Handicapper Tips & Picks

6 Averys Treasure 4 Vox Temperence 1 Cathy Wagon

7 Dickey Bob 1 Relentless Babe 2 Relentless Leagcy

3 Louee Blue 7 Wtf Romeo 5 L Gallito

#3 MISS MELODY is the speed of the speed in the race. She returns from a game effort to finish second, still recording the B OptixGRADE on June 21 when making a RUSH into a fast (X_FLOW) pace and getting run down late by I Don’t Know Margo. While she has those advantages coming back today and to a shorter distance, she does project to deal with contention once again with #5 KITTY MACLEAN and #6 CRYSTAL SNOW in the field.

The pace contention could benefit #2 IGGY BIGS, one that looks to be a threat in her own ride. This will be her first start in for the claiming tag since her maiden win back in 2021 and the higher $25k tag today offsets some concerns with the class change. The barn is likely looking for the right spot where she can compete, and numbers and class stack up at this level. She has been entered a couple times this season back in April with some setbacks missing training in May though has recorded strong works, characteristic for her leading up to this event.

Overall there is not much between IGGY BIGS and #4 BEG BORROW N STEAL as far as numbers and OptixPlot position that is tough to discount when trying to give preference. The tradeoff here is IGGY appears to have intent returning in this spot off the layoff, where BEG has recency on her side. 

Rivelli shows up with a pair in this race giving preference to #1 MOMENT TO SHINE. She will return to take on winners for the first time though has foundation going back to a competitive, yet tough trip on debut against quality company and rebounded coming back from the layoff last month showing class to get the win. In terms of her running style she has been able to rate and finish, something that appears key in this race. Her stablemate, #6 SPECIALIZIN is very quick, with legit early speed. There are others in this field that project to show early speed as well with #4 R KATIEBUG setting a fast pace (a slower pace set on the lead for #3 MYSWEETANNALYZE in debut win) breaking her maiden on debut.

#7 BELPERRON is also capable of showing early speed, though has also shown the ability to press/stalk-and-pounce, and with the outside draw could fall into a favorable trip. #2 MAGNA MASSA is a tougher read in terms of pace as she likely wants to be forwardly placed, though has shown throughout her career a pattern of SLOG, including the allowance here on June 22^nd. She was also SLOG back on April 2^nd though also put forward a BTL race that day earning a follow and must improve off the C+ last month, though projects another honest effort for a share. 

This race staying on the turf seems like a longshot, though if it remains on the grass #2 CELESTIAL SPIN one that has not had a legit chance to run on the grass this meet. The EX – EXCUSE with legit TROUBLE+ on May 18^th and poor timing (TACTIC-) with the WIDE trip on June 4^th has not allowed her a fair chance to compete and given a look back in this spot run under similar conditions. She is preferred on the turf, though can make a case off some of her main track races from back in 2021, those races fit with today’s field.

It appears more reasonable to handicap this race for the main track and will assume the field stays intact: #1 PRANCIPANTS has found her top form this season and returning to the May 18^th and June 4^th efforts becomes a player in this spot and event the controlling speed. There are others in the field likely to take up a forward position with #8 ROMANTIC ATTACK projecting to establish position from the outside and similar for #7 ZANDREA’S coming back from the June 18^th race against (X_FLOW) the extreme (SPACED) dynamic. #3 TIMELESS GLORY has also shown early speed when needed, such as the June 25^th match race. She is more effort with a stalk and pounce trip, similar to the June 11^th race and the two races from earlier this season at Tampa Bay Downs.

#4 ON A TOUR has benefit from the surface switch and races coming off the turf throughout her career and could be what the connections were looking for today. While this is technically a step up in class, the race OFR is similar today to the main track route races in her two more recent starts; and a drop in class from the higher Optional Claiming races back in December – both efforts earning 74-76 OptixFIG. #6 COMMAND POINT could set the trip, however, is unknown on the main track or if she will stay in this race noting there are many “Off-Turf” scratches in her past performance that show up on OptixGRID, something that is not seen in the standard past performances. 

Perez sends out a pair in this race with a case to be made for both runners: #2 ARMAVIR was given a look showing up on this circuit and keying off the STRONG debut at Meydan featuring Group/Stakes winners. He did not seem prepared in his May 18^th local debut and perhaps similar when returning just 10-days later with the shorter sprint distance. To his credit he did improve slightly on numbers and another move forward is projected with the DROP and stretch back out in distance. #5 ICE VORTEX will make a main track debut, though the change is less of a concern as he was entered for the main track at the Fair Grounds in February and also here for the $15k tag on April 30^th. As far as his races returning on the turf, he looked to be given/PREP the May 21^st race and had legit issues in running from TROUBLE_S to significant ground loss (X_WIDE) on June 7^th.

