Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 APOLLO YOU ANYWHERE could present a pace advantage (Quad I) in this event. Her early speed was effective earlier this year and was caught up with a higher SpeedRate (and warmup) playing against her on June 1^st. The separation will be ley with #1 GHAALEB’S MAGIC, #2 ARCH FLYER and #3 MI CRESCENDO (upgraded of the set in Quad II near ParLine) taking up a stalking role and looking for first run.

#5 TAP AND TWINE does not present any edge on the Plot for today’s race shape though her form cycle (every other) suggests a move forward today and should be sitting on a top effort. 

#1 NORTHERN ALLIANCE could present a move forward (upgrade Surface/Distance Plot) wheeling back in two weeks to make her second start of the cycle and third this season. On June 4^th she chased outside (NO_COVER) horses close up to a Very Fast early pace before losing ground. Not only is she a subtle “flow upgrade” that tactically is not her ideal trip and should gain plenty of fitness coming back in this race and should get back to her preferred “stalk and pounce” style. In terms of tactics, Hugo Rodriguez will also return with #7 SAFE TRAVELS in that can rate if necessary, though has shown to be more effective on the lead and could be tough on the front end in here returning to the claiming level also a flow upgrade (X_FLOW) on June 1^st.

The pacesetter #4 PRANCIPANTS ran a big race setting a solid pace and holding bravely on to the lead to score gate to wire. On the track she stood out (PRERACE+) in the post parade and upgraded off the visuals. That is something to look for here and should consider some overall regression especially coming back in two weeks and projects to be much shorter this afternoon.

The race shape on June 4^th is noted with many returning from that race and the race shape flattering #2 NO NANNETTE NO and #3 COMMAND POINT. On the day, NO NANETTE NO was given an upgrade with the shift to turf, while COMMAND POINT required little introduction as one of the more obvious runners and going out for the live, Block connections. Both fit today’s race haps, though again project to be shorter on the pair coming back from the in-the-money finishes.

#4 ZANDREA’S is another upgrade from June 4^th likely needing the race coming off the break and has back form at the level keying off a similar $10k claiming event over this course/distance last October recording a solid B- OptixGRADE with a sneaky trip in that fourth place finish. 

#3 D’ARCHER has benefit from favorable trips in his races this season, and looking at OptixPLOT could fall into another one today. His position in Quad I with separation on the rest of the field suggests a clear pace advantage that should allow him to clear and the one to catch.

#2 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER could present value coming back from the June 4^th race. The short comment says “no speed” though there was more to the story (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) as he lunged out of the gate and checked off heels setting him back off the SLOW early pace and compromised from the start and race dynamics. #6 CHRISTMAS PRESENT is moving forward in his form cycle and has back numbers that stack up strongly on par and with today’s group. His Plot position (Quad IV Circle) is impacted by placement, timing, trips to keep in mind with price compensation. Some further intent could be in play this afternoon with Mojica jumping aboard for the first time and for a barn he does not often ride for. 

In terms of the pacesetters, #4 I’M YOUR CAPTAIN is preferred over #1 SOVIET STANDARD in this spot. I’M YOUR CAPTAIN will make his first start in at this lower claiming N2L level and can be given an upgrade from the race shapes in May sitting up closer to faster, contentious early paces at the higher claiming level. SOVIET STANDARD returns to the $6250k N2L conditions where he was competitive and the right move for this horse, though must show more overall noting the C+/B- OptixGRADES, a touch below the “B” typically required to win.

#6 UNCLE DICK is on the slower side and requires a top effort to win. With that said, he could present some upside for this race and build off his prior Hawthorne form. The May 31^st race was his first against winners and might have lost his race before it started as he was given a very lone WARM_UP, often a negative factor for horses, especially for those at this level. Trip and pace is key for #3 CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN for this distance though off the May 14^th visuals he projects to show a move forward (PREP) getting that race under his belt coming off the 135-day layoff. 

#2 SUMMER DAY was given a mention on May 31^st coming off the layoff and suggesting she might require the race – and a softer favorite. Her class assisted, turning in a game effort with adversity (WIDE,TACTIC-) still posting a show finish and B- OptixGRADE. The 8.5f distance also appears a touch beyond her ideal and the slight change in distance, along with fitness, is a positive.

#4 COWGIRL FRANKIE was also mentioned that day with the surface switch to the grass. Her physically suggested she is suited to the TURF and given just a second opportunity (the first a sprint in her second career start in against open Special Weight company) to run over the surface. The challenge with her is the gate, the pattern of SLOG (slow out of the gate) and from there making a trip and late run from off the pace.

#6 MOM’S TOWN presents the most upside in this field as a lightly raced runner making her sophomore debut in this spot. That is key as she will require improvement to compete from her juvenile season taking on the older, seasoned rivals. In addition to the potential progression. She could also present early speed in this race and be a factor forwardly placed. 

