Handicapper Tips & Picks

Coming back from the 186-day layoff this could be her #3 MOMENT TO SHINE. She debuted back in November at Churchill Downs turning in a BTL effort despite legit TROUBLE+ in running. Rivelli had her scheduled to run here at Hawthorne on the main track cross-entered and ultimately landing in the December 7^th Turfway Park event where did not appear to handle the surface. She will find a third surface in as many starts though overall ability could see her take to and prevail in this race. Her stablemate #5 SWEET LITTLE LISA will make her belated debut here. She worked a quick 21.2 last June at OBS and off those breeze visuals should handle today’s surface and distance. The barn is more than capable with first time starters and getting them ready though this filly does show some gaps in the published works to note.

The edge on form and recency is noted for #4 DESIRED LEGACY as she shows up on this circuit and shift to open company from the statebred restricted Special Weight events at HS Indy. She has the turf foundation and subtle flow upgrade from the May 18^th race as she ran WIDE up close to a Very Fast early pace before packing it in. Stablemate #2 GO ON GIRL has the local experience and turf start when setting the pace against maiden claiming company on May 25^th staying on as BOS/Best of the Speed though still was a NO_FINISH. 

#1 BALI BABY could land in this spot noting she is cross entered in a turf race on the Thursday program. The final placement by Quinonez making her first start for this barn could suggest intent. She has some buried form and figures that stack up on par and looking to get back to top form for the first time in 2023 would have her competitive in this group. The bullet work back on May 18^th could be a sign she is doing well with the change in locale.

Rival #2 LITTLE BELLA also returns with a pattern of published bullet works, though is returning from a very long, 968-day layoff to make a seven-year-old start. The combination of time off, bullets and with jockey Simpson making the trip from their FanDuel base to ride here could suggest intent as her form prior to the layoff easily fits here. The barn will also start #4 NIFF one that has seem her form decline since returning from the layoff here in March, though going back to that race where she showed early speed, a contentious early pace (or pace all around) should assist the RunStyle for Little Bella.

 In terms of the early pace, #3 SWEET FRAULINE again projects to be on the lead, though she was able to establish the LONE lead back on May 25^th and still came up short in the end. #5 RUNNERS HEAT showed early speed last year and could find herself more forwardly placed today as the connections make the class change and drop that should move her up naturally this afternoon. 

Granitz can often show up with horses like #3 TIMELESS GLORY here at Hawthorne with intent. She will return from the 46-day freshening from the Tampa season and returning to a route and similar  claiming conditions that had her competitive back in Jan/Feb. Those effort in terms of speed figures, class and RunStyle stack up strongly at this level and with today’s field/race shape.

The class drop is logical for #4 TIME BREAK as she has competitive form under similar claiming conditions, though the big test is distance as this will be her first start around two-turns in a 27-race career. Stablemate #5 ON A TOUR is established around two turns and proven at this level. Her tendency to break slowly and run from off the pace could be part of the reason TIME BREAK is entered here to ensure the honest early pace. The distance change is also noted for #6 BERTRADA though the intention to run at the route was in play starting off her career back in 2020 and spent the majority of her juvenile/sophomore season around two turns before the cut back to a sprint where she has been running for most of the time since. 

This could be the most competitive race on the card where some appear more obvious than others (both #2 ARCH FLYER and #5 AUNT STELLA up in class could be a reach) though no real result would be a surprise. In terms of pace, #7 FIRST KITTEN should take up the controlling speed role once again and has prevailed with that tactic and consistency for Meraz as this barn has really been able to figure her out, five of her six lifetime wins for this outfit and each start on the dirt has resulted in the money finish.

Looking at OptixPLOT, #8 RACEDAY ATTIRE looks to pick up the chase behind FIRST KITTEN and looking for that first run or for that rival to back up late. She fell into that trip back on April 2^nd though has been able to push the pace, duel and run her race with that tactical change as well to compete.

Should those two “duel” early the Plot suggests the trip for #4 SEAWARD and #6 LONG TALL WOMAN, though looking at their current form cycle pattern in OptixNOTES, SEAWARD returns from a top effort on a quick 11-day turnaround, and LONG TALL WOMAN shows OptixFIG decline in the Past 3 Runlines. #1 SAMARITA does not look as strong visually as a Circle, though there is consideration for that position off the “trips” this year including the TROUBLE on May 31^st as well as poor rider TACTIC- that has her returning with a rider change today – the intent should have her sitting on a top effort and could fly under the radar as well. #3 WAY TOO SMARTE also carries some buried form and lacked intent (NO_PUSH, PREP) in the Third Chance stakes to move forward from that race just three weeks ago. 

