Handicapper Tips & Picks

6 My Vgw Hero 5 Evilheartedwoman 1 Phunatic

2 Bly Bye U 5 Eos Saving Interest 1 Iza B Quick

2 Jjs Blue Moon 1 Louee Blue 6 Dangerous Empress

6 Relentless Robin 3 Relentless Corona 2 Relentless Minnie

6 Relentless Bay 5 Sugar Rushh 3 Gg Heart On Fire

#6 LINDALOUIMAGE might have been “best” on June 13^th at Fan Duel making a WIDE MOVE finishing in a tight photo for the win. She will return to Hawthorne with the added ground with the STRETCH out to a route. She has form over this course and distance including a win at this condition back on November 6^th.

#5 COUGER is one of the more consistent types in this field she has finishing on the board in each start this year and under similar conditions to today’s event. That keeps her in the mix though must show more to get the win and could be favored off the recent finishing positions. #4 ZENCHUA SKY can be upgraded looking at OptixPLOT, however is softer number wise (same #3 C C’S WORLD) requiring price compensation – something that should be there coming off the recent 5^th place finish.

Trainer Brian Cook will send out a pair in this race: #2 SHADOW BELLE hold the edge on recency and even class coming out of higher conditioned races this year at Turfway and HS Indy. She will be tested again for stamina stretching out around two turns, though the class drop here should assist. As far as #1 INEEDAGIRLLIKEYOU, she will give up recency returning from the 102-day layoff and must show she can translate her top figures earned on the turf/synth to the dirt. 

#2 CELESTIAL SPIN has had excuses in each start this year and that paired with back numbers on the turf could see her competitive in this race. The turf EX – EXCUSE had to do with poor rider TACTIC- and is noted a third rider change will be made here with Julio Felix taking over to suggest intent. The pace should be honest with front running and stretch out sprinters in this field to allow her the right trip from off the pace.

#1 GHAALEB’S DREAMS also had TROUBLE in her May 18^th return, the first start back off a 522-day layoff. Despite the TROUBLE (and SLOG) she showed run especially late making up ground in a solid CLOSE something that is tougher to see in the running line and fifth place finish alone.

The distance is the big unknown for #4 BALI BABY though outside of that she fits at this level, on the turf and with intent noting Quinonez has been looking for the right spot to run her including a turf allowance (trainer scratch) back on June 8^th. The added ground and even the shift back to turf should not be an issue for #3 MAYSTART making her return from the two-month break. She will give up some recency and a slight class rise from her races here this season, though has races on her best day that make her competitive. 

As far as current form #3 GALLANT BUCK could hold the edge, and a subtle one coming into this race. This will be his third start back off the layoff and showing progression race to race, including the “flow upgrade” close to the Very Fast early pace on June 7^th as they return to the claiming level.  As far as class and back numbers, #1 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR has that strong edge in this group. Excusing the turf start at Ellis Park and the 2022 finale on the Canterbury Park closing day card (followed up by a 284-day layoff) his speed figures (OptixFIG in the 80’s) stand out over this group.

The class change could also suit #6 BALADINE, looking to find the right group to get back on track. His form coming into this race is also buried with some subtle trouble in the allowance races this season and still recording consistent numbers that stack up with the others. 

#5 TWIRLING ROSES recorded a strong effort at this level with legit TROUBLE+ on May 18^th. Despite the 5^th place result, he still recorded a B- OptixGRADE and 81 OptixFIG, both factors making him a player right back under similar conditions. The running line and result could have him overlooked especially when paired with the running line and result from the May 28^th turf race. That running line is one to “put a line through” as he had a legit EX – EXCUSE  from the poor rider TACTIC- (noting a rider change today) to the TROUBLE that still saw him CLOSE late in hand (NO_PUSH) and continued to GALLOP+ out strong after the wire. 

