Handicapper Tips & Picks

Coming back from the 186-day layoff this could be her #3 MOMENT TO SHINE. She debuted back in November at Churchill Downs turning in a BTL effort despite legit TROUBLE+ in running. Rivelli had her scheduled to run here at Hawthorne on the main track cross-entered and ultimately landing in the December 7^th Turfway Park event where did not appear to handle the surface. She will find a third surface in as many starts though overall ability could see her take to and prevail in this race. Her stablemate #5 SWEET LITTLE LISA will make her belated debut here. She worked a quick 21.2 last June at OBS and off those breeze visuals should handle today’s surface and distance. The barn is more than capable with first time starters and getting them ready though this filly does show some gaps in the published works to note.

The edge on form and recency is noted for #4 DESIRED LEGACY as she shows up on this circuit and shift to open company from the statebred restricted Special Weight events at HS Indy. She has the turf foundation and subtle flow upgrade from the May 18^th race as she ran WIDE up close to a Very Fast early pace before packing it in. Stablemate #2 GO ON GIRL has the local experience and turf start when setting the pace against maiden claiming company on May 25^th staying on as BOS/Best of the Speed though still was a NO_FINISH. 

#1 BALI BABY could land in this spot noting she is cross entered in a turf race on the Thursday program. The final placement by Quinonez making her first start for this barn could suggest intent. She has some buried form and figures that stack up on par and looking to get back to top form for the first time in 2023 would have her competitive in this group. The bullet work back on May 18^th could be a sign she is doing well with the change in locale.

Rival #2 LITTLE BELLA also returns with a pattern of published bullet works, though is returning from a very long, 968-day layoff to make a seven-year-old start. The combination of time off, bullets and with jockey Simpson making the trip from their FanDuel base to ride here could suggest intent as her form prior to the layoff easily fits here. The barn will also start #4 NIFF one that has seem her form decline since returning from the layoff here in March, though going back to that race where she showed early speed, a contentious early pace (or pace all around) should assist the RunStyle for Little Bella.

 In terms of the early pace, #3 SWEET FRAULINE again projects to be on the lead, though she was able to establish the LONE lead back on May 25^th and still came up short in the end. #5 RUNNERS HEAT showed early speed last year and could find herself more forwardly placed today as the connections make the class change and drop that should move her up naturally this afternoon. 

Granitz can often show up with horses like #3 TIMELESS GLORY here at Hawthorne with intent. She will return from the 46-day freshening from the Tampa season and returning to a route and similar  claiming conditions that had her competitive back in Jan/Feb. Those effort in terms of speed figures, class and RunStyle stack up strongly at this level and with today’s field/race shape.

The class drop is logical for #4 TIME BREAK as she has competitive form under similar claiming conditions, though the big test is distance as this will be her first start around two-turns in a 27-race career. Stablemate #5 ON A TOUR is established around two turns and proven at this level. Her tendency to break slowly and run from off the pace could be part of the reason TIME BREAK is entered here to ensure the honest early pace. The distance change is also noted for #6 BERTRADA though the intention to run at the route was in play starting off her career back in 2020 and spent the majority of her juvenile/sophomore season around two turns before the cut back to a sprint where she has been running for most of the time since. 

This could be the most competitive race on the card where some appear more obvious than others (both #2 ARCH FLYER and #5 AUNT STELLA up in class could be a reach) though no real result would be a surprise. In terms of pace, #7 FIRST KITTEN should take up the controlling speed role once again and has prevailed with that tactic and consistency for Meraz as this barn has really been able to figure her out, five of her six lifetime wins for this outfit and each start on the dirt has resulted in the money finish.

Looking at OptixPLOT, #8 RACEDAY ATTIRE looks to pick up the chase behind FIRST KITTEN and looking for that first run or for that rival to back up late. She fell into that trip back on April 2^nd though has been able to push the pace, duel and run her race with that tactical change as well to compete.

Should those two “duel” early the Plot suggests the trip for #4 SEAWARD and #6 LONG TALL WOMAN, though looking at their current form cycle pattern in OptixNOTES, SEAWARD returns from a top effort on a quick 11-day turnaround, and LONG TALL WOMAN shows OptixFIG decline in the Past 3 Runlines. #1 SAMARITA does not look as strong visually as a Circle, though there is consideration for that position off the “trips” this year including the TROUBLE on May 31^st as well as poor rider TACTIC- that has her returning with a rider change today – the intent should have her sitting on a top effort and could fly under the radar as well. #3 WAY TOO SMARTE also carries some buried form and lacked intent (NO_PUSH, PREP) in the Third Chance stakes to move forward from that race just three weeks ago. 

