Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 FORWARD CURVE could be a heavy favorite in this race for the connections and prior turf form. While those factors are in play, current form along with run style present some challenges as they were entered to run for the $7.5k tag on May 16^th at Fan Duel and a vet scratch, unable to participate. The pace does present to be contentious with FORWARD CURVE one that has some tactical speed.

That front end trip could also be in play for #4 PINBALLER, a runner coming into this race with form, foundation this season and should move up returning to the TURF as the connections have been patiently waiting for this spot. #7 GATE CREW also projects to move up with the return to the turf for Boyce. He has some buried form this season; they were on a progressive figure pattern leading up to the April 20^th race – a race/effort/figure that can be taken with a grain of salt given the WEATHER conditions with high winds making it tough to make up ground and GATE CREW still showed a MOVE and run despite the outcome. 

#1 MEMPHIS PRAYER should not be ignored in this race and with the surface switch making his TURF debut. Physically he should handle the surface, there has been intent to run on the turf going back to a pair of starts last season at HS Indy and they current form this season fits on both numbers and class. Trip will be key as this one tends to do his better running from off the pace though should be plenty of price compensation with that run style. 

The timing could be right for #3 CAIRO SUMMER off her form this season and the right price wheeling right back off the EX – EXCUSE last week. Nothing went right in that trip, and she still showed run all things considered. Trainer, Witthauer will return with some changes shifting back to the main track, sprint/one-turn distance and make a key rider change to Mojica. As far as her form this season under similar conditions she turned in a competitive race (B- OptixFIG and 67 OptixFIG) on March 26^th and followed up that run with a BTL showing on April 13^th. 

This is a competitive race, and the dynamic makes this even a trickier puzzle. #1 TIMEHASCOME ran BTL with the change in RunStyle from off the pace following a SLOG (slow out of the gate) on May 4^th. Emigh is taking back over today and with the rail draw they could revert back to the front running style that was effective back in April. #5 IRONMAN RICHIE should be forward regardless, he is quick and that is his natural RunStyle. #3 BOURBON TEDDY also has early speed, though a poor GATE horse and if allowed to rate behind those other two drawn to his inside/outside could fall into a trip. His form cycle is positive and figures to rebound to the April 20^th type effort.

That Contention could be set up for #2 SPEEDY G, a horse that has back numbers and class that fits at this N3 claiming level. Positive intent also looks in play returning to a sprint while this horse has shown improvement on this circuit and from those April races. #6 DEORA STORE has races that make him a contender; however, those races were for the previous connections. That should be considered here as he must improve for Hughes and return to that prior form.

The analysis starts with #4 FREE LOVE making her third start this year and a significant drop in class. Going back to her races last year, she showed run and competitive numbers in each start. She looked to be “given” the route allowance race off the layoff on April 11^th and projected to move forward here on May 4^th, though did not show much improvement. There could be some excuse and the barn also sent out the show finishers, Dessert First (ridden by O. Hernandez) and appeared more fancied of the two. FREE LOVE broke SLOG, something of a pattern for her and struggled over the track and to compete in the race. She has the races and potential intent to turn it around here, though she must do so and there are no guarantees.

Martinez looked to place #1 JEMEZ FALLS in a spot where she was protected first off the claim and not much was asked from her on May 9^th and similar from the wagering standpoint cold off the 7-2 morning line. #5 STAR OF TOMORROW will make her local debut and look to continue the progression she showed with each start at Oaklawn Park. Her debut was an EX – EXCUSE and the WIDE trip against the March 19^th dynamic set her up ideally with the class drop to clear the maiden condition on April 14^th.

#3 GET NONE has a strong presence in this race looking at OptixPLOT though gives up recency as she returns from the 221-day layoff for this seasonal debut. #9 SENSE OF SELF could be sneaking into hits race under the radar. She will return to the turf and the benefit of recency exiting the April 23^rd Optional Claiming event to make her second start off the layoff. In addition to conditioning, her trip and all around visuals (See OptixNOTE in Past 3 Runlines/PLOT) suggest she was given (PREP, TACTIC-) the race and showed a sneaky CLOSE and GALLOP+ to assist her today in order to IMPROVE.

