Handicapper Tips & Picks

This race is tough to assess given the change, the class rise for many to race at today’s $12.5k conditions. #3 SHADOW BELLE is the best suited running under similar conditions at HS Indy this season and finding class relief in this spot. Today’s OFR is similar, yet lower, to the N2X level she cleared back in April. Her RunStyle, current form and shift back to the main track/sprint distance fit in terms of intent on this circuit with the trainer (same owner) change.

Quad I Square, #2 MY LADY SLEW also finds class relief returning to the claiming level, overmatched against allowance company on the turf in her more recent starts. She was effective with the turf win on May 18^th, though earned a higher 79 OptixFIG (72 for the win) in her place finish sprinting on May 7th.

Many of the Spagnola runners have struggled to get the win this season and likely part of the reason for #2 MISTER CHARMING to DROP in class looking once again for the right level to compete for that top spot. Number wise he stacks up with many in this field and should suit today’s dynamic as far as trip. Looking at his running lines, he has shown to run from off the pace, though the class change today moves him up to a Quad II position and EP RunStyle. 

A case can be made for many in this field and there are as many question marks with many in this field as well.  #6 DREAM FLY could receive a lot of attention  in this coming off the layoff and for the connections. The higher speed figure earned at Kentucky Downs is tough to ignore and could be tough to beat running back to that number, however her other figures and coming up short at Belterra Park under softer Special Weight conditions create value concerns at the expected shorter price.

#1 PENUMBRAS MAKER fits just as logically and has the benefit of recency of the pair. She has the “tougher to trust” concerns given her overall race record, though has not been in as light class wise as she is today.

#3 THEMISCHIEVOUSONE was looking for the turf last season and had to settle for the main track sprint as the meet was winding down last December to get a start and make the debut. She has the benefit of recency and fitness coming back from the June 22^nd race, a race won by her stablemate I’m Box Office dominantly by open lengths.

Lightly raced runners move up in this spot. #2 SPICY ITALIAN will likely come down in price for the connections and especially with this race moved to the main track with the dirt experience on the circuit switch. Those factors could move her up and the barn has sent out live in a limited sample this meet. She must step up off the first two starts both off the figures and visually losing ground in both starts (open length even money winner on June 11^th) and physically on the smaller side. #5 WILDWOOD ENOUGH debuted in a compact field last month and dismissed off the 7-2 morning line. She broke SLOG, something not uncharacteristic for this barn with first time starters and showed some interest last. She is tough to back with confidence off that effort in this second start on the win end, though could present a move forward.

It is a shame #10 GUSTAVI is entered MTO as she gave off the TURF visuals back at Oaklawn Park and would have upgraded her on the surface and distance change. With this race run on the main track drawing into the field, she still fits given the debut 82 OptixFIG and B- OptixGRADE and some subtle excuse with the TACTIC- trip on April 22^nd.

Rivelli probably figured #6 GETTIN DOWN would be claimed when they dropped to the $6250k maiden level and seems logical in this spot as she remains with the barn. She picked up the maiden win on June 15^th in a dominant B+ OptixGRADE effort, a GRADE that suggests she can step up in class and her numbers stack up with the others in this field. Her former stablemate #5 LUNARCHY could present a threat as she also was able to score at the $6250k maiden level back on May 31^st earning a 71 OptixFIG one of the stronger numbers recorded in this group. She was claimed from that race and “protected” by Meraz running for the $25k tag on June 14^th and returns to a more reasonable claiming spot for her abilities here.

Looking to split the two seasoned mares, #4 BELLS OF JOY has not found the winners circle since her maiden win last May though has been competitive at today’s 5.5f distance. The distance could give her the slight edge over #7 SEQUAYA, one that could also be shorter coming back today off back-to-back place finishes and another that has not had her picture taken since the summer of 2020. 

Harty will show up here with #1 DEGREE OF RISK as he makes his first start back off a 161-day layoff. He has been entered a couple times in higher N1X allowance races since the February race earlier this year. He is a good race horse and one that has shown versatility in terms of surface, distance and carried his form track-to-track. He has run in some tougher spots, held his form, and not always intended in the races he was running in and those he was pointed to suffered “trips.”