The class DROP has been waiting for #3 GOLD SMOKE after the connections stepped up to Special Weight following the place finish back in April. He has been able to hold his form and numbers, just not to the level of his competition to win and moves up with the class change and in with today’s group. As far as #1 GHOST BIKE, his March 9^th effort at the Fair Grounds (shown in Past 3 Runlines/OptixPLOT), however, he appeared well-intended on June 7^th at HS Indy and lacked any excuse (some excuse on 5/2) with the NO_FINISH after contested on a SLOW/S early pace. A similar Very Slow/VS and NO_FINISH for #6 LARRY THE POET on June 15^th creates some reservations as well – and especially as the two project to take wagering support based on their connections. 

#2 SAMARITA fits today’s race shape and overdue for a win this season. She put forward a BTL effort on April 23^rd and came back to “win” on May 7th albeit riderless after losing (TROUBLES+) Mojica at the start.  Since that race she was compromised with the trip (TACTIC-, TRAFFIC, TROUBLE) on May 31^st still recording a B- OptixGRADE with the fourth place run and improved her OptixFIG with the B- OptixGRADE on June 11^th with Tavares aboard, the returning rider today. 

#3 I’M BOX OFFICE earned a follow off her races last year at HS Indy, both races visually more competitive than it appears “on paper” and validated those efforts with a dominant, B+ OptixGRADE, win breaking her maiden off the layoff last month. She projects to move forward and handle the class rise given the Grade. As far as the main track, should that come into play, the surface is an unknown though perhaps the connections can provide insight whether they stay in or scratch from the race.

Stablemate #8 TAR HEEL GIRL has the benefit of main track experience, the course where she broke her maiden earlier this season. She had a look that day keying off her Gulfstream debut showing run with legit TROUBLES+ and projected to IMPROVE. She was able to hold her form against allowance company on June 8^th over the turf in a subtle trip (TACTIC-) that will see a rider change and the blinkers added today.

The main track was intended for #10 DIALED INNA when entered as MTO under similar allowance conditions on June 21^st. She fits back under similar conditions from the April 13^th race making a MOVE against/X_BIAS as well as the BLANKET finish on May 7^th. #11 STYLE wheels right back for this race and finds a subtle class drop as well as added ground stretching back out to a route. Overall improvement from the race last week is expected noting she acted up, fractious in the GATE leading to a SLOG suggesting she might have lost her race before it started. 

The connections of #5 WEST WARPATH were entered for the $10k tag looking to run on the turf (scratch with the surface switch) on July 5^th. The class change coming off an allowance win had some overall concerns more than the surface, though as they must run for the $13.5k tag today the change might not be as concerning as they did claim this horse for $7.5k back in March.

#8 TRY TRY AGAIN won at this level back on April 23^rd and finds a similar pattern with the “every other” race result returning here for Zawitz. #6 FOLLOW THE SIGNS projects to be shorter of the two coming back today off a win, that “1” sitting on top of the past performances. To his credit, he also holds a win at this conditions back on April 2^nd though was BIAS aided with the WEATHER conditions making it tougher for horses to pass in the stretch.

#7 FULL MAGAZINE also shows up with an upgrade in his form cycle, however, must prove he can run his top effort here at Hawthorne, something he has struggled with in the past, recording his higher figures at Fairmount/FanDuel.

#3 TIMEHASCOME had a class test last month stepping up to starter allowance company and held his own setting a solid/X_FLOW pace and getting caught tiring as the race was slowing late. To his credit, he also improved his OptixFIG that day. The 83 OptixFIG is on the lower end of OFR, though could again be the controlling speed (Quad I Square) in the race to hold again for a share. #11 PAYSTER did not have much turf or two-turn form to suggest the placement on June 22^nd was to give this horse a race coming back off the layoff. He returns to the main track and sprint distance, more familiar conditions, though to win requires a top effort, form from his juvenile season in 2020 and efforts he has rarely produced.

#2 GUN RUSH will again look to be the king of the finale and looking to continue his current win streak. He had the edge over his competition and pace pressure in the races this season though could find himself tested early with #6 GITA’S LAD in the race and dropping from the higher $40k OC events and capable of running with GUN RUSH early. As far as GITA’S LAD there does appear intent today with the class drop and Santiago, the win rider back aboard.

Those two in the race are projected to take the bulk of wagering support as they are quite logical as individuals, though could create a trip for others in this race should they go at right from the start. #8 FIRST MASAMUNE comes into this race on a positive “every other” pattern and earned the B OptixGRADE on June 1^st to suggest he can compete for the top spot at this level. Trip is key for #3 GLOBAL EMPIRE, though could find the right pace scenario at the right time as he has run competitive races under similar conditions this meet.  

#9 PINEDALE should be a longshot in this race and overlooked off his recent running lines. He has just the one race in his career that can win today, the May 14^th race. That effort came in the third start off the layoff setting him up with subtle trips, a similar form cycle pattern today and could be sitting on that peak effort once again. 