The OptixNOTE Projection for #2 APRIL’S GEM suggests a move forward for her as she switches back to the TURF, her preferred surface. #1 STACY ATTACK will be required to not only hold her form, but also improve on the class rise coming off of the win. She will shift back to the turf, a surface she has buried form over keying off her sophomore season and from a physical standpoint fits sprinting on the turf.

#2 BLACK RUSSIAN is worth another look as he makes his second start for Perez and second start on this circuit. Perez discussed needing some time with the set of shippers coming in from overseas and as far as a first race should benefit from the experience. This one fits that bill and can be given an EX – EXCUSE making a mess of the break and then a RUSH and RANK behind horses before losing ground. In addition to the conditioning, the change in distance cutting back to ONE_TURN should suit this horse as well. Perez also returns with #5 GUST OF WIND following a vet scratch from a similar maiden claiming race back on May 4^th. His races this season have been competitive and less than ideal rider TACTIC- where the change to Felix could make a difference. While some intent could be in play, his tendency to SLOG and run from off the pace should be considered in weighing value.

Watkins also with a pair in this race in what could be a complementary pair as #8 UNCAPTURED DREAM has shown early speed and will look to show that here first off the claim and on this circuit as the blinkers added; #1 FABRICATOR could be sitting on a peak effort making their second start for the barn and off the claim. They have been holding their form and figures at this MDN $15k level, though slightly below what has been required to win, though today’s race par on the lower end could move them forward on that subtle shift alone.

Rivelli sending out #7 MAD DRAGON is worth a mention as not only as this one expects to take money for the connections, but the barn has been trying to get this one to the track noting four scratches in 2022 and will look for today to be that belated debut for this four-year-old. 

Even with the “Fire” Contention the 40 SpeedRate might be just enough for #8 OMAHA RED (Quad I Square) to sit the trip and prevail as one of the forwardly placed runners. Should the Contention and SpeedRate prove too much for Omaha Red, the Quad IV Squares will be looking to pick up the chase in the lane. The Plot visuals show separation between those two flights of runners, another potential advantage for OMAHA RED, with #9 BROKEN RIB (Large Square), arguably the best of the closers tasked with Mojica calling the shots and not leaving himself too much to do.

#5 SECRET OPERATION could get overlooked for the connections and land in the right place and price for today’s race. She finds some favorable changes; primarily with the class DROP, though also based on physicality should handle the TURF keying off the OptixNOTE visuals from her debut.

#1 GETTIN DOWN did not give off the strong "turf" visuals though nothing strong to suggest she cannot handle the switch and should also move up on the drop, though given the connections does not project to have much in terms of price compensation for a horse that has no real strong edge. #6 IZZY’S MONSTER also should appreciate the move back to the TURF?, though could require more ground (ROUTER) and even the race as she returns today off the 222-day layoff.

Intent could be in play for #10 BLAME NELLIE coming back from the layoff and one of two entered (#11 CHROME RACER as MTO) for Roussel. This will be the first turf start for BLAME NELLIE, though the turf intent has been in play noted a pair of scratches this year looking to get to on the grass at the Fair Grounds. Longshot #8 STRONGENOUGHSTORM is class tested here as the primary knock. Outside of that, there is some form and turf intent keying off the August race last year at HS Indy. While she did not show much on the day she was compromised with step up to Special Weight, the outside post and X_WIDE trip as well as the layoff that followed that race and has the recency coming back this season for Reyes. 

The turf has played very evenly through the first couple of days of grass racing. It will be firm for the Thursday card. 1-MEMPHIS PRAYER should get the right pace setup ahead of him. The inside draw benefits with the short run to the turn as he should be flying late. 7-GATE CREW likes the grass but often comes up just short, with seven runner-up efforts on turf. Expect him to sit back early as well and close late. 10-COMMAND CENTRAL is another that will be well back early. He also can pick up the pieces in the lane.

