Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 DOROTHY CROWFOOT worked 10 flat in the March sale and still with things to work out running on her left lead. She has had plenty of time since and plenty of foundation with the long series of drills here at Hawthorne. She will be joined by Rivelli stablemate #3 RICHIE’S GAL, an Illinois homebred with fewer published works and those works at shorter distances though with a live rider in Mojica.

Trainer Michele Boyce will also send out a pair of homebred (IL) fillies sharing a similar published work tab and times. The barn is capable with first time starters though in terms of debuting juveniles this time of year, this is something different as they debut later in the summer or even later into the fall/winter season. In that research, Boyce trained the dam of #4 DEVIL, Speed Devil one that was favored on debut and finish third first out (AP) before breaking her maiden in the second start here at Hawthorne. Boyce also trained the dam of #2 RUNBRANDT, Lil Rum Tum one that debuted at two, though did not break her maiden until her twelfth start as a four year at the maiden claiming level.

#5 BIG BLUE shows up here back on the main track for Winebaugh and upgraded as the barn has been sending out live runners this meet. BIG BLUE fits in his own right especially going back to the main track claiming efforts from earlier this season with those two 82 OptixFIG standing out in this field. #6 NOT VERY GENTLE has run similar figures at times in this career and comes back in this spot looking to continue his win streak. Trip can be the key with him especially with the tendency to break slow.

#4 BEHAVIN MYSELF should hold a pace advantage in this spot with his early speed and ability to control the race on the front end. He would need those factors in his favor, similar to May 21^st when be was able to get clear and LONE, noting he stayed on well as the BOS/Best of the Speed on May 31^st and June 14^th though lacked finish.

#3 C F V RED NOVA holds a class edge returning to claiming company. They won under similar restricted claiming conditions back on April 20^th and held their form/figures just not to the level (DROP) of the allowance rivals on May 31^st. It would have been more encouraging to have seen a quicker turnaround with the class drop here as just the slight concern while otherwise a fit. 

#5 TWICK OR TWEAT was still figuring things out when she started out the meet at this lower MCL condition and as she started to improve, she was stepped up in class. She held her own though the right move was made bringing her back down on June 15^th. She was no match for Gettin Down, a front running class dropping Rivelli runner though battled for second. Claimed out of that race she will make her first start here for Watkins and seems intent with Centeno aboard.

#7 GO ON GIRL was claimed for $7500k back in December at Turfway Park and since that race has been running at the higher level maiden condition this meet. She has held her form, though not to the level of her competition and the class drop moves her up in this group and could have the pace advantage (Quad I Square) here as well. 

Tough to see this race carded for turf staying on the grass following the heavy storms that hit Wednesday night to further saturate and already wet turf course recovering from last Sunday. There are a group of MTO runners in this field though the others that make up the main body of the race bring in main track form to complete a full field and competitive race.

#11 TWIRLING ROSES recorded a strong effort at this level with legit TROUBLE+ on May 18^th. Despite the 5^th place result, he still recorded a B- OptixGRADE and 81 OptixFIG, both factors making him a player right back under similar conditions. The running line and result could have him overlooked especially when paired with the running line and result from the May 28^th turf race. That running line is one to “put a line through” as he had a legit EX – EXCUSE  from the poor rider TACTIC- (noting a rider change today) to the TROUBLE that still saw him CLOSE late in hand (NO_PUSH) and continued to GALLOP+ out strong after the wire. 

#3 J Z’S FINE WINE was pointed to the route distance going back to her races late least year and moved up number wise with the stretch out on the grass last month. Class wise she has been a touch below (DROP) though today’s field with a lower race par could give her the right “class relief” to compete.

#2 VOSTRA looked like a standout when entered for the claiming tag on Wednesday, a race they scratched out of to run here instead. Overall, she has come up short at the Special Weight level and has a pattern of breaking slow (SLOG) that makes her tougher to trust. At the same time, she should offer a square number in this race with #1 BLAZE BEAUTY and #4 PACIFIC VIEW in this race, another pair that have come up short as well under similar conditions and both will be stretching out to a route for the first time.

