turf start which turned out to be a “key” race. She could be a major player at this level at a great price. 2-GHAALEB’S DREAMS is hard to gauge. She narrowly lost her only turf start, racing at this level, but she hasn’t run in a year and a half. Would expect this barn to have her ready off the long layoff but there’s no guarantee.

T 2 Glenfidich 3 My One Percent 8 Southwind Cerveza

P 7 Ruthy B 2 Quite Nice 4 Uncontrolled

T 9 Warrawee Yang 8 Sweet Detrimination 7 Devereux Seelster

P 10 Moonstruck 9 Prove Em Wrong 7 Sis

P 7 Sable Amber 8 Manhattan Night 9 Faithfuls Nola

T 2 Menso 9 Cassius Hanover 7 Cardio Muscle

T 7 Overpayment 4 Warrawee Yes 1 Bar Brawl

P 7 Century Jamila 2 Front Page Story 4 Lady Get Lucky

P 9 High Flyin Jamie 8 Mach Impact 7 Art Of Fire

T 8 Lucy Who 1 Chocolate Parfait 2 Last Page First