Handicapper Tips & Picks

Most of the runners in here are in lackluster form but, for the most part, that form has been in dirt races. That doesn’t reflect their turf form so expect a lot of improvement from many of these runners. I’m thinking that 7-DYNABLUE can improve the most. He has always faced better runners on the lawn and if you throw out his main-track races, and he obviously doesn’t like the main track, his lifetime record isn’t that bad. 1-SIERRA HOTEL didn’t show a thing in an optional in last in New Orleans but he figures to display far better speed with the stretch in distance. 5-IOYA AGAIN has earned far more on turf than any of his rivals. He won the last time he ran on turf, a November race here at this level. He was claimed from last. We’ll see what kind of success he has for his new connections. 12-FLY NIGHTLY, like Sierra Hotel and Ioya Again, has six turf wins to his credit. Figures prominently if he gets into this race.

Don’t know if anyone in here holds a real speed advantage but 3-BEHAVIN MYSELF does seem most likely to get to the early lead. Like many in here he had to chase the speedy Troy Ounce in last. But in this race they are likely going to be chasing him. 5-PISTOL BOX might be the most “likely” to win this race. However, like so many of his rivals, he’s going to be coming from far off the pace. On the other hand, he has been meeting far tougher and class can tell. 1-GAGOOTS runs well with Tavares in the irons and Javier is back aboard today. They won last together and finished second the previous time Tavares was in the irons.

6-POSITIONDUMANI seems most likely. She finished second in her last two starts after finishing up the track in the first four races of her career. She’ll never be considered quick but she just might be the quickest of these. 2-PACIFIC VIEW lost her first race by about 30 lengths but improved dramatically in her first race here. She was dropped into maiden claimers for that start and flew late to miss by a rapidly-diminishing neck. Moves back into “specials” for this but if she runs the way she did in her last start, which was her first race of the year, there might be no stopping her. 3-FREEDOM ATTACK faces open company for the first time. However, she does own pretty good early speed when she gets out of the gate in good order. Might wind up fighting for the lead.

2-D’FEVER can win right back. He scored the last two times he took on rivals similar to these. Might be able to do it again. 7-ALEBRIJE should win by the length of the stretch…if he’s ok. Why the big drop after finishing second for $25k? I’d rather look stupid for picking against him but rather than have you throw your money away. Extreme caution is urged. 6-MUD ISLAND is another dropper but his drop makes sense. He hasn’t been competitive against better but he could make full use of his good speed at this level.

This race is totally up for grabs. There appears to be three top contenders but all are in poor form. Captivating Moon seems like the class but he hasn’t won in over two years. Dowagiac Chief ships in for tough connections but he’s had 10 races with three wins and when he doesn’t win, he doesn’t get close. Ian Glass has seven turf victories but none for two years. But someone will win this and it almost has to come from the aforementioned runners. I’m guessing it will be 5-CAPTIVATING MOON. The distance of this race could be too short for his best effort but think there will be plenty of pace to set up for his late run. 7-DOWAGIAC CHIEF isn’t the only speed but he could be best prepared to carry his speed all the way. 1-IAN GLASS is likely first from the gate but he has been tiring late in sprints. On the other hand, he might get such an easy early lead that he’ll have plenty left for the finish.

Don’t really like anyone, other than the obvious, in this race but going to take a chance with 8-DEVLISH HOUR. He has been finishing up the track at Oaklawn while meeting Arkansas breds but he had a couple strong efforts at Canterbury last year. 7-SANTINO’S FANTASY and 5-STAN THE CAMERAMAN dueled for the lead in last which cost them both the race. Unfortunately, the pace of this race seems to set up the same way. That could lead to the same outcome.

The race is for second place. 5-OEUVRE is likely worth the short price. She’s been a standout in so many of her races but especially at Hawthorne where she has been victorious in six of her eight starts, losing only a couple stakes races here when she was two. She recently lost a couple turf sprints in Kentucky but she’ll find the company much easier in this spot. 3-PURR SEA is probably the better of the two Boyce-trained runners in here. She did beat Oeuvre in that rival’s only two local losses. But she couldn’t hold off that filly in her last start and she is making her first start of the year. 9-RAINY MOUNTAIN hasn’t had the success of many in here but she is adding blinkers and the probable blistering pace of this race could benefit her strong closing move.

Tough race to figure. Only three members of this field ever ran on turf but most do have some turf influence in their pedigrees. Landed on 9-OUT OF DEDUCTIONS. He split the field in his lone race, a turf contest at Tampa. He’s had three good local drills since that start, including a recent bullet. 10-MO TIME AT ALL had a couple turf races at Fair Grounds and, although he didn’t get close, he ran respectably. Might be meeting a bit easier here and turf experience could help. 4-AQUACAT owns good speed and he led much of the way in his last turf race but got nailed late. Meets tougher here but, again, experience can count. 8-ICE VORTEX ran evenly in his starts at Gulfstream on their synthetic track but his trainer here has been getting the most out of his runners. This team won with Modifier the other day, another runner by sire Gio Ponti. Don’t overlook. 7-THREE ROUGH SHODS didn’t show a thing in his debut race here but his pedigree suggests we could see a whole different runner with the move to the lawn.