While it appears there are a couple of horses in here with speed, I would expect that 3-MISS MELODY is the fastest to the front. She scampered away to clear while going three quarters in her last. She shortens up a 16th today and could easily take this race from gate to wire. 4-BEG BORROW N STEAL has to hope Crystal Snow pressed Miss Melody early as she figures to settle and run on late. She dropped to this level for her last and ran well as her best races have come here at Hawthorne. 1-JUDY'S MS. OFFICER has tactical speed as she stalked her stablemate last out and ran by late. Look for her to be in a similar position early but we will see if she is chasing one horse or a duo in the stretch.

Solid allowance field that could have a contested pace. One that comes out of a tough field last out is 6-SPECIALIZIN as she has speed but doesn't need the lead to win. She faced a tough one in Kan't Believe It in that spot but held her own late into the lane. I expect she chases again in here early but should be able to run on late. 2-MAGNA MASSA will benefit as well if there is a quick and contested pace as she figures to settle early and rally in the stretch. She's another that has held her own against solid horses and should fare well from the inside draw. 4-R KATIEBUG has speed as she battled the entire way in her last and got her nose down on the wire. She faces open-company today but potentially could be the fastest to the front.

Forecast doesn't look great for turf but anything can happen. One thing we know is that there is very little pace in here and 1-PRANCIPANTS is in the top form of her career. She has run well in her last four starts and looks to be lone speed on turf or dirt. 6-COMMAND POINT is likely turf only as she comes off an impressive score last out. She will need some pace to chase but there's the potential that she gets a very similar trip to the one she got two starts back when she was left to chase Pancipants and couldn't get up in time. 4-ON A TOUR looks to figure on turf or dirt as well as she has been claimed in her last two starts. She likes this track and has never missed the board in six starts at the distance.

Sometimes you just have to stick with the favorite as 6-LARRY THE POET appears to be very tough in this spot. He battled with Tahoe Run last out before giving way at the top of the lane. Tahoe Run followed that victory up with a sharp allowance score last Sunday. On the class drop expect Larry the Poet to be in full control throughout. 1-GHOST BIKE ships in with some speed and the rail draw. He is the one that could rate the closest early to Larry the Poet and the recent bullet drill is a plus as well. 3-GOLD SMOKE could be a bit of a sleeper in here as he has some races around two turns that would  figure with this field. If the top two happen to hook up early, he may be poised to pounce in the lane.

Selections could go two different ways here, depending on scratches. If the field holds together as-is, I think 1-STOPSHOPPINGAMY gets the trip. She should be able to sit behind a likely contested pace of 5-FIRST KITTEN and 6-FIRST SQUADRON. In that case if both of those runners battle upfront, I expect Stopshoppingamy to run on by late. Now if 6-First Squadron scratches, as trainer Brian Cook also has 4-GO STORMIN GIRL entered, then I think the race is over and I will flip my top two as First Kitten should make an uncontested lead and never look back. 4-GO STORMIN GIRL was the unfortunate one last out as she ran a huge race after a poor break. She was full of run in the turn and won going away. She was taken down via questionable DQ and placed third but you can't discount her effort. Either way, she is likely running for a spot underneath but her chances do improve if her stablemate stays in.

Basing this solely off the forecast for rain and potential for this race to come off the turf. 10-DIALED INNA is going to be extremely tough if this race comes off the grass. She ran a big race on the dirt two starts back and looks to find more than enough pace to tuck behind and run on late. The barn has been exceptional this meet and Centeno appears to fit this horsee well. 4-JOURNEYIST looks to show speed on either surface. She has improved since the addition of Lasix and should be tough if the track comes up wet as well. 13-BERTRADA will need some help to draw in but figures to be a factor if this one comes off the turf as well. This will be a sizeable class hike but she has run well on the dirt this year and also stands to benefit from an off track.

2-GUN RUSH could be one of the best going horses on the grounds as he looks for his fifth straight win. He has speed and isn't afraid to take it to his competition. With the inside draw he figures to head for the top and try to wire this field. 5-JEFF THE LION was closing ground behind Gun Rush last out. He caught the quick pace to chase and was full of run late. The only question here is if he gets another heated battle upfront to close into. 9-PINEDALE ran a really nice race back in mid-May but hasn't been able to repeat that performance in his next two starts. He does have it in him though and also has shown the ability to run a big race on an off track.

