Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 DOROTHY CROWFOOT worked 10 flat in the March sale and still with things to work out running on her left lead. She has had plenty of time since and plenty of foundation with the long series of drills here at Hawthorne. She will be joined by Rivelli stablemate #3 RICHIE’S GAL, an Illinois homebred with fewer published works and those works at shorter distances though with a live rider in Mojica.

Trainer Michele Boyce will also send out a pair of homebred (IL) fillies sharing a similar published work tab and times. The barn is capable with first time starters though in terms of debuting juveniles this time of year, this is something different as they debut later in the summer or even later into the fall/winter season. In that research, Boyce trained the dam of #4 DEVIL, Speed Devil one that was favored on debut and finish third first out (AP) before breaking her maiden in the second start here at Hawthorne. Boyce also trained the dam of #2 RUNBRANDT, Lil Rum Tum one that debuted at two, though did not break her maiden until her twelfth start as a four year at the maiden claiming level.

#5 BIG BLUE shows up here back on the main track for Winebaugh and upgraded as the barn has been sending out live runners this meet. BIG BLUE fits in his own right especially going back to the main track claiming efforts from earlier this season with those two 82 OptixFIG standing out in this field. #6 NOT VERY GENTLE has run similar figures at times in this career and comes back in this spot looking to continue his win streak. Trip can be the key with him especially with the tendency to break slow.

#4 BEHAVIN MYSELF should hold a pace advantage in this spot with his early speed and ability to control the race on the front end. He would need those factors in his favor, similar to May 21^st when be was able to get clear and LONE, noting he stayed on well as the BOS/Best of the Speed on May 31^st and June 14^th though lacked finish.

#3 C F V RED NOVA holds a class edge returning to claiming company. They won under similar restricted claiming conditions back on April 20^th and held their form/figures just not to the level (DROP) of the allowance rivals on May 31^st. It would have been more encouraging to have seen a quicker turnaround with the class drop here as just the slight concern while otherwise a fit. 

#5 TWICK OR TWEAT was still figuring things out when she started out the meet at this lower MCL condition and as she started to improve, she was stepped up in class. She held her own though the right move was made bringing her back down on June 15^th. She was no match for Gettin Down, a front running class dropping Rivelli runner though battled for second. Claimed out of that race she will make her first start here for Watkins and seems intent with Centeno aboard.

#7 GO ON GIRL was claimed for $7500k back in December at Turfway Park and since that race has been running at the higher level maiden condition this meet. She has held her form, though not to the level of her competition and the class drop moves her up in this group and could have the pace advantage (Quad I Square) here as well. 

Tough to see this race carded for turf staying on the grass following the heavy storms that hit Wednesday night to further saturate and already wet turf course recovering from last Sunday. There are a group of MTO runners in this field though the others that make up the main body of the race bring in main track form to complete a full field and competitive race.

#11 TWIRLING ROSES recorded a strong effort at this level with legit TROUBLE+ on May 18^th. Despite the 5^th place result, he still recorded a B- OptixGRADE and 81 OptixFIG, both factors making him a player right back under similar conditions. The running line and result could have him overlooked especially when paired with the running line and result from the May 28^th turf race. That running line is one to “put a line through” as he had a legit EX – EXCUSE  from the poor rider TACTIC- (noting a rider change today) to the TROUBLE that still saw him CLOSE late in hand (NO_PUSH) and continued to GALLOP+ out strong after the wire. 

#3 J Z’S FINE WINE was pointed to the route distance going back to her races late least year and moved up number wise with the stretch out on the grass last month. Class wise she has been a touch below (DROP) though today’s field with a lower race par could give her the right “class relief” to compete.

#2 VOSTRA looked like a standout when entered for the claiming tag on Wednesday, a race they scratched out of to run here instead. Overall, she has come up short at the Special Weight level and has a pattern of breaking slow (SLOG) that makes her tougher to trust. At the same time, she should offer a square number in this race with #1 BLAZE BEAUTY and #4 PACIFIC VIEW in this race, another pair that have come up short as well under similar conditions and both will be stretching out to a route for the first time.

#5 WICKED SKY could also present some value and is required on this filly. She is another with GATE issues, the tendency to SLOG though her April 23^rd race stands out and one of the stronger numbers in this field to give her a look back at the right number. 

#5 TAHOE RUN just cleared the maiden condition, though as a horse with plenty of foundation and consistency projects to translate his current form in this spot taking on winners. #2 FAMILY TRADTITON took a lot of early wagering support in the June 25^th turf allowance, a race won on the front end by Command Central at long odds. While that rival was able to make his way clear on the lead, FAMILY TRADITION was stuck inside and on hold behind horses, a less than ideal ride that finds a logical rider change today. His allowance form with the WIDE trip and place finish fits with many in this field, though must show a bit more today to win.

The pace does project to be contentious, a scenario that can upgrade #6 ROCKET HOTSHOT as he returns from the 35-day freshening. He has run competitive races this season in competitive fields with the race shape playing against him, especially in the May and June events. Not only should he have some pace to target today, but Blanche will also be back aboard and was up for his win back on December 17^th to suggest some intent with the rider change. #1 PATH TO SUCCESS brings in a similar RunStyle and has held his form though has come up short at this level and without much excuse and likely to be the shorter of the two on the board. 

This race staying on the turf upgrades #6 CELESTIAL SPIN one that has not had a legit chance to run on the grass this meet. With the EX – EXCUSE with legit TROUBLE+ on May 18^th and poor timing (TACTIC-) with the WIDE trip on June 4^th. #7 IZZY’S MONSTER has been able to adapt to the main track though from a physical standpoint might be at her best going long on the turf, something she has tried to, but yet to do.

#1 MAYSTART holds an overall class edge as she returns from the 73-day break in this race. She has run competitively at this level this season hitting the board and perhaps her “best” race this year was the BTL 5^th place finish with TROUBLE on March 30^th. She has been able to hold her form sprinting though some of her higher career speed figures have been recorded around two-turns keying off the allowance races last season. 

#6 CLASSIC RICHIE has the benefit of experience and should have plenty of fitness from the WIDE trip on June 14^th at Presque Isle. He has been training here at Hawthorne and that includes a “bullet” from the gate back on May 12^th. Stablemate #8 RAVIN’S TOWN also worked from the gate that same day and lands here at Hawthorne to make his debut. This Sunday card being the first of the juvenile races (rescheduled after the cancellation last week) carded this season could have been the reason for Classic Richie to debut out of town and even similar intent for Ravin’s Town noting he was entered and scratched from a Special Weight race on June 11^th at Prairie Meadows.

Trainer Fausto Gutierrez does not have the strongest debut win percentage though has a lot of experience with juvenile runners and noted for #5 CHISPARRAJOS showing up in this spot for this outfit. The intention was to debut back in April at Keeneland though has that scratch and some gaps in the published work tab since.

#7 NATIONS DREAM was not entered when this race was initially carded on July 2^nd and comes in with experience from the debut at HS Indy on June 6^th and vet scratch from a similar event on June 22^nd. On debut, they broke slow (SLOG) and showed some run noting the race shape/outcome was won gate to wire.