The Contention (Sun) combined with the honest 49 SpeedRate will require finishing ability and even stalking RunStyle. #5 APRIL’S GEM fits those parameters and remaining on the TURF projecting improvement from the TROUBLE trip here in the May 25^th common race. #10 RARE ACTION ATTACK also returns from that event and finds a much better scenario for her RunStyle, (Quad IV Square) compared to the Snowflake/30 SpeedRate last month and the extra half-furlong in her favor.

#4 GO STORMIN GIRL is shown as a Circle with the EP RunStyle designation in OptixRPM, though has been able to show more dimensions on the turf going back in her past performances to prior seasons with those races making her a fit in here and one to keep on the radar at a price. A similar creative case could be made for #8 RANK AND FILE a runner when isolating her 5.5f turf form, those races stand out and stack up for today’s conditions. 

#8 TAHOE RUN did not have an excuse trip wise on May 28^th just met a rival that was better on the day. He fits right back in with today’s group and with the class edge still holding from the Special Weight races here last fall and the higher events from Oaklawn Park.

As far as the second time starters: #1 EASY FAST was favored on debut and broke slow, something to keep in mind here with the rail, before moving up to contest the pace and backing (FTQ) up. #6 WILDWOOD MINISTRY looked like the winner making a strong MOVE after a slow start, though just lacked the ability to remain in front of their rivals with those top two together at the wire. #3 LARRY THE POET also broke slow on debut and was able to save ground from the rail, though did not appear comfortable with that trip and should benefit from the change though overall must step up facing Tahoe Run again today.

Perez will sent out a pair of debut runners in #4 BLACK RAVEN and #5 AMBER EDGE both with similar works and timing for Glockenburg and it will be key following the board and visuals pre-race as often that can be a tell especially for this barn. #7 GRANDDADDYLONGLEGS will make a belated debut as a four-year-old Indiana-bred and with gaps In the works coming into this race makes him a tough read first out. 

A strong, competitive allowance with some quality runners, connections and riders all appear well-intended for this race. In terms of the race as a whole, the early pace should be contentious (Fire) and honest with the 50 SpeedRate. That could make things tougher on #1 GOLDEN HORNET and #5 CAN MAN DO as Large Circles in Quad I, with upgrades given to #6 TAPE TO TAPE and #7 OMAHA RED based on their position and shape.

#4 WENT WEST is arguably the class and the fastest horse in this race with his Plot position favorable (Large Square) in today’s race shape. The challenge is the ever present layoff lines that have been a hurdle throughout his career for all involved. With that said, the layoff is nothing new and because of their consistent pattern the intention of a “prep” is not a given with this individual and likely will show up race ready for a top effort.

#2 W W SCOUT’S HONOR wheels right back from a WIDE trip and overall game effort together at the wire with his pacesetting stablemate winner, Fast Jack, two weeks ago. His form fits at this condition though must return today with another top effort given the complexion of this field and stepping back up into open company. #3 HUEY ATTACK will also return here to take on open from the May 28^th common race. Overall he must step up and could still be a race out, though did make a positive PRERACE+ appearance and one that could be in the mix even if the win is a reach today.

#8 NAVY SEAL will reset his form cycle exiting the Oaklawn Park meet where he was pointed to as a Arkansas-bred and peak earlier this year. Navy Seal has run well here at Hawthorne in the past, though both of his wins were recorded against softer company than what he faces today. 

#2 DIAMOND DAVE returns to Hawthorne and the turf with buried form from his races this season and the turf races from last year. One of those events, June 11^th, nearly one year to the date, recorded a sneaky strong B- OptixGRADE and 87 OptixFIG in the 5^th place result. He was in for the $20k claiming tag that day and appears with intent to use the drop to win here.  

#6 BAKENEKO earned a follow off the trip and effort on May 21^st returning under similar conditions here. His “trip” began in the GATE fractious prior to the start and impacting his break (TROUBLE_S) with the rider struggling (TACTIC-) to work a trip and lacked ROOM impacting the outcome. #7 IOYA AGAIN also impacted out of the gate (TROUBLE_S) putting in a CLOSE for 4^th from off the pace and fits at this level though should be shorter of the two both earning the B- OptixGRADE.

A similar B- OptixGRADE was earned by #1 DYNABLUE the show finisher. As projected, he moved up with the shift back to TURF though did have adversity with the TROUBLE playing a role in the show finish. His form fits right back in at this level and today’s group with clean and favorable trip still required to win.

