Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 GHAALEB’S DREAMS returns to make a second start off the layoff from a TROUBLE trip in the May 18^th return. She broke slow and from the rail checked before making a late/CLOSE run and should be noted with today’s Plot position and shape impacted by the trip. The excessive layoff lines create a different overall concern and reason to have reservations and look for a backup plan.

OptixPLOT could present an advantage for #1 KITTEN ROCKS and #4 CAIRO SUMMER forwardly placed as Quad I/III runners. The Surface/Distance Contention could be just what #6 WEEKEND PASS requires to work a trip from off the pace/Quad IV Square. Her stablemate #5 HARD LIKE HOLLY also projects a move forward with the start on May 25^th and the added (STRETCH) ground. 

#4 LOVEYOULIKECRAZY showed she can run a bit given the effort from last year. The connections perhaps tried to sneak one by as she was a NO_PUSH on debut at HS Indy and was live and bet down in her second start and Hawthorne debut on September 23^rd. She had the challenges that day (and her following start) racing against open company and later in the season in stakes company. Those effort give her an edge over the others with experience in this field though will give a mention to #5 THAT’S A BIRD from her efforts showing run (B- OptixGRADE/improving OptixFIG) in her races out at Fan Duel.

The biggest threat should come from the “new faces” in the first time starters: #3 MADELYN BELLE appears well meant on this circuit and statebred level for trained/bred/owned Catalano and sure to find the support of the public in this race. #6 TOUR DE’PORT has some gaps in the published work tab though enough foundation that could have her live on debut for Quinonez and could fly under the radar in this spot and worth keeping an eye on the board. 

The class edge in this compact field sides with both #3 WEST WARPATH and #6 SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY returning to this level and from a STRONG allowance event back on May 18^th. As far as the race shape, SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY could find the preferred trip stalking as a strong Quad II Square and the only runner above the ParLine. WEST WARPATH has some tactical speed and is likely to look for a first run on that prime rival. 

#7 BRUCE BANNER stands out on the Plot and taking a deeper dive in his running lines, that position and shape fits in this race. He has some buried turf form that hiding just off the page on the printed past performances that makes him a fit in this race. He improved with his first turf start back on April of 2022 at Tampa and was intended for turf running here at Hawthorne last May. His form since has held up and should benefit from the recent starts, the surface switch and added ground for this event.

The main contender group returns from the May 18^th common race and “logical” types starting with #8 KINGSBURRY ATTACK recording a B- OptixFIG with adversity with TRAFFIC and making a WIDE MOVE in addition to another solid Plot position here; #10 STRIKE PRICE had form back at Turfway this year and struggled on the main track though moved up on the turf in a TROUBLE trip place finish. Perhaps the most overlooked of the group #5 STORM’S REFLECTION despite the 5^th place finish also recorded a B- OptixGRADE and did so with legit TROUBLE+ and lacking room playing a role in the outcome. 

With #5 DELIGHTFUL BREEZE in the field, #4 PLUS CHIC does not project to hold as much of an edge in this race looking at OptixPLOT as one that could be favored. Plus Chic has some solid published work times coming back from the layoff though is still Large Quad I Circle with the time off and the “Fire” Contention to overcome.

Rosin will send out a pair in this race: #7 OFF RAMP should benefit from the “Fire” as a Quad II/IV Square and comes into this race in current form from the Oaklawn Park meet. Her stablemate #3 SOMEONE SAID SO will make her belated return today and was last seen in November at HS Indy finishing in front of stablemate Off Ramp that day. SOMEONE SAID SO has back class and figures that stand out in this field. Her form last year was impacted by “trips” and timing which has impacted Plot position and shape for today’s race. Keeping that in mind and reading through the lines she showed enough to compete on this circuit, level and with today’s group if back to top form. There are some gaps in the published works coming back for 2023 as well as a vet scratch from similar conditions, surface/distance here last December.

Tough to knock the efforts from both #4 PACIFIC VIEW and #6 BLAZE BEAUTY returning from the May 21^st common race back in this spot. With that said, these two lack early speed and just like the event 17-days ago that could open up an opportunity for a runner with early speed to take the pace advantage.

Looking at the runners with experience, none have shown an E or EP RunStyle when sprinting (#3 JOYZELLA has around two turns and could try that tactic here) and that controlling speed could be in the hands of the first time starters. #5 FLYING COMET could be that horse with some consistent works for Perez including a “bullet” from the gate on May 31^st and picking a live rider for this outfit with Olaf Hernandez aboard. 

#1 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY was favored at this level back on November 27^th and not only was he running on the dirt (presents TURF visuals) he was compromised by the SLOG and ride/TACTIC- impacting him on the day with a subtle trip. They should rebound in this spot back on the grass though a shorter price once again would not be any surprise.

Trainer Chris Block will also send out first time starter #5 HANDSOFFTHEGOODS for Lothenbach, an owner group that will also be represented by #12 MO TIME AT ALL upgraded in this spot with the class drop and right move for this six-year-old horse. He is part of the group finding the class change from the Special Weight event on May 18^th. #4 AQUACAT figures the most “obvious” from that group on numbers as well as holding a competitive, B- OptixGRADE here at this level, surface/distance with a WIDE trip last September. #6 ICE VORTEX is not as accomplished though finds the right changes (DROP) in his second start back off the layoff and upside all around.

Manley will send out a pair with #10 MISSOURI GENT returning to this circuit and turf where he ran last June showing early speed in a Very Fast pace at the Special Weight level before losing ground. Overall improvement is required and with numbers softer than his stablemate - #3 LAWMAKER one that should move up to compete on the drop though still requires a top effort and might even need to be “best” in this field as he has shown some distance limitations in the past.

#8 ANCIENT MAN is another double-digit type of runner worth keeping on the radar. While the surface is unknown, the class DROP appears the right move and earned a follow making a MOVE against the track (X_BIAS) back on April 13^th and recorded figure that stacks right up on par. The class change is the opposite direction stepping up for #11 NOBLE CREEKER at the same time he is back at his preferred ROUTER distance and similar for surface keying off his turf juvenile form and figures which standout over his dirt form. With those races recorded as a juvenile a move forward could be projected that would have them right on par with the others in this field to surprise as a longshot in this race. 

The gate/SLOG issues have created adversity for #1 BLACK RUSSIAN going back to the EX – EXCUSE on April 30^th and detached from the May 25^th group though showed late interest and GALLOP+ after the result. The SpeedRate could be on his side today and does require a trip and pace (and value) to run at.

As far as the early pace #9 LAMELO should present upside in his second start back off the layoff and offer value over former stablemate #4 STAN THE CAMERAMAN and rival #3 UNCAPTURED DREAM as the Quad I Square flight. #2 FLYING CRICKET is not shown in Quad I today though is in proximity and with the class DROP and positive rider change projects to be more forwardly placed here.

#5 PROCHARGER was logical here on May 21^st with the circuit switch and class drop. Overall he did improve both in terms of OptixFIG/GRADE and with the COLD Mason barn still looking to get on track here this season. #6 ONE ACE also returns from that event and can project upside taking KICKBACK from an inner post position and the shift to the middle could assist him though is one that does appear to need forward position or run outside horses, ideally.