In terms of the “local” group, #4 SIMPLE LOGIC seems the most “logical” however, his visuals and efforts this season are not much stronger than others in this field that should offer value and overlooked. #9 RUSSIAN HAMMER was a legit “longshot” in the Hawthorne Derby and no fault by the connections to take a short in that race. He was not on the level, though also compromised by a TRAFFIC trip and race dynamic with the race won gate-to-wire by Act A Fool uncontested on the lead. His allowance effort back on May 28^th gives him a look in this group, a BTL effort making a MOVE through TRAFFIC, a more competitive race than the 6^th place finish appears on paper. Class is light for #2 SON OF GRACE, though he could get a share with his RunStyle (Quad IV) picking up horses late with the “Sun” Contention and higher 56 SpeedRate.

Looking at OptixPLOT, #5 ARCH FLYER could hold a pace advantage in this race. That clear pace advantage shown on Surface/Distance does not appear as clear on paper and can only hold that Bendezu is assertive right from the start and letting her run right from the rip.

#3 RANK AND FILE started to show progress back on June 18^th when she went into the GATE without resistance, something that had been a pattern for her going back to March, the first part of the meet. She comes back from a B- OptixGRADE and good place finish behind “lone” winner, Foggy Kitten on June 28^th in a four horse field. #6 PALACE MAGIC was claimed for $5k back in May and since then the connections placed her overmatched in both allowance company and when in for the $25k tag. Her form has declined since that May 18^th win with some of that due to class, though must find a turnaround in this race and something to consider as she is assigned the morning line favorite role and does project to hold short on race day.

#7 HER GOLD MINE takes some creativity to get to and overall needs a lot of racing luck along with a top effort here to win. With that said, she has some buried form from her races this season and at the 6f distance. Giles will also take back over today and has had success aboard in the past keying off some in the money finishes in prior seasons. 

With another series of rain hitting last week, tough to see this race staying on the turf. Things are likely to change with that surface switch and many in this field stronger on the grass sprinting. #1 KEENESAW is one that probably prefers the grass, though has shown he can run on the dirt sprinting and his form should hold in this spot and capable of pairing wins. #8 MEDAL OF FACT also returns from the July 5^th event where he was intended and live with the surface switch and connections are likely looking for similar today. To back up the statement about intent, he took wagering support in all pools and up until post time going off a slight second choice and projects similar intent here. His trip (and primarily ride/TACTIC-) played against him right from the start acting up in the GATE and forced to check encountering TROUBLE multiple times in running playing a role in the outcome.

#3 FOLLOW THE SIGNS scratched from a main track race last Wednesday (7/12) to run in this spot instead and suggests intent for the connections reading the weather report, though would not dismiss this one getting back to the turf when that times comes.

#7 DRAGON DREW is another that prefers the turf and has been unlucky this season looking to get back to the grass. While his recent two main track races come up short number wise compared to the turf, some of that is due to race dynamic and the post position. The subtle shift to a more outer post benefits this runner on the main track.

#6 CLEAR N CONVINCING was a scratch when the races came off the turf under similar conditions looking to make his return on June 25^th. The distance with the expected shorter price given the connections, create some reservations with this individual giving up recency and a RunStyle from off the pace. 

This race is intriguing to open the card as there's a pair with speed and a couple of Indiana shippers. Went to 3- SHADOW BELLE with the thought that 2-MY LADY SLEW and 4-AWESOME SUNDAY have the potential to battle on the front end. The dirt starts at Indy were pretty solid and the ability to rate should put this one in a perfect spot today. 2-MY LADY SLEW has that good early speed but typically needs to get clear to win. We will see if she can beat Awesome Sunday to the top but if these two hook up it will become a battle to see who runs on in the lane. 4-AWESOME SUNDAY steps up on paper but really is a good fit in here. She dropped way down in her last as she got a confidence builder and won with ease. Now she starts to work her way back up the ladder and this is a logical step.

Now may be the right time for 1-POWERFUL MAN as he has shown some improved form recently and gets a rider change to Felix today. He has tactical speed and with the two outside runners potential to battle upfront, the ground saving trip and stalking style may benefit. 2-MISTER CHARMING may settle a bit further back early but he figures as well on the class drop. His best races have come here at Hawthorne and the weight off in the saddle should be a benefit as well. 4-KRAMDEN has shown improved recent form as well as he finds things a bit easier than he has seen of late. He will likely need that pace to chase as he should be picking off horses in the lane.

No clue what Mother Nature does but on turf or dirt, 1-PENUMBRAS MAKER figures to be tough. She is overdue for the maiden score as she has hit the board in seven of 13 lifetime starts but still searches for a win. She ran a big race in the slop in her last and might look to rate close as there's not a ton of pace in this race. 10-GUSTAVI only gets in if this one comes off the grass, but her two starts at Oaklawn were solid and she comes in off a recent bullet drill. This barn has had a fine meet and she will just need some pace to chase as well. 6-DREAM FLY makes her first start of the year and she ships in for trainer Wesley Ward. Her final speed figure of 2022 was strong and would be good enough to defeat these.