#5 WICKED SKY could also present some value and is required on this filly. She is another with GATE issues, the tendency to SLOG though her April 23^rd race stands out and one of the stronger numbers in this field to give her a look back at the right number. 

#5 TAHOE RUN just cleared the maiden condition, though as a horse with plenty of foundation and consistency projects to translate his current form in this spot taking on winners. #2 FAMILY TRADTITON took a lot of early wagering support in the June 25^th turf allowance, a race won on the front end by Command Central at long odds. While that rival was able to make his way clear on the lead, FAMILY TRADITION was stuck inside and on hold behind horses, a less than ideal ride that finds a logical rider change today. His allowance form with the WIDE trip and place finish fits with many in this field, though must show a bit more today to win.

The pace does project to be contentious, a scenario that can upgrade #6 ROCKET HOTSHOT as he returns from the 35-day freshening. He has run competitive races this season in competitive fields with the race shape playing against him, especially in the May and June events. Not only should he have some pace to target today, but Blanche will also be back aboard and was up for his win back on December 17^th to suggest some intent with the rider change. #1 PATH TO SUCCESS brings in a similar RunStyle and has held his form though has come up short at this level and without much excuse and likely to be the shorter of the two on the board. 

This race staying on the turf upgrades #6 CELESTIAL SPIN one that has not had a legit chance to run on the grass this meet. With the EX – EXCUSE with legit TROUBLE+ on May 18^th and poor timing (TACTIC-) with the WIDE trip on June 4^th. #7 IZZY’S MONSTER has been able to adapt to the main track though from a physical standpoint might be at her best going long on the turf, something she has tried to, but yet to do.

#1 MAYSTART holds an overall class edge as she returns from the 73-day break in this race. She has run competitively at this level this season hitting the board and perhaps her “best” race this year was the BTL 5^th place finish with TROUBLE on March 30^th. She has been able to hold her form sprinting though some of her higher career speed figures have been recorded around two-turns keying off the allowance races last season. 

#6 CLASSIC RICHIE has the benefit of experience and should have plenty of fitness from the WIDE trip on June 14^th at Presque Isle. He has been training here at Hawthorne and that includes a “bullet” from the gate back on May 12^th. Stablemate #8 RAVIN’S TOWN also worked from the gate that same day and lands here at Hawthorne to make his debut. This Sunday card being the first of the juvenile races (rescheduled after the cancellation last week) carded this season could have been the reason for Classic Richie to debut out of town and even similar intent for Ravin’s Town noting he was entered and scratched from a Special Weight race on June 11^th at Prairie Meadows.

Trainer Fausto Gutierrez does not have the strongest debut win percentage though has a lot of experience with juvenile runners and noted for #5 CHISPARRAJOS showing up in this spot for this outfit. The intention was to debut back in April at Keeneland though has that scratch and some gaps in the published work tab since.

#7 NATIONS DREAM was not entered when this race was initially carded on July 2^nd and comes in with experience from the debut at HS Indy on June 6^th and vet scratch from a similar event on June 22^nd. On debut, they broke slow (SLOG) and showed some run noting the race shape/outcome was won gate to wire. 

First two-year-old race of the season after this group was rained out last weekend. Getting another look and going with 5-DOROTHY CROWFOOT as this $500k purchase debuts for a barn that wins early. She comes in off a sharp drill into this spot and should be ready at first asking. 3-RICHIE'S GAL has some good works leading into this race, including a nice gate drill on June 18. Curious to see how she looks in the paddock. 4-DEVIL has stretched out to a string of half mile drills as she should have no issues with stamina. Let's see what kind of gate speed she shows today.

Short field and not much pace as 4-BEHAVIN MYSELF should be able to make the top and control things on the front end. He has run well in his last five races and Olaf has had a great meet in the saddle. 6-NOT VERY GENTLE has won his last couple as the Haran barn has been solid at Hawthorne as well. He may need to rate closer like he did in his last if he wants any shot to wear down the leaders in the lane. 5-BIG BLUE takes a bit of a class drop as he turns back to the main track today. He put together back to back victories to open the season and is another that could rate closer to the pace.

