Handicapper Tips & Picks

5-IZZY’S MONSTER drops one more time. Her best race so far was her lone dirt route race. She finished second in that spot. Figures to do better in this one. 6-PRETTY IN PRADO is likely to be joined on the front end with a couple rivals but she has shown sustained speed at times. She finished in the money in three of her four route races and seems likely to continue that trend. 4-BUNNY SHINE might be the quickest of these. She showed little sprinting in her lone start but she figures to be quicker from the gate than most in here with the stretch in distance. Makes her first start for this barn after getting claimed. Could be competitive.

3-LAND MARK DEAL figures to be the one to beat. He was a fairly easy winner of his last at this level. He’s not likely to get the blistering pace ahead of him to set up for his late run so he’ll have to do it all on his own. But the extra distance of this race could work in his favor since he has had previous success in route-type races. 1-SIERRA HOTEL moves up in class but with seven turf victories, he does know how to win. Six of those victories were at seven and a half or longer. Guessing he’ll handle the class hike. 5-STAR OF KODIAK seems like the main competition. His eight turf wins are the best in the field. However, all but one of those victories were in short turf sprints. He might not be successful in this race that’s about an eighth of a mile longer. 

2-KANT BELIEVE IT looks like a standout in this short field. This stakes-placed runner has been racing competitively in allowance races carrying purses of over $100k in Kentucky and Arkansas and her worst speed figures are considerably higher than the best of most of her rivals. 5-SPECIALIZIN could vie for the lead. She was claimed from her maiden victory and finished second in her lone start for this barn. The winner of that race came right back to win, suggesting this filly’s effort was strong. 3-MOVE IT BABY, stablemate of Specializin, races on dirt for the first time. Like her stablemate, she has plenty of early zip. Wouldn’t be surprised if she tried for the lead.

Not crazy about selecting runners off a big drop but FOR 2-ICE BLAST, the drop makes sense. He was claimed for $30k in his last start of 2022 and it was nearly five months before he made his first start for his new barn. He hasn’t been showing much versus better but even his recent speed figures suggest that he’s among the fastest of these. 5-RICHIESONAROLL won his last two in Florida, wiring the field in one of those races but coming from off the pace in the other. He’s another “dropping”, after winning a starter but he’s making his first start in four months and he’s had only one drill in nearly six weeks. 3-FLYING SAMURAI’s last race was just a tune up. He was making his first start since November and he returned in a sprint. He’s been pretty much a router from the start. Expect an upgraded performance at a great price with the stretch out.

5-PATIENCE WORTH has surprisingly never run on turf but her connections excel with turf runners and she’s certainly bred to love the lawn. Good natural speed should have her forwardly placed from the start. The winners of her previous two route races came right back to win their next starts. Maybe this turf route will be exactly what she needs. 2-DREAM FLY will draw the most attention and might deserve it. She raced at Keeneland, Belmont, Belterra and Kentucky Downs. However, her seemingly lackluster finish at Kentucky Downs might have been her best race. She’s been off since September but her regular drills will have her ready for a barn that knows how to win off layoffs. 3-I’M BOX OFFICE is another returning from a long layoff but another that runs for a barn that brings them back ready. She split the fields in her only two starts but could be prepared to do far better today.

He didn’t run all that well in last bhut have to stick with 2-READTHECLIFFNOTES. This 8-year-old has been too successful here (9 wins from 14 local starts) in the past to be ignored. He probably needed that last race since he was running for the first time since January. Will have to give him the benefit of the doubt. 6-NOTARY finished about eight lengths ahead of top choice in that last start and did it in his first trip over this track. Not sure this late runner will get the needed pace ahead of him but, after last, he’s likely the one they have to beat. 3-SPORT PEPPER never got out of last in his most recent start but he was making his first start in about 15 months and he came back in a sprint. Stretches to a better distance for him today. If he fires, he could be the first one from the gate and never look back.

4-KATHANN can run by them all. With the exception of a tough allowance at Keeneland, this filly has been first or second in all her races. She just missed to the very tough Katie M’Lady in her first start of the meet. Faces another tough field but think she’ll be the best of them. 5-CAT ATTACK is back on her best surface for the first time since October. Meets many with speed but might be able to put them away and finish with something left. 6-MORRIE’S JOY, 3-MY LIPS ARE SEALED and 1-RUSSIAN MAFIA will all be flying late.

4-LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT is back from Keeneland. She’ll also be racing without blinkers after a one-race experiment with them. Not sure if her dull Kentucky effort was because of the blinkers or that she was facing better but she’s back to the track where she scored three of her four career wins and she comes back at the right level. 7-SHEZ RECKLESS was claimed back by this barn after they lost her via claim about a year ago. She showed little in her turf debut in last, the race from which she was claimed, but had been running well when at the right levels on dirt in prior contests. Should show far more now that she’s back on the right surface. 5-TRIP TO FREEDOM drops. She’s been running out of gas versus better but she could be the quickest and could maintain her speed longer at this level.