#1 STORM’S REFLECTION earned a follow with the sneaky good (B- OptixGRADE) effort on May 18^th showing a lot of run given a TROUBLE+ trip and lacking ROOM at a crucial time in the race. He came back on June 7^th with another credible run and not without issues that day forced back (TROUBLE_S) into the first turn and made a MOVE into contention behind the pacesetting winner, Bruce Banner.

#6 LAWMAKER will make his first start in against winners, though has plenty of foundation and consistency on his side and those efforts stack up with the others in the field. His consistent figures, especially on the turf and around two-turns stack up on par and fits today’s race shape (and in line with Storm’s Reflection) as a strong Square above the ParLine in Quad II. 

Rivelli probably figured #4 GETTIN DOWN would be claimed when they dropped to the $6250k maiden level two weeks ago. She picked up the win in a dominant B+ OptixGRADE effort and makes sense they return on 13-days in this spot and similar claiming tag. Her former stablemate #3 LUNARCHY could present a threat as she also was able to score at the $6250k maiden level back on May 31^st earning a 71 OptixFIG one of the stronger numbers recorded in this group. She was claimed from that race and “protected” by Meraz running for the $25k tag on June 14^th and returns to a more reasonable spot for her abilities here.

Following the race day analysis throughout June, both #1 SEQUAYA and #6 BELLS OF JOY deserving of another mention today and similar commentary as runners that are tougher to trust on the win end, though the race shape (Fire/15 SpeedRate) should see them moving up (Quad II/IV) from off the pace late – and similar for #5 BUMPER GIRL. 

This is quite possible one of the more competitive races this season and an event where so many fit in the right spot to compete and clear the maiden condition. With that said, a case can be made for many and worth highlighting some runners that could be under the radar. Many will return from the June 7^th race and that should see the wagering attention fall on #3 MO TIME AT ALL finishing second that day. His effort was game and had the right strategy to use for position from the outside and just caught at the wire. Third place finisher, #7 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY recorded a BTL effort and B- OptixGRADE with the TROUBLE/TRAFFIC trip that had him CLOSE against the dynamic and continued a strong GALLOP+ after the wire. Longshot #11 NOBLE CREEKER projects to again take up that role given his connections, the 5^th place finish and dismissed off some prior running line. He made a positive physical appearance, PRERACE+ and showed run with a WIDE trip and late CLOSE earning a follow.

#2 MINING CAMP shows up here with the right changes and ones he has been looking for since his debut. Visually he presented as a TURF runner early on and also one that required the maiden claiming conditions, a pairing that he will find here for the first time in start number nine. Number wise he sits in line with #5 ELECTRIC CHARGE another that has shown his abilities and should appreciate the move back to maiden claiming company though must show more today and in this field to win and could be one of the shorter priced runners in the field.

As far as the lightly raced runners making he class/surface switch, #6 LARRY THE POET should benefit from those changes though given the connections, he should take action on that alone. #9 MARCHING ORDERS will make his TURF debut and has been crying out for the grass and should move up on the surface and deliver a top effort, and likely to sneak under the radar. 

#1 WILDWOOD’S SECRET could present a strong pace advantage (Quad I Square) in this race and that could become even stronger depending on where the connections decide to run #2 BOURBON TEDDY as he is cross entered for another race. WILDWOOD SECRET first returning to the main track, this claiming level and portion of his “every other” form cycle. Giles landing here could also be a tell as he was aboard #5 BORN AGAIN GEORGE for the win earlier this month and timing not as ideal for this horse coming back from the HARD effort 20-days ago.

The subtle change in class (and rider) suggests intent for #7 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER coming back today for Haran and another holding a positive form cycle pattern coming into this race. He is surrounded by other Quad IV Squares (#4 TRIPLE CHROME, #6 TAPIT SAM, #8 C F V RED NOVA and #9 IDEA MAN)  in this race that also fit though with that Plot position and the 5.5f distance, trip/pace is crucial for those runners on the win end. 

This race comes down to pace. A couple in here with speed as I think 2-SHADOW BELLE stalks the speed of 5-COUGER. These two could follow each other around the entire way as we will see if Shadow Belle can take over in the lane. 1-INEEDAGIRLLIKEYOU has the ability to close some ground in the lane as she comes in with a bullet drill into this spot.