With 2-BERTRADA and 6-SWEET FRAULEIN expected to take a lot of action, 3-CAIRO SUMMER could be the sleeper in here. She turns back to the dirt and to a sprint. She has won at the distance and picks up Mojica in the saddle. 6-SWEET FRAULEIN is the expected pace of the race. She cleared last out and wired the field. She will likely be sent for the top once again. 2-BERTRADA has to hope that Niff challenges Sweet Fraulein early. If she does, then this one should be able to rate and come rolling in the lane.

A good amount of early pace should set things up for 1-TIMEHASCOME to come rolling late. He rallied after a slow start last out and will be best off to sit back early and close in the lane. 6-DEORA STORE likely gets a similar trip. He drops back a notch in class and has been a god fit with Tavares in the saddle. 4-TEA AFTER BALLET is another that could sit back early and charge in the stretch. He doesn't like to win but could be picking up the pieces late.

Another race with a lot of pace.1-JEMEZ FALLS was in too tough after stepping up off the claim last out. She drops to a spot where she figures prominently. 2-BELLS OF JOY is just 1 for 29 in the win column but with 11 combined 2nd and 3rd place efforts she should be closing to get into the mix underneath. 5-STAR OF TOMORROW has faced tougher at Oaklawn. The only concern is that she was claimed out of the victory last out and the claim was voided.

3-GET NONE is the deserving favorite and will be heavily bet. She loves the grass and this distance. Trying to get creative to see if 10-RARE ACTION ATTACK can pull off the upset. The outside isn't a bad place to be in turf sprints as she ran well over this course last fall. 8-GO STORMIN GIRL likely settles closer early in here. She figures to tuck in right behind the leaders and get the jump on the closers late.

Tough trip last out for 1-FABRICATOR as he was hung wide early and just raced evenly late. With the move back to the sprint and the inside draw, a ground saving trip should have him running late. 5-GUST OF WIND closed nicely last out and just ran out of real estate. The added sixteenth helps but he will need pace to chase. 2-BLACK RUSSIAN only had one work heading into the route last out. He turns back in distance for his second start of the meet and should improve.

The post may be tough but it is likely full send for 1-GETTIN DOWN in here. As long as she is able to clear early, they may never catch her. 6-IZZY'S MONSTER is intriguing as she closed some ground in a turf sprint in Minnesota last summer. She may be able to pick up the pieces late. 10-BLAME NELLIE ships over from Indiana for this race. She will also likely settle and close but runs for top connections.

Think this race is 3-FORWARD CURVE’s to lose. Good inside speed, short run into the turn, and a rider that gets them out of the gate as good as anybody should give this gelding a fairly easy lead. He ran well enough in previous turf races and carried his speed most of the way in all of them. He’ll have to be caught.  7-GATE CREW could be tough. His recent races don’t give the whole story. He’s been running on dirt without a lot of success. However, he always faced much tougher on the lawn and more than held his own. Wakes up with the switch in surfaces. 4-PINBALLER had a pair of turf races, both maidens, and ran well in both. Surprising that they never tried him on turf again after that 2021 maiden win. But, he’s back on the lawn today and he might have the speed necessary to challenge top choice.

6-SWEET FRAULEIN was claimed for $15,000 in late March and then dropped into a $6250 NW3 in her first start for this barn. She romped, making every pole a winning one. Surprisingly her rider from that start will be the pilot of a different runner today. But she looks like the best of the speed once again. We could see a repeat performance. 2-BERTRADA ran well in both local starts, finishing third in last after a second-place finish in her local debut. She’ll be tracking the pace today, hoping top choice comes back to her. 4-NIFF switched barns after last. She’s getting the rider that rode top choice to victory in last. Might be a reason.

