Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 IZZY’S MONSTER did not have any issue with the grass but the distance and class level change for today’s race move her up against the competition. She is suited to the two-turn (ROUTER) distance showing those visuals here back in October at the Special Weight level. She returns to make her second start for the claiming tag and second start off the layoff returning from a TROUBLE trip on May 25^th from the start taking contact by a rank rival and despite the running line and finishing position still showed a solid late CLOSE.

#6 PRETTY IN PRADO has come up short without excuse and that includes when able to establish a favorable lead and trip forwardly placed. She does come back for this race in a positive swing in her form cycle and projects to sit on another one of her top efforts. There is not much value in the top two choices for this race – considering IZZY’S MONSTER being logical as the favorite. #2 LIL CARRIE D could present slightly more value and should also find herself in the right spot to return to a top effort. This will be just her second start on the main track, around two-turns when in for the maiden claiming tag; the right level for her to compete. She ran under these conditions back on May 14^th and WIDE up close to a Fast early pace and can be upgraded from that effort as well as the June 4^th turf start when taken hold and not asked (TACTIC-) for run. 

Another logical favorite with #3 LAND MARK DEAL returning in this spot for Block. He found himself at the right level with the win here on June 1^st, a race that might have been a “prep” for more ground though still found the right pace and trip to win. He should be able to hold his form for this race, keying off his consistent form on this circuit, coming back today with the added ground. The pace should be honest with four E/EP type runners in this field, many coming out of sprint races “confusing” the OptixPLOT with the “Red” PlotFit. #2 LAVENDER EARL should be considered off his form (OptixNOTES/GRADES/FIG) over the Plot position which has him position in Quad III as a Circle. His form cycle should have him sitting on a top effort today and some intent with the rider change to Hernandez His turf record consists of just four races on the grass with his most competitive race a third place with 87 OptixFIG earned at this level, course, and distance last June. 

The class of this race sits with #2 KANT BELIEVE IT the most established runner in this field and could hold a maturity edge over the sophomores in the field. She struggled to get the win this year at Oaklawn Park, though held her form with the consistent efforts and recorded OptixFIG, all fit in this race.

Rivelli will send out a pair including #3 MOVE IT BABY one that was scratched from a $25k claiming race last week. The scratch could have been to enter here and make this race fill for stablemate, #5 SPECIALIZIN as she returns to make her second start of the season. As far as the April 2^nd race, she can be upgraded as part of the fast (X_FLOW) duel that assisted the stalking winner, Flamand – one that went on to win a $75k claiming race at Keeneland three weeks later and just finish third in the Monomoy Girl stakes last Saturday at Ellis Park.

Looking at OptixPLOT there is a higher concentration of runners above the ParLine (40 SpeedRate) and surrounding Quad I (Sun Contention) to suggest #4 BACKSTAGE BAMBI could get into the number sitting the trip stalking that group from just off the pace. 

#2 ICE BLAST takes a significant drop in class to run in this spot, a move that appears to assist the barn to get a win and also likely to move on from this barn as getting claimed at this level is highly likely. His form here this season has not been as strong as the races/figures from Oaklawn Park though can be given some consideration with the WIDE trip on the turf (+ COLD barn) in May followed up by a complete EX – EXCUSE on June 4^th – the OptixNOTE shown in the Past 3 Runlines and was much more going on that the “trailed, no bid” short comment in the past performances.

The connections for #3 FLYING SAMURAI racing on this circuit make sense despite being eligible to run in the statebred races at HS Indy. His form fits at this level and with the increase in purse makes the circuit switch a lateral move. In addition to class, he looks well spotted in this race with the added ground stretching out in his second start back off the layoff. The same upgrade in form cycle/distance extends to #6 MISTER CHARMING, the two coming back from the June 4^th common race. The pace should be honest for these two to work a stalking trip. The early pace should be honest noting the 67 SpeedRate and more than half of the field, including #4 MOVE ON OVER and #5 RICHIESONAROLL above the ParLine.  

The presence of the Ward trained #2 DREAM FLY and #5 PATIENCE WORTH in this race should allow for value on the two Block trainees making their return in this event. As far as DREAM FLY there Is not a since race she has run that makes her a strong contender and an easy favorite to take on should she inherit that role. There is much more form with PATIENCE WORTH of the pair to lean on. The shift to the turf is less of a concern with the main concern finishing ability as she tends to give up ground late without excuse.

