Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 GYURZA has shown speed figure progression with each start and fits with that pattern in with today’s group. That subtle improvement gave her a look back on May 14^th with the maiden win, a game effort on the day. She was protected, stepped up in class and shifted to the turf on June 1^st, her first start against winners and should benefit from that start keeping up her conditioning for this race and back in at the claiming level.

#5 QUEEN EKATI has recorded some of the higher speed figures and could be given an upgrade from the April 20^th race impacted by the WEATHER where the higher winds made it tough to make up ground and the pacesetters carried 1-2 around the track finishing together and clear of the others at the wire. The distance is not her ideal though is capable around two turns against the right company and with the right trip.  

#2 ANCIENT MAN has shown more run than perhaps the running lines and speed figures give credit noting he was placed ambitiously in those races for his ability. One of those efforts, the April 13^th race earned a strong 70 OptixFIG and run making a MOVE against (X_BIAS) the track profile. That figure stacks right up with rival, #3 KING ZION, one that has recorded some of the higher figures in this field though is very tough to trust given the career race record. The class drop for ANCIENT MAN gave him a longshot look last week, though the trip and race dynamic eliminated him right from the TROUBLES+ start. The change in class could present the edge as the “new face” from the others in this group that have come up short at today’s $6250k claiming level and should offer some value as well.

In addition to King Zion, Perez will also be represented by #6 JACKPOT BOY one that is lighter number wise and must improve though should benefit from the added ground (STRETCH) returning to a route from the sprint last week. 

This race could change significantly based on the players in this race, primarily #3 TAHOE RUN (and #5 LARRY THE POET to a lesser degree) based on the result (or a scratch) from the June 11^th maiden race where they are also entered -- UPDATE: both scratched from that race to run here.

Removing them from this field, the task will be easier for #6 GONE AGAIN one that will be tested for stamina at today’s route distance. #4 ICE AXE is proven on stamina and should offer value of that pair, recording similar speed figures in the route races. Perez will also send out #2 RUSSIAN STANDARD, one that is currently lighter than the other two mentioned, though has shown progression in his races this season and could easily take another step forward and should also handle the added ground. 

The presence of #4 TEMPER TANTRUM in this race should make things tougher trip/pace wise on #3 SAILING SOLO, one that when able to run to his advertising can be a tough customer on the lead. The presence of Temper Tantrum in this race could also assist his stablemate, #5 PROTONIC POWER, one that fits at this level and in with today’s dynamic shown on OptixPLOT as a Large Quad II/IV Square. That edge could give him the slight advantage over his quality rivals, #1 SILVER QUARTERS and #5 CAPTIVATING MOON sharing a similar RunStyle, Plot position and shape. 

The pace should make the race showing a Plot that despite the “Yellow” PlotFit is consistent from Standard (current form) to Surface/Distance. The “Fire” Contention and higher 50 SpeedRate should upgrade the Squares – horses with finishing ability. #6 LATIN CASINO should have the pace advantage as the Quad I Square, compared to the “Circles” of #2 MISTER KELLY, #4 MALPAIS and #5 MEDAL OF FACT though must still overcome that pace pressure to win.

#1 LAKE MILLS should be stalking (Quad II Square) looking to take advantage with first run though must avoid getting caught up in the early pace from the rail as he is one of the runners positioned over the ParLine and contributing to the higher SpeedRate.

By contrast, #3 ROGER MCQUEEN will have to avoid getting too detached from the others early shown with separation from that first flight in Quad IV. That position will be up to the control of rider Uriel Lopez (still looking for the first win this meet – at the time of this analysis) though the race shape and current form (B OptixGRADE) put him right into a contender role today. 

#4 IMPERIAL MOMENT fits the conditions for this race as he shows up in his first start of the season. He will give up recency, though could hold a subtle pace advantage as a horse that has been effective on the lead and has that run style edge over the others in this field. #3 HATCHET CREEK has also shown some stalking speed in the past and will find some subtle class relief off his races here this season. Some further intent for this race could be in play as he comes back with the 42-day freshening and picking up Tavares.

#5 GOOD ONE has shown early speed in the past, though has been effective in that role on the turf. He will show up to make his Hawthorne debut and for Clay, a barn that has sent out live runners and many with this trainer change on this circuit. His form could present a move forward in the third start of the cycle and from a subtle trip on May 20^th at Prairie Meadows. The surface switch is in play for #1 REMEMBER THE MAINE landing in this race (should the connections take this event over a turf race on Wednesday) on the main-e track. His speed figures and current form fit in with today’s group and one that could be overlooked off the recent finishing positions looking for that belated win. 

#1 PERUVIAN LUCKY turned in an honest effort back on May 20^th at Pimlico finishing in a blanket for the deeper minors, though was not quite to the level of his competition that day. She should move up on this circuit and fit right in with today’s group.

The pace should be contentious (Sun) with many in Quad I and sharing the EP RunStyle shown on OptixRPM. #7 ON KP is part of the that first flight (Quad I above ParLine) and one that will shift back to this circuit and back to the turf where he has buried form over this course and allowance from last season that put him in the mix and could be overlooked with those races buried in his past performances.