1-JUDY’S MS OFFICER could be on track to make it two in a row. She had a near perfect trip in last, helped along by her “rabbit” stablemate and grabbed the lead it the stretch. She could get the same kind of strong pace ahead of her in this spot. 3-MISS MELODY could be the best of the speed. Her five wins are allowed in this non-winners of two because they came at the expense of easier rivals ($20k or less). She came up a little short in last, her Hawthorne debut, but she was making her first start in over three months. Figures to be much tougher today, especially if she can secure an easy lead. 2-IGGY BIGGS is an interesting runner. She’s taking blinkers off for this, her first start of the year, and she seemed to be a much better runner last year when she ran without them. A series of enticing drills should have her ready to run and the pace figures to set up well for her come-from-behind running style.

Wouldn’t say 6-SPECIALIZIN was a “lock” but she finished second in her two starts since she was claimed from a maiden special at Churchill  and fought for the lead much of the way in both races. This will be the first time that she runs with the benefit of a recent race under her. Think she’ll be at the top of her game. 1-MOMENT TO SHINE I fresh off her maiden victory. Interestingly, that win was scored on turf and I figured she was only in the race to make it go for stablemate Specializin. However, her debut race was in a tough Churchill contest and she finished third. Maybe she’s the better of the two. 7-BELPERRON makes her first start of the year off good works. It’s possible that she’ll need a race but she ran well to finish third the last time she came off a layoff. She’s been in some tough races and many she faced came back to win their next starts. Maybe it’s her turn. 

On or off the turf? That is the question. But I feel safe picking 6-COMMAND POINT. She’s fresh off a daylight win at this level and she beat many of these rivals in that contest. However, doubt if she’ll run if this race does get moved to the main track. If the race does get moved, 1-PRANCIPANTS could be tough and that could be the case even if this race does stay on. She beat top pick on the turf two races back, giving her three wins in a row, and she finished second to that rival in last. She won eight races, however, and only one of those races was on the lawn. 4-ON A TOUR was good here last year; this year not so much. However, she was claimed from her last two and her new barn does do well with their claims. Although she does have a pair of turf victories, think she would be better on the main track.

6-LARRY THE POET tired late in both races but both were against maiden specials. Drops into maiden claimers for the first time. We know he has the speed. At this level he might also have the staying power. 1-GHOST BIKE is another who always faced tougher. Displayed better than his normal speed in his last outing. Figures prominently in his local debut. 3-GOLD SMOKE shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s had more starts than the top pair combined. However, in his only previous venture into maiden claimers, he finished second in a race at this level and he went off as the favorite.

There are no “mortal locks” in horse racing but 5-FIRST KITTEN could represent what one might look like. She’s been victorious in six of her 11 local races, including last at this level, and seems to enjoy the speed advantage once again, though she has been able to score from right off the pace. The Brian Cook-trained pair of 4-GO STORMIN GIRL and 6-FIRST SQUADRON could have the best chance to upset. First Squadron might be the only one capable of softening First Kitten up with a speed duel while Go Stormin Girl will come running late and could benefit from a fast pace.

Guessing this race will come off the turf since the weatherman is predicting considerable rain…but we’ll see. 10-DIALED INNA was entered main track only. Her last two turf races were awful but she’s been in great form in main-track sprints. She’ll be charging late and has a great chance of getting there. 4-JOURNEYIST could be tough on either surface but she might be at her best on turf. She lost her last two turf starts by miniscule margins, a head and a nose. She just missed wiring the field in her lone dirt route, passed late by top pick and one other, but she was still only a neck back. 3-I’M BOX OFFICE was an impressive maiden turf winner in her lone start here. She wasn’t nearly as impressive in her first two starts last year but she seemed to mature well. Could earn her second straight victory. 2-CAT ROYALE could turn out to be the best of the speed.

Pretty open race as these starters usually are but landed on 5-WEST WARPATH. He was claimed a couple times at Turfway earlier this year but he’s done nothing but improve since getting claimed by this barn. Allowance winner of last should be perfectly placed behind the early speed. Can run by late. 3-TIMEHASCOME is the best of the speed and he’s been in terrific form for months. He finished in the money in his last eight; a streak that includes four wins and three seconds. Not sure any in here can keep up with him early and if he doesn’t face any early pressure, he’ll have plenty left to hold off the late runners. 10-SHACKLEFORD STRONG is another in good form. He won three of his last five and narrowly missed in the other. He might be the only one in here really capable of pressuring Timehascome but that kind of race could compromise his own chances.

There’s a good chance that 2-GUN RUSH will just say bye bye. He hadn’t shown a lot prior to getting here but he’s a perfect four-for-four ever since. He loves the front end and hasn’t wilted under pressure this meet. Can extend his current streak to five. 6-GITA’S LAD hasn’t been highly competitive since getting claimed by this barn but he was taking on tough allowance company. But, he’ll find the field somewhat easier today. He won a couple early in the meet when he faced runners similar to this. Seems to have to best chance to beat top choice. 5-JEFF THE LION hasn’t been getting a lot of respect at the windows but he’s been racing competitively against similar and he finished second to top pick last time out.