Handicapper Tips & Picks

Not in love with 1-HURTS SO BAD but he does seem to make the most sense. He ran well against better in two of his three races at this meet. The drop to this level could do the trick. 3-TEA WITH LEMON figures prominently. He owns a good closing move, this race is filled with speed, and like top pick, he’s dropping in class. 2-I’M YOUR CAPTAIN didn’t show a thing in his first start against winners but he was super sharp breaking his maiden versus state breds in his previous start. He might be a little quicker from the gate than the rest. We’ll see.

5-SILVER CHILLER narrowly lost to the tough Dash To the Cash in last, the third start of his career, and had the lead late. Keeps the hot apprentice in the irons. Can build on that effort and graduate today. 7-MARE’S GUNNER makes his debut for a barn that usually does well with their first-time starters. Inconsistent drills might be a cause for concern but he does deserve the benefit of the doubt. 2-J J’S SOLUTION has had some good races but mostly versus open company. He showed little versus open maidens in last but think that he’ll improve with the move back to Illinois breds.

This seems like a closely-matched field with no standouts. Giving a small nod to 8-RISKY BOY. He’s been in good form all year. He’s been finishing behind some of these rivals lately but might be ready to kick it into another gear. 7-EASTER MUSIC improved with each passing start this year. He displayed better than his average speed in last and finished second. Could be chasing Chopper and be right there if that rival folds late.  2-CHOPPER looks like the best of the speed. However, he does tend to run out of gas late. But, if he isn’t challenged early, he might be able to hang on. 

2-GRAND HIDEAWAY should be tough. He’s been running competitively on dirt but think he can kick it into another gear with the move back to grass. He won three of his last five turf sprints. Should add to that success today. 4-DRAGON DREW is capable on or off the pace. He won only two of his 20 turf sprints but still finished in the money another 10 times. 6-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE has plenty of past class. He showed little in his recent turf races but he did wake up in last and wired the field on the main track. Maybe he’ll remember what he was best at and come up with a longshot victory.

8-MI CRESCENDO ships from a tougher meet and drops in class. She was totally outmatched versus starters in last but she did beat claimers in her previous start. Guessing she’ll run by all of them late. 1-FOGGY KITTEN has been in great form. She finished second in her last three races. She was claimed back by these connections after they lost her, via claim, in her previous start. She could fight for the lead from start to finish. 3-AUNT STELLA won her last and could repeat. Like top choice, she does her best running late. Might be able to make it two in a row. 

Good tough Illinois-bred race. Can make a case for all of them. But going to give the nod to 7-W W SCOUTS HONOR. Others in here have a better record at Hawthorne but his last race at Oaklawn was one of the better efforts of his career, even though he lost. If he runs like that today, he’s going to be tough to beat. 1-WALKER'S WIN is a perfect three-for-three at Hawthorne and he won five of his seven races at this distance. He was a bit outclassed in a $150k stakes race at Oaklawn in last but he beat top choice by three in his previous start here. 5-FAST JACK could be the best of the speed. However, he is making his first start of the year. That could be a determining factor if a multi-horse speed duel develops.

Interesting prep for the Hawthorne Derby. None in here are proven turf runners and most of them have never even raced on the surface. Don’t really know that 9-ACT A FOOL will race. He’s never been on turf but he simply crushed the last two fields he faced on dirt. 6-BAL A KAZOO is the lone turf winner in this field; a feat he accomplished in the first race of his career. He showed little in a stakes race following that win but took eight months off after that race and came back racing with Lasix. His last start was back on the lawn and he pressed the pace early from the outside post before tiring late. But that race should have set him up perfectly for this one. 3-SIVAKO will be coming late. He improved with each passing turf start. Could be motoring late. 5-MCMONEY didn’t get close in his lone turf start but he still managed to generate one of the highest turf speed figures from anybody in this field.

6-TAHOE RUN runs by them late. He barely lost his two races here in the fall and has been taking on tougher ever since. He just missed in a much tougher maiden at Oaklawn than he faces today. Should be worth the likely short price. 8-SHARP AS NAILS, like top choice, turns back in distance. His good natural speed helps greatly. He’s going to be racing closer to the pace than top choice and that might allow him to make the first move. It could be the winning one. 7-SHARP STICK has been meeting tougher maidens in Arkansas. He’s turning back in distance and his sprint “figs” place him squarely in the hunt. 1-LARRY THE POET is certainly worth another look. He races for one of the top barns and he has one of the top riders in his irons. His works seem sufficient. Could be a contender.