Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 CELESTIAL SPIN comes back to the turf and off an EX -EXCUSE back on May 18^th. As far as the trip goes, she encountered TROUBLE, ground loss (X_WIDE) and all around less than ideal rider TACTIC- (and NO_PUSH) that will see a change made today with Giles back aboard. Giles was aboard for her return on April 27^th, a race that appeared to be a prep (IMPROVE) in the first stack back off the layoff.

#3 COMMAND POINT also returns from the May 18^th common race and a “trip” in her own right (see OptixNOTES in the Past 3 Runlines) that played a role in the show result. Both runners should have pace to close into given the 50 SpeedRate.

As far as the pacesetters. #2 ZANDREA’S is upgraded to a Square on Surface/Distance and should improve with the switch back to grass, though still requires a top effort and price compensation. Her stablemate, #8 NO NANNETTE NO is upgraded to a Square on Standard (current form) and from the May 4^th race flow rushing up into a faster early pace. As far as her turf race and form she could also project a move forward from those efforts with those races run during her freshman/sophomore season and today is her third start off the four-year-old campaign.

The two Hugo Rodriguez runners fit on their bet day though both #5 EMBARRASSING and #7 NORTHERN ALLIANCE as older mares returning from layoffs have reservations with that combination and at shorter prices. 

Looking at OptixPLOT, #6 PLAY TWENTY should have a pace advantage (Quad I) with her early speed. She was able to pick up the win on May 6^th though looked all out (GALLOP-) after a RUSH to the lead finishing in a ride on her left lead/NO_LEAD. She has been given the 29-days since to recover and run back to a competitive race here. The place finisher from the May 6^th race, #4 GHAALEB’S APPEAL also returns here and while she did move into second late after the wire took a strange step, stumbled enough to toss rider Molina hard to the ground though was able to stay on her feet.

As far as the Plot, #3 COOKIN ROSES should be looking to get first run on Play Twenty, and with the rider chance could see her more assertively ridden here as they were passive to rate off the pace in the May 18^th event. She also wore front wraps for that race, a change from previous starts and something to look for today out on the track. Quinonez will also return with #2 WATCHIN THE WHEELS where visually she needed to show more in the May 18^th race and another to monitor as far as the front wraps where a removal could suggest intent and upgrade. #5 C V THUNDER ships in from Belterra Park and rated off the pace (TACTIC-) on May 19^th and needs a more aggressive ride for her best and one that could add pace pressure to Play Twenty.

#1 RANK AND FILE also returns from the May 18^th common race as well as the quick turnaround from May 28^th. She still has interest in running though can be a bit sour with the poor GATE behavior and negative reaction to the whip, though with the right trip can show more than the recent running lines and finishing position in this race – an upgrade on the Plot.  

#1 ROGER MCQUEEN figures logical in the role as the favorite. He was reclaimed by Rivelli and back in for a $12.5k tag, a move that is not concerning in this case just looking to place him where he can compete. As far as trip, he has enough tactical speed from the rail, though also capable of tracking off the Quad I runner, #4 TIMEHASCOME, #5 LUCKY SHOT and #6 ALPINE GHOST if needed.

That “Fire” Contention, brings #2 MISTER CHARMING into the mix late looking to pick up horses late upgraded to a Square on Surface/Distance. 

Rivelli is in position for back-to-back wins (and at expected shorter prices) with #4 ACT A FOOL. The intention has been documented for this spot and scratching from a higher Optional Claiming event on May 6^th (Derby day) and form a turf allowance here on May 28^th. Looking at the Plot, he has a clear early pace advantage as a Quad I Square.

#2 ICE BLAST has recorded some of the higher speed figures in this field and finds class relief returning here to the main track. That change should move him up in this spot though Mason has been colder here this season with horses that fit logically in their races and the barn still looking for their first (at the time of this analysis) win. 

The layoff is in play for both Chris Block trained runners, #7 POWER THROUGH and #2 SIMPLE LOGIC coming back in this allowance. Looking to separate, a slight class edge sides with Simple Logic of the pair and could be slightly higher of the two on the board.

#5 DANCE SOME MO shows up to make his first start on this circuit and should move up on the class change and circuit switch alone. His biggest challenge is often himself and the documented layoff lines. The first start for Rosin here suggests intent along with the strong blowout move on May 18^th. #4 GLOBAL EMPIRE was intended for the turf starting out his career though has had just limited opportunities over the grass. The lone turf effort in his second career start is tough to hold against him going back to March of 2021 and is worth another chance on the grass and holding his form this season could see himself in the mix.  

#6 TIME HEIST returns from the 56-day freshening and barn change to run protected in this starter allowance for trainer Jim Watkins. His early speed is respected in today’s race shape for the right trip forwardly placed – Quad I Square especially for today’s shorter 5.5f distance. The distance could be the prime hurdle for #3 TRY TRY AGAIN on that has form at the starter allowance condition as well as a major class edge over the others returning from the higher level Optional Claiming races from April and May. 