Form cycle are the main knocks on #2 HURTS SO BAD and #5 FAITHFUL RULER both coming back for this race off wins and recording new tops – pairing those effort and holding form makes them competitive though is still something to weight as they could get wagering attention off the recent numbers here. #6 BALADINE is overall softer than today’s main rivals, though does present some upside as a lightly raced type, especially on the turf and with the subtle trip on May 31^st. 

#7 GETTIN DOWN should be a heavy favorite in this race for the connections and on the class drop. Those factors move her up in today’s race shape and shown as a dominant Quad I Square where she should lack excuse in that role and hold the edge over Circle, #4 SHORT STRAW.

#2 TWICK OR TWEAT also finds class relief, though not as big of a drop as GETTIN DOWN, though overall a right move for this filly looking to place here where she can compete. #1 VELVET SEASON comes out of the May 31^st common race when making her first start on this circuit. She should benefit from the local experience and even some intent with the addition of blinkers. As far as trip/effort, she should move forward noting the slow start (SLOG), WIDE trip and not (NO_PUSH) asked for her best on the day. #5 EVIE JEAN also returning from that event is back at the right level for her to compete, though is tougher to trust on the win end given the overall 0-21 race record including many starts at today’s maiden condition.

The new face, #8 CUPID’S HOPE is the lone first time starter and should be plenty fit for this race and appears to have some run reading between the lines in the published work tab. The barn is capable with debuting runners, jockey Uriel Lopez has at the time of this analysis has yet to win this meet and perhaps the barn is assisting this one with a live runner. 

Seems like the class drop and move back to the dirt will make 4-GYURZA very tough to beat. There's no pace in the race as she could even inherit the lead and slow things down on the front end. 1-SEQUAYA returns one week after a good effort while sprinting at this level. She gets weight off in the saddle as she could pick up the pieces late. 2-BELLS OF JOY could be interesting as she almost always sprints but has had a bit of route success on her career. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a little bit of early speed from her in here.

Another tough route race to figure as against there is not a ton of pace in this race. 4-ONE ACE is a horse that has improved in each start as the lightly raced 3yo may benefit from the added distance. If he gets away in good order, there's a chance he could make the top. 2-ANCIENT MAN looks to take action on the class drop. The starts three and four races back while facing much tougher would make him very tough to beat in this spot. 1-CHERRY ORCHARD ran an improved race in his last. He rated closer early in that spot and ran evenly through the lane. Let's see if he looks to show some speed from the inside in here.

Both 3-TAHOE RUN and 5-LARRY THE POET scratched from a sprint at this level on Sunday for the two turn race. Tahoe Run is overdue for the maiden score, but his last couple are strong enough to make him a top threat in here. 5-LARRY THE POET could show some speed on the stretch in distance as he makes his second career start. This race doesn't have a ton of pace so let's see if he clears and never looks back. 6-GONE AGAIN ran an improved race with the move to Hawthorne in his last. He did have a couple of short stretch, two turn races at Oaklawn this spring as it is hard to get a gauge on if he likes the route or not as he encountered trouble in both of those starts.

Despite only a field of six in here, this is a quality bunch. Looks like 3-SAILING SOLO has the potential to steal this one as he makes his third start back off the long layoff. The time away is the only concern but he looked like himself as he battled throughout in his last. 4-TEMPER TANTRUM is the other to show some speed in this spot. He makes his first start of the year and has had some success over this course, including a third place performance in the 2021 Hawthorne Derby. 5-CAPTIVATING MOON will have to hope the top two choices battle on the front end as he will need some pace to chase. He closed well here in his last and may sneak away at a bit of a price.

Thinking today has to be the day for 6-RISKY BOY as he has been knocking on the door at this level all meet long. He should rate close as there isn't a ton of early pace in this race. 4-IMPERIAL MOMENT comes in off the claim as he makes his first start of the meet. He is one that is going to need some pace to chase as he tends to rate back early and make one run in the lane. 3-HATCHET CREEK ran a race two back that would make him tough to beat in here but was a bit disappointing in his last. The inconsistency is what could make him tough to play if the price is too short.

Seems like the pace should be honest upfront as things may set up nicely for 7-ON K P today. If you get back to his turf starts from last fall, he has shown good tactical speed as he should be able to tuck in just off the early pace. 1-PERUVIAN LUCKY comes in from Maryland for this start as he has had some turf success as well. The inside trip will help as he should save ground the entire way and run on late. 5-FAITHFUL RULER is one with speed who ran a big race in Kentucky last out. Let's see if he is the fastest early or if he finds some company on the front end.

I liked 6-SANGFROID last out and expect she will improve in her second start off the year layoff. She looked to take a bit to get into the race in her last but then showed some life in the lane. 5-EVIE JEAN usually gets dismissed at the windows but has some some decent races on the meet. She showed more speed in her last and hung around into the lane. 7-GETTIN DOWN is the one that figures to try to clear in here as she takes the big class drop today. She has tired in her first two starts and the only concern is how much company she may have upfront early.