I do not like this race one bit. There's a large group of horses that could all contend for the lead and all of those same horses could give way if challenged. The two that a contested pace would set up for are a combined 2/69 lifetime, so to pick any horse with confidence is tough. For multi-race wagers I would suggest hitting the ALL button and guarantee you move on. With a chance at a price, I will select 2-SHINY SHOES with the hopes that she is ready off the layoff. She has consistent works, the ability to rate, and runs for a barn that is having a strong meet. She also has been away from the races for 7 months and could need a race. Let's see how things unfold in here. 7-SEQUAYA has run relatively well in her last couple, finishing second in both starts. She has a good work toward the return and the layoff may be beneficial. But 1/37 in the win column is tough to back on top. 4-BELLS OF JOY is the same way. She is 1/32 lifetime but also runs quite a few races to get into the money. Expect her to settle as well and run on late.

This race all comes down to if we are on the turf or not. If on, 1-DEGREE OF RISK should be very tough for a barn that always sends their runners well-intended as this one has been competitive in Southern California. He needs back to chase which could be supplied by 6-Freddy J as he will look to rally in the lane. 4-SIMPLE LOGIC battled last out but lacked a little bit of late finishing kick. He should get a good stalking trip once again as he will look to get the jump on Degree of Risk at the top of the lane. 2-SON OF GRACE has run some big races on the meet and figures in here with Tavares aboard. He's at his best on the grass but is another that will need some speed to close into.

Some may think the class drop for 6-PALACE MAGIC is a concern but it is back to the level of the claim. She ran a decent race in her last and figures to get a good stalking trip here. She may get claimed from this spot but if it comes off a victory then Chris Banks comes out ahead in the end. 5-ARCH FLYER has been solid in the last three starts. She has chased in all and just missed last out behind the speed of Helen Mae's Song. Look for a similar trip once again. 4-AUNT STELLA has some tactical speed as she may look to rate a bit closer in here today. The distance suits as Tavares picks up the mount.

Not in love with 2-MY LADY SLEW but she is dropping back in for a tag and she is moving back to dirt after two dull efforts against allowance foes on the turf. She seems slightly quicker than the rest of the field. Could grab a contested lead and last. 4-AWESOME SUNDAY broke her maiden here in December versus maiden specials and won her last start in a $6250 NW2. You would think she was meeting better rivals at this tougher condition and higher claiming price but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Wouldn’t be surprised if she won right back. 3-SHADOW BELLE turns back in distance and returns to the main track. She’s never shown a late move but with the turn back in distance her early speed could be dulled a bit but she might have something left for the finish. 

Don’t really know what will happen with 6-DREAM FLY. She finished second on dirt in her debut but raced exclusively on turf in limited starts in the last couple years. She is lightly race, however, and ships in to run so maybe they’ll try her on the main track. 10-GUSTAVI making her local debut as well as her first start for this barn, ran well in one of her two races at Oaklawn but she was facing tougher in both of those races than she meets here. Entered for main track only in this turf race, she’ll still be meeting most that have been racing on dirt but still figures to be among the best of them. 2-SPICY ITALIAN finished up the track in both of her races but she’s another shipping from a tougher circuit. Figures to show far more in her local debut. 

Somebody WILL win this race. I’ll try with 5-LUNARCHY. Her connections ambitiously tried to take on $25k claimers in her first start with them and that certainly didn’t work. Drops to what should be a far better level. Speed might last. 6-GETTING DOWN dominated bottom-level maidens in her last start. She’s probably the quickest member of this field. With an alert break she might take it all the way. 7-SEQUAYA is one for 37 but she does often finish in the money. Turns back in distance. Will be coming late. 

Plethora of speed in this race could sets things up for a closer. 10-MALIGATOR fits that description perfectly. In fact, he flew late to take last at this level in another race that was moved to the main track and the pace of this race could set up even better. 3-FOLLOW THE SIGNS and 1-KENNESAW will also be coming late. Both won their last starts. Both of those races were moved to the main track. Either or both can overtake top pick in the final stages. 9-GREELEY'S ICE has been better lately than he has in years. He’s certainly been quick. Not sure he’ll hold off the late runners but he could put away the rest of the speed.