#11 BIG BLUE was entered though unable to draw into the May 21^st common race. The intention is clear for this type of event and his form and RunStyle fit as a player at this level. Trip will be key from the outside and that same consideration carries to #12 MALIGATOR as he projects to improve (PREP) with the start under his belt.

Ten-year-old #3 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE projects to improve with the added (STRETCH) ground as he return in this spot. That change should also see him closer to the pace today and another that requires a top effort overall. Similar can be said for #4 EVERLOVINGHAND one that has overall upside and Turf visuals as he returns to the grass for the first time since early 2022. 

Two Rivelli runners in here so have to figure if both run or not. I expect they do, as I'll to to 3-MOMENT TO SHINE on top. She has a couple of races under her belt, running well on debut at Churchill. Appears she may have bled on the poly at Turfway and returns here with the addition of Lasix. 7-WILDWOOD ENOUGH debuts with Lasix as she has worked well leading to this spot. She's taken a bit longer to get to the races though as she is a 4yo but the Fairmount drills are all solid. 5-SWEET LITTLE LISA is an excellent name for a racehorse. She also debuts with Lasix and has some snappy gate drills that suggest early speed.

The speed and recent starts benefit 3-SWEET FRAULEIN as she should be able to clear the time and possibly never look back. She ran a solid race on the class rise last out and likely won't have to work too hard to make the top. 1-BALI BABY is in from Gulfstream as she could find things easier here. She has some back class but has run a pair of poor recent races. The question is if she can turn things around with the venue change. What to do with 2-LITTLE BELLA? You look at her races on paper and she's a complete standout. The issue is those races were in 2020! Long, long long layoff, but consistent works. Guess we find out what we have today.

Competitive bunch here as you can look a few different ways. 3-TIMELESS GLORY likely hasn't been able to find the right spot in Indiana so she comes our way as she figures to rate in the second flight early and run on in the lane. Just one easy drill since the layoff but the race could set up perfectly for her. 6-BERTRADA was a good winner while sprinting last out. She will be flattered if Sweet Fraulein wins the 2nd as they come out of the like race last out. She stretch in distance is the only concern but she likes this surface and figures to be a part of the early pace. If contested upfront, 5-ON A TOUR could be the beneficiary. She comes in off the claim for this spot as she won her last at the distance. She likes this track and just needs enough pace to chase.

Can't fault 4-SEAWARD for heading to Belterra for a few starts as she won two of three and now returns. She ran well here in her start four back as she was overlooked at the windows but I expect she takes more action today. 6-LONG TALL WOMAN loves this track as she has finished ITM in 18 of 19 Hawthorne starts. She has some run last last out but hasn't been quite as sharp as she was here last fall. 7-FIRST KITTEN has speed but may have company as well. She was a good winner two back but just ran evenly in the lane when she didn't make the top last out.

Potential for a crazy fast pace in here as 4-5 for head for the top. 10-RARE ACTION ATTACK may get the perfect setup as she draws out but gets an added 16th today. Expect her to settle in early and look to rally in the stretch. 5-APRIL'S GEM ran well last out as well, closing some ground late. She also should benefit from the pace to chase as she should rate closer early than Rare Action Attack likely will. 6-STACY ATTACK may need to avoid being a part of a pace battle as her best chances could come if she races from just off the pace. She has a pair of wins at the distance as she runs for a barn that has had a huge meet.

He's had so many opportunities but today has to be the day for 8-TAHOE RUN. He just missed in his last couple and has five runner-up performances. Look for some early speed from him once again. 3-LARRY THE POET chased last out but just ran evenly in the lane. He's going to take action as well but was four lengths behind Tahoe Run when the field crossed the wire last out. 1-EASY FAST is another with speed who held his own last time out. He took action in the spot as he was favored and a little bit of early traffic trouble may have compromised him slightly.

A really good field here as you can't go wrong with any of these runners. 1-GOLDEN HORNET could be the fastest to the front as he ran a big race last out. With the rail draw, expect to see early speed from him. He could have company from 2-W W SCOUT'S HONOR if that one chooses to go. I think he's going to rate though as he settled nicely last out and almost got up in time for the victory. 4-WENT WEST can't be dismissed at a price. He has been away since last October, but Roussel always has his horses ready and this barn popped with a nice winner on the grass earlier in the meet.