#3 I’M BOX OFFICE earned a follow with a sneaky good debut effort (B- OptixGRADE) showing a middle MOVE and late CLOSE while still GREEN. She moves up in the second start earning a follow (IMPROVE) as the trip was compromised with the draw, the WIDE trip with the rider unable to overcome and still showed the same strong late CLOSE. There is much more to her ability that what appears on paper.

#4 THEMISCHIEVOUSONE was looking for turf all along going back to the placement and scratch when the races were taken off the turf on October 15^th. The season and lack of turf racing forced her to run on the main track here in December, a race that looked to be only a prep. She spent the first part of the year at Tampa and was entered and scratched (this time vet) when the races came off the grass on January 14^th. Again, she was entered for grass here on May 14^th and the connections passing that day waiting for another turf race to be carded. 

#6 NOTARY is tougher to take back today as the favorite despite running a B OptixGRADE at this level on June 1^st. Heading into that race, he fit and offered value flying under the radar and upgraded for the race shape. While capable, he does not hold the same pace edge and could even be taken as a downgrade here as a Quad II Circle.

#2 READTHECLIFFNOTES looked to need the start on June 1^st coming off a 125-day layoff and should move up with the fitness (WIDE trip) and intent in this second start for Boyce. #4 SILVER QUARTERS must show a little more to get the win, noting he has paired B- OptixGRADES at this level this season. The race shape can upgrade his running style and in terms of value has that shift from ROTARY and upgraded over #1 SOUL COAXING given his pairing of C+ OptixGRADES at this level.

#3 SPORT PEPPER could be the under the radar runner to step up today and compete. This will be just his second start as a four-year-old and had the challenge last week coming off a 452-day layoff. Visually he looked overmatched against that group and given the DROP? OptixNOTES Keyword. That could be some concern noting he is back at the same condition, however comparing the OFR from race-to-race today’s 88-82 OFR is lower (hidden drop) than the 95-87 assigned OFR on June 14^th.  

#4 KATHAAN has run well in every race to date and that includes the April 22^nd Keeneland race when earning a B- OptixGRADE. Her effort was upgraded making a move against (X_FLOW) the dynamic and is given the same X_FLOW upgrade coming back from the May 31^st race. The May race had the “Snowflake” Contention and KATHAAN should benefit from today’s “Sun” Contention with the Largest Square (closing kick) in the field.

Looking at the Quad I runners, #7 LET’S CRUISE is given the Surface/Distance upgrade shifting to a Square. There has been intention to run on the turf, a surface she returns to for just the second time in her career. Her lone turf race, the Romacaca Stakes, was a solid effort on the lead just getting run down late by #1 RUSSIAN MAFIA, one that projects to run from off the pace (Quad IV) here. As far as LET’S CRUISE she is one that needs not only a top effort but also trip, as she does not respond well to the stick/whip and has lost focus and her lead when the rider was forced to go right handed. 

#3 GO STORMIN GIRL had “buried” turf form giving her an upgrade on June 11^th and she ran to it with a BTL effort finishing together at the wire with the first run winner, Good Mongolia. Her main track/dirt form stacks up at this level and in with today’s group. The connections will come back on shorter rest for this race and could be intent with a rider change as Emigh takes over for a barn he does not often ride for.

#4 LUCY’S LOOKING LEFT was entered to run on June 11^th, though only with the surface switch entered as MTO and sat waiting for this race. That suggests intent by the connections and is back on this circuit and in a condition where she can compete. That is key as trip and pace (often rider tactic) is required with her running style. Santiago has been a key rider in the past picking up the December 11^th win and place finish on October 21^st. #7 SHEZ RECKLESS was also scratched (trainer) on June 11^th and projects to find a lot of attention here given the connections, though as a projected favorite appears to fall into underlay territory lacking an edge over others in this field.

Both of those runners, require pace to run at and the “Sun” Contention/43 SpeedRate should assist them with that early pace to target. #5 TRIP TO FREEDOM is part of the early pace and as the Large Quad I Circle is tough to support off those visuals, however when combining the recent OptixNOTES (NO_PUSH) playing a role in the “lack of finish” Circle shown today. Going back to the March 19^th race, that effort makes her competitive and could cycle back to that race noting some REGRESS? was expected and the connections also returned with the class rise to allowance company where she was overmatched.