Handicapper Tips & Picks

In pace makes the race, #3 BEHAVIN MYSELF could take pressure from #6 BLURT and with #2 WHERE’D THE DAY GO looking to stalk that pair and take first run. In addition to the trip, WHERE’D THE DAY GO fits at this condition as Rodriguez has been able to reset the form cycle protected on turf and given the 24-days rest coming back into this spot.

The “Fire” Contention is the key for #1 PISTOL BOX with his late (Quad IV Square) run. His current form is upgraded and preferred over the other Quad IV rivals, #4 GAGOOTS and #5 KRAMDEN.

#1 DRAGON DREW can be upgraded from the BOS place finish in today’s scenario and looking to turn the tables on #4 GRAND HIDEWAY, one that was able to benefit from a PERFECT trip. The contention does run deep in this field and even the early contention: #2 FOLLOW THE SIGNS returns to the claiming level and the TURF, a surface he can handle and even move back up on. Eduardo Rodriguez will also be represented by #8 KENNESAW a horse with buried form on the turf (Quad I/II Square) and even could suggest intent with the connections scratching from a race last week to run here instead.

Joel Campbell also sends out a pair leading with #6 EXPROMPT as they return from the lengthy layoff with the significant class drop. That combination always creates some cause for pause when handicapping and comes into play here though as an individual can certainly compete with this group without even requiring one of his “best” races to do so. #3 REMEMEBER THE NAME is tougher to back on the win end as he requires a lot of racing luck with his RunStyle (Quad IV Square) from off the pace in addition to a top effort – two factors others hold an edge on – though should be running on late to include for underneath. 

At first glance, this race looks competitive on paper though taking a deeper look, #6 RACETOTHEFINISH appears to hold an overall edge and seems legit in this spot. She has natural early speed and current form coming back to this circuit and with a subtle class change to return in with statebred company. She could also rebound in her form cycle (every other pattern) recording a strong figure with the place finish back at FanDuel. Stablemate #1 WILDWOOD POSSE is lightly race and a case can be made she is improving, however is lighter than others in this field and would have to improve dramatically, especially if others come back today with their top effort.

#2 WHITE LIES is suited to today’s race shape, though overall form requires a move forward as makes her third start back this season in order to win – though logical type to finish in the money. 

#1 MOVE IT BABY will make her first start on the main track today and that can be a concern when listed (and expected) to be a shorter priced favorite in this race. The advantages she has to offset the surface switch is the ability to show early speed, overall speed figures and the class change as she will find relief from her three prior starts.

The surface switch also comes back into play as Cristel wheels right back the pair for this spot and from the turf allowance last Wednesday. #5 CRYSTAL SNOW was given an upgraded in that race and despite the running line and finishing position, she turned in a BTL effort off the visuals showing run with overall adversity and ground loss from start to finish.  The class relief is to her benefit and while she appears to present on the turf side, her main track races from this season stack up with today’s competition. Stablemate #6 JUDY’S MS. OFFICER while WIDE did not have any other excuses last week, though class wise might not have been at the right level for her abilities and is back in at the N2 claiming level where she had been competitive earning checks this year.

#3 MUD HUT will be class tested here though should appreciate the move back into claiming company. Her allowance effort back on April 20^th is one she can IMPROVE from though still requires the right group and level to run against for that top contender spot. 

#6 CAMPISI will make his local debut and looks placed in the right spot for his abilities in this race. His ability to get out of the gate improved with the addition of blinkers and improved overall this year at Oaklawn Park. He has some tactical speed though does not need the lead and that could be key to his trip looking at the Plot and sharing a position shape with #3 CHAD’S FLASH and pressure from #2 SOVIET STANDARD.

That early contention should assist, #5 TIZWOW as he brings in form at this level, especially keying off the one-turn races. Trip and first run is the key with #7 TEA WITH LEMON in the field. He has a strong closing kick (Large Quad IV Square) compared to others in the field, though does have the tendency to break slow. Perez appears to have him placed accordingly, making just a second start of the cycle and back the $12.5k level, a level that seemed to move him up on May 28^th. 