#7 MANTA REY is upgraded over many of the “experienced” other runners in this field and from the group that has come up short at today’s (or statebred) Special Weight level. The races he ran at Oaklawn Park were competitive Special Weight events and MANTA REY held his own including a B OptixGRADE on March 12^th.

#8 BLACK RAVEN wheels right back in a week for this second start and showed run earning a B- OptixGRADE making a MOVE following the SLOG (slow out of the gate) and continued to GALLOP+ out past the wire. First time starter #6 WICKED WOW could be a runner, he shows a “bullet” from the gate on May 21^st, an “outlier” type move compared to the other published times. The presence of top rider Orlando Mojica is also of note. 

Rosin was likely looking for #2 SOMEONE SAID SO to return at this level on the main track noting a vet scratch under similar conditions on June 7^th – though could not have been too disappointed sending out the winner of that race, Off Ramp. The turf is not a surface SOMEONE SAID SO has much experience over, though has been able to hold her form on the turf and compete keying off the July 17^th event last year at Canterbury Park. The pace projects to be contentious with six of the seven in the field sharing the E/EP RunStyle. #3 LADY RADLER could be the quickest of that group and shows up here off a dominant front running win in the Goldfinch Stakes last month. Class will not be the test for her as it will be for #6 LIPLINER, however the surface switch to the TURF is in her favor off the visuals and Surface/Distance Plot upgrade. 

#3 GROVELAND was not quite to the level of his graded stakes rivals on the “derby trail” this year, though this circuit and allowance condition figures to be the right spot to get back on track and some confidence going forward. His class and speed figures fit today’s conditions and also holds a favorable RunStyle for today’s dynamic. Harty already sent out a winner on this circuit and should be in line here for similar success.

Mason has not had nearly as much success so far this season, though she is a capable trainer that can get on track at any point. #1 G T FIVE HUNDRED has not quite shown the same class and speed as fellow three-year-old GROVELAND though has back numbers and recency that keep him in the mix.

#2 DANCE SOME MO has had most of his success on the turf and synthetic still needing to prove himself on conventional dirt. The two starts on the dirt could come with some mild excuses (the first being his debut and the second coming off a 209-day layoff last year at Santa Anita) and reasons to project he can improve off those two start where his form on the other surfaces make him a major player in here. 

Competitive race opens the card as many of these have traded wins during the meet. 1-GHAALEB'S MAGIC ran a very nice race last out as she settled in the second flight and ran on late. With the rail draw, she should get a perfect stalking trip once again. 3-MI CRESCENDO may close from a bit further back. She made a good showing in her first start of the meet and drops slightly to this spot. 2-ARCH FLYER has tactical speed as she could be in a pressing position today. She pulled off an upset score at 22-1 last out and should get first run on the pacesetter in here today.

Slightly different race complexion today from the last time this group met when Prancipants was able to steal that race. There's a bit more pace in here and a course that has evened out a bit as well. 3-COMMAND POINT was the beaten favorite in that last start but ran a solid race. Expect her to settle once again but this time run by in the lane. 7-SAFE TRAVELS runs for a barn that has had a very good last couple of weeks, especially with turf runners. She does have some speed but doesn't need the lead to win. She also has some back class as she comes out of a much tougher turf allowance last time out. 2-NO NANNETTE NO comes out of the same race as Command Point last out. That was her first time back on the grass in nearly a year. She also settled in that race but ran on nicely late.

With a pair likely to show speed in here, 2-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER could get the perfect pace setup today. He was in a bit too tough in his last but has found the right spot sprinting as he has shown the ability to close quickly late. Look for him to save ground early and rally in the lane. 5-IDEA MAN should also benefit from the pace upfront as he closed well for the score in his last. The added 16th should help as he has looked sharp in his three starts on the year. 1-NYOMAN has a lot of back class as the 11yo still has some good races in him. He is 28/37 ITM at Hawthorne and run his best when rating just off the early pace. Let's see if the drop helps him as well.

Intent is the key here as 1-SOVIET STANDARD scratched out of a tougher spot during the week for this race. He has speed, has run well at this level, and gets the bug in the saddle. Look for him to try to kick away early and never look back. 6-UNCLE DICK is hoping for a contested pace upfront as he should be closing in the lane. He ran a good race in his maiden score two back with Tavares in the saddle and had some late run last out in a spot that turned out to produce some solid return races. 4-I'M YOUR CAPTAIN is the other with some early speed but he has yet to repeat his sharp maiden score from April. Have to think he tries to push things upfront today as the class drop should also help him chances.

State-bred turf runners as some of these may look to the stake on the grass next month. 4-COWGIRL FRANKIE is in with an upset shot as her last two races have been solid. She closed well to run fourth in the Third Chance behind a very good winner and lane ran on late on the grass last out. There's pace to chase in here as she could get a perfect trip. 2-SUMMER DAY was the heavy favorite in this spot last out. She got a perfect trip and led late. Maybe she needed that race as it was her first start of the year so we will see if she improves in her second out. 1-QUILTING PARTY has been good in her last two as she figures to rate mid-pack early and look to move in the lane. This will be only her second start on the grass in her career but she held her own last out.

