Handicapper Tips & Picks

This is a tricky race where any in this group could be getting their picture taken that includes #1 RANK AND FILE one of the lesser “obvious” runners in this field. As far as the condition she finds a lateral change with race par while racing above the “non winners of two in 2023” condition where she is eligible for N1Y. As far as her form this season, the connections have been overly optimistic bringing her back in allowance company and even at the higher claiming level on April 6^th. The timing was also noted as she has been running back on short rest during April and has been given the 32-day freshening, a positive in form cycle. The other subtle change in rider is also noted as Tavares takes over and while he has not been aboard this mare for Hughes, he was up for the previous connections and had success in four starts with a win, two show finishes and a fourth in higher allowance company on the turf.

Intent also appears to be in play for #2 FANCY EMPRESS on an every other pattern to suggest a move forward, keying off the speed figures and BTL effort on April 16th. She requires a top effort, though that could also come with intent finding both a rider change and the blinkers off. Her RunStyle is similar to Prancipants (Quad IV Squares) looking to take advantage of any early pace contention. As far as the early pace. the Quinonez pair of #3 APOLLO YOU ANYWHERE and #5 COOKIN ROSES the two share a similar E/EP RunStyle and Quad I Plot position and project to be joined by #4 SNOOTY coming first off the claim and win on April 30th. 

Going back to April 30^th, #7 GHAALEB’S MAGIC was upgraded on the Plot before the scratch and returns under similar conditions and with another favorable Plot position as a Quad I Square that is tough to ignore.

Number wise #6 SHE’S XTREMELY HOT fits though she returns off the 165-day layoff giving up recency to others in this field and with a change in distance back toa a sprint. While she was effective here last season  this is a slight step up from those events and could be a shorter price given the connections. #5 PALACE MAGIC finds class relief returning from her races here this season at Hawthorne. She can be upgraded off the trip EX – EXCUSE two weeks ago at Fan Duel.

Similar to Race 1, trainer Max Quinonez returns with a pair and both deserving of a look in their own right though require returning to a top effort/speed figure to win. #1 LINDALOUIMAGE turned in a competitive B- OptixGRADE race starting off the season on March 16^th and deserving of some excuse with the TROUBLE on May 4^th as she was stepped on from behind in the early stages of the race. #2 WATCHING THE WHEELS showed a sneaky good finish (CLOSE) in her April 16^th sprint and should be plenty fit wheeling back from the WIDE trip at the route distance two weeks ago. 

#1 EGOMANIAC has been holding his form and figures this season to suggest he is in form though was overmatched in those Oaklawn Park races. He moves up on this circuit and level keying off the races under similar conditions last season, both competitive and earning the IMPROVE (and TACTIC-) and October 7^th and stepped up with a B OptixGRADE on October 22^nd. 

#6 ARMAVIR debuted in a solid race and full 14 horse field back in December at Meydan. The race has been productive going forward including the race winner, Shirl’s Bee finishing second in the UAE Two Thousand Guineas and show finisher Go Soldier Go winning a listed stakes in March at Meydan and recently finishing 5^th in the Peter Pan at Belmont last Saturday. ARMAVIR was not quite on the level of the top flight, though showed run in spots and racing in TRAFFIC. He has been on the grounds training toward this second start and given plenty of time to acclimate since the late December race and should see today’s field as class relief.

#5 BORDER SPIN also caught a solid field in his maiden claiming debut last November at Churchill with the race winner, Joey Freshwater winning the Bay Shore (G3) in April at Aqueduct. It appears positive and intent with Becker claiming this colt from the debut and reset for 2023 to show up on this circuit and protected in Special Weight company.

#7 IZEONDEC should offer value in this race and capable of getting overlooked off the EX – EXCUSE on April 13^th their local debut and first start of the form cycle. The trip was compromised with TROUBLE and showed run making a WIDE MOVE with visuals to suggest a move forward. As far as the surface switch to the turf, there should be no issues as this one has turf form from last year and figures that stack up with their current form and par for this claiming event.

#2 MODIFIER is a lightly raced type and with progression this season could present another move forward. This will be their turf debut, though intent to run on the turf is noted as they were scheduled to debut on turf going back to the November 27^th race. Value as suggested by the morning line keeps #8 KINGSBURRY ATTACK in the mix. Intent should be in play as they were given (NO_PUSH) in the April 29^th layoff return at Fan Duel, a race run under the lights, in the pouring rain and high winds to take the figure and finishing position with a grain of salt.

Number wise and with the connections, #5 RIGHT ON RICHIE projects to be a heavy favorite. Their early speed was effective with the FLOW aided maiden win last season at Colonial, however, has been unable to pick up that second win even with similar softer race dynamics and should find an honest, contentious (60 SpeedRate) pace here that will have them tested. As far as form they pick this spot after a vet scratch from a N1X allowance (5.5f dirt) back on March 19^th. Stretch out sprinter, #6 MODAZZLE should keep the pace honest with tactical speed and the distance change. There has been intent for the turf and two turn distance, noting a scratch from May 8^th at HS Indy to run here when those races came off the turf.

As an individual #1 MOMENT appears the horse to beat – they are in form, paired up wins at the level and speed figures this season. However...as a race, they will be tested with the projected dynamic and shift to the rail post for this race. Hernandez was able to work out favorable (TACTIC+) trips last month and will be tested to repeat here at another expected shorter price.

#4 DANVILLE figures the logical alternative and one that should present a move forward to compete in this race. The WEATHER conditions on April 20^th along with the WIDE trip played against them and to their credit still turned in an honest race. They have back numbers to suggest a move forward today and class that stacks up for this level and on this circuit looking no further than the win here back on December 4^th.  #6 JEFF THE LION comes into this race with progressive form and fitness on his side. He was asked to push the pace (BOS) on April 20^th though showing early front end speed is not his true RunStyle and should be able to default to a stalking trip here. 

#2 PAPA ROCKET is a solid favorite in this race. They have form and class making a lateral move from the Oaklawn races this season to stack up on par on this circuit. Taking that one step forward, the starter allowance back on April 15^th was a higher race par (OFR) and despite the running line and finishing position, he showed an inside MOVE and the race itself has produced two next out winner with both Espionage and Slam Dunk Sermon improving their speed figures at the same time.

#3 TWIRLING ROSES was showing declining form at the Fair Grounds and was willing to see another race on this circuit especially returning as a shorter price on April 30^th. That race was their first start back of the form cycle and should present a move forward (and value) with the recent run line. Some further intent should be in play with Emigh, the win rider from last season taking back over today.

The value shift from that April 30^th allowance could see #5 SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY shorter of the two today. To the credit of trainer, Reavis, they have been able to find the top form for this horse and returning from a solid effort (WIDE, CLOSE) with the place finish, though must find another move forward today in order to win. 

#4 CELESTIAL SPIN looked intended for the turf this season and with Cristel giving her the race on April 27^th coming back from a 97-day layoff. She could get overlooked with that run line and finishing position sitting on top of the past performances, though from the visuals she projects to IMPROVE as she showed run making a WIDE MOVE after a TROUBLE_S and behind the open length chalk winner, Protomagic.

The horse to beat still figures #3 COMMAND POINT on class and speed figures as she makes her Hawthorne debut. She has the closer (Quad IV Square) RunStyle to keep in mind with the expected shorter price, though in terms of race dynamic should have pace to run at with many stretch out types and horses coming back off the layoff.