Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 TIMELESS GLORY is upgraded with today’s race shape (Square) and current form coming back from the June 11^th race and B- OptixGRADE. She has enough tactical speed to rate close to #1 HER GOLD MINE (along with #4 HARD LIKE HOLLY and #5 CAIRO SUMMER) with first run.

#2 NO NANNETTE NO does not “standout” on the Plot, though comes back to the main track and key class change to the level where she recorded a B- OptixGRADE back on May 4^th. #6 WEEKEND PASS is tough to back on the win end, though has a solid late kick (Quad IV Square) and will be running on late picking up horses to get a share. 

As far as class and speed figures, #7 CLEAR N CONVINCING and #8 MALIGATOR stand out over this field. The challenge for the pair will still be trip as they cut back to a sprint and naturally off-the-pace (Quad IV) runners. The pace does appear contentious with the “Fire” OptixPLOT designation for these two to come running at late.

With the chance to get creative at a price; #6 BOURBON TEDDY will make his first start on the TURF, an OptixNOTE projection given back on May 4^th and could step up on the surface switch. #2 MUD ISLAND is another that will be trying the TURF for the first time and was given a similar OptixNOTE Projection earlier on in his career. Those two with early speed require a new top to win, though should have the jump (pace wise) on their main rivals. 

#7 MADELYN BELLE stands out in this field off her debut earning the lone B OptixGRADE and higher 71 OptixFIG. With that June 7^th race being her first start she raced GREEN both reluctantly to load (GATE) and broke slow (SLOG) before making a late CLOSE to finish together at the wire with the pacesetting winner, R Katiebug.

#1 LOVEYOULIKECRAZY also returns from the June 7^th race where she was making her first start back off a 186-day layoff. She took a legit stumble (TROUBLE_S) at the start and making a RUSH into the duel/FTQ, a solid effort to hold show (B- OptixGRADE) all things considered. #5 LADY WHITE SOX could spice things up as she returns today off the layoff. She recorded a solid speed figure in her second start, the June 24^th race last year, that number stacking up with others and not far off her main rivals. 

The “Fire” Contention is paired with the lower SpeedRate, a scenario that could upgrade #8 OPTION of the group of Quad I runners as the Large Square and lone Surface/Distance Square. #1 UNCLE NICK is part of that Quad I group sitting a s Circle based on his current form. His back class and figures upgrade him in this race, though does require price compensation to offset the current form that lacks an edge in this field.

#4 FLASHY RICHIE is another that has back numbers to make him competitive and a favorable Plot position tracking as a Quad II Square. His current form is not overly exciting, though has been consistent and lacks “Red” in the OptixGRID for his races this season. #5 LOOK AWAY could also find himself in the right spot to turn his current form around in the third start here this season. The March 26^th sprint was coming off a three month break and had a long DELAY to the start. He returned from another three month break on May 25^th race against a higher claiming class and first start on the turf with TROUBLE_S and all around did not appear much intent (77-1) in that spot and makes for a better fit at today’s claiming level and main track. 

#1 REALLY GOOD has the stakes and distance experience on his side to present an edge shipping in for Maker. He will return to the turf from the May 14^th off the turf race showing run contesting the pace while wide making an early move before losing ground in the lane as the race shape was slowing late. His form from that race was flattered when Salute the Stars came back from that win to score in the Pegasus last weekend at Monmouth Park.

#5 ACT A FOOL has run numbers in line with Really Good though as shown with the “Red” Keywords in the Past 3 Runlines, has had favorable scenarios playing a role. The maiden win 87 OptixFIG for #6 OUT OF DEDUCTIONS puts him right in line and the B+ OptixGRADE to suggest he can handle the step up in class.

Perez will send out a trio in this race all with ability in their own right, though require a step up to get on the level of their rivals here. Maiden #3 MONEY AGENT returns with #2 WOLF HUNTER from the June 8^th race and presents the most upside of that duo. #3 MONEY AGENT was making his local debut and just a second career start where he made a positive physical appearance and showed run after a slow (SLOG) start and off the visuals projects a move forward and should give an honest account of his abilities here.  