If 4-BALI BABY can get the distance, I think she has a shot with this move back to the grass. She's run some good turf sprints and may have a couple ahead of her to set decent fractions. 1-GHAALEB'S DREAMS ran a respectable race off the long layoff in her last. She has an easy work since that start and only needs to improve slightly to contend in here. 3-MAYSTART has been away from the winner's circle for some time but has also faced tougher company up until this spring. Look for her to sit in the second flight early and move in the lane.

Easily the toughest race on the card. 1-MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR comes in off the layoff for a barn that is great at getting horses ready to return. He gets class relief here and should get a good stalking trip. 6-BALADINE likely will improve with the move back to the main track today. We typically see more speed from him in dirt sprints as he may look to clear from the outside in here. 5-TABLE MONEY chased before tiring in his first start of the meet. He has some tactical speed and could improve on the drop.

Based off of recent consistency, 4-SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY appears to be in a winning spot here. There isn't a ton of pace today as he may rate closer early, much like he did in his last start. 6-FOLLOW THE SIGNS is another that could show a bit more speed today. He was claimed back into the Reavis barn off a solid win last out and should handle the step up in class. 1-SIMPSON BAY ran a remarkable race last out. He dropped to his knees coming out of the gate, spotting the field five lengths. He rallied in the lane to win going away. Let's see what he does with a clean start today.

Sometimes it just takes a win for the lightbulb to go on and maybe that's the case for 6-LAWMAKER. He was running some decent races and then battles to a good win last out. He has improved with each race this year and could continue that trend in here. 2-UNDISMAYED comes in from Indiana as he is lightly raced and has some speed. The distance should suit as he shortens up slightly off a good turf try in his last. 1-STORM'S REFLECTION is the other that could show speed, but surprisingly has take back in his two starts this meet. Neither race has been bad by any means but I wonder if he is better on the front end.

Thinking 4-GETTIN DOWN is going to be the fastest to the front and may never look back. She isn't being asked to do too much off her recent win and should outkick the others to the front. 1-SEQUAYA has to hope for some pace to chase as she will be closing in the lane. She did show more speed last out around two turns and had a solid sprint two starts back. 5-BUMPER GIRL could be the sleeper in this spot. He races two and three back but her in the mix in here as she will look to close ground late.

Not a ton of pace in here as 1-WILDWOOD SECRET potentially could steal this race from the inside. He ran a big race against similar two starts back before taking on tougher on the grass in his last. Let's see if he can shake loose early and steal this one. 7-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER has been solid while sprinting on the year. He has shown the ability to uncork a strong kick in the lane as the distance isn't an issue for him either. 5-BORN AGAIN GEORGE was a good winner last out as he was able to clear and never looked back. He typically runs from a bit off the pace though, and with the speed on the rail, a tracking trip could be a great trip today.

2-SHADOW BELLE makes her local debut. She’s dropping to face probably her easiest field since her maiden score. Ignore that last race. She was making her turf debut and obviously didn’t take to the surface. However, she did win the last two times she ran on dirt. Bounces back in a big way. 5-COUGAR returns from a brief freshening. She was in good form prior to her “vacation” and she could pick up right where she left off. 3-C C’S WORLD won her last two dirt starts, the only two dirt routes of her brief career. She’ll be taking on a bit tougher but no standouts. Deserves serious consideration.

I like the chances of 4-BALI BABY. She’s been meeting lower-level claimers on the main track recently but she ran well against better in her four starts on turf, winning once and finishing second a couple times. Makes her first local start and her first start for this barn after a winter campaign at Gulfstream. It’s been about 14 weeks since her last start but think she’ll be ready off drills. 1-GHAALEB’S DREAM needed last. That was her first race in about 17 months. It’s been six weeks again since that last race but believe her connections will have her ready to roll. 5-FREE LOVE can surprise. She never ran on turf but she does look like she could be the best of the speed in this race. She was outclassed in her most recent start but think she’ll break on top in this one. The only question is how long she’ll last.