It wasn't a bad effort from 12-MALIGATOR last out but I really think this one will be a great fit for Centeno. There's some early pace in here as Maligator figures to settle early and rally in the lane. Look for an improved effort in his second start of the meet. 7-IOYA AGAIN is proven on the grass as he also figures to rally in the lane. He closed too late last out but is another likely to benefit from a swift early pace. 3-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE has some tactical speed as he should sit closer early. He stretches out following the sprint try in his last and figures to be a factor in the stretch.

No guarantees that this race will be on the lawn since we are supposed to get considerable rain overnight and only one in here has off-track experience but we’ll see. Think the pair of Rivelli-trained runners will grab the most attention and probably deserve it. 3-MOMENT TO SHINE ran well in her debut at Churchill in November and finished third in that tough maiden event. However, she shipped to Turfway after that and finished up the track as the odds-on favorite. Did she not handle the synthetic surface or was it something else? Anyway, she’s back with useful if not quick drills and she’ll be running with Lasix for the first time. 5-SWEET LITTLE LISA, the other Rivelli runner, boasts much quicker drills. She’s making her debut. Wouldn’t be surprised if it was a winning one. 2-GO ON GIRL is worth consideration. She’s jumping in class but she does have turf experience and, maybe more importantly, she flies from the gate. We’ve had quite a few “unexpected” winners in these turf sprints who get away unchallenged and can’t be caught. 6-ANGEL EXPRESS might also be capable of surprising. Her career debut was in a turf sprint here in the fall. She displayed good speed but faded late. Like her recent drills.

3-SWEET FRAULEIN has to be caught. She easily wired the field in her first start after getting claimed but was able to grab an easy lead and still couldn’t hang on. However, she does look like the only speed. Might last. Would probably make 2-LITTLE BELLA my top pick but she hasn’t raced since 2020 and seven of her career 10 starts were on turf. On the other hand, she’s been training well and her barn is having a terrific meet. 1-BALI BABY ships from a tougher circuit. She beat only a total of three rivals from her three races this year but might awaken in her local debut. 

This seems like a pretty evenly-matched contest. I’m not in love with 5-ON A TOUR but she does make the most sense. She was claimed from last, a winning effort, and returns at the same level. Her barn also entered a “rabbit” in this race that should ensure a fast pace for this mare. She loves this track and there is plenty of speed to set up for her late run. Like the way 6-BERTRADA comes into this race. She has improved with every local start and simply dominated in last. Don’t think she’s outclassed at this level but she’s stretching out and might get caught up in a speed duel. Don’t think the connections of 3-TIMELESS GLORY would bother to ship this mare in if they didn’t think she had a legitimate chance. It helps that she’s dropping to get lowest level ever. 

Most of the fillies and mares in this race face each other often and take turns visiting the winner’s circle. But 4-SEAWARD might hold the edge. She won three of her last four races. Only one of those victories came here but she has basically been in good form all year. Good tactical speed allows her to run well on or off the pace. 6-LONG TALL WOMAN, as usual, is the one to beat. She finished second in her last three races versus similar after winning her previous three. 7-FIRST KITTEN is another in great form. She finished in the money in seven of her eight starts this year, winning three times. She looks like the best of the speed and is always a threat to wire the field. 

Another race that may or may not be contested on the lawn. However, few in here are really turf runners so it might not matter. I’ll go with 11-LUCY'S LOOKIN LEFT just in case. She’s entered for main track only. She’s been facing better recently with some success. Has been good here in the past. Adds blinkers for this race. But especially like that she’s a closer in a race filled with front runners. 3-GOOD MONGOLIA finished up the track in last but she did win her previous two starts. She hasn’t shown good turf form lately but she has been among the best of turf and she has been good on off tracks. 6-STACY ATTACK never won on turf but she just finished second at this level on the lawn and she won her previous race here on dirt. 

Mighty tough race. Going to go with 1-GOLDEN HORNET, however. Think he’s the speediest of the speed. He wired the field in last. If he can get the jump on the rest of the speed in here, he can do it again. 7-OMAHA RED can get the trip. He’s another coming off a local win. He has had seven races here, winning three times and finishing second another three. Will be racing right behind the speed. 4-WENT WEST doesn’t always fire but when he does, he’s as tough as the come. Seems to have more versatility than most in here and is capable on or off the pace.  

1-DYNABLUE could be the one on or off the lawn. He finished third at this level in his most recent race on turf but he has faced tougher for most of his career. He’s not a strong choice by any means but he could be best in this wide open race. 7-IOYA AGAIN is another that has been successful on turf. He won’t be anywhere close in the early going but he might just wave as he flies by in the stretch. 10-ANDTHETHUNDERROLLS has been racing over his head since early last fall. Finally drops. Should be a major player on or off the turf.