Handicapper Tips & Picks

#10 SAHARAN FLEECE could be overlooked off the running lines and finishing positions. Runners for this barn after often given a start to keep in mind when this filly debuted and given a look in her second start turned in a solid BTL effort and strong CLOSE after legit TROUBLES+ at the start earning another follow today. 

#7 EVIL INTENTIONS was green at the GATE in her debut last October and showed run with a WIDE trip competitive effort and solid figure that gives her a look coming back off that break here. 

#5 JULEE FOREVER must improve over all though she could be given some excuses for her races last October and coming back from the layoff with complete EX - EXCUSE on June 20th. 

#8 C V SCENIC LEGACY was the unofficial winner on June 21st staying on as the BOS after a RUSH into a fast pace and DQ's after making contact with rivals in the lane. She is likely to be favorited here and while capable should be a shorter price in this full field with others that potentially have not run their "best" yet. #9 HECTOR'S TROJANWIFE is another in this field that fits logically keying off the B OptixGRADE off the layoff in her season debut and followed up that effort with quick turnaround races in May and comes back with the freshening and flow upgrade from 5/31. 

#2 CALLIE'S PASSION is the horse to get creative with here. She recorded one of the higher figures in this field back on September 16th as a juvenile and making just her second start this season has the ability to improve here. She has been training consistently and quick and going out for a trainer that is unfamiliar though has connections with Philip Sims and Thomas Drury two trainers that are solid and would get more attention here off their name recognition. The ownership group showed up on this circuit last year (KEE shipper) with a Special Weight filly called Baby Blue Eyes that ran off from the field by open lengths at 6.60-1 and was ridden by Mojica, to suggest they are looking for a similar result and under the radar here. 

#3 ROMAN GODDESS is too tough to trust in this race overall and especially at the expected short price. Her one race back on 11/18 stands out though her other races are just mid and no edge over others in this field. #7 TWO WORLDS has the stronger figures on her side from Turfway Park and Blair has sent out some live runners here to suggest she is on the right circuit and spot for her abilities. Her class with the efforts in Special Weight company hold the edge over #1 KATE'S CONCERTO comparing their body of work.

#6 MARACHI JUSTICE could get overlooked in here wheeling back from the 7th place run at this level in their most recent go on June 15th. That race was much BTL than it appears on paper making a legit MOVE through TRAFFIC with TROUBLE attached following a SLOG earning a B- OptixGRADE - the same GRADE as morning line favorite #1 SOLAR POWER. He fits at this level and competitive under similar conditions going back to the place finish on May 24th. The pace should be honest for a trip stalking off pacesetters, #3 BUTCH'S BEST (also B- OptixGRADE on 6/15), #4 DADDY'S DREAM and #7 CABOOSE and even #9 COWBOY IMAGE could be up front early given the outside draw and a horse that often breaks SLOG requiring to be pushed into the race to recover.  

The confidence or lack of with #1 HEATYCONSTITUTION scratching from the Fleur De Lis (G2) last weekend at Ellis Park and being crossentered on today's card creates some reservations; and would rather #4 TAKE A STAND with a runner that is on the improve coming into this race as the third start off the layoff and has back numbers and competitive races under similar stakes conditions. #2 LIL KINGS PRINCESS has legit early speed and has form over this course breaking her maiden here back in 2021 PRESSED on the lead through solid fractions.  She has struggled to find her form through the pattern of layoff lines though appears some confidence running here in this stakes race for Ortiz and keying off the consistent solid works, she appears race ready. 

#1 CORNINGSTONE has a strong class edge and figures to make her legit in this spot. As far as the shift to turf, she is capable on the grass keying off her Special Weight efforts and figures last summer at Saratoga, numbers consistent with her form at the time and should be able to translate back to the grass here. 

The AE's #13 PHILIP SNOW and #14 CHA CHA LARRY should be noted here if they draw in and outside of the outside post fits in with this field. #4 LUCKIE'S JOY and #1 BIG CITY HEAT would benefit from a pace standpoint should those two fail to draw in making their trip on the lead much easier. They require that type of assistance with the documented legit early speed though NO_FINISH late. 

#2 NINE POINTER had form that was buried and under the radar and popped up showing an improved result with a clean trip despite the WEATHER conditions and first start around two turns on June 13th. #6 STAR REVIEW is another that has shown run and progression this season, something that suggests he could hold his form here and another move forward is not out of the question. #5 REITERATION could also be sitting on their peak effort for this third start back off the layoff. That similar "peak effort" came in their third career start last season as a juvenile, the July 15th race that closed out the year for them. 

#6 KING ICE has shown a strong level of class against statebred making him a legit contender in this race. His form this season and tough luck with the trips are no real knock and that even goes back to last year on the turf when facing open and stakes company. 

#2 DOUBLEDOGJUSTICE should be a longer shot in this race given the connections and recency running lines, running lines/efforts and visuals that are BTL and recorded with TROUBLE and pairing B- OptixGRADE. This will be his first start on the TURF, a positive off his visuals and the "unknown" should keep his price higher as well. #5 GOOD FOREVER is another first time TURF to upgrade with the surface switch. Tactically he should find a different trip here (likely going to the lead under Anderson) than in the Hoosier Breeders Sophomore stakes last month when chasing inside and never looked comfortable eventually rider easing/NO_PUSH up the pressure. 