The Contention (Sun) combined with the honest 49 SpeedRate will require finishing ability and even stalking RunStyle. #5 APRIL’S GEM fits those parameters and remaining on the TURF projecting improvement from the TROUBLE trip here in the May 25^th common race. #10 RARE ACTION ATTACK also returns from that event and finds a much better scenario for her RunStyle, (Quad IV Square) compared to the Snowflake/30 SpeedRate last month and the extra half-furlong in her favor.

#4 GO STORMIN GIRL is shown as a Circle with the EP RunStyle designation in OptixRPM, though has been able to show more dimensions on the turf going back in her past performances to prior seasons with those races making her a fit in here and one to keep on the radar at a price. A similar creative case could be made for #8 RANK AND FILE a runner when isolating her 5.5f turf form, those races stand out and stack up for today’s conditions. 

#8 TAHOE RUN did not have an excuse trip wise on May 28^th just met a rival that was better on the day. He fits right back in with today’s group and with the class edge still holding from the Special Weight races here last fall and the higher events from Oaklawn Park.

As far as the second time starters: #1 EASY FAST was favored on debut and broke slow, something to keep in mind here with the rail, before moving up to contest the pace and backing (FTQ) up. #6 WILDWOOD MINISTRY looked like the winner making a strong MOVE after a slow start, though just lacked the ability to remain in front of their rivals with those top two together at the wire. #3 LARRY THE POET also broke slow on debut and was able to save ground from the rail, though did not appear comfortable with that trip and should benefit from the change though overall must step up facing Tahoe Run again today.

Perez will sent out a pair of debut runners in #4 BLACK RAVEN and #5 AMBER EDGE both with similar works and timing for Glockenburg and it will be key following the board and visuals pre-race as often that can be a tell especially for this barn. #7 GRANDDADDYLONGLEGS will make a belated debut as a four-year-old Indiana-bred and with gaps In the works coming into this race makes him a tough read first out. 

A strong, competitive allowance with some quality runners, connections and riders all appear well-intended for this race. In terms of the race as a whole, the early pace should be contentious (Fire) and honest with the 50 SpeedRate. That could make things tougher on #1 GOLDEN HORNET and #5 CAN MAN DO as Large Circles in Quad I, with upgrades given to #6 TAPE TO TAPE and #7 OMAHA RED based on their position and shape.

#4 WENT WEST is arguably the class and the fastest horse in this race with his Plot position favorable (Large Square) in today’s race shape. The challenge is the ever present layoff lines that have been a hurdle throughout his career for all involved. With that said, the layoff is nothing new and because of their consistent pattern the intention of a “prep” is not a given with this individual and likely will show up race ready for a top effort.

#2 W W SCOUT’S HONOR wheels right back from a WIDE trip and overall game effort together at the wire with his pacesetting stablemate winner, Fast Jack, two weeks ago. His form fits at this condition though must return today with another top effort given the complexion of this field and stepping back up into open company. #3 HUEY ATTACK will also return here to take on open from the May 28^th common race. Overall he must step up and could still be a race out, though did make a positive PRERACE+ appearance and one that could be in the mix even if the win is a reach today.

#8 NAVY SEAL will reset his form cycle exiting the Oaklawn Park meet where he was pointed to as a Arkansas-bred and peak earlier this year. Navy Seal has run well here at Hawthorne in the past, though both of his wins were recorded against softer company than what he faces today. 

#2 DIAMOND DAVE returns to Hawthorne and the turf with buried form from his races this season and the turf races from last year. One of those events, June 11^th, nearly one year to the date, recorded a sneaky strong B- OptixGRADE and 87 OptixFIG in the 5^th place result. He was in for the $20k claiming tag that day and appears with intent to use the drop to win here.  

#6 BAKENEKO earned a follow off the trip and effort on May 21^st returning under similar conditions here. His “trip” began in the GATE fractious prior to the start and impacting his break (TROUBLE_S) with the rider struggling (TACTIC-) to work a trip and lacked ROOM impacting the outcome. #7 IOYA AGAIN also impacted out of the gate (TROUBLE_S) putting in a CLOSE for 4^th from off the pace and fits at this level though should be shorter of the two both earning the B- OptixGRADE.

A similar B- OptixGRADE was earned by #1 DYNABLUE the show finisher. As projected, he moved up with the shift back to TURF though did have adversity with the TROUBLE playing a role in the show finish. His form fits right back in at this level and today’s group with clean and favorable trip still required to win.

#11 BIG BLUE was entered though unable to draw into the May 21^st common race. The intention is clear for this type of event and his form and RunStyle fit as a player at this level. Trip will be key from the outside and that same consideration carries to #12 MALIGATOR as he projects to improve (PREP) with the start under his belt.

Ten-year-old #3 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE projects to improve with the added (STRETCH) ground as he return in this spot. That change should also see him closer to the pace today and another that requires a top effort overall. Similar can be said for #4 EVERLOVINGHAND one that has overall upside and Turf visuals as he returns to the grass for the first time since early 2022.