#3 LOOKIN FOR BALA has legit early speed and shows up back at Hawthorne from a dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) score last month at Fan Duel. He will be class tested back in against open company, though has a competitive race under similar conditions here back on October 21^st where he made a RUSH into a Fast (X_FLOW) early pace and still hung around late for show. He will be kept honest on the lead once again today and especially with #6 ELI’S PROMISE in the field, a legit SPRINTER returning to the preferred distance in his third start off the layoff and has the recency edge over #1 RIVZONAROLL coming off the 197-day layoff to run against open company.

#2 CALL ME ICE MAN should benefit from today’s race shape, stalking Quad II Square, with the “Sun” Contention. He has current form at the N1X allowance condition and should hold plenty of fitness chasing WIDE up close to a fast pace last month in the stakes (night racing) at Prairie Meadows.

Even with the full field, #7 SOLID COUNTRY GOLD stands out in the group as the horse to beat. He checks the boxes on speed, class, form and proven on the turf and distance. His form coming into this race is strong, keying off the BLANKET finish back in March at the Fair Grounds, the BTL run at Keeneland and earning a B OptixGRADE with another BLANKET finish on June 1^st at Churchill Downs.

#2 SIMPLE LOGIC was compromised with the ride (TACTIC-) and TROUBLE in the trip coming off the layoff on June 4^th. The all around handling played a role in the place finish behind his perfect trip stablemate winner, Power Through. Despite holding some upside from that race, today’s race OFR is much higher and class wise, this IL-bred  is taking on a tougher group today. 

Santiago taking over on #4 DEVLISH HOUR should be more assertive with the handling, a factor (TACTIC-) playing against him and a role in the May 21^st place finish. Going into the race, he made for a logical type runner with the class relief in his second start off the layoff and has those same positives back in for the $6250k tag.

Looking to get more creative in a “spread” race: #7 BLACK RUSSIAN has been his own worst enemy at the gate breaking SLOG in each of his three starts. Despite giving himself that hurdle, he has shown run in each race and improving race-to-race both on OptixGRADE/FIG; #6 ADDIE’S PEACHES makes some positives changes from the class drop to the sprint distance to move up under today’s conditions. He had TROUBLE_S and WIDE returning from the 177-day layoff on April 13^th and compromised by the placement (ONE_TURN, DROP) as well as the ride (TACTIC-) on June 7^th. The Surface/Distance change for #8 CHERRY ORCHARD could have him further off the pace (Quad IV) in this group and trip must be considered in this case though carries form that stacks up with others in this field.

#2 MAD DRAGON projects to find a lot of public support in this race given the connections/Rivelli, to the place finish at the higher $15k MCL level and just his second start. With that said, his running line on May 25^th was flattered by a softer pace (FLOW) and should find a higher early pace Contention (Sun) with #1 UNCAPTURED DREAM and #5 STAN THE CAMERAMAN drawn to his inside/outside. 

An off track is possible for today’s races so bet accordingly. Have to give the nod to 3-TIMELESS GLORY. She comes off a good second-place finish while making her Hawthorne debut. Puts blinkers back on after six starts without them. Her connections must think she lacks focus and the blinkers could help. 2-NO NANNETTE NO drops while returning to the main track. She finished third in her last Hawthorne dirt route beaten only a head but seven lengths in front of the third-place finisher. 5-CAIRO SUMMER is fresh off her third career victory. She is meeting tougher here but the speed figure she generated in that last race suggests that she can run with these. 6-WEEKEND PASS has had six off-track races and finished in the money in five of them, winning once and finishing second four times.

