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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu June 22nd, 2023

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Pretty in Prado - 5-2 5 Izzy's Monster - 8-5 3 She Appeals Holy - 8-1

Curious to see how things unfold in here as the is not a ton of early pace in the race. Hoping 6-PRETTY IN PRADO is able to make the top and catch and early breather. She has run well in some starts around two turns and may benefit from the return to dirt. She does her best running while on the front end so expect her to get sent away today. 5-IZZY'S MONSTER is going to take the action at the windows in here. She drops off a respectable turf try in her last and has had some two turn dirt success. The only concern in here is the lack of early pace to chase as she figures to sit back and look to make one run in the lane. 3-SHE APPEALS HOLY is one of two Weir horses in here as she could benefit from the right trip if the other Weir, 1-HOLY STAR gets sent away to challenge for the lead. It has been some time since She Appeals Holy has run but she is working every week and looks to be fit and ready for this spot. If the pace is swift upfront, expect her to come running at them in the lane.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Sierra Hotel - 9-2 3 Land Mark Deal - 7-5 2 Lavender Earl - 6-1

Solid turf race to start the card as 3-LAND MARK DEAL will be tough as a likely heavy favorite. The distance is the only question for me with that one at a short price as I'll give the nod to 1-SIERRA HOTEL. He steps up in his second start of the meet but does so off a fine score in his last. Distance doesn't seem to matter to him as he should be sitting just off the early pace and figures to get the jump on the closers in the lane. 3-LAND MARK DEAL has found the board in 8 of 21 turf starts, often times while facing tougher than he will see today. He was an impressive winner in a turf sprint last out but will need some pace to close into at the longer distance today. 2-LAVENDER EARL could be a sleeper in here if no others go for the top. The last time he was on the turf was while facing much tougher in Indiana last summer. His dirt race two back was strong though and he may look to try to steal this one.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Kant Believe It - 7-5 5 Specializin - 5-2 1 Magna Massa - 9-2

Only five in this race but for a condition that is very tough to see filled nowadays it is a quality field. The leader of this group has to be 2-KANT BELIEVE IT as she makes her first start since the Oaklawn meet in March. She ran a good race in her last, chasing the pace and battling to a third place finish. The top two from that race both came back to win their next start out. She has consistent works over the track and just needs to avoid getting into a pace battle. 5-SPECIALIZIN is one of two Rivelli runners in this race but appears to be the more proven of the two on dirt. She has good early speed. The question is if she will have any company upfront. 1-MAGNA MASSA finished just behind Specializin when the two last met at Hawthorne. Since then she has made a pair of starts in Kentucky, most recently running a solid second while battling the entire way. Let's see what type of a trip she gets from the inside today.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Ice Blast - 2-1 6 Mister Charming - 6-1 4 Move On Over - 3-1

The class drop may be all that 2-ICE BLAST needs in here as he comes out of a tough race in his last. He should get more than enough pace to chase as I expect he rallies in the lane. 6-MISTER CHARMING is another that should benefit from a decent pace upfront. His best success has come at Hawthorne as he's another that figures to improve with the class relief. 4-MOVE ON OVER wired a field around two turns two races back against open claimers. He's in for the conditioned tag today as he may be sent away from the top once again. The question is if he has any company or not.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Patience Worth - 9-5 3 I'm Box Office - 4-1 2 Dream Fly - 7-5

A couple of talented young shippers come in as 5-PATIENCE WORTH and 2-DREAM FLY both head North from Kentucky for this race. 5-PATIENCE WORTH tries the turf for the first time but has the advantage of being able to show speed around two turns. She posted three consecutive runner-up efforts at Tampa this spring before a recent Keeneland sprint. Expect her to try to make the top and never look back. 3-I'M BOX OFFICE made a pair of grass starts in Indiana last summer, closing up some ground in each. She's a lightly raced 4yo who has been working consistently toward her return. With the pair from Kentucky in here, she may sneak off at a bit of a price. 2-DREAM FLY has battled some gate issues in her career but also comes in with the best recent figure of any in this race. The connections are formidable as well as she returns off a string of works at Keeneland.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Readthecliffnotes - 5-2 6 Notary - 2-1 4 Silver Quarters - 7-2

Another very talented field to go two turns. Thinking 2-READTHECLIFFNOTES may have needed the last race as he chased into the lane but didn't run on as strongly as he typically does. That race was off a five month layoff so expect better in here. I would have to think we see a little more early speed from him as well. 6-NOTARY ran a big race at this level last out and looks to be a deserving favorite. He rated just off the pace and was closing ground in the lane. A repeat of that performance will make him tough to beat today. 4-SILVER QUARTERS will need some pace to chase. He picked up the pieces late in his last, which was a solid third start at this level on the meet. Let's see if he tries to sit a bit closer early and can close ground late.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Lucy's Lookin Left - 4-1 7 Shez Reckless - 5-2 5 Trip to Freedom - 5-1

Another race where I expect a good amount of early pace to chase. 4-LUCY'S LOOKIN LEFT took action in her last at Keeneland but may have been in a bit tough. Her prior two starts at Hawthorne were solid as she rallied late while facing better. If the pace is contested upfront, expect to see her closing quickly in the lane. 7-SHEZ RECKLESS has tactical speed but may be at her best if she rates off the pace in here. She was claimed back into this barn off her last start and likes this Hawthorne strip. 5-TRIP TO FREEDOM returns from Iowa as she ran a big race here in March. The Tracy barn was having a great meet before shipping to Prairie Meadows for the summer but we are seeing some runners return in well intended spots.