This truly looks to be a one horse race as 7-GO ON GIRL drops off a pair of decent races. She was claimed for just $7,500 last December and would still do well for her connections if she is able to win here, even if she is claimed. She has speed, there's no pace in this race, and she should be in full control. 4-EVIE JEAN has run the best races of her career this meet. She could be in a position to chase in this race and I like that Tavares takes the ride as her best race came with him in the saddle. 1-BUNNY SHINE was claimed from her debut at this level before stretching out on the class hike last out. She drops back down to the level of the claim and may look to show a bit more speed from the inside as well today.

Off the turf as all of the MTO horses get an opportunity to draw into this race. It shouldn't matter for 3-RIVZONAROLL as he makes his second start of the meet. He ran a good race against a tough bunch last out in his first start of the meet. He's back today as his early speed should be enough to make the top and never look back. 8-SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY ran well last out as he stalked the leaders and run on in the lane. He has found the board in all six starts on the year but will have to get going a bit sooner at this short five furlong distance. 11-TWIRLING ROSES looks to rate mid-pack early and run on late. Seven of his eight victories have come at Hawthorne as he will have to hope Tee Burns challenges Rivonaroll early to help his closing chances.

This race becomes tough because you have to determine what to do with 1-Blaze Beauty. I'm going to try to defeat the heavy favorite and go to some proven around two turns. Leading it off with 2-VOSTRA as her debut race and her start three races back could be good enough to win in here. She has enough tactical speed to rate close and Santiago looks to be a good fit for her. 3-J Z'S FINE WINE runs for a barn that has had an excellent meet, often times with longer priced runners. She also has some tactical speed and could be in a good tracking spot. 4-PACIFIC VIEW stretches out for the first time as she also runs for a barn that has had an excellent meet. She's run consistent races in her sprints and may look to show some speed around two turns.

Sometimes horses just figure it out and maybe that was the case with 5-TAHOE RUN. He had run a lot of good races, coming up short a few times in some tough spots at Oaklawn. In his last, he moved sooner and responded nicely in the lane. He should get a perfect stalking trip again and look to repeat that last performance. 2-FAMILY TRADITION returns to the dirt where he ran a solid second to Act a Fool two back. He could be running alongside Tahoe Run early and try to outkick that one to the wire. 6-ROCKET HOTSHOT comes out of that same Act a Fool race last out. He chased that one on June 4 and held well into the lane. He finds things easier in here and merits a look at a price.

Looks to be a couple with speed in this race off the turf. Thinking 7-IZZY'S MONSTER gets a good trip from the second flight as she steps up off a nice maiden score in her last. Santiago takes the return ride for Coty Rosin, who has had a nice meet. 1-MAYSTART is winless at Hawthorne but had found the board in half of her 16 starts over the track. She rated closer in her last and looks to try to stalk once again in here. 8-FREE LOVE is one that has speed and may look to try to make the top today. She was a strong winner two races back and runs for connections that have been going strong of late.

Really nice baby race to close out the day. A $300k purchase debuts on the outside as 8-RAVIN'S TOWN has worked well leading into this spot. He could look to show speed and if he can cross over with that short run into the first turn, he may never look back. 3-FIVE O' SOMEWHERE has a couple of races under his belt as he ran well at Churchill in his last out. He comes into here off a supper quick bullet drill and now just needs to figure out some gate issues that he has encountered. 6-CLASSIC RICHIE ran a decent race in his debut at Presque Isle last out. He was well positioned early but just raced evenly in the lane. Let's see if he improves off that performance.

Money might not buy you happiness but $500k bought 5-DOROTHY CROWFOOT. Her workouts, for the most part, haven’t been that great and am concerned that she didn’t have a published drill in three weeks but we know her barn brings them ready. 3-RICHIE’S GAL, like top choice, is trained by the leading trainer. She has probably been working better than her stablemate and even had an additional drill that her partner didn’t have. Wouldn’t be surprised if she were the first to cross the wire. 2-RUMBRANDT and DEVIL are both trained by Michele Boyce. They have been working in company so it’s hard to pick one over the rest, but they have both been working well and could easily figure in the outcome. 