#3 MASQUEPARADE could land himself in the right spot in this race and right timing. He appeared well-meant returning from the layoff in the Knicks Go though was compromised by the SLOG. The class, trip (TACTIC- TRAFFIC) and distance had him compromised in the Blame (G3) last month and still showed OptixFIG progression. He should benefit from the class/distance change and likely trip as he should stalk off pacesetters, #1 KEYSTONE FIELD (might be forced to the lead given the draw and overall trip should be considered with value and his RunStyle with the post), #2 FIVE STAR GENERAL and #4 PAT'S PROPERTY with first run on closers, #6 CREATIVE MINISTER, #7 BRITAIN'S KITTEN and #10 TARTUFO. 

Both #5 TRADEMARK and #8 PROMISE KEEPER show a similar position on the Plot suggesting they should find a similar trip, with MASQUEPARADE upgraded of the trio as a Square to their Circles and should be higher odds at the same time as the morning line suggests. 

#4 KITTEN MISCHIEF has a lot to like for a horse that is projected to be double digit odds according to the morning line. He fits on figures and class off his TURF races this season and for a live Thomas barn sending out runners here all meet long. He will cut back in distance and less considered with the distance change for this horse compared to others in this field keying off his mile races starting out his career, a pair of races with some of the stronger figures he recorded and looks to be back in form after struggling last year as a sophomore.

#10 IN LOVE holds a class edge as a G1 winner and exiting some higher level stakes allowance races on the turf and looking for this spot to assist in regaining some confidence. #2 STRONG TIDE returns to HS Indy and this very stakes race where he set the pace (X_FLOW) back in 2021 and could look for a similar tactic/trip here. That could be to his benefit and tactical speed edge over #8 VERSTAPPEN and #9 MCLOVIN exiting the longer distance races as noted earlier in the analysis. 

#6 KENTUCKY GHOST and #11 GENTLE SOUL fit today's race though require value as a top effort and some racing luck to get the win in this race though should turn in an honest effort keeping them in the minor mix. 

In terms of early pace, there is a scenario where #10 SWEET DANI GIRL could wire the field. She will be out there early and if left alone (and especially if the course as it can at times play favorably to speed - worth following on the early part of the card) can be dangerous. #11 FUENTE OVENJUNA has some early speed in her own right and could sit the trip right off SWEET DANI GIRL looking for first run as she starts to get Circle. 

That pace will be key trying to get separation and first run on #3 JUNCTURE, the preferred of the closers and one that is progressive and moving forward. She showed a lot of class and strong kick (Square) to get the allowance win and earned her spot here stepping up to stakes company. 

#2 TAXED might end up being favored here coming off the BES (G2) win and that race sitting on top of her past performances. The win was honest and continued to step forward with progression going back to the Oaklawn Park races. She did benefit from the ride and race placement/trip in the BES (G2) a trip that could leave her compromised if trying to make up ground giving the jump to rival #5 DEFINING PURPOSE. She is a solid contender and has an overall class edge. Comparing to TAXED, DEFINING PURPOSE was stronger in her races out at Oaklawn Park - that includes the Honeybee (G3) both earning B- OptixGRADES with DEFINING PURPOSE having a very subtle excuse that day stumbling inside the gate (TROUBLES+) and rebounded with the Ashland (G1) win in her next start. 

#3 MERLAZZA expects to get a lot of attention here for the connections and as players are looking for that "up and comer" in this race. Looking for that type of improving horse, #6 LILY POO races better than her advertising as she showed progression in her DMR Special Weight races and follows a similar improving pattern coming back this year and from a sneaky good effort in the Summer Oaks (G2) with a less than ideal trip. 

As the opinion of the person handicapping this card, #5 VERIFYING is not one that has impressed this season. His connections, race shapes and tactical speed has flattered him at times and has still come up short without excuse. He could have the pace as an advantage here though also a shorter price attached to a horse that has disappointed with similar advantages in the past. #1 TRANSECT has not recorded as high of figures, though has shown progression and willing to give an excuse with the trip in the Gotham (G3) a creative "perfect" race record. The connections were likely pointing to this race showing up in the May 22nd allowance against older seasoned racehorses, where he handled the task at hand that day. He should be well-intended here and must improve though still has the potential to do so. A similar excuse in graded stakes company can be given to #8 CAGLIOSTRO in  the LA Derby (G2) when he acted up in the GATE and was not checked out prior to the start and found himself compromised with a WIDE trip and off a soft pace with the winner, Kingsbarns coasting gate-to-wire. The DeVaux trainee is due for another graded stakes try regaining some confidence in the allowance last month at Churchill Downs.

Keying off the Gotham (G3) #2 RAISE CAIN the winner of that race shows up here and should benefit from the distance change from his races since that win and to his credit has held his form and figures going longer than his ideal.