None in here will ever be considered quick but 2-BELLS OF JOY just might leave the rest in her dust…at least early. She’s one of those perpetually seeking her second victory but believe, with the stretch out, that she’ll be able to take a pretty easy lead and dare the rest to catch her. 4-GYURZA didn’t handle turf in last but she was a daylight maiden winner in her previous start, while making her first dirt route attempt. Logical favorite could return to the winner’s circle with the class drop and the return to the right surface.  1-SEQUAYA, with even more starts than top choice, comes off her best effort in a long time and even finished well ahead of top choice. But she has had a nasty case of seconditis in her career and her previous attempts in route races left a lot to be desired. 

Not really sure what to think of 2-ANCIENT MAN. He’s dropping dramatically after getting trounced in last. However, that race was on turf and this gelding had some competitive races in maiden specials prior to that start. His speed figures, with the exception of last, are easily the best of those in here. But the drop is suspect. Use caution. 4-ONE ACE stretches out. It’s likely that he’ll display better speed at this distance and just might find himself alone of the lead. 1-CHERRY ORCHARD also stretches out. He’s coming off his best race yet. This could be his spot.

3-TAHOE RUN found his spot. Of course, he also found “his spot” in some previous races but couldn’t get the job done. But he is better form than ever, he just missed in his last two, and he’s completing the route-sprint-route cycle. 5-LARRY THE POET and 6-GONE AGAIN both stretch out. Gone Again finished a bit ahead of Larry the Poet in last but “Larry” was making his career debut. Both figure to display better speed today and one or the other just might steal the show.

Hopefully we’ll be back on turf today and if we are this will be a terrific race. 3-SAILING SOLO is an 8-year-old with only 17 starts to his credit but he has managed to win seven of them, including multiple stakes. As you can imagine with so few starts in six possible years of racing, he frequently runs off layoffs. He’s making only his second start of the year and his third in the last two years. But we know he runs well fresh. He looks like the best speed. If he’s ready he won’t get caught. 4-TEMPER TANTRUM is another lightly-raced runner. He’s making his first start of the year but he’s another good off layoffs. He seems most capable of challenging top pick for the lead and just might be able to put that rival away. 5-CAPTIVATING MOON could get the trip. The connections of this late runner are hoping the top pair knocks themselves out fighting for the lead. He narrowly lost his first start of the meet. Leading money winner in the field could be poised to make amends.

2-MISTER KELLY could be a bit of a surprise. His first race of the year was on turf and, even though he had nothing left late, he dueled for the lead for quite a way before folding. Although he has had success on the lawn, however, he has been better on the main track. He had some sharp drills, on dirt, going into that race. He could wake up with a bang, and at a price, in this event. 6-LATIN CASINO moves back up in class after getting claimed from last. He showed little in that recent race downstate but he has done well on this track and at this level in the past. 1-LAKE MILLS showed little in his most recent start but he finished third versus rivals somewhat similar to these in his previous start. Like that his savvy connections gave him some time off with three good drills since that race. Drops back in for a tag. Better should be expected.

Morning-line favorite 6-RISKY BOY does seem most likely. He has finished in the money in eight of his last 10 starts. You could almost say he looks like a standout in this field but he is in a non-winners of the year for a reason. 3-HATCHET CREEK owns decent speed but the pace of his last race was simply too fast. The pace of this race should be more sedate. Guessing he’ll track the early speed and try to come on a bit late. 4-IMPERIAL MOMENT was claimed back by this barn from last. They have had some luck with him in the past and even though he’s still eligible for a non-winners of four, he seems to fit in with this group.

Interesting ship in by this barn. 1-PERUVIAN LUCKY didn’t show a thing at Pimlico in last, a turf sprint at this distance, but he closed well to finish second in his only other turf sprint, though that was a maiden. However, that’s a long way to ship if you doubt the ability of your horse and his barn has always been sharp. Expecting him to be a major player in this one. Rider Julio Felix has been able to steal some races on the front end in turf sprints and he might be able to do it with 5-FAITHFUL RULER. This gelding surprised at Churchill in last, fighting for the lead every step of the way but hanging on to win by a nose. He’s likely to have some front-end company in this and he hasn’t fared that well in previous turf sprints but this could be his day. 7-ON K P is a threat on or off the pace. He finished far behind Faithful Ruler in last at Churchill but he has had some turf success. That could make the difference in this event. 

7-GETTING DOWN says catch me. Drops and moves back to the main track. She showed speed but tired in her previous two starts but seems likely to take it all the way in this one. 5-EVIE JEAN has had a lot of starts without a win but she is often competitive when running at this level. Shows speed at times but closes at other. Either way, expect her to get close. 2-TWICK OR TWEAT drops, turns back in distance, and heads back to the main track. She’s had only one competitive race so far but might show more in this very easy field.