Handicapper Tips & Picks

Couple horses in this race move up on the TURF and offer value alternatives to the morning line favorites. That TURF Projection was given to #6 SHANGHAI EXPRESS racing over the main track and moved up on 6/27 with a TRAFFIC trip to finish third. #1 GOOD FOUR SHOES is an older mare though has shown progression with each start, TURF visuals and returns here off a BTL show finish on June 20th. 

#5 RED HOT JUSTICE is given a look off the debut as a whole and wheeling back in this spot with a live rider upgrade. She showed run despite the running line and finishing position making a WIDE MOVE after a SLOG and doing so X_FLOW. 

#1 LOUDER THAN WORDS was strong with the win last month, though finds herself stepping up in class today and in against open company and opens the door for value if she remains as the favorite. 

#8 NIGHT KISS turned in a competitive effort under similar conditions back on June 6th. She was compromised with the trip and distance on June 29th. The shift back to a flat mile can assist in this case and with a runner that holds some distance limitations. #10 WITS AND WAGERS also has shown some distance limitations at times, though capable at the two-turn mile when in the right group and she fits here. 

#5 JAZZY LADY gives up a lot of recency coming off the 428-day layoff though holds some of the stronger form in the field, that is tough to dismiss though still requires price compensation. 

Should this race come off the turf, #10 FORWHOMTHEBELLTOLL has had this same dirt-turf-dirt third off pattern in the past and showing both improvement and intent keying off that cycle. With that said, that was quite a long time ago and this one has struggled to get back to a win and with the layoff lines - though those factors should keep the number double digits especially with the recent running lines and finishing positions - races that given the task to DUEL look like fitness races. #6 GRAND IN BAY was looking for the main track entered MTO on 6/21 and that could be the intent here. He is stepping up off a win, though capable to hold his form in this spot and even take another step forward as he has yet to run back to a top this year. 

That was a freaky good effort from #9 SAKIC over the turf. The figure does not do the visuals justice, he dominated B+ OptixGRADE will see this one step up in class. 

The class DROP moves up both #5 UNBRIDLED DEVINE and #7 LUCKY LINDA W, but it also upgrades #6 E Z AVENUE at a big price in the race. While the others are more "obvious" E Z AVENUE had TROUBLE_S on debut and comes back from setting the pace (VF O4S flow upgrade) on May 31st, the day there was bad WEATHER and track conditions, the rest of the races were cancelled after her Race 5. 

#2 SUTTON'S PASS could also get severely overlooked as she makes a belated return. Going back to last year, she had TROUBLE on debut though all around visuals suggested she required the class drop to maiden claiming, something not provided to her before the abbreviated season. She did show progress race-to-race with improving figures and could show up with a top effort coming back for the new connections and first start as a three-year-old. 

There is too much going on in this race to try and handicap it efficiently before scratches and potential surface/switch. 

#7 J'S NAUGHTY BOY is upgraded on the TURF - a surface he projected to move up over and did so earning a B OptixGRADE on May 30th, the same surface/distance and class conditions to today.  #5 TOUR THE MOON has been more effective on the main track than his two turf starts last year. He has held his form at the N2 allowance company and BTL efforts, though must show more to get the win today. There are some similar class concerns with #11 HUMBLE WARRIOR in this spot though has some versatility and going out for a live barn factors on his side. 

#2 CASPER JUSTICE is lighter in this group to support on the contender side, though has some buried form including the TROUBLE trip last out to keep in the mix at a price. 

This is a competitive race and tough to find an edge for any in this field. Taking a short price is the real gamble as there should be value on the board. Even a horse like #8 THEDEVILSALGORITHM fits in this spot. His May 6th earned one of the strong figures in the field on recency (Past 3 Runlines) and that 6th place run was BTL given the X_WIDE trip making his outside MOVE. 

#1 ROTARY DIAL gets a look right back under similar N4 conditions coming back off a B OptixGRADE. #2 ZOLO also returns from the 6/17 race and had a subtle trip as the field BUNCHED up and was forced into that huddle with the inside post as part of the early pace along with #5 TURBO SIX O. #4 JEOPARDY THEORY was also part of that BUNCHED group and has form that makes him competitive, though most of those efforts were recorded on the turf and must prove he can translate those races to the main track. 

In addition to TURBO SIX O, the barn will retunr with #7 TOO BAD JUSTICE, one that will be tested for stamina, something he has come up short on in the past, though as far as class and speed figures, he stacks up strongly and also earned a B OptixGRADE at this level back on April 26th.

#6 KING SOCIAL could sneak away on the board and has some form that fits under today's conditions and could even present a move forward in his second start back this meet. 

#8 DEUTERONOMYSTRONG is one to follow and given an upgrade from the legit stumble coming out of the gate on July 16th. With that said, this might not be the right spot. Today's race is even a step up from that open starter allowance and both the class and distance today create less than ideal conditions here.