Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 DOROTHY CROWFOOT worked 10 flat in the March sale and still with things to work out running on her left lead. She has had plenty of time since and plenty of foundation with the long series of drills here at Hawthorne. She will be joined by Rivelli stablemate #3 RICHIE’S GAL, an Illinois homebred with fewer published works and those works at shorter distances though with a live rider in Mojica.

Trainer Michele Boyce will also send out a pair of homebred (IL) fillies sharing a similar published work tab and times. The barn is capable with first time starters though in terms of debuting juveniles this time of year, this is something different as they debut later in the summer or even later into the fall/winter season. In that research, Boyce trained the dam of #4 DEVIL, Speed Devil one that was favored on debut and finish third first out (AP) before breaking her maiden in the second start here at Hawthorne. Boyce also trained the dam of #2 RUNBRANDT, Lil Rum Tum one that debuted at two, though did not break her maiden until her twelfth start as a four year at the maiden claiming level.

Rivelli comes right back with another pair in this claiming event. #2 OPALINE has the benefit of experience at this level and upside with the “every other” pattern. She is also a “flow upgrade” from the June 8^th sprint, up close to a Very Fast (OptixO4S) pace before losing ground. Number wise Opaline has the current slight edge over #5 GETTIN DOWN coming off a dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) maiden win on June 15^th.

Former stablemate #6 LUNARCHY recorded one of the higher figures with her maiden win on May 31^st. Claimed out of that race Meraz stepped her up to the $25k level, a move that is more of a “protective” one and returns to the $6250k condition, a more reasonable level. Hernandez will also take over today and this jockey trainer combination went viral last Sunday with the 80-1 winner, Command Central.

Both #1 BELLS OF JOY and #3 SEQUYA are tougher to trust on the win end given their overall record. Both should fit today’s race shape running on late though have themselves to overcome for the win and the 5.5f distance in terms of trip. 

#2 TWIRLING ROSES recorded a strong effort at this level with legit TROUBLE+ on May 18^th. Despite the 5^th place result, he still recorded a B- OptixGRADE and 81 OptixFIG, both factors making him a player right back under similar conditions. The running line and result could have him overlooked especially when paired with the running line and result from the May 28^th turf race. That running line is one to “put a line through” as he had a legit EX – EXCUSE  from the poor rider TACTIC- (noting a rider change today) to the TROUBLE that still saw him CLOSE late in hand (NO_PUSH) and continued to GALLOP+ out strong after the wire.

The pace should be honest enough for Twirling Roses given the 6.5f distance with #5 TEE BURNS and #6 TIMEHASCOME in the field, both runners carrying legit sprint speed and doing their better work when on the lead. That pace should also assist #3 SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY, though as an individual he must improve off his races, and steady B- OptixGRADES just shy of that “winning” type effort. Class and trip also comes into play for #1 DASH TO THE CASH and #4 ROCKET HOTSHOT both running on late with a strong kick, represented as Quad IV Squares. 

Perhaps June 7^th was not the day for #6 PACIFIC VIEW as she had a saddle adjustment behind the GATE which carried into the stall where she was very fractious and just ran evenly as the betting favorite to finish off the board. #5 BLAZE BEAUTY coming off the show finish that day and WIDE trip will shift to Giles, the previous Pacific View rider, looking to show more overall to get up to win. Both have shown some quirks at this level that leave some space for others in this field to jump up.

#2 FLYING COMET also returns from that June 7^th race and can present upside in her own right. There appeared some intent on debut, bet down and going off as the second choice from the 5-1 morning line. She did not have the cleanest trip either breaking SLOG racing GREEN and also noting the winner, first time starter Mysweetannalyze won gate to wire.

#1 GOLD OAK looks very live on debut for Reavis. This pattern for debuting Special Weight runners has a small though solid sample. She  comes into this race with plenty of foundation and stamina with the “old school” blowout from the gate on June 15^th to prepare for this race. Many of the first time starters that have had success showed early speed and that will be key here from the rail and does appear she is in the right hands with Felix aboard. 

#7 IAN GLASS is deserving of another look under similar conditions from the June 1^st race. He figured logical in that spot and all the way up until post time when he became agitated at the GATE when a rival acted up and washed out WARM waiting out the delay and for the race. That PRERACE- behavior seemed to carry into the race creating a sneaky excuse, and one that cannot be seen on the replay alone.