5-TABLE MONEY found a little softer spot than he was in when he made his local debut. Plus, that was his first race as a gelding. He’s capable of running well on or off the pace. Expecting a better performance from him today. 2-SWISS GUARD could be the quickest of these. He tired in his first two starts after breaking his maiden here back in March. He’s moving up in claiming price but probably meeting somewhat easier than he’s been facing. 3-GALLANT BUCK is another with speed who tends to tire but this field came up easy and he might be able to last on the lead.

Interesting race. It’s strange that the field is dominated by closers and that is likely to benefit 6-FOLLOW THE SIGNS. He is jumping in class but he seems likely to grab an unchallenged lead. If his rider can get this old timer to relax on the lead, they might not get caught. Have to take another look at 1-SIMPSON BAY. He came from far back to break his maiden in last, a race originally scheduled for turf, but he won that much shorter race going away and he was able to close well on what was a pedestrian pace. Could be even tough with the extra real estate. 3-DASH TO THE CASH has been begging for more distance and today he’ll get the chance. He finished third versus similar going six furlongs in last. Could fare better at today’s distance.

Cautiously optimistic we’ll be on grass today. If that’s the case, 6-LAWMAKER could be the one to beat. He just graduated, in his seventh turf attempt, but he had been competitive in most of his recent turf starts. He’s shown the capacity to either run well on the lead or coming from out of it. He doesn’t look like a lock, on paper anyway, but certainly figures to be one of the major players. 4-STORM APPROACHING tries turf for the first time but his barn has been good at developing turf runners and his rider has been strong on the lawn, including riding a $154 winner Sunday. He could be the best of the speed. 1-STORM’S REFLECTION was just second as the favorite in a similar race. Could make amends. 2-UNDISMAYED tired in his turf debut but he is meeting an easier group in his first local start.

Out of the seven runners in this race, five could be gunning for the lead, including two from the same barn. Unfortunately, the two most likely to try to make a late move have records of 1-for-37 and 1-for-32. So, we’ll try to guess which of the speed can sustain herself despite early pressure. Have to figure it will be 4-GETTING DOWN. She tired in her first two starts and ran like a champ when dropped into a $6250 maiden last time out. She was never tested and won for fun. Others in here seem a tad quicker but she was never all out in last. There could be more in the tank. 1-SEQUAYA just missed in a route in last start which was her best race in years. She pressed the pace in that race but probably won’t get near the early lead today. Instead, with the turn back, she’ll try to come on late. But she is 1-for-37 for a reason. 6-BELLS OF JOY, another turn back, finished third in her last three. Like Sequaya, she’ll be coming late and like that runner, she already has a ton of starts under her belt.

2-MINING CAMP takes a much-needed drop in class. He finished sixth in his lone turf start after chasing blistering fractions but he could find himself on the lead through a gentler pace in this spot. He is bred to love the lawn. Might surprise. 3-MO TIME AT ALL will also try for the lead and might prove to be the quickest of them all. He led for all but the last couple of jumps going a mile and a sixteenth when dropped to this level for last. Might not let anyone by him today. 7-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY finished over seven lengths behind Mo Time At All in last but he was making his first start since November and he was starting to come on late after a lack of interest early. The pace of this race suggests a closer could have the best chance and he just might be the best closer in here.

7-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER could be headed back to the winner’s circle. He just missed in last to old-timer Nyoman but didn’t miss by much. Would be a much stronger selection if this race was at six furlongs but believe he can still get the job done. 1-WILDWOOD SECRET didn’t handle the turf in his most recent start but he was narrowly defeated by top choice, as the favorite, two races back. Speed, the inside post, the drop in class and the return to the right surface could make him tough to beat. 5-BORN AGAIN GEORGE has been razor sharp the last couple with a daylight win in last following a narrow loss. Loses his rider from those races to Wildwood Secret but picks up Felix who has won on him before.