There's a good amount of pace in this race which may set things up for 8-BLACK RAVEN to rally late. He ran a respectable race in his debut and wheels back quickly. Look for him to tuck in from the outside draw and rally in the lane. 5-MARE'S GUNNER was highly regarded on debut as he was sent away as the 6-5 favorite. He showed some speed before giving way in the lane. Give him another shot as he should be a better price today. 7-MANTA REY ran good races at Oaklawn this spring for a barn that has had a good meet. He will also benefit from a possible fast pace upfront as he should be rallying late.

At one time this spring the connections of 3-GROVELAND had to feel they were on the Derby trail. He ran a good second in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa before finishing eighth in the Tampa Bay Derby. He gets Lasix for the first time here as he should get a perfect tracking trip. 1- G T FIVE HUNDRED moves back to the main track after facing a tough bunch on the grass last out. He shouldn't be too far off the pace either as he may try to get the jump on Groveland. 2-DANCE SOME MO has some speed and also has some back class. He was good on the turf last out but shows an incredibly fast work over this Hawthorne dirt surface as well.

1-GHAALEB'S MAGIC was in great form when 2022 ended and she’s been in good form so far this meet. Winner of last meets many of the same runners she just beat. Can do it again.  3-MI CRESCENDO made a nice late move to get up for second in her first start of the meet but might be headed for first today. The pace of this race could set up even better. She should be flying late. 6-APOLLO U ANYWHERE seems to hold a hefty speed advantage. However, he folded badly in last after leading early. On the other hand, he had a win and a narrow loss in his prior two races. Which runner shows up today? 

3-COMMAND POINT came up just short in last, a race won by Prancipants, who wired the field. Today however, that rival meets at least one runner who is also going the be gunning for the lead. But, have to wonder if the mile distance of this race will be too short for her. Hmmm. 6-PRANCIPANTS committed larceny when she wired the field at 22-1 in last while making her turf debut. That was her third win in a row. She’s likely to face marginally more pressure today but could possibly get the same kind of trip. 7-SAFE TRAVELS drops to the right level. She was overmatched in her first race of the meet but could prove to be the best of the speed at this level. 

3-D'ARCHER appears to be the only real speed in this race. He wired the field in his last start and won his previous race from right off the pace. He could prove tough to catch in this one. 2-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER never fired in last when moved into started company. Don’t think the company was too tough, he just never made a move. Drops back into claimers for this. He’s going to finish well. Seems to have the best chance to run down top choice. 5-IDEA MAN was a sharp winner last time out when he dropped to this claiming level. Meets a somewhat tougher group this time out but he can’t be taken lightly. 

2-SUMMER DAY will be tough. She was favored in her first race of the year and did take the lead late but just ran out of gas late. But this time she’ll be running with the benefit of that recent race and the cutback to a mile. She seems likely to earn her third career victory. 4-COWGIRL FRANKIE flew late in last to get up for second. She finished ahead of top pick in that race. It is interesting to note that was only the second turf race of her career. Could have more upside. 8-CAT ROYALE is worth another look. She never ran on turf but she does own a great turf pedigree. Think she’ll be running prominently early and she could be extremely dangerous if she takes to the lawn. 

7-MANTA REY makes his local debut. He had some good races at Oaklawn, often against far tougher company. He has been gelded since his last start and runners often improve dramatically after that operation. If he runs like he did in those good Oaklawn races, he should graduate with honors in this one. Heard rumors that 6-WICKED WOW is a runner. He's had decent drills coming into his career debut and he gets a sharp rider in the irons. Definitely worth another look. The well-bred 8-BLACK RAVEN split a field of five in his lone start but runners from this barn almost always improve the second time around. 

An abundance of speed in this field should make an interesting race. 3-LADY RADLER might be the most interesting of the bunch. She tired in her lone turf start but she came right back to win a dirt stakes race in her last start. This field is probably easier than the one she met in that turf handicap, though she could have a tough time clearing the rest of the speed. We’ll see if she can get it done. 2-SOMEONE SAID SO could be the beneficiary of a multi-runner speed duel. She’s not a big closer but she isn’t likely to get caught up in the front-end frenzy and might be able to take advantage late. 4-BERAVINA turns back in distance. She showed little in her prior turf races but they were contested on tougher circuits. Guessing she’ll run at them late.  

3-GROVELAND was on the Derby trail earlier in the year and was graded stakes placed two starts back. But, a poor effort in last dashed those hopes. However, he’s back in training and ready to run. Seems likely to outclass this field. 4-BLAME SHFTER has been getting better with every start. Recent grad takes on winners for the first time and found himself in a pretty tough spot but he could be up to the challenge. 2-DANCE SOME MO is a well-traveled runner that has only won on the lawn but he’s had occasional good races on the main track. He seems quicker than most in here. Might be able to build an easy lead and at least hang on to share.