Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 CELESTIAL SPIN comes back to the turf and off an EX -EXCUSE back on May 18^th. As far as the trip goes, she encountered TROUBLE, ground loss (X_WIDE) and all around less than ideal rider TACTIC- (and NO_PUSH) that will see a change made today with Giles back aboard. Giles was aboard for her return on April 27^th, a race that appeared to be a prep (IMPROVE) in the first stack back off the layoff.

#3 COMMAND POINT also returns from the May 18^th common race and a “trip” in her own right (see OptixNOTES in the Past 3 Runlines) that played a role in the show result. Both runners should have pace to close into given the 50 SpeedRate.

As far as the pacesetters. #2 ZANDREA’S is upgraded to a Square on Surface/Distance and should improve with the switch back to grass, though still requires a top effort and price compensation. Her stablemate, #8 NO NANNETTE NO is upgraded to a Square on Standard (current form) and from the May 4^th race flow rushing up into a faster early pace. As far as her turf race and form she could also project a move forward from those efforts with those races run during her freshman/sophomore season and today is her third start off the four-year-old campaign.

The two Hugo Rodriguez runners fit on their bet day though both #5 EMBARRASSING and #7 NORTHERN ALLIANCE as older mares returning from layoffs have reservations with that combination and at shorter prices. 

Looking at OptixPLOT, #6 PLAY TWENTY should have a pace advantage (Quad I) with her early speed. She was able to pick up the win on May 6^th though looked all out (GALLOP-) after a RUSH to the lead finishing in a ride on her left lead/NO_LEAD. She has been given the 29-days since to recover and run back to a competitive race here. The place finisher from the May 6^th race, #4 GHAALEB’S APPEAL also returns here and while she did move into second late after the wire took a strange step, stumbled enough to toss rider Molina hard to the ground though was able to stay on her feet.

As far as the Plot, #3 COOKIN ROSES should be looking to get first run on Play Twenty, and with the rider chance could see her more assertively ridden here as they were passive to rate off the pace in the May 18^th event. She also wore front wraps for that race, a change from previous starts and something to look for today out on the track. Quinonez will also return with #2 WATCHIN THE WHEELS where visually she needed to show more in the May 18^th race and another to monitor as far as the front wraps where a removal could suggest intent and upgrade. #5 C V THUNDER ships in from Belterra Park and rated off the pace (TACTIC-) on May 19^th and needs a more aggressive ride for her best and one that could add pace pressure to Play Twenty.

#1 RANK AND FILE also returns from the May 18^th common race as well as the quick turnaround from May 28^th. She still has interest in running though can be a bit sour with the poor GATE behavior and negative reaction to the whip, though with the right trip can show more than the recent running lines and finishing position in this race – an upgrade on the Plot.  

#1 ROGER MCQUEEN figures logical in the role as the favorite. He was reclaimed by Rivelli and back in for a $12.5k tag, a move that is not concerning in this case just looking to place him where he can compete. As far as trip, he has enough tactical speed from the rail, though also capable of tracking off the Quad I runner, #4 TIMEHASCOME, #5 LUCKY SHOT and #6 ALPINE GHOST if needed.

That “Fire” Contention, brings #2 MISTER CHARMING into the mix late looking to pick up horses late upgraded to a Square on Surface/Distance. 

Rivelli is in position for back-to-back wins (and at expected shorter prices) with #4 ACT A FOOL. The intention has been documented for this spot and scratching from a higher Optional Claiming event on May 6^th (Derby day) and form a turf allowance here on May 28^th. Looking at the Plot, he has a clear early pace advantage as a Quad I Square.

#2 ICE BLAST has recorded some of the higher speed figures in this field and finds class relief returning here to the main track. That change should move him up in this spot though Mason has been colder here this season with horses that fit logically in their races and the barn still looking for their first (at the time of this analysis) win. 

The layoff is in play for both Chris Block trained runners, #7 POWER THROUGH and #2 SIMPLE LOGIC coming back in this allowance. Looking to separate, a slight class edge sides with Simple Logic of the pair and could be slightly higher of the two on the board.

#5 DANCE SOME MO shows up to make his first start on this circuit and should move up on the class change and circuit switch alone. His biggest challenge is often himself and the documented layoff lines. The first start for Rosin here suggests intent along with the strong blowout move on May 18^th. #4 GLOBAL EMPIRE was intended for the turf starting out his career though has had just limited opportunities over the grass. The lone turf effort in his second career start is tough to hold against him going back to March of 2021 and is worth another chance on the grass and holding his form this season could see himself in the mix.  

#6 TIME HEIST returns from the 56-day freshening and barn change to run protected in this starter allowance for trainer Jim Watkins. His early speed is respected in today’s race shape for the right trip forwardly placed – Quad I Square especially for today’s shorter 5.5f distance. The distance could be the prime hurdle for #3 TRY TRY AGAIN on that has form at the starter allowance condition as well as a major class edge over the others returning from the higher level Optional Claiming races from April and May. 

#4 EGOMANIAC is long overdue for a win going back to October 2021 for that most recent score. That win did come over this course and similar route distance when in for the $6250k tag, the N2L condition. With that said, he did come as close to the win as possible last October finishing in a photo at today’s distance and class– the B OptixGRADE indicating a “winning” effort for the level.  He projects to move forward in today’s race shape with the “Fire” Contention and following a TRAFFIC trip here on May 18^th.

#6 SPEEDY G must improve though can be upgraded at the projected number based on his Plot position. #1 AWESOME WILLY finds himself in a similar Plot position in Quad I though has some concerns at the shorter price stepping up in class and returning from the May 11^th win when drifting (NO_LINE) out late with just enough to hold on at the wire.

#3 FLASHY RICHIE has some buried form that fits at this level returning to a top effort. While he has not had any strong excuses at the level in his races this season, his RunStyle has been against the profile and race shape and could find the right dynamic here. Value is required though should be there given the complexion of this field. 

#7 PRADA’S MIRACLE was overmatched in the Special Weight races here last season and finds herself back on the TURF in this third start off the layoff, which began the year with an EX – EXCUSE and BTL effort back on April 2^nd. She has the potential to improve and compete in this spot though overall does not hold much of an edge over her rivals and the connections alone should have the number short on the board and open up the race to get creative.

#5 BEE A WINNER was intended for the turf going back to races in 2020 that do not show up on the paper past performances as she was scratched from those events taken off the turf. She made her belated debut last summer at Fan Duel and improved with races and even the shift to the turf and added ground here in October. While the 8^th place finish might not look like much on paper that number stands out from her dirt figures. Some intent could be in play as she makes her second start off the layoff, the shift to this circuit and coming off a sneaky CLOSE in that May 16^th sprint.

The surface switch should also benefit #9 LOTTA ROSES, one that has “lotta” experience though some of the higher numbers of the group on her best day that is tougher to ignore. #3 TWICK OR TWEAT has not run as fast though has moved up with each start and experience and the connections show some confidence with the slight step up in class and tested today for surface and stamina.