7-CLEAN N CONVINCING hasn’t raced since August and his recent workout pattern leaves a lot to be desired. However, he’s a seven-time turf winner, though only one of those wins was at this distance, and he races for the top barn and he gets the top rider in his irons. 5-GREELEY’S ICE ran his eyeballs out in last, only to lose by a head at almost 33-1. That race was scheduled for turf but moved to the main track. Always though he was a bit better on the lawn. Can prove it today with a surprise victory. 8-MALLIGATOR has been in poor form but he’s turning back in distance and appears to be the only one capable of closing in this speed-filled field. Watch for that late run.

7-MADELYN BELLE almost lived up to the even-money favoritism in her debut. She wasn’t pressed early but came flying in the stretch to finish second by a rapidly-diminishing nose. She’s meeting some runners that look like they could give her a run for the money in this but have to figure that she’’’ be even better the second time around. 1-LOVEYOULIKECRAZY could be the main competition. She finished second in the Debutante in the fall and came back to run a solid third in her first start of this year. She finished a couple lengths behind top choice in that start but she does have speed and the rail. Don’t count her out. 5-LADY WHITE SOX had a couple good races here last year before shipping to Indiana to take on open company in a route. That didn’t work out to well. However, the last time she ran here she finished second while running against the boys. If she can emulate that effort, she’s going to make her presence felt. 

8-OPTION just daylighted the field to earn his second victory. He took the lead quickly, coasted along early and ultimately drew off to win by 12. He always had speed but never showed quite that much. Maybe he can repeat. It’s been a long time since 5-LOOK AWAY showed anything but he has never been in this easy. Could come alive with the drop in class. 4-FLASHY RICHIE has a thing about finishing third. He’s done it all three of his starts at this level. With a little luck he might be able to better that finish in this race.

5-ACT A FOOL never ran on turf but he has simply been so sharp after a poor debut that he is probably the one to beat. The turf has been extra firm recently so that could be a factor in his favor although the weatherman is calling for rain so that seeming advantage could come to naught. In any case, they are going to have to try to catch him. 1-REALLY GOOD was a top-notch 2-year-old until he finished 12^th in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. However, he was only six lengths back at the finish in that closely matched race. His races so far this year haven’t been too impressive but his speed figures have been right there. The lightly-raced 6-OUT OF DEDUCTIONS didn’t show a thing in his debut but followed that race with an 11-length maiden romp in his first start here. Faces winners for the first time and found a tough spot to do it but he does appear to have tons of potential. The three Perez-trained entrants in this race have all seen limited turf action. One turf race each, but all have shown various hints of ability.

No real standouts in this race but with all the speed I had to look for a runner who would be a bit more patient. 2-CALL ME ICEMAN might best fit that description. He was overmatched in a stakes race last time out but he had been running well prior. The pace sets up. Might do it. 3-LOOKIN FOR BALA could turn out to be the best of the speed. Futurity winner from last year looked a bit dull in his 2023 debut but was in a field of “monsters”.  Headed downstate for an eight-length romp in his last. Might not get caught today. 1-RIVZONAROLL is plenty quick but tends to fold under pressure. If he can get a clear early lead he could develop some courage but not sure that is happening.

7-SOLID COUNTRY GOLD finished fourth in his last three starts but all those races were on tougher circuits. There isn’t a whole lot of speed ahead of him but that’s not always as important on the lawn. Runs by with a flourish. 2-SIMPLE LOGIC seems to have a case of seconditis. Beaten favorite in his first start of the year should have derived needed conditioning from that race. Better speed than top choice will give her first run at the early leaders. That could be the winning move. 10-SON OF GRACE is probably in too tough but he has a great turf record and he could figure in the outcome.

2-MAD DRAGON might hold a slight edge. He was narrowly beaten in his lone start. But it’s been a month since that last start and he’s had only the one short and slow drill since. Caution is urged. 1-UNCAPTURED DREAM finished a couple lengths behind top choice two races back and then narrowly lost last when dropped to this level. This race could be too short for 7-BLACK RUSSIAN but I like the way he was moving late in last when dropped to this level. With the likelihood of a protracted speed duel, he might be able to roll by late.