#1 MALPAIS looked to be using the April 30^th return as a prep for TURF and fir the first time this season will shift back to the grass. That change could be just what this one needs to get back on track, as outside of the effort in April the May and June races sit below what could be required to win. 

Rivelli returns with another pair of juveniles in this spot. #1 CLASSIC RICHIE has the benefit of experience and should have plenty of fitness from the WIDE trip on June 14^th at Presque Isle. He has been training here at Hawthorne and that includes a “bullet” from the gate back on May 12^th. Stablemate #2 RAVIN’S TOWN also worked from the gate that same day and lands here at Hawthorne to make his debut. This Sunday card being the first of the juvenile races carded this season could have been the reason for Classic Richie to debut out of town and even similar intent for Ravin’s Town noting he was entered and scratched from a Special Weight race on June 11^th at Prairie Meadows.

Trainer Fausto Gutierrez does not have the strongest debut win percentage though has a lot of experience with juvenile runners and noted for #5 CHISPARRAJOS showing up in this spot for this outfit. The intention was to debut back in April at Keeneland though has that scratch and some gaps in the published work tab since. 

The Perez pair are upgraded with the class drop coming into this race at a level where they look suited to their abilities. #4 ARMAVIR earned a follow from his debut against a STRONG group at Meydan back in December. He has shown some mild progression since, though not quite to what was required to compete against his Special Weight rivals in May. Returning not only with the DROP but also with the 35-day freshening and retaining Tavares are positives here. #6 ICE VORTEX was upgraded with the DROP on June 7^th and still presents upside from that trip from the TROUBLE_S and X_WIDE  with the race dynamic and result as the pacesetters cleared early and finished together and clear at the wire late.

That is also noted for #3 HANDSOFFTHEGOODS coming out of that June 7^th race and slow tart as he will look to improve with subtle class relief and shift to the main track. #1 LARRY THE POET also finds class relief today, a positive change as he lacked excuse setting a Very Slow early pace on June 15^th and was NO_FINISH late.

#2 GOLD SMOKE has recorded the some of the higher speed figures in the field and also holds experience at the maiden claiming level from back on April 9^th. Earning a B- OptixGRADE, his most competitive GRADE to date suggests he should move up and compete here. 

#9 GO STORMIN GIRL has probably had the toughest luck of any horse so far this meet. She was just short gaining with the BTL effort on June 11^th (a common race for many in this field) and validated that effort on June 22^nd where she was “much the best/B+ OptixGRADE however was disqualified in my opinion a controversial call. She will again look to validate herself back in this spot where holding form will be key again on the quick turnaround and what could be a much shorter number than the two prior starts.

This appears the right spot for #5 BALI BABY returning from the 107-day layoff. She was entered to return here in a turf sprint back on June 8^th in an allowance race before the connections finding a claiming event, one she was eventually a vet scratch from on June 11^th. She has some buried form and figures that stack up on par and looking to get back to top form for the first time in 2023 would have her competitive in this group.

Number wise #3 ZANDREA’S has recorded some of the highest figures in this field on her best day. She has had some subtle trips this year and for this race finds a significant distance change as she will sprint today for the first time in her career.

Most of the field (six) were entered in a similar race on Wednesday (6/28) rescheduled to run here after the cancellation. The presence of #1 G T FIVE HUNDRED, one of the horses (along with #3 CHAD’S FLASH) that was not entered on Wednesday and makes for a legit contender in this spot for Mason. The Mason barn started off cold with many runners that “fit” where they were placed this season, though has started to heat up keying off a pair of winners last week.

From that June 28^th race: #4 GALLANT BUCK looked to hold a subtle edge on recency. This will be his third start back off the layoff and showing progression race to race, including the “flow upgrade” close to the Very Fast early pace on June 7^th as they return to the claiming level.  As far as class and back numbers, #2 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR had that strong edge. Excusing the turf start at Ellis Park and the 2022 finale on the Canterbury Park closing day card (followed up by a 284-day layoff) his consistency in speed figures (OptixFIG in the 80’s) noted within today’s par.

The class change could also suit #6 BALADINE, looking to find the right group to get back on track. His form coming into this race is also buried with some subtle trouble in the allowance races this season and still recording consistent numbers that stack up with the others.