1-TIMEHASCOME has been great since getting to Hawthorne. He won his first two starts and then narrowly missed in last after getting away poorly. He’s among the fastest if he goes for the lead but he also showed in last that he’s good from off the pace. Looks tough either way. 5-IRONMAN RICHIE might be a little quicker than top choice though it’s hard to tell. He was caught in a speed duel in last with Bourbon Teddy while Timehascome was overcoming a poor start. But if he can break on top and not duel for the lead, there’s a chance he can lead all the way. 2-SPEEDY G could get close. He’s completing the sprint-route-sprint cycle. He’s going to be coming from off the pace and there is plenty of speed to set things up for his late move.

5-STAR OF TOMORROW fresh off graduation at Oaklawn looks like the one to catch. She’s not the only one in here with speed but she did have a couple good races at that tough Oaklawn meet. 4-FREE LOVE takes a much-needed class drop. She appears to have enough speed to challenge top pick early and she could thrive with the drop to the right level. 2-BELLS OF JOY could get the trip. She looks like the best closer in this speed-filled field. However, she’s making her 30^th start with only the one win to her credit. Hard to like.

3-GET NONE almost looks like a standout here. She hasn’t raced since October but she’s been training for a while. She has been a specialist at this distance, winning seven times in her 10 five-furlong races. Rider Chris Emigh has been aboard for seven of this mare’s 14 victories and he’s back as pilot today. 10-RARE ACTION ATTACK is worth another look. She has been competitive in most of her turf sprints, usually versus better company. Not sure if she’s capable of beating top choice but she’s a longshot capable of adding a lot of value to vertical gimmicks. 8-GO STORMIN GIRL isn’t as quick as some in here which means she isn’t likely to be one of the many fighting for the early lead. But she does have enough zip to race right behind the early leaders and she’ll be in the right position to make the first move if that group tires.

8-UNCAPTURED DREAM could turn out to be the quickest of these. He’s making his first start for this barn while shipping from a tougher circuit and adding blinkers should only enhance his natural speed. 7-MAD DRAGON has the pedigree and the connections. His drills, while not very fast, have been sufficient to get him into form. Can win at first asking. 5-GUST OF WIND will be coming late. Not sure he’ll close soon enough or fast enough but it does seem likely that he’ll get close enough to finish in the top three. 

8-OMAHA RED adds blinkers. He ran with them once, in the second start of his career. They didn’t seem to help but that was the only turf race of his career and he finished far back. But today they might help his focus. He had little chance against the lone speed in last and this field came up pretty tough but expecting him to be a major player. 6-MALPAIS has some back class. Versatile runner hasn’t been very effective so far this meet but willing to give him another chance. 7-COMISKEY PARK teased in many race before finally breaking through to win last. He’s among the best of the speed but just as capable when coming from off the pace.

1-GETTING DOWN makes her turf debut. She tired late in her only race but it was a strong prep. She has speed, the rail and a pedigree that suggests she’ll love the lawn. Beautifully-bred 10-BLAME NELLIE hasn’t shown a thing so far but she’s another making her turf debut and her barn is shipping her in to do it. Turns back in distance. Could come flying late. 4-GO ON GIRL is plenty quick. She tired in her lone turf start but she was favored in that race. Has enough speed to give top choice a run for the money.

10 Philosophos 6 Tf Crown Reserve 5 I Beacha

T 2 Twister Sister 6 Smashin Racquets 8 Dealers Delite

P 6 Hello Rocky 5 Malvolio 4 Thundering Jim

T 8 Chocolate Parfait 4 Mvn 5 Angel Of My Dreams

T 4 Ricardo 5 Titan Flax 7 Merchantman

P 1 Bettor Call Mom 2 Front Page Story 4 Siri Seelster

T 2 Yank My Halo 4 Whizzer Wallee 1 Glenfidich

T 4 Warrawee Yes 2 Buckhead Ridge 8 Raisealittlehill

P 8 Golden Jubilee 7 The Ideal Huntress 5 Sweet Rockin Gia

T 5 Dijmon 2 Whole Nother 1 Seeking Salvation

P 2 Sauble Amber 4 Sunshineatthebeach 8 Sunday Afternoon