Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 FORWARD CURVE could be a heavy favorite in this race for the connections and prior turf form. While those factors are in play, current form along with run style present some challenges as they were entered to run for the $7.5k tag on May 16^th at Fan Duel and a vet scratch, unable to participate. The pace does present to be contentious with FORWARD CURVE one that has some tactical speed.

That front end trip could also be in play for #4 PINBALLER, a runner coming into this race with form, foundation this season and should move up returning to the TURF as the connections have been patiently waiting for this spot. #7 GATE CREW also projects to move up with the return to the turf for Boyce. He has some buried form this season; they were on a progressive figure pattern leading up to the April 20^th race – a race/effort/figure that can be taken with a grain of salt given the WEATHER conditions with high winds making it tough to make up ground and GATE CREW still showed a MOVE and run despite the outcome. 

#1 MEMPHIS PRAYER should not be ignored in this race and with the surface switch making his TURF debut. Physically he should handle the surface, there has been intent to run on the turf going back to a pair of starts last season at HS Indy and they current form this season fits on both numbers and class. Trip will be key as this one tends to do his better running from off the pace though should be plenty of price compensation with that run style. 

The timing could be right for #3 CAIRO SUMMER off her form this season and the right price wheeling right back off the EX – EXCUSE last week. Nothing went right in that trip, and she still showed run all things considered. Trainer, Witthauer will return with some changes shifting back to the main track, sprint/one-turn distance and make a key rider change to Mojica. As far as her form this season under similar conditions she turned in a competitive race (B- OptixFIG and 67 OptixFIG) on March 26^th and followed up that run with a BTL showing on April 13^th. 

This is a competitive race, and the dynamic makes this even a trickier puzzle. #1 TIMEHASCOME ran BTL with the change in RunStyle from off the pace following a SLOG (slow out of the gate) on May 4^th. Emigh is taking back over today and with the rail draw they could revert back to the front running style that was effective back in April. #5 IRONMAN RICHIE should be forward regardless, he is quick and that is his natural RunStyle. #3 BOURBON TEDDY also has early speed, though a poor GATE horse and if allowed to rate behind those other two drawn to his inside/outside could fall into a trip. His form cycle is positive and figures to rebound to the April 20^th type effort.

That Contention could be set up for #2 SPEEDY G, a horse that has back numbers and class that fits at this N3 claiming level. Positive intent also looks in play returning to a sprint while this horse has shown improvement on this circuit and from those April races. #6 DEORA STORE has races that make him a contender; however, those races were for the previous connections. That should be considered here as he must improve for Hughes and return to that prior form.

The analysis starts with #4 FREE LOVE making her third start this year and a significant drop in class. Going back to her races last year, she showed run and competitive numbers in each start. She looked to be “given” the route allowance race off the layoff on April 11^th and projected to move forward here on May 4^th, though did not show much improvement. There could be some excuse and the barn also sent out the show finishers, Dessert First (ridden by O. Hernandez) and appeared more fancied of the two. FREE LOVE broke SLOG, something of a pattern for her and struggled over the track and to compete in the race. She has the races and potential intent to turn it around here, though she must do so and there are no guarantees.

Martinez looked to place #1 JEMEZ FALLS in a spot where she was protected first off the claim and not much was asked from her on May 9^th and similar from the wagering standpoint cold off the 7-2 morning line. #5 STAR OF TOMORROW will make her local debut and look to continue the progression she showed with each start at Oaklawn Park. Her debut was an EX – EXCUSE and the WIDE trip against the March 19^th dynamic set her up ideally with the class drop to clear the maiden condition on April 14^th.

#3 GET NONE has a strong presence in this race looking at OptixPLOT though gives up recency as she returns from the 221-day layoff for this seasonal debut. #9 SENSE OF SELF could be sneaking into hits race under the radar. She will return to the turf and the benefit of recency exiting the April 23^rd Optional Claiming event to make her second start off the layoff. In addition to conditioning, her trip and all around visuals (See OptixNOTE in Past 3 Runlines/PLOT) suggest she was given (PREP, TACTIC-) the race and showed a sneaky CLOSE and GALLOP+ to assist her today in order to IMPROVE.

The OptixNOTE Projection for #2 APRIL’S GEM suggests a move forward for her as she switches back to the TURF, her preferred surface. #1 STACY ATTACK will be required to not only hold her form, but also improve on the class rise coming off of the win. She will shift back to the turf, a surface she has buried form over keying off her sophomore season and from a physical standpoint fits sprinting on the turf.

#2 BLACK RUSSIAN is worth another look as he makes his second start for Perez and second start on this circuit. Perez discussed needing some time with the set of shippers coming in from overseas and as far as a first race should benefit from the experience. This one fits that bill and can be given an EX – EXCUSE making a mess of the break and then a RUSH and RANK behind horses before losing ground. In addition to the conditioning, the change in distance cutting back to ONE_TURN should suit this horse as well. Perez also returns with #5 GUST OF WIND following a vet scratch from a similar maiden claiming race back on May 4^th. His races this season have been competitive and less than ideal rider TACTIC- where the change to Felix could make a difference. While some intent could be in play, his tendency to SLOG and run from off the pace should be considered in weighing value.

Watkins also with a pair in this race in what could be a complementary pair as #8 UNCAPTURED DREAM has shown early speed and will look to show that here first off the claim and on this circuit as the blinkers added; #1 FABRICATOR could be sitting on a peak effort making their second start for the barn and off the claim. They have been holding their form and figures at this MDN $15k level, though slightly below what has been required to win, though today’s race par on the lower end could move them forward on that subtle shift alone.

Rivelli sending out #7 MAD DRAGON is worth a mention as not only as this one expects to take money for the connections, but the barn has been trying to get this one to the track noting four scratches in 2022 and will look for today to be that belated debut for this four-year-old. 

Even with the “Fire” Contention the 40 SpeedRate might be just enough for #8 OMAHA RED (Quad I Square) to sit the trip and prevail as one of the forwardly placed runners. Should the Contention and SpeedRate prove too much for Omaha Red, the Quad IV Squares will be looking to pick up the chase in the lane. The Plot visuals show separation between those two flights of runners, another potential advantage for OMAHA RED, with #9 BROKEN RIB (Large Square), arguably the best of the closers tasked with Mojica calling the shots and not leaving himself too much to do.

#5 SECRET OPERATION could get overlooked for the connections and land in the right place and price for today’s race. She finds some favorable changes; primarily with the class DROP, though also based on physicality should handle the TURF keying off the OptixNOTE visuals from her debut.

#1 GETTIN DOWN did not give off the strong "turf" visuals though nothing strong to suggest she cannot handle the switch and should also move up on the drop, though given the connections does not project to have much in terms of price compensation for a horse that has no real strong edge. #6 IZZY’S MONSTER also should appreciate the move back to the TURF?, though could require more ground (ROUTER) and even the race as she returns today off the 222-day layoff.

Intent could be in play for #10 BLAME NELLIE coming back from the layoff and one of two entered (#11 CHROME RACER as MTO) for Roussel. This will be the first turf start for BLAME NELLIE, though the turf intent has been in play noted a pair of scratches this year looking to get to on the grass at the Fair Grounds. Longshot #8 STRONGENOUGHSTORM is class tested here as the primary knock. Outside of that, there is some form and turf intent keying off the August race last year at HS Indy. While she did not show much on the day she was compromised with step up to Special Weight, the outside post and X_WIDE trip as well as the layoff that followed that race and has the recency coming back this season for Reyes.