Going to use Behavin Myself as kind of a yardstick, or a unit of measure in this race. I Like the way 6-NOT VERY GENTLE has been finishing her races. She won her last two after finishing in the money in her five previous starts. She beat Behaving Myself two races back. Guessing she’ll do it again. 4-BEHAVIN MYSELF looks like the best, and possibly only real speed, in this race. However, he won only one of his eight races this year because he tends to run out of gas late. He’s been beaten by two different members of this field in his last two races but he’s always a threat to lead from flag fall to finish. 2-GAGOOTS defeated Behavin Myself in last though that race was at a mile and a sixteenth and the slightly shorter distance of this contest can work against her. 

Hard to get past 7-GO ON GIRL. The fact that she’s dropping sharply doesn’t bother me since she was claimed for $7500 four starts back and has just been racing over her head. Seems likely to just coast along on an easy lead. Shouldn’t get caught. 4-EVIE JEAN makes her 24th start as a maiden but she’s dropping back to the right level. Moving back to the right surface, and turning back in distance. She finished in the money the last time she turned back. Might be able to do it again. 3-FEATURED POWER has had seven races and never finished closer than 15 lengths back but she’s never been in this easy.  

This race is scheduled for turf but rain continues so chances are it will be moved to the main track. Surprisingly, that could mean more of the runners in here will compete since many are entered for main track only and only a few in the main body are strictly turf horses. 3-RIVZONAROLL looks tough either surface but probably even more so on turf since he would appear to hold a huge speed advantage on the lawn but might face some early pressure on dirt. 8-SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY is entered for main track only but it does seem likely that this race will move. He’s been in good form all year with a win, a place and four thirds in his six 2023 races. He’ll try to attack late. 2-UNCLE HEADLY is another who would be competitive on either surface. He can finish with a rush and there should be plenty of pace to set up for his late run. 

4-PACIFIC VIEW is only of the main in here who could benefit from the stretch in distance. She showed little as the favorite in her last start but she was narrowly beaten in her previous two races. She’s bred to go long. Could make amends. 1-BLAZE BEAUTY also stretches out. Morning-line favorite finished third in three of her last four starts. Gets the top rider for this trip. Can get the job done. 3-J Z’S FINE WINE didn’t handle turf last time out and she’s never been all that competitive but she owns better speed than most in here and that speed could be magnified at the distance. 

It took 5-TAHOE RUN 11 starts to break his maiden but he had been narrowly missing in his starts leading up to that maiden win. Faces winners for the first time but his local speed figures suggest that he’s the fastest of these. 2-FAMILY TRADITION didn’t handle the turf in his last start but he did finish second in his previous race while making his local debut. He’ll be back on the main track for this. Should bounce back with a strong effort. 4-CONI'S COUP is working well towards his first start of the year. His barn has been strong with layoff runners and his speed makes him dangerous in a race with relatively little pace. 

3-GHAALEB'S DREAM would have been good on the lawn but think she’ll be much tougher on the main track. She split the field on turf in last, her first race since 2021, and she finished second in her only other turf race but much of her previous success, including both wins, came on the main track. 8-FREE LOVE drops and stretches out. She wired the field to break her maiden in a route race here last November. Might try to get the same kind of trip today. 9-BALI BABY has never been around two turns, moves up in class, and tries two turns for the first time but she is shipping from a tougher circuit and making her first start for new connections. 

3-FIVE O’SOMEWHERE showed little in his career debut but improved dramatically in his second start and finished third. Those races took place at Churchill but she has been working bullets on this track. Finally gets to race here. Could graduate. 8-RAVIN'S TOWN’s works have been sufficient. Starting from the outside post is always a concern with first-time babies racing but hopefully he’s been schooled enough from the gate. 6-CLASSIC RICHIE is another coming off a third-place finish. His race was in Pennsylvania. The second-place finisher of that race came back to graduate in his next start. Stablemate of Ravin’s Town should benefit from the experience.