Roussel returns with six-year-old #5 OVERDUE HONOR back in his second start since the long 615-day layoff. As far as his return on May 20^th at Belterra Park, he did come up short as the favorite, though had to stay  with the surface switch and off track and was part of a fast (X-FLOW) early pace. He has worked since and picking up one of the top local riders in Felix suggests intent.

#8 SIMPSON BAY will make his first start back from the layoff and remaining on the turf for Robertson. The surface is preferred for this horse, though does change things up in distance for this sprint here. The barn will also start #3 FROSTED TEMPTATION here one that has been on the grounds training since the first part of the year and if anything perhaps that is the knock as it has taken a long time to get ready and show up in a race.

Of the first time starters, Perez could be live with either of the Glockenburg pair; #10 PIRATE MARMALADE and #11 ICE CHARD, two that are tougher to separate on paper with similar published works leaving race day to make the decisions taking a look at the horses in the paddock, track and on the board.

The class rise is a test for #9 INDIO GUAPO coming back off the layoff here. At the same time, that time away could see improvement from two-to-three and is encouraging the connections come back in a TURF race, the ideal surface for this horse. 

#8 MIDNIGHT ESCAPE looks to deal with others early on the in race, though could have a subtle edge over that first flight group and offer value based on the morning line and his recent run line and finishing position to get overlooked.  #2 BOCA BOY struggled (NO_HANDLE) over the course here on April 6^th and the rider recognizing by NO_PUSH, not asking for run that day and noted with the run line, finishing position and the turnaround on May 25^th. The race last month is more representative of his abilities and should come back with another honest effort. Value could be shorter than projected coming out of the May 25^th common race, finishing in front of others in this field along with that higher speed figure and place finish race sitting right on top of the past performances.

The race shape, Fire Contention and 56 SpeedRate, should assist runners from off the pace and the Quad IV Square pair. #7 W W CANDY being the more obvious and likely race favorite. He turned in a B OptixGRADE and BTL effort finishing second at this level here back on April 30^th and another good effort given the rough start (SLOG, TROUBLE) making a middle MOVE and CLOSE last month at HS Indy. #3 LYKAN is very capable in this spot and upgraded from the May 25^th race taking KICKBACK that played a role in his race overall. Value is required going out for the “cold” connections though timing and price could be right on this one today. 

#9 JEALOUS EYES is respected in this race and fits in the role of the favorite with speed figures and class on par. His RunStyle also fits today’s group, upgraded with the class relief, and shifted back to the turf. He has yet to won on the turf though has many minor finishes from his maiden day’s that fit right in with today’s group.

There are others in this field that appear well-meant in this race and should present value with buried form. #3 COMMAND CENTRAL was unable to overcome the outside post with a WIDE trip in the May 25^th common race. He returns with some subtle change to an inside post and added ground as a move forward is projected. Hernandez sticks with COMMAND CENTRAL and noted as he was aboard #5 MODIFIER back on May 18^th  as well as the maiden win back in April.  The turf effort from MODIFIER has him back in the mix and Perez has him back in at the preferred claiming level, though the constant change in rider does not assist in confidence.

#6 MEMPHIS PRAYER is another finding a post position change moving off the rail in that common race last month. That draw and slow/SLOG start played against him with his RunStyle and dynamic for the shorter distance. Centeno takes over today to suggest intent and Memphis Prayer as an individual has form that fits right in with the “main players” on his best day along with buried turf form. The turf form from prior seasons makes #7 FORWARD CURVE a major player in this race. He was another SLOG last month and might have required the race coming back off the 174-day break. From that common race, #8 GATE CREW appears “obvious” here given the place finish, though visually did not have any excuse in the lane lacking grit and getting run down by Son of Grace, from off the pace.