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Sun July 16th, 2023 |
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Ron's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Not in love with 2-MY LADY SLEW but she is dropping back in for a tag and she is moving back to dirt after two dull efforts against allowance foes on the turf. She seems slightly quicker than the rest of the field. Could grab a contested lead and last. 4-AWESOME SUNDAY broke her maiden here in December versus maiden specials and won her last start in a $6250 NW2. You would think she was meeting better rivals at this tougher condition and higher claiming price but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Wouldn’t be surprised if she won right back. 3-SHADOW BELLE turns back in distance and returns to the main track. She’s never shown a late move but with the turn back in distance her early speed could be dulled a bit but she might have something left for the finish.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 2:57 PM CST
This is one of those races that anybody can win. I won’t usually pick a runner like 2-MISTER CHARMING. He won only three of his 56 starts. However, he’s always been in too deep. This is possibly the easiest field he has ever faced. Think he’ll be able to take them. 5-OPTION and 6-MITZRAYIM could vie for the early lead. Option seems more consistent while Mitzrayim hasn’t finished in the money in two years.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Don’t really know what will happen with 6-DREAM FLY. She finished second on dirt in her debut but raced exclusively on turf in limited starts in the last couple years. She is lightly race, however, and ships in to run so maybe they’ll try her on the main track. 10-GUSTAVI making her local debut as well as her first start for this barn, ran well in one of her two races at Oaklawn but she was facing tougher in both of those races than she meets here. Entered for main track only in this turf race, she’ll still be meeting most that have been racing on dirt but still figures to be among the best of them. 2-SPICY ITALIAN finished up the track in both of her races but she’s another shipping from a tougher circuit. Figures to show far more in her local debut.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Somebody WILL win this race. I’ll try with 5-LUNARCHY. Her connections ambitiously tried to take on $25k claimers in her first start with them and that certainly didn’t work. Drops to what should be a far better level. Speed might last. 6-GETTING DOWN dominated bottom-level maidens in her last start. She’s probably the quickest member of this field. With an alert break she might take it all the way. 7-SEQUAYA is one for 37 but she does often finish in the money. Turns back in distance. Will be coming late.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:18 PM CST
1-DEGREE OF RISK seems likely to dominate. Multiple stakes-placed runner hasn’t won for a while but this should be the confidence builder he needs, even though it’s on the main track. 7-COALMINER'S KITTEN finished fourth in last while making his dirt debut. His first six races were on synthetic surfaces. That race was at Keeneland. With the exception of top choice, this field in far easier. Could be tough.
5-MAN ON ATTACK had little chance on turf and might not have a great chance in this race but he’s quick from the gate and likely to get a fairly easy early lead. Who knows how long he’ll take it.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 4:45 PM CST
6-PALACE MAGIC drops back to reality. She was claimed from a field similar to this, which she won, back in May but her last two races were against allowance company and $25k claimers. At this level she figures to be pretty tough. 5-ARCH FLYER has been at the top of her game lately. She finished second in her last two after winning her third start back. She doesn’t have breakaway speed but she is one of the quicker members of this field and she has been able to sustain her speed throughout in recent races. 3-RANK AND FILE was a “head case” for much of the year and was a perfect example of “leaving her race in the gate”. But she has calmed down lately and has been far more competitive.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:12 PM CST
Plethora of speed in this race could sets things up for a closer. 10-MALIGATOR fits that description perfectly. In fact, he flew late to take last at this level in another race that was moved to the main track and the pace of this race could set up even better. 3-FOLLOW THE SIGNS and 1-KENNESAW will also be coming late. Both won their last starts. Both of those races were moved to the main track. Either or both can overtake top pick in the final stages. 9-GREELEY'S ICE has been better lately than he has in years. He’s certainly been quick. Not sure he’ll hold off the late runners but he could put away the rest of the speed.