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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun June 4th, 2023

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Northern Alliance - 5-1 5 Embarrassing - 3-1 3 Command Point - 7-2

A really tough race to open the day because there is barely any pace. Hoping 7-NORTHERN ALLIANCE can rate close as she has tons of turf races under her and likely needed her last. She should improve in here on the drop. 5-EMBARRASSING has a lot of back class. The one thing working against her is running style as she tends to sit well back early and make one run late. 3-COMMAND POINT is another that has had turf success. It was a good effort in her last and the added distance should help.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Ghaaleb's Appeal - 10-1 6 Play Twenty - 7-5 3 Cookin Roses - 7-2

All comes down to the early pace battle here as there's a chance 3-COOKIN ROSES and 6-PLAY TWENTY burn each other out early. If one goes and the other rates, they could also run 1-2 the entire way. I'm hoping they battle, setting things up for longshot 4-GHAALEB'S APPEAL. She came off the layoff to run a good race last out, finishing second to Play Twenty in that spot. Mojica in the saddle today as she may be overlooked at the windows.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Alpine Ghost - 7-2 1 Roger McQueen - 9-5 5 Lucky Shot - 9-2

Figures to be an honest pace which could set things up for some to run on late. Maybe 6-ALPINE GHOST pulls off the upset as he comes back from Fairmount off a good second last out. He likes this track and runs for a barn that is having a great meet. 1-ROGER MCQUEEN has been popular in the claim box of late. He's back with Rivelli and will also look to rate and rally in here. 5-LUCKY SHOT was a good winner last out. He shouldn't be too far back early but also shouldn't be pushing the pace early either.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Act a Fool - 7-5 2 Ice Blast - 3-1 5 Family Tradition - 9-2

While I'm picking 4-ACT A FOOL in here, I think the horse wins but I don't think it will be as easy as the short odds he will likely go off at. He likes this track, likes the distance and has been great in two starts on the meet. The pace advantage helps but he is also the only 3yo in the race. 2-ICE BLAST has a big shot to upset. His last on grass was against a good bunch and his routes at Oaklawn were solid. He does have tactical speed which could put him closest to Act a Fool early. 5-FAMILY TRADITION was a good winner while sprinting last out. We will see how he handles the distance stretch but maybe he shows some speed as well.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Loring Park - 5-1 7 Power Through - 2-1 2 Simple Logic - 7-2

Curious to see the pace in this race. 7-POWER THROUGH figures to make the top, but I don't know what to make of 5-DANCE SOME MO as he comes in from Santa Anita and shows speed in a Grade 1 on the grass last May. Maybe the pace is too quick and 6-LORING PARK gets the right trip. He likes this course, likes the distance, and today may get the perfect pace setup ahead of him. First start back for a barn that has had a very good meet. If loose, 7-POWER THROUGH may be gone. His last two starts last year were solid and he is working well toward the return. 2-SIMPLE LOGIC may be a sleeper in here. He posted a good Allowance win here last fall but has been away for 8 months. Wonder if he needs a race?

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Barefootbootlegger - 5-1 1 Shackleford Strong - 7-2 3 Try Try Again - 3-1

Anyone can win this race. No horse is committed to the lead and nobody should be too far back either. Based off recent form, 4-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER seems to be sitting on another good race. He won at this distance last out and seems to be a different racehorse since he has moved back to sprinting. I expect he sneaks off at a good price too. 1-SHACKLEFORD STRONG has the best chance of any to make the lead in here. The rail helps, he has two wins on the meet, and can't be dismissed. 3-TRY TRY AGAIN ran a huge race in victory at this level on April 23. He tried a really tough Allowance last out and held his own despite a troubled trip. This barn has had a solid meet but there may not be the value we normally get from them in here.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:12 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Egomaniac - 4-1 3 Flashy Richie - 6-1 9 Blooming Garden - 6-1

Willing to give 4-EEGOMANIAC another try as I really liked him last time out but hated the trip he got. There should be ample pace to chase in here as he figures to benefit from having a race over the track. The scary thing though is 2/40 lifetime in the win column so you will need a bit of a price to play on top. 3-FLASHY RICHIE is equally as scary at 2/35 for wins but also will get a great pace setup early. He has run well in his last couple and should be flying in the lane. 9-BLOOMING GARDEN has really run well in his last two, showing some versatility with being able to rate. If he can settle early, he should get first run on the closers once again.