#4 EGOMANIAC is long overdue for a win going back to October 2021 for that most recent score. That win did come over this course and similar route distance when in for the $6250k tag, the N2L condition. With that said, he did come as close to the win as possible last October finishing in a photo at today’s distance and class– the B OptixGRADE indicating a “winning” effort for the level.  He projects to move forward in today’s race shape with the “Fire” Contention and following a TRAFFIC trip here on May 18^th.

#6 SPEEDY G must improve though can be upgraded at the projected number based on his Plot position. #1 AWESOME WILLY finds himself in a similar Plot position in Quad I though has some concerns at the shorter price stepping up in class and returning from the May 11^th win when drifting (NO_LINE) out late with just enough to hold on at the wire.

#3 FLASHY RICHIE has some buried form that fits at this level returning to a top effort. While he has not had any strong excuses at the level in his races this season, his RunStyle has been against the profile and race shape and could find the right dynamic here. Value is required though should be there given the complexion of this field. 

#7 PRADA’S MIRACLE was overmatched in the Special Weight races here last season and finds herself back on the TURF in this third start off the layoff, which began the year with an EX – EXCUSE and BTL effort back on April 2^nd. She has the potential to improve and compete in this spot though overall does not hold much of an edge over her rivals and the connections alone should have the number short on the board and open up the race to get creative.

#5 BEE A WINNER was intended for the turf going back to races in 2020 that do not show up on the paper past performances as she was scratched from those events taken off the turf. She made her belated debut last summer at Fan Duel and improved with races and even the shift to the turf and added ground here in October. While the 8^th place finish might not look like much on paper that number stands out from her dirt figures. Some intent could be in play as she makes her second start off the layoff, the shift to this circuit and coming off a sneaky CLOSE in that May 16^th sprint.

The surface switch should also benefit #9 LOTTA ROSES, one that has “lotta” experience though some of the higher numbers of the group on her best day that is tougher to ignore. #3 TWICK OR TWEAT has not run as fast though has moved up with each start and experience and the connections show some confidence with the slight step up in class and tested today for surface and stamina. 

A really tough race to open the day because there is barely any pace. Hoping 7-NORTHERN ALLIANCE can rate close as she has tons of turf races under her and likely needed her last. She should improve in here on the drop. 5-EMBARRASSING has a lot of back class. The one thing working against her is running style as she tends to sit well back early and make one run late. 3-COMMAND POINT is another that has had turf success. It was a good effort in her last and the added distance should help.

All comes down to the early pace battle here as there's a chance 3-COOKIN ROSES and 6-PLAY TWENTY burn each other out early. If one goes and the other rates, they could also run 1-2 the entire way. I'm hoping they battle, setting things up for longshot 4-GHAALEB'S APPEAL. She came off the layoff to run a good race last out, finishing second to Play Twenty in that spot. Mojica in the saddle today as she may be overlooked at the windows.

Figures to be an honest pace which could set things up for some to run on late. Maybe 6-ALPINE GHOST pulls off the upset as he comes back from Fairmount off a good second last out. He likes this track and runs for a barn that is having a great meet. 1-ROGER MCQUEEN has been popular in the claim box of late. He's back with Rivelli and will also look to rate and rally in here. 5-LUCKY SHOT was a good winner last out. He shouldn't be too far back early but also shouldn't be pushing the pace early either.

While I'm picking 4-ACT A FOOL in here, I think the horse wins but I don't think it will be as easy as the short odds he will likely go off at. He likes this track, likes the distance and has been great in two starts on the meet. The pace advantage helps but he is also the only 3yo in the race. 2-ICE BLAST has a big shot to upset. His last on grass was against a good bunch and his routes at Oaklawn were solid. He does have tactical speed which could put him closest to Act a Fool early. 5-FAMILY TRADITION was a good winner while sprinting last out. We will see how he handles the distance stretch but maybe he shows some speed as well.

Curious to see the pace in this race. 7-POWER THROUGH figures to make the top, but I don't know what to make of 5-DANCE SOME MO as he comes in from Santa Anita and shows speed in a Grade 1 on the grass last May. Maybe the pace is too quick and 6-LORING PARK gets the right trip. He likes this course, likes the distance, and today may get the perfect pace setup ahead of him. First start back for a barn that has had a very good meet. If loose, 7-POWER THROUGH may be gone. His last two starts last year were solid and he is working well toward the return. 2-SIMPLE LOGIC may be a sleeper in here. He posted a good Allowance win here last fall but has been away for 8 months. Wonder if he needs a race?

Anyone can win this race. No horse is committed to the lead and nobody should be too far back either. Based off recent form, 4-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER seems to be sitting on another good race. He won at this distance last out and seems to be a different racehorse since he has moved back to sprinting. I expect he sneaks off at a good price too. 1-SHACKLEFORD STRONG has the best chance of any to make the lead in here. The rail helps, he has two wins on the meet, and can't be dismissed. 3-TRY TRY AGAIN ran a huge race in victory at this level on April 23. He tried a really tough Allowance last out and held his own despite a troubled trip. This barn has had a solid meet but there may not be the value we normally get from them in here.

Willing to give 4-EEGOMANIAC another try as I really liked him last time out but hated the trip he got. There should be ample pace to chase in here as he figures to benefit from having a race over the track. The scary thing though is 2/40 lifetime in the win column so you will need a bit of a price to play on top. 3-FLASHY RICHIE is equally as scary at 2/35 for wins but also will get a great pace setup early. He has run well in his last couple and should be flying in the lane. 9-BLOOMING GARDEN has really run well in his last two, showing some versatility with being able to rate. If he can settle early, he should get first run on the closers once again.

Tough race. The most logical runners are coming off layoffs and the possible favorite is eligible for a non-winners of three. But going to go with 7-NORTHERN ALLIANCE. She didn’t show a thing in her lone race this year but that was a dirt race versus allowance company. She narrowly lost her two races at this level late last year. She could be flying late. 3-COMMAND POINT is eligible for a NW3 but she ran well in her first start of the meet after a couple good races in Tampa earlier in the year. 5-EMBARRASSING used to be a good one but she hasn’t been very effective lately and she hasn’t finished in the money since 2021. However, she’s never been in this easy on the lawn. Can awaken.  

4-GHALEEB'S APPEAL does have some appeal. He could possibly be the best closer in this field. Would like him better if this race was six furlongs or longer but if the pace is heated enough, he might be able to take them late. 6-PLAY TWENTY will draw plenty of action and might deserve it. He has a lot of “1’s” in his running lines and he did win two of his last three. However, he’s going to be meeting some other speed in this race and he might not even be the quickest from the gate. Will he prove to be vulnerable? 3-COOKIN ROSES is one that can challenge for the lead and he might be even quicker than Play Twenty from the gate. Of course, if one or the other speed runners doesn’t run, the remaining speed could be long gone.  

6-ALPINE GHOST might have finally found the right spot. This isn’t a big field but there should still be enough pace to set up for him. He should never be too far back and he could outfinish them all. Recent reclaim 1-ROGER MCQUEEN and recent claim 4-TIMEHASCOME could be vying for the lead and might be joined by recent winner Lucky Shot, right behind, pressing the pace. I think Timehascome will be first from the gate but the other two have been facing better rivals. 

4-ACT A FOOL has been impressive in his two local starts. He broke his maiden by five here on opening weekend and came back with another romp in his first start against winners. Can’t see anyone challenging him early. Can cruise home by daylight once again. 5-FAMILY TRADITION has never really shown any kind of speed but he’s a sprinter stretching out which would seem to enhance whatever speed he possesses. He won his last, his first race for this barn, but he might be taking on a tougher group here. 1-MILLARD'S SMILE and 2-ICY BLAST have shown some early zip in the past but think they would get used too hard trying to keep Act A Fool honest on the front end. They could be in a fight for second place. 

There is little speed to speak of in this race so the frontrunner duties might fall to either 2-SOUPER FORTUNE or 6-TIME HEIST. Time Heist used to be very quick but last fall they had him running from off the pace, which didn’t really work out. But in last, the race that made him eligible for this contest, he went right after the lead, put that rival away, and proceeded to draw off by daylight. Meets tougher in this spot but if he does turn out to be the only speed, he’ll never look back. Souper Fortune doesn’t always display speed but he could be as quick as any in here if they choose to send him. 4-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER came alive after they turned him back in distance. Winner of last two would probably have an even better chance if this race was at six furlongs or even six and a half, but expecting him to start motoring in midstretch.  

9-BLOOMING GARDEN might wind up being ignored in the wagering once again but he did finish second in his last two, he’ll be racing right behind the early leaders, and he’s getting a bit of a weight break with the switch to an apprentice rider. 5-UNCLE NICK hasn’t been in the best of form but he’s never been in this easy. Expecting a big turnaround with the drop in claiming price. 1-AWESOME WILLY tries to make it two in a row. He pretty much wired the field in last but he was clearly out of gas late and barely hung on. If he faces much early pressure again today, he just might fold. 

7-PRADA'S MIRACLE split the fields in her two previous turf races but she was in against better. Ignore her last couple on dirt. This will be the first time that she meets maiden claimers on the lawn. It could be graduation day. 10-MY JOJO makes only her third start. Like the way she ran in last when she made a good middle move to get into contention. That experience and the slightly longer distance of this race can work in her favor. 8-PRETTY IN PRADO never ran on turf but she is bred for it. Good speed should have her racing